A brief analysis to the Economic Survey-(2017-2018).

1. ECONOMIC SURVEY
2017-2018
PRESENTATION MADE BY:
MAHIMA RASTOGI

2. What is Economic survey
• The economic survey is a flagship document of the ministry of finance
which is released under the guidance of the chief economic advisor.
• It contains a detailed account of state of the economy, prospects and the
policy challenges. It carries sectoral overviews and the comments on
reform measures that are required.
• It is presented in both the houses of parliament during the budget
session.
• The economic survey presents all the developments and the
performance of the economy in the past twelve months.
• It also contains the projections done by the ministry of finance in
relation to the growth, GDP, inflation and many other economic factors.

3. Major Achievements
• The current government came up with two major reforms first being
demonetization and the second being GST which led to a slowdown in
the economy earlier but the economy emerged from the shadows of it.
• NPAs have become very difficult to handle due to which the twin
balance sheet problem has arisen. Decisive tackling of the same is a big
achievement for the economy.
• The launch of the Indian Bankruptcy code also has been a great initiative
which helped identifying many underlying NPAs
• There was an upgradation in the sovereign ratings upgrade and the ease
of doing business.

4. Policy Agenda for the year ahead
• Support agriculture
• Stabilize GST
• CompleteTwin Balance Sheet actions with 4 R’s: Recognition,
Resolution, Recapitalization and Reforms
• Privatize Air India
• Reduce macro economic pressures and the possibility of a 'sudden stall'
from rising oil prices and sharp correction in stock prices

5. Role of GST in the economy
• After looking at the previous GST registrants, this
year it was around 9.8 Million which was about
12% growth and buoyancy above the historical
experience.
• There has been a 50% increase in unique indirect
taxpayers under the GST compared with the pre-
GST system
• Similarly, there has been an addition (over and
above trend growth) of about 1.8 million in
individual income tax filers since November 2016

6. Temporary Decoupling
• From the first Quarter,2016 the Indian economy started decoupling in
comparison to other countries
• The major reasons for the same were:
i. Competitiveness impact due to demonetization and GST
ii. The exports fell drastically
iii.High interest rates lead to increase in an increase in demand and capital which lead to
strong exchange rates
iv.Increased oil prices

7. Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries
• After the historic high level of investment and saving rates in the mid
2000’s has been followed by a strong decline which is still going
• For any economy to grow there should be more of investment growth than
that of savings growth
• For India’s growth rate to be 8%-10% it should reverse its investment
slowdowns instead it should focus on bringing more and more investment
• Demonetization was a help to bring the saved money of households back
into circulation.
• Twin Balance Sheet related reforms is also a measure to boost the
investments in the economy

8. Gender and Son meta-Preference
• This Time the ministry of finance gave huge
importance to gender ratio in the society
• This could be seen by Ministry of finance’s initiative to
launch the economic survey in the color pink
• Son Meta preference is a new concept brought in. The
adverse sex ratio of females to males led to 63 million
“missing” women. But the meta-preference manifests
itself in fertility-stopping rules contingent on the sex
of the last child, which notionally creates “unwanted”
girls, estimated at about 21 million.
• Understanding the importance of its role, the
government has launched the Beti Bachao Beti
Padhao and Sukanya SamridhiYojana schemes

9. Feminisation of agri-sector
• The Survey has observed that the growing rural to urban migration by
men has led to ‘feminisation’ of the agriculture sector.
• There has been a substantial rise in the number of women in multiple
roles as cultivators, entrepreneurs, and labourers.
• The Survey has suggested this change should be taken advantage of by
providing women farmers with enhanced access to key resources such as
land, water, credit, technology and training.

10. Pendency of cases taking a toll on the economy
• The survey suggested that both the government and the judiciary
should come together in order to address the large pendency of cases
• It can be done by various actions like:
i. Expanding the judicial capacity in the lower courts in order to shift the burden
from the higher courts
ii. Expenditure in relation to modernization and digitalization should be
incorporated
iii. Prioritizing the stayed cases and imposing stricter timelines

11. Potential of the economy
• Due to the pause in the fiscal consolidation this may lead to a 3% macro
prudence or stability
• The additional 18 lakh direct tax base and 34 lakh indirect tax base would
improve transparency and revenue for the economy
• GST will throw up a data treasure trove
• The GDP can rise to 7%- 7.5%
• The banking reforms which will shrink the inviable banks and less lending to
private sector companies by public sector banks will lead to less NPAs
• Export growth could be greater
• Private investments will be boosted if Indian Bankruptcy code processes
progress correctly
• The rising stocks and interest rates can be both a story of risk and revival