Discussion of 2017 china economic survey by Vincent Koen (OECD)HKUST IEMS
This seminar discussed the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of China, which assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. The event was co-organized and discussed by The French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC), The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS).
For more information please visit: iems.ust.hk/cefc
The How’s Life? report (http://oe.cd/how-is-life) charts the promises and pitfalls for people’s well-being in 35 OECD countries and 6 partner countries. It presents the latest evidence from 50 indicators, covering both current well-being outcomes and resources for future well-being, and including changes since 2005. During this period there have been signs of progress, but gains in some aspects of life have been offset by losses elsewhere. This fourth edition highlights the many faces of inequality, showing that gaps in people’s achievements and opportunities extend right across the different dimensions of well-being. It exposes divisions according to age, gender, and education, and reveals pockets of inequality in all OECD countries. It also brings to light the many well-being disadvantages that migrants face in adapting to life abroad. Additionally, the report examines governance as seen from the citizen’s perspective, revealing gaps between public institutions and the people they serve. Finally, it provides a country-by-country perspective, pinpointing strengths, challenges and changes in well-being over time in 41 country profiles.
How’s Life? is part of the OECD Better Life Initiative, which features a range of studies and analysis about people’s well-being and how to measure it, and includes the interactive Better Life Index website.
Discussion of 2017 china economic survey by Vincent Koen (OECD)HKUST IEMS
This seminar discussed the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of China, which assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. The event was co-organized and discussed by The French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC), The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS).
For more information please visit: iems.ust.hk/cefc
The How’s Life? report (http://oe.cd/how-is-life) charts the promises and pitfalls for people’s well-being in 35 OECD countries and 6 partner countries. It presents the latest evidence from 50 indicators, covering both current well-being outcomes and resources for future well-being, and including changes since 2005. During this period there have been signs of progress, but gains in some aspects of life have been offset by losses elsewhere. This fourth edition highlights the many faces of inequality, showing that gaps in people’s achievements and opportunities extend right across the different dimensions of well-being. It exposes divisions according to age, gender, and education, and reveals pockets of inequality in all OECD countries. It also brings to light the many well-being disadvantages that migrants face in adapting to life abroad. Additionally, the report examines governance as seen from the citizen’s perspective, revealing gaps between public institutions and the people they serve. Finally, it provides a country-by-country perspective, pinpointing strengths, challenges and changes in well-being over time in 41 country profiles.
How’s Life? is part of the OECD Better Life Initiative, which features a range of studies and analysis about people’s well-being and how to measure it, and includes the interactive Better Life Index website.
socio economic dimensions of Nepal, population of Nepal and its projection, population density of Nepal , Age and sex structure in Nepal, Employee trends in Nepal,Labour Market issues
A comment on the Economic Policy Council 2017 report by professor emeritus Lars Jonung, former Chairman of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2012-2013.
Prof. Jonung gave his remarks at Finland's Economic Policy Council 2017 report launch seminar. Launch was held in Helsinki on 23rd January, 2018.
See also:
http://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/reports/report-2017/
This study examined the effect interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF), Bound Test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) were employed to examine the effect of impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The unit root test showed gross domestic product was 1(0) while interest rate, investment and gross capital formation were 1(1). The result of the Bound Test indicated long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables employed in the study. The result of the ARDL indicated that interest rate had negative effect on economic growth both in short run and long run. However, in the long run investment and gross capital formation were established to have positive effect on economic growth with gross capital formation being insignificant. It was concluded that interest rate has a macroeconomic tool is not effective in stimulating economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the level of interest rate should be adequately controlled for the purpose of stimulating economic growth without inflationary pressure. Finally, robust macroeconomic policies aimed at ensuring economic stability should be formulated in order to increase capital formation and attract investment in order to promote economic growth.
Presentation by professor Torben M. Andersen at Finland's Economic Policy Council 2017 report launch seminar. Launch was held in Helsinki on 23rd January, 2018.
