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Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018

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Future of Autonomous Vehicles

With so much investment and tech development underway, many are asking where, how and when will we see self-driving cars, buses and trucks on the streets in earnest? A host of companies, cities and countries are competing and collaborating to move things forward – but is could be a decade or so before there is mass market traction. In addition, what about seaborne AV as well as drones, air-taxis and, maybe, pilotless planes?

Ahead of the launch of a detailed initial perspective in Shanghai in November this is a summary of 30 of the key issues that experts have already raised. As part of a major global open foresight programme we will be running 15 events around the world in the first half of 2019 exploring these and additional issues – building an informed, global view for all.

We have many key locations already defined, but if you are interested in hosting or co-hosting one of these events, do let us know and we can include as we work on the overall schedule. As with all our projects (e.g. www.futureofpatientdata.org) we will share all insights from each location and publish a global synthesis.

For more details contact tim.jones@futureagenda.org

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Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018

  1. 1. The Future of Autonomous Vehicles An Initial View for Global Debate and Challenge 8 October 2018
  2. 2. Project Scope This project is identifying where and what are the key opportunities for AV, as well as the pivotal drivers of change across a number of major locations. Review existing research Map the emerging landscape Explore gaps via global dialogue Identify the key priority opportunities Prepare global synthesis Support hosts with core implications THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World
  3. 3. Initial Perspective An initial view on some of the key options and challenges ahead has been prepared. This is the starting point of the global dialogue. Key Questions Include: • Where will be the key hot-spots for AV development and deployment? • Where is advanced regulation most likely to act as a catalyst for AV deployment? • What level of safety (crashes) is acceptable for the full launch of AV in the next decade? • Will AV increase or decrease total traffic flow and congestion? • Will automated mobility services replace, reduce or extend the reach of public transport? • Of all the technologies in the mix, which are in greatest need of further development before the benefits of AV can be realised? • What are the distinct benefits from AV that are not already coming from current and future- connected ADAS? • How important will international standards and commonly shared technologies be for AV adoption? • Which will be the pivotal organisations, cities and governments that control adoption rates? • Who will lead on integrating all the varied systems needed to enable AV to operate? • Who will customers trust most to deliver a safe, reliable and comfortable AV experience?
  4. 4. Time to Full Conversion Despite growing investment and technology availability, it is going to take time to change the whole vehicle fleet - maybe up to 25 to 30 years.
  5. 5. Multiple Benefits AV will eliminate congestion, reduce injuries, free time, reduce energy consumption, improve air quality, drive social inclusion and create new jobs.
  6. 6. Controlled Environments While controlled environments have demonstrated some early steps for AV, there are more complex challenges to be addressed on the open road.
  7. 7. Rethinking Planning For AV to get real traction it may be necessary to turn transport planning on its head and for cities to deliver new visions which in turn will drive demand.
  8. 8. Connected vs. Autonomous Vehicles Connectivity and autonomy are complementary technologies but connected vehicles are not necessarily autonomous nor are AVs inevitably connected.
  9. 9. Alternative Sources of Safety Benefits Many advocating AV claim huge safety benefits, but the majority of these benefits may well come from ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems).
  10. 10. Non-safety Benefits Many of non-safety benefits from AV will come from reducing the cost of travel and saving time due to significant drops in congestion.
  11. 11. Resistance to Sharing As many people enjoy their personal space, some see that public interest in a significant rise in sharing vehicles may not be as high as expected.
  12. 12. People vs. Goods The use of AV to move people could scale in parallel with the movement of goods - and not follow in their wake as was previously thought.
  13. 13. Support for Platooning There is no real opposition to level 1 truck automation and regulators are supportive of platooning since it offers societal as well as business benefits.
  14. 14. Full Truck Automation The significant automation (level 4) of highway trucks is of huge commercial interest to the freight community and will transform long-haul journeys.
  15. 15. First and Last Mile Improving the inefficient ‘first mile’ and ‘last mile’ is a major opportunity for innovation with multiple health, energy and efficiency benefits.
  16. 16. Mobility as a Service Mobility will be delivered as a service that will not only increase vehicle utilisation but correspondingly also reduce the cost-per-mile.
  17. 17. Cost of AVs Personal AVs will cost more than human-operated vehicles, but access to a shared AV will be cheaper than today’s ride-hailing and taxi services.
  18. 18. Fleet Deployment Many initial deployments of the ‘fleet’ phase of AVs will focus on city streets where speed and therefore risk is lower than elsewhere.
  19. 19. Support for the Fleet Model Fleet is increasingly seen as the way forward for passenger vehicles and could change both travel patterns and car ownership decisions.
  20. 20. Public Transport Solutions The operational design of autonomous buses will not cover all current service areas, so robo-taxis will have to fill transportation gaps.
  21. 21. Inadequate Harmonisation Poor coordination between transit systems, urban planning and little planning of long-term transit solutions may delay the benefits of AVs.
  22. 22. Who we Trust Most of us will prefer to trust traditional car brands more than big-tech to deliver a safe, reliable and comfortable AV experience.
  23. 23. Initial Users AV will have greatest appeal for those without access to affordable mobility or who are uncomfortable about driving - the young, old and disabled.
  24. 24. Seaborne AV Ambition The maritime industry’s goal is not removing humans from decision-making processes completely but to eliminate the need for crew on board vessels.
  25. 25. Confidence in Seaborne AV With rapidly advancing technologies and compelling investment cases, the trajectory for seaborne AVs is more predictable than others.
  26. 26. Military UAV Remit The limiting factor for autonomous weapons is not the technology but the political will to produce, or admit to having, such capabilities.
  27. 27. Air Traffic for Drones Drones do not have the same level of collision avoidance systems as planes, so need a flight control network able to self-manage UAV air routing.
  28. 28. Access to Air-Taxis Although initially only for the wealthy, as they evolve air taxis could compete with ground transport as a more flexible option for personal mobility.
  29. 29. Pilotless Planes Pilotless passenger flights are a natural progression as planes already fly on autopilot and airports are equipped for fully automated take-off / landing.
  30. 30. Impact of Regulation The regions that gain most initially will be those where there is advanced regulation to act as a catalyst for AV deployment.
  31. 31. Common Standards International standards and commonly-shared technologies will be essential for driving global rather than regional AV adoption.
  32. 32. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda

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