1. www.gwpcee.org
Policy oriented study on
remote sensing agricultural
drought monitoring methods
Prof. János Tamás

2. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20152 www.gwpcee.org
Activity leader: Prof János Tamás
Partners:
• Hungary (University of Debrecen and GWP HU):
• Applied hydrological remote sensing and GIS;
• Spatial Decision Supporting Systems
• Romania (University of Oradea):
• Geography and Integrated watershed management
• Slovakia (Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences):
• Agricultural water management, Soil hydrology
Duration: July 2013 – January 2015
Main objectives:
• RS and GIS based Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss Forecasting Method for the
important crops and fruits (wheat, corn and apple)
• Integration of Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss Forecasting Method (ADMYLFM) to
agricultural drought management
Basic information

3. Objectives
• To develop a process, which can provide information for
estimating relevant drought indexes and drought related
agricultural yield losses more effectively from remote sensed
spectral data.
• New calculation method, which provides early information on
physical implementation of drought risk levels
• Allow the conversion of different purpose drought indices, such as
meteorological, agricultural and hydrological ones, and more water-
saving agricultural land use alternatives

4. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20154 www.gwpcee.org
Implementation process
NDVI
Time
Series
Land
use
mask
Calibration with
yield statistical
data
Meteorological
Data
Calibration with
Drought Index
Soil Physical
Data
Calibration with
available water
content
SDSS
Classification
Plant Specific
Drought Risk
Evaluation
(1 – 5 risk levels)
• Data acquisition and
processing
• Identification and
calibration of biomass data
and drought risk levels
• Drought risk evaluation
and mapping

5. Identification and calibration of drought risk level
(Source: KSH and INSSE)
Green: optimal
(wet) years
Red: drought
affected years
Blue: extreme
precipitation
Normalized yield of maize and wheat (2000-2012)

6. Identification and calibration of drought risk level
Drought risk and signalling NDVI levels for maize and wheat

7. Drought risk evaluation and mapping
IWA 13th International Specialised Conference on Watershed and River Basin Management - San Francisco, CA, USA , 9-12 Sept 2014. 7
2008

8. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20158 www.gwpcee.org
1. Remote sensing toolbox for drought monitoring
mapping and yield loss
2. Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss
Forecasting Method includes five standard remote
sensing based drought risk (threshold) levels.
3. The economic effect of yield loss on price
4. Integration of our method to drought
management
Final outputs

9. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20159 www.gwpcee.org
Outcomes
• Capacity building “Training for trainers” meeting in Szarvas, Hungary,
21-23. November 2013.
• TV reports
• National consultancy dialogues, Budapes, Hungary
• IWA 13th International Specialised Conference on Watershed and
River Basin Management - San Francisco, CA, USA , 9-12 Sept 2014
• World Conference on Computers in Agriculture and Natural
Resources, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica, July 27th-
30th, 2014
• European Geoscience Union General Assembly, 12-17 April 2015
Follow up outcomes:
• 14th International Conference on Environmental Science and
Technology (CEST2015), 3-5 September 2015, Rhodes, Greece
• Hungarian Hydrologist Council, Szombathely, Hungary 1-3. July 2015.

10. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201510 www.gwpcee.org
• The yield loss of wheat and maize can be predicted 6-12 weeks before
harvest and drought effected sites can be delineated more accurately.
• The impact of agriculture drought on can be diagnosed, which is the most
vital need for stakeholders.
• Facilitates drought intervention activities (Hungarian Cathastrope
Authority, Agricultural Ministry, Farmer Chambers))
• A new drought related soil moisture regime in GIS database (Tisza
watershed) to optimize water governance
Added value

11. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201511 www.gwpcee.org
 Our method is extendable for other IDMP CEE countries.
 In contrast with the conventional agricultural drought indexing
methods, the expected yield loss can be estimated with 250*250 m
spatial resolution based on remote sensing data .
 The monitoring of drought through the possible yield loss of a
specified crop is not appropriate with low spatial resolution
datasets, such as fAPAR.
 Better spatial resolution with time filtered series, provides smaller
data oscillation and more homogenous changes of NDVI in pixel
scale.
Lessons learned and transferability

12. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201512 www.gwpcee.org
The results of 5.5 activities can be strongly link with the
follow up proposal (1-2-3-5) !
Further follow up recommendations:
• Extension of the monitoring method and risk signaling
system for other crop types and/or new satellite mission
(CMOS, PROBE-V) based on TSA image processing
• Developing of better spatial /temporal irrigation strategy
• Interactive web-RS based drought risk and yield loss
mapping
• Investigation of the multilateral economic effect of yield
losses within and outside CEE region
Follow up

13. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201513 www.gwpcee.org
Thank you!
tamas@agr.unideb.hu