See also:
http://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/reports/report-2017/
The presentation slides provide a superficial glimpse of the economics of Vietnam.
Please do conduct your own study too. This can only be used a reference and not all the information maybe correct
In the latest reports, Bangladesh GDP expanded 5.2 % in June 2020. Its GDP deflator (implicit price deflator) increased 4.5 % in June 2020. Bangladesh GDP Per Capita reached 1,970.0 USD in June 2020. Its Gross Savings Rate was measured at 30.1 % in June 2020. For Nominal GDP contributions, Investment accounted for 31.8 % in June 2020. Public Consumption accounted for 6.2 % in June 2020. Private Consumption accounted for 68.5 % in June 2020.
Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
socio economic dimensions of Nepal, population of Nepal and its projection, population density of Nepal , Age and sex structure in Nepal, Employee trends in Nepal,Labour Market issues
A comment on the Economic Policy Council 2017 report by professor emeritus Lars Jonung, former Chairman of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2012-2013.
Prof. Jonung gave his remarks at Finland's Economic Policy Council 2017 report launch seminar. Launch was held in Helsinki on 23rd January, 2018.
See also:
http://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/reports/report-2017/
This study examined the effect interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF), Bound Test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) were employed to examine the effect of impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The unit root test showed gross domestic product was 1(0) while interest rate, investment and gross capital formation were 1(1). The result of the Bound Test indicated long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables employed in the study. The result of the ARDL indicated that interest rate had negative effect on economic growth both in short run and long run. However, in the long run investment and gross capital formation were established to have positive effect on economic growth with gross capital formation being insignificant. It was concluded that interest rate has a macroeconomic tool is not effective in stimulating economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the level of interest rate should be adequately controlled for the purpose of stimulating economic growth without inflationary pressure. Finally, robust macroeconomic policies aimed at ensuring economic stability should be formulated in order to increase capital formation and attract investment in order to promote economic growth.
Presentation by professor Torben M. Andersen at Finland's Economic Policy Council 2017 report launch seminar. Launch was held in Helsinki on 23rd January, 2018.
See also:
http://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/reports/report-2017/
The presentation slides provide a superficial glimpse of the economics of Vietnam.
Please do conduct your own study too. This can only be used a reference and not all the information maybe correct
In the latest reports, Bangladesh GDP expanded 5.2 % in June 2020. Its GDP deflator (implicit price deflator) increased 4.5 % in June 2020. Bangladesh GDP Per Capita reached 1,970.0 USD in June 2020. Its Gross Savings Rate was measured at 30.1 % in June 2020. For Nominal GDP contributions, Investment accounted for 31.8 % in June 2020. Public Consumption accounted for 6.2 % in June 2020. Private Consumption accounted for 68.5 % in June 2020.
Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
This presentation was made by Hirotsugu OINOMIKADO, Japan, at the 13th Annual Meeting of OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 14-15 December 2017
While growth has picked up, more needs to be done for Japan to overcome two key challenges – a record high government debt ratio and an accelerating decline in its working-age
population.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
The outlook for the global economy is positive with broad-based growth resulting in world GDP surpassing US$80.0 trillion in 2018, for the first time. These insights from our expert analysts cover economy, finance and trade; cities; business dynamics; industrial; and natural resources.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the economy and infrastructure theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
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what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No. 232, May 2024
Achievements and Limitations of Income-Led Growth of the Moon Government in Korea
1. Achievements and Limitations of Income-Led
