Session I Models simulating spread of disease between animals, properties or countries have been used for decades in veterinary science. A disease transmission model is a simplification of the real world, build with the purpose of exploring and understanding the system, typically by answering “what-if” questions. Models are useful for evaluating scenarios that are difficult or impossible to carry out in real life due to e.g. economic or ethical constraints. Especially after and during the large epidemics of classical swine fever (CSF) in the Netherlands in 1997 and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom in 2001 and 2007, simulation models were used in veterinary contingency to investigate the efficiency of alternative control strategies. However, models should preferably be built and used in “peace-time”; though it is highly likely that risk managers will ask additional questions, requiring new model runs and model features, during an epidemic. Additionally, to compare control strategies, models can be used to investigate zone sizes, surveillance strategies, resource constraints and bottlenecks in the system.

1. EuFMD
OS22
New technologies to assist
timely decision-making in a
response and the use of
modelling to support
contingency planning
Anette Ella Boklund, DVM, Ph.D.
Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences,
University of Copenhagen (UCPH)

2. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 2
What are models?
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

3. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency
Scopus search on ”foot-and-mouth disease” & ”modelling”
3
CSF
in NL
FMD
in UK
FMD
in UK
16 MB RAM 8 GB RAM
500 x

4. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency
4
Modelling
4
25/11/2022 4

5. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 5

6. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
What are models?
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

7. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
What are models?
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

8. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
What are models?
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency
Distance moved between pig production farms

9. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency
Transport vehicle
Infected herd
Movements of pigs
Person contacts
Neighbouring herd
Semen
Semen
Abattoir
What are models?
Distance moved between pig
production farms

10. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency
Transport vehicle
Infected herd
Movements of pigs
Person contacts
Neighbouring herd
Semen
Semen
Abattoir
Simulation models
Danish contingency
- probability to detect disease
- probability of compliance
- probability of reporting contacts
DO NOT
ENTER
CAUTION
Herd-data
ID-numbers
Numbers of animals
Coordinates
Herd-types
Data related to FMD
- incubation period
- time to clinical signs
- spread time within herd
Movement data
- movements of live animals
- movements to slaughter
- milk tankers
- distances

11. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Outcome from models...
11
Halasa et al., 2019.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020;00:
1–12., DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13500
#culled animals Economic costs
Grey = 2006 data
White = 2018 data
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

12. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Outcome from models...
12
Halasa et al., 2019.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020;00:
1–12., DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13500
#culled animals Economic costs
Grey = 2006 data
White = 2018 data
2006/2007 data:
• Pre-emptive culling of neighboring farms (Depop) was optimal
(economics)
2018 data:
• Epidemics starting in cattle: Depop optimal
• Epidemics starting in pig or sheep/goats: Basic ~ Depop
Regular assessments are needed
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

13. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
How to use models in contingency
13
Epidemic curve Resources Vaccination
Surveillance
Surveillance - queue
Marschik et al., 2021.
Front. Vet. Sci.,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2
020.594753
Animal movements
Indirect contacts
Local spread
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

14. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
How to use models in continguency - resources
14
Boklund et al., 2017.
Front. Vet. Sci.,
doi:
10.3389/fvets.2017.00064
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

15. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
How to use models in continguency - resources
15
Boklund et al., 2017.
Front. Vet. Sci.,
doi:
10.3389/fvets.2017.00064
• Personnel resources peak within the first week
• Time needed for surveillance visits - most influential factor
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

16. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
How to use models in continguency – lab capacity
16
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

17. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
New technologies to assist timely decision-making
● “a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of
potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand”
(OECD, n.d.a).
17
Horizon scanning
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

18. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
New technologies to assist timely decision-making
Generic risk assessment tools
18
Entry Exposure First infection Establishment Epidemiological cons. Economic cons.
SPARE RRAT
SVARRA MINTRISK
TOOL Semi-quantitative tool
TOOL
TOOL Qualitative tool
Quantitative tool
Conclusions on the ASF risk:
similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

19. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
New technologies to assist timely decision-making
Generic risk assessment tools
19
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

20. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
New technologies to assist timely decision-making
New technologies include also
● Artificial intelligence
● Big data
● Machine learning
● Automated data access and
management
● Etc...
20
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

21. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
New technologies to assist timely decision-making in a
response and the use of modelling to support contingency
planning
● “to assist timely decision-making”
○ Is NOT building the bridges while we are crossing!
● Data quality is important
○ Garbage in = garbage out
21
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

22. #OS22
Conclusion
Presenter name
Short title for presentation
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

23. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 23
● Models should be build in
peace-time
● Automated data acces and
management
● Collaboration with other
sciences is needed
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

24. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 24
● Data quality is important!
● There will be failures
● Time, money and man-
power is needed!
Anette Ella Boklund
Modelling to support continguency

25. Thank you !..
https://ivh.ku.dk/
anebo@sund.ku.dk