9/4/2015 Assignment Print View http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 1/8 1. Award: 25 out of 25.00 points Score: 100/100 Points 100 % Problem 3-2 National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a sevenmonth period were as follows: Month Sales (000)Units Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) A linear trend equation. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Yt 20.86 thousands (2) A fivemonth moving average. Moving average 19 thousands (3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19(000). (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast 19.26 thousands (4) The naive approach. Naive approach 20 thousands (5) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) 9/4/2015 Assignment Print View http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 2/8 Weighted average 20.40 thousands References Worksheet Learning Objective: 0307 Use a naive method to make a forecast. Learning Objective: 0310 Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast. Problem 32 Learning Objective: 0308 Prepare a moving average forecast. Problem 3-2 National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a sevenmonth period were as follows: Month Sales (000)Units Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) A linear trend equation. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Yt 20.86 ± 0.10 thousands (2) A fivemonth moving average. Moving average 19 thousands (3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19(000). (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast 19.26 ± 0.10 thousands 9/4/2015 Assignment Print View http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 3/8 2. Award: 25 out of 25.00 points (4) The naive approach. Naive approach 20 thousands (5) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Weighted average 20.40 ± 0.01 thousands Explanation: b. (1) t Y tY 1 19 19 2 18 36 3 15 45 4 20 80 5 18 90 6 22 132 7 20 140 28 132 542 with n = 7, Σt = 28, Σt2 = 140 b = nΣty − ΣtΣy = 7(542) − 28(132) = .50 nΣt2 − (Σt)2 7(140) − 28(28) a = Σy − bΣt = 132 − .50(28) = 16.86 n 7 For Sept., t = 8, and Yt = 16.86 + .50(8) = 20.86 (000) (2) MA5 = 15 + 20 + 18 + 22 + 20 = 195 (3) Month Forecast = F(old) + .20 [Act.