Growth of the Moon Government in Korea
Asian Political Economy Seminar
November 19, 2020
Kang-Kook Lee
Ritsumeikan University
2. Income-Led Growth of the Moon Government
• A new growth strategy to promote aggregate demand and growth
by increasing wage and household income in Korea
• Based on Post-Keynesian wage-led growth, and considering
specific reality of Korea
• Examining background and policies of income-led growth, and
evaluating growth, distribution and employment effects
• Income-led or wage-led part was successful but growth was not,
and limitations include rising real estate prices, de facto austerity in
2018, and others
• Need for upgrading income-led growth and political support for it
3. Wage-Led Growth and the Korean Economy
• Post-Keynesian wage-led growth argues that the higher wage share
promotes economic growth, demand-side growth theory
• Mainstream economics recognizes that AD affects AS and long-run
growth with hysteresis effects and endogenous technological adoption
(Yellen, 2016; Anzoategui et al., 2019; Cerra and Saxena, 2020)
• Serious inequality is harmful to economic growth, leading to inclusive
growth agenda
• Empirical studies of wage-led growth in Korea report that the Korean
economy is strongly wage-led after the 1997 crisis (Lee, 2017)
• But single-equation approach vs. system equation approach, and
other points for consideration
5. Background of Income-Led Growth in Korea
• The wage share falling and inequality rising, and growth stagnating along
with the structural changes of the economy, globalization and aging after
the 1997 crisis
• The growth of profit was the highest in the OECD, while real wage,
household income and consumption fell, resulting in stagnant demand and
growth
• A failure of the trickle down effect with deregulation and debt-led growth,
so a concern about a vicious circle of rising inequality and lower growth
• Wage-led growth of the ILO introduced to Democratic party around 2013,
and policy agenda of income-led growth as a growth theory of
progressives
• Not wage-led but Income-led growth, considering the Korean reality with
limited social welfare and the high share of self-employed
11. Gini Coefficient for Disposable Income in Korea compared
with OECD, Rather High Using New Statistics
Source: OECD, Statistics Korea
12. Also, the relative poverty rate, especially that of the elderly, is
high in Korea.
Source: OECD, Statistics Korea
13. The fertility rate is the lowest, while the suicide rate is
the highest in Korea
Source: OECD
14. Public social expenditure is just half of OECD average,
and the share of self-employed is very high
Source: OECD
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Public Social Expenditure out of GDP in
2018 (%)
15. Main Policy Tools for Income-Led Growth
• Income-led growth attempts to increase wage and household income, and
promote demand and growth
• Based three pillars of policy tools
• 1) Increasing household income
• Raising minimum wage (16.4% in 2018), job stabilization fund (3 trillion
won in 2018 and 2019), reducing card fee and rent, expanding EITC (from
1.2 trillion in 2018 to 3.8 trillion in 2019), etc.
• 2) Enlarging safety net and social welfare
• Expanding employment insurance (from mid- 2018), introducing and
expanding child allowance (0.7 trillion in 2018 to 2.1 trillion in 2019),raising
elderly pension (9.1 trillion in 2018 to 11.5 trillion and 13.2 trillion in 2019
and 2020), welfare budget increased by 12% in 2019
• 3) Reducing living cost: medical cost, childcare and housing cost, etc.
16. Minimum Wage Raise and Income-Led Growth
• The high share of low wage workers in Korea may justify rapid minimum wage
raise growth, 16.4% in 2018, 10.9% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020, but a hot
controversy
• The growth rate of minimum wage is statistically significantly associated with
the wage share, and maybe easier policy than tax raise and redistribution
• Job stabilization fund introduced, providing 9% of minimum wage for small
firms and self-employed with less than 30 workers, 3 trillion in 2018 and 2019,
and 2.1 trillion in 2020
• A concern about negative effects on rapid minimum wage raise on
employment and conflicts between the weak in economic stagnation with the
high share of small companies and self-employed
• The relative level of minimum wage higher than other countries, and the ratio
of the affected and that of workers receiving less than minimum wage
increasing
20. Internationally, the relative level of minimum wage is high, and
the share of workers affected by it and workers receiving less
than that rose rapidly
Source: OECD statistics, Minimum Wage Committee
21. Labor Market and Employment in 2018
