IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.6 by Dumitru Drumea

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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.6 by Dumitru Drumea

  1. 1. Activity title: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of Ukraine and Moldova Activity number 5.6 Activity Leader: Tatiana Adamenko - Ukraine Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014
  2. 2. Partners & Outputs • Who are partners in this activity: MD: Soil Research Institute + CWP-Moldova UA: UkrHydroMetCentr, CWP-UA, State Agency of WR Expected main final output(s) of your activity? • A review of agro-climate zoning (map) UA + joint MD-UA Dniester RBA based on analysis of Cl CH trends and soils’ water holding capacities: analysis of long-term uninterrupted monitoring data -UA + 2 case-studies of soil moisture content in agro lands & reference areas -MD. • development of monitoring system by introduction of EU indexes/approaches. • Updating forecast models for possible crop yield losses due to Ds for 3 main crops • Stakeholders awareness raising on new zoning and best practices in agro- droghts management
  3. 3. • What has been done (October 2013 – April 2014)? Collection, analysis of long-term uninterrupted data on water holding capacities of different type of soils of 136 HM stations in agro-active territories UA - Dniester RA ( UA). Recommendations for Farmers. • In Moldova the research of 2 case areas in Dniester river basin and data, collected by 7 hydromet stations. Collected materials for recommendations for farmers on moisture conservation. • At what stage of the final output(s) are you now? Preparing for mapping of new zoning MD-UA. • What were the main problems? How did you solve them? Lack of UA–MD coordination and different approaches for pilots. • Have there been any changes from the original plan? Why? No Progress Report
  4. 4. the Dniester River Basin Striy meteorological station - Lvovskaya oblast 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 Normal 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Soilmoisture,mm A trend on soil moisture reduction in May by 10-20% during 1991-2010 was shown based on uninterrupted observation data analysis of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture data for period 1961-2010. This can be explained by decreasing of average precipitation on 4- 10% compare with norm and increasing temperature above normal on 0,6-0,8 º C during this period. Sampling Data are May 20 and June 20 as critical for grain crops formation.
  5. 5. -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 abnormalyearlyprecipitation,mm 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 soilmoisture,mm Abnormal precipitation and soil moisture data of continuous observations in Ukraine. 1961 -2010
  6. 6. • What are the plans for April – October 2014? • Map of new zoning/ drought risks areas, EU indexes using, Modelling for forecast upgrading UA, good practices on soil W resilience introduction -MD • What kind of challenges/problems do you expect? New forecast model development needs more resources –UA. Minimize task Existed data allow preparing a model for Moldova, but existed monitoring system on moisture needs further development in – MD? • Will there by any change from the original plan? Why? Plans

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