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Inflation in the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic
Kang-Kook Lee, Jan. 2023
1. Rising inflation vs. policy rates
2. Debates on causes of inflation
(1) Too much aggregate demand vs. Team Transitory
. Too large fiscal stimulus leading to overheating and inflation by Summers and Blanchard in
early 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/larry-summers-biden-covid-stimulus/
. Summers continues to argue this point
Domash, A. and Summers, L. 2022. How Tight are US Labor Market? NBER Working Paper.
No. 29739
. At first, the Fed thought it would be transitory, mainly because of supply-side problems due to
the pandemic and war, supported by other economists
Powell, J. 2021. Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID. Jackson Hole Meeting
https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/8752/Powell_JH21.pdf
(3) Supply-side factors
. The Pandemic and lockdown of China leading to supply-side shock
. The Ukraine war leading to the increase in prices of natural gas, oil and food
. In the US, a fall of labor participation because of the pandemic and excessive retirement
. Some estimation
Shapiro, A. H. 2022. Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation. Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco Working Paper, 2022-18.
. Progressive macroeconomists mainly argue that current inflation is mainly due to supply-side
(4) Unbalanced recovery of consumption
. Fast recovery of the durable goods consumption with rising prices under supply-side shock vs.
slow recovery of service, but not falling price
Brainard, L. 2022. What Can We Learn from the Pandemic and the War about Supply Shocks,
Inflation, and Monetary Policy? 21st
BIS Annual Conference
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221128a.htm
3. How to reduce inflation
(1) Raising policy rate and necessary unemployment
. The Fed changed stance from mid-2022
Powell, J. 2022. Monetary Policy and Price Stability. Jackson Hole Meeting
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm
. They raised policy rates rapidly since then and continued it, but still somewhat hoping for soft
landing. Others emphasize that large unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation. The V/U
ratio shows that the labor market is very tight. High core inflation is due to this and the shock of
the gap of headline and core inflation transferred to core through wage and material cost. Also,
high inflation expectation matters. But a different argument on inflation expectation is there.
Domash, A. and Summers, L. 2022. A Labor Market View on the Risks of a US Hard Landing.
NBER Working Paper. No. 29910.
Ball et al., 2022. Understanding US Inflation During the COVID Era. BPEA conference.
Blanchard, O., et al. 2022. Bad News for the Fed from the Beveridge Space
Reis, R. 2022. The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here?
https://twitter.com/r2rsquared/status/1569704151323394056?lang=bg
. But others point to serious limitations of raising interest rates to control inflation such as no
effect on supply problems, time-lag, and problems of recession. Besides, there is an argument
that the V/U ratio is not important to wage growth but underemployment matters.
Storm, S. 2022. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War. INET Working Paper, No. 185.
Branchflower, D. G. et al., The Wage Curve After the Great Recession. NBER Working Paper
No. 30322.
(2) A wage-price spiral?
. Many including the Fed worry about the wage-price spiral like in the 1970s, but the evidence
for it is weak.
. Workers got weakened with a fall of trade union density, and decrease of COLA (cost of living
adjustment) clause in wage bargaining from 60% in the late 1970s to 20% in the mid-1990s.
Now most countries suffer from negative growth of real wages.
. In fact, the corporate profit increased rapidly with recent inflation while the growth of workers’
wages is less than inflation, leading to unequal distribution.
Boissay, F. et al., 2022. Are Major Advanced Economies on the Verge of a Wage-Price Spiral?
BIS Bulletin, No. 53.
IMF. 2022. Wage Dynamics Post-Covid-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks. Global Economic
Outlook, Oct. 2022.
Alvarez, J. et al., 2022. Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? IMF Working
Paper, WP/22/221.
Stiglitz, J. and Regmi, I. 2022. The Causes of and Reponses to Today’s Inflation. Roosevelt
Institute.
Bivens, J. 2022. Corporate Profits Have Contributed Disproportionately to Inflation: How
Should Policymakers Respond?
. Real wage growth in 2022 Q3
. The growth of nominal wage stagnating
. Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker
. Profit vs. wage in recent inflation
(3) Price control and distribution effects
. Maybe price controls or social coordination as alternatives
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-
we-use-it
Tucker, T. N. 2021. Price Controls: How the US Has Used Them and How They Can Help
Shape Industries. Roosevelt Institute
. Recently new attention to the aspect of distributional conflict is rising
https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1608967176232525824
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/opinion/inflation-economy.html
. There are growing studies on ‘inflation inequality’ that usually the poor have more damage
from inflation with different price increases of goods
Brainard, L. 2022. Variation in the Inflation Experiences of Households. 2022 Institute Research
Conference, Federal Bank of Minneapolis.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm
Jaravel, X. 2021. Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes and Policy Implications. Annual
Reviews, Vo. 13.
. Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” but in fact,
inflation is always everywhere an issue of distribution or classes.