• The effect of a mild minimum wage raise on employment is not significant
empirically (Allegretto et al., 2016; Card and Krueger, 2004)
• Mixed results for the effect of the minimum wage raise on employment in
2018, an ongoing debate to consider a trend across industries and
economic cycles (Kim and Lee, 2019 vs. Hwang, 2019)
• The increase in employment in 2018 was down to 97K but up to 300K in
2019, and the labor market is not bad considering the employment rate
though it fell for thirties and forties
• The fall in employment growth in 2018 was associated with rapid aging,
the manufacturing crisis, stagnant construction sector and the difficulty of
the self-employed after a fall of Chinese tourists
• There could have been a negative impact of the rapid minimum wage
raise in economic stagnation, and aggregate wage growth might be
harmful to some vulnerable sectors (macro vs. micro)
22. We need to consider both the population effect in 2018
Source: Statistics Korea
23. The employment rate in general was fine in 2019,
but that for forties fell
Source: Statistics Korea
25. Economic Growth after Income-Led Growth
• GDP growth falling recently (3.1% in 2017, 2.7% in 2018 and 2% in 2019):
the peak was mid-2017 and the economy stagnating after late 2018
• Growth rate was high in 2017 due to the semiconductor industry boom and
the construction boom in 2015-17, but facilities and construction investment
fell significantly after late 2018
• Possible effects of income-led growth on investment are not clear, but
should be analyzed further
• Exports fell in 2019 with the trade war and uncertainty in the global
economy, leading to a fall in investment and economic stagnation
• Private consumption was relatively better with the highest contribution in
2018, associated with the growth of wage and household income (main
channel of income-led growth)
• The gov’t started to make more efforts to promote corporate investment and
to stimulate the economy, away from income-led growth from 2019
28. The growth slowdown in 2018 was due to a fall in
investment, but the contribution of private
consumption was relatively large
Source: Bank of Korea
29. Income Distribution after Income-Led Growth
• Inequality fell in 2018 according to the official income distribution data of
SHFLC, with Gini coefficient 0.354 in 2017 to 0.345 in 2018, and the poverty
rate 17.3% in 2017 to 16.7% in 2018
• The quarterly data of HIES reports inequality rose in 2018, but HIES may be
problematic because of the big change in the sample and it is quarterly data
• Even in HIES, income of all workers’ households rose in 2018, while income of
poor and old non-workers’ households income fell significantly outside the
labor market
• Wage inequality and the share of low wage workers fell, and the wage share
and household consumption share rose after 2018, a success of ‘income-led’
or ‘wage-led’ part as it was expected
• The role of income redistribution increased, faced with rapid aging and
economic stagnation, but more efforts for raising taxes on high income groups
and assets, and expanding social welfare are called on
30. • Inequality fell in terms of the Gini
coefficient, the quintile income
ratio, and the poverty rate in 2018
according to SHFLC
• Both in market income and more in
disposable income
31. • HIES reports the increase in
inequality but income of all workers’
households rose in 2018
• Income of poor and non-workers’
households income fell significantly
(average age of bottom 20% non-
workers’ household was 68)
33. Wage growth was higher than productivity growth in
2018 and 2019, so that the wage share rose
Source: Ministry of Employment and Labor, Bank of Korea
34. The increase in the wage share after 2018 could be
associated with the increase in minimum wage, but
profit of the nonfinancial corporate sector fell
Source: Bank of Korea
35. Real Estate Market Boom and Policy
• Real estate prices, especially apartment prices in Seoul, went up after
2018, although construction investment and private credit fell
• Limitations of real estate policy: the government was hesitant about
raising property taxes, gave benefits such as tax cuts to house rental
business holding in 2017, and supply of houses in Seoul was limited
• Recently, a concern that ‘Jeonse’ (lump-sum housing lease) prices are
rising along with tight regulation on the housing lease contract
• National net wealth compared to national income rose after 2017 because
value of land and buildings rose due to the increase in real estate prices
• Piketty’s beta (capital-income ratio) is high internationally, so we should
restrain the increase in asset market prices and rent income, given high