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lee-infcovid2022.docx

  • 1. Inflation in the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic Kang-Kook Lee, Jan. 2023 1. Rising inflation vs. policy rates
  • 2. 2. Debates on causes of inflation (1) Too much aggregate demand vs. Team Transitory . Too large fiscal stimulus leading to overheating and inflation by Summers and Blanchard in early 2021 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/larry-summers-biden-covid-stimulus/ . Summers continues to argue this point
  • 3. Domash, A. and Summers, L. 2022. How Tight are US Labor Market? NBER Working Paper. No. 29739 . At first, the Fed thought it would be transitory, mainly because of supply-side problems due to the pandemic and war, supported by other economists Powell, J. 2021. Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID. Jackson Hole Meeting https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/8752/Powell_JH21.pdf
  • 4. (3) Supply-side factors . The Pandemic and lockdown of China leading to supply-side shock . The Ukraine war leading to the increase in prices of natural gas, oil and food . In the US, a fall of labor participation because of the pandemic and excessive retirement
  • 5. . Some estimation Shapiro, A. H. 2022. Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, 2022-18. . Progressive macroeconomists mainly argue that current inflation is mainly due to supply-side
  • 6. (4) Unbalanced recovery of consumption . Fast recovery of the durable goods consumption with rising prices under supply-side shock vs. slow recovery of service, but not falling price Brainard, L. 2022. What Can We Learn from the Pandemic and the War about Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy? 21st BIS Annual Conference https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221128a.htm 3. How to reduce inflation (1) Raising policy rate and necessary unemployment . The Fed changed stance from mid-2022 Powell, J. 2022. Monetary Policy and Price Stability. Jackson Hole Meeting https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm
  • 7. . They raised policy rates rapidly since then and continued it, but still somewhat hoping for soft landing. Others emphasize that large unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation. The V/U ratio shows that the labor market is very tight. High core inflation is due to this and the shock of the gap of headline and core inflation transferred to core through wage and material cost. Also, high inflation expectation matters. But a different argument on inflation expectation is there. Domash, A. and Summers, L. 2022. A Labor Market View on the Risks of a US Hard Landing. NBER Working Paper. No. 29910. Ball et al., 2022. Understanding US Inflation During the COVID Era. BPEA conference. Blanchard, O., et al. 2022. Bad News for the Fed from the Beveridge Space Reis, R. 2022. The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here? https://twitter.com/r2rsquared/status/1569704151323394056?lang=bg . But others point to serious limitations of raising interest rates to control inflation such as no effect on supply problems, time-lag, and problems of recession. Besides, there is an argument that the V/U ratio is not important to wage growth but underemployment matters. Storm, S. 2022. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War. INET Working Paper, No. 185.
  • 8. Branchflower, D. G. et al., The Wage Curve After the Great Recession. NBER Working Paper No. 30322. (2) A wage-price spiral? . Many including the Fed worry about the wage-price spiral like in the 1970s, but the evidence for it is weak. . Workers got weakened with a fall of trade union density, and decrease of COLA (cost of living adjustment) clause in wage bargaining from 60% in the late 1970s to 20% in the mid-1990s. Now most countries suffer from negative growth of real wages. . In fact, the corporate profit increased rapidly with recent inflation while the growth of workers’ wages is less than inflation, leading to unequal distribution. Boissay, F. et al., 2022. Are Major Advanced Economies on the Verge of a Wage-Price Spiral? BIS Bulletin, No. 53. IMF. 2022. Wage Dynamics Post-Covid-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks. Global Economic Outlook, Oct. 2022. Alvarez, J. et al., 2022. Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? IMF Working Paper, WP/22/221. Stiglitz, J. and Regmi, I. 2022. The Causes of and Reponses to Today’s Inflation. Roosevelt Institute. Bivens, J. 2022. Corporate Profits Have Contributed Disproportionately to Inflation: How Should Policymakers Respond?
  • 9. . Real wage growth in 2022 Q3 . The growth of nominal wage stagnating
  • 10. . Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker . Profit vs. wage in recent inflation
  • 11.
  • 12. (3) Price control and distribution effects . Maybe price controls or social coordination as alternatives https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time- we-use-it Tucker, T. N. 2021. Price Controls: How the US Has Used Them and How They Can Help Shape Industries. Roosevelt Institute . Recently new attention to the aspect of distributional conflict is rising https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1608967176232525824 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/opinion/inflation-economy.html . There are growing studies on ‘inflation inequality’ that usually the poor have more damage from inflation with different price increases of goods Brainard, L. 2022. Variation in the Inflation Experiences of Households. 2022 Institute Research Conference, Federal Bank of Minneapolis. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm Jaravel, X. 2021. Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes and Policy Implications. Annual Reviews, Vo. 13. . Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” but in fact, inflation is always everywhere an issue of distribution or classes.