asset concentration and inequality
36. • Apartment prices in Seoul rose rapidly after 2017, associated with speculative
demand and relatively limited supply and policy mistakes
• But construction investment and private credit growth were high in 2015-2017
along with deregulation in the former government, and they fell after 2018
Source: Bank of Korea, Kookmin Bank
37. Source: Lee and Yoon (2017), Bank of Korea
• The capital-income ratio (Piketty’s beta) is high internationally, and it rose
in the 2000s, and after 2018, the ratio rose again
• A concern about rising asset prices with high asset inequality
38. De Facto Fiscal Austerity in 2018
• The Korean government aimed at fiscal expansion, with the budget growth 7%
in 2018, and supplementary budget after 2017
• However, de facto fiscal austerity in 2018 because tax revenue was 25.4
trillion won (1.4% of GDP) more than expected: consolidated fiscal surplus
1.7% of GDP, and surplus was 1% of GDP more than the original budget
• In 2018, the SOC budget decreased by 14%, and the supplement budget was
small, different from 2016 and 2017, so the 2018 budget was austerity also in
terms of fiscal impulse index or cyclically adjusted primary balance
• The failure of fiscal policy in 2018 in macroeconomic management and
complementing income-led growth, due to conservative tax revenue estimation
and the lack of strong will for fiscal expansion
• The 2019 budget was more expansionary with 9.5% increase, but the
supplementary budget was not large, and fiscal soundness myth was strong
even if Korea’s fiscal space is very large and fiscal expansion is desirable
39. De facto Austerity As a Result of
Underestimation of Tax Revenue in 2018
Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance, IMF Fiscal Monitor
40. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance
• The government debt ratio fell in 2018 due to extra tax revenue
• It is expected to rise after 2020 along with fiscal expansion and aging
(44% in 2020 to 59% in 2024)
41. COVID-19 and Recession in 2020
• A successful response to COVID-19 and the growth rate in -1.9% (-5.8% for
advanced countries), and the fiscal deficit and government debt also small
• Four times of supplementary budget of 67 trillion won, 3.5% of GDP, including
consumption coupon, emergency cash, expanding employment safety net,
supporting self-employed, etc.
• Korean New Deal Plan: digital new deal (developing data infra, online
industry), green new deal (green infra, low carbon energy) and safety net
(employment safety net and investment in human) to spend 114 trillion won
create 1.9 million jobs by 2025
• More efforts to strengthen weak workers’ bargaining power and reduce
inequality are necessary, and plans to reduce carbon emission to realize net
zero by 2050 are not clear (Korea is the worst in responding to climate change)
• Fiscal stance is rather expansionary after 2020, with cyclically adjusted
primary balance deficit and the rising debt ratio
43. • Korea is much better than other
advanced countries in terms of
growth and government finance
in 2020
• Gross government debt ratio is
still low, and net deb ratio is even
lower
• Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor
44. Upgrading Income-Led Growth
• Short-run growth effect of income-led growth could be limited but it should
be understood as an effort to reduce inequality and structurally prevent
demand stagnation in the long run
• Income-led 2.0 is necessary with fiscal expansion, raising taxes and
expanding social welfare, and structural reform of the economy
• Efforts to reduce a gap between large companies and SMC, to reform the
dual labor market by strengthening vulnerable workers’ bargaining power,
and to repress vested right in the public
• New and active industrial policy for innovation including the Green New
Deal, together with promoting competition is necessary
• Conservatives insist deregulation to promote innovative growth, but more
equal and inclusive growth is helpful to innovation and long-run growth
(Lee, 2019)
45. The effective income tax rate for top 10-20% is still too low
Source: Calculated based on income tax data for 2017
46. Concluding Remarks
• The direction of income-led growth in the Moon
government was desirable but some limitations in reality
• Inequality fell and the wage share rose in 2018 and 2019,
so ‘wage-led’ or ‘income-led’ were successful but
economic growth was not yet
• A too rapid minimum wage raise, rising real estate prices,
austerity in 2018, limited efforts for income redistribution
and for the reform of the economic structure
• We need to upgrade income-led growth and introduce
more effective and realistic policy measures for equality-
led growth