Groundwater Management in Pakistan, by Dr Asad Sarwar Qureshi, IWMI PakistanGlobal Water Partnership
Groundwater is an important source of water in Pakistan, supplying over 57.9 BCM annually which is 40% of total water usage. It has led to increased crop yields and incomes but is now being overexploited in many areas. Over 1.2 million irrigation pumps extract groundwater, with depletion rates of 1.5 m/year on average. This poses many challenges including water quality deterioration, soil salinization, and non-compliance with water laws. Sustainable groundwater management is complex and requires solutions like improved surface water supplies and storage, rationalized cropping, increased use of alternative waters, and context-specific approaches depending on groundwater conditions. Climate change impacts will exacerbate water shortages unless urgent
Drop in groundwater levels is threat to pakistan's survivalShujaul Mulk Khan
Pakistan’s water resources are rapidly depleting because of climate change, posing a formidable threat to the country’s future, ecologists warn.
http://www.newslens.pk/pakistan-fast-depleting-water-resources-pose-serious-threat-country-survival-2/
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, contributing 21% to GDP. However, Pakistan faces increasing water scarcity issues as per capita water availability has declined by 77% since 1950. The country relies heavily on irrigation, with 75% of cultivated land being irrigated. However, the irrigation system faces numerous problems like water theft, poor maintenance, and low efficiency. Future water availability is projected to further decline unless immediate steps are taken to optimize water usage and develop new supplies.
This document discusses various techniques for artificial groundwater recharge. It begins by defining groundwater and artificial recharge. There are direct surface methods like percolation tanks, flooding, stream augmentation, and ditch and furrow systems. Direct subsurface methods include recharge wells, dug wells, and pits and shafts. Indirect methods are induced recharge and aquifer modification. Aquifer modification techniques aim to increase the water storage and flow capacity of aquifers through actions like bore blasting, hydro-fracturing, grouting, and stream blasting. Artificial recharge has benefits like enhancing water supplies, improving water quality, and preventing issues like saline intrusion and land subsidence.
Controlling Water On Construction SitesMartin Preene
This document discusses controlling groundwater on construction sites. It provides examples of good and poor groundwater control. It also discusses managing surface water runoff and using techniques like cutoff walls, sump pumping, wellpoints and deepwells to control groundwater. The document notes potential environmental impacts of water management like settlement, pollution of aquifers or surface waters. With proper planning and design, the document concludes that projects can effectively manage surface and groundwater issues.
GROUND WATER RECHARGE TECHNIQUES BY CH.APPARAO (Research Associate, ARS, ATP)Apparao Chodisetti
Ground water recharge is the process whereby the amount of water present in or flowing through the interstices of the sub-soil increases by natural or artificial means. Rainfall is the principal source for replenishment of recharge of ground water. Other sources include recharge from rivers, streams, irrigation water etc. An unconfined aquifer is recharged directly by local rainfall, rivers, and lakes, and the rate of recharge will be influenced by the permeability of overlying rocks and soils. A confined aquifer, on the other hand, is characterized by an overlying bed that is impermeable, and local rainfall does not influence the aquifer. It is normally recharged from lakes, rivers, and rainfall that may occur at distances ranging from a few kilometers to thousands of kilometers.
Groundwater Management in Pakistan, by Dr Asad Sarwar Qureshi, IWMI PakistanGlobal Water Partnership
Groundwater is an important source of water in Pakistan, supplying over 57.9 BCM annually which is 40% of total water usage. It has led to increased crop yields and incomes but is now being overexploited in many areas. Over 1.2 million irrigation pumps extract groundwater, with depletion rates of 1.5 m/year on average. This poses many challenges including water quality deterioration, soil salinization, and non-compliance with water laws. Sustainable groundwater management is complex and requires solutions like improved surface water supplies and storage, rationalized cropping, increased use of alternative waters, and context-specific approaches depending on groundwater conditions. Climate change impacts will exacerbate water shortages unless urgent
Drop in groundwater levels is threat to pakistan's survivalShujaul Mulk Khan
Pakistan’s water resources are rapidly depleting because of climate change, posing a formidable threat to the country’s future, ecologists warn.
http://www.newslens.pk/pakistan-fast-depleting-water-resources-pose-serious-threat-country-survival-2/
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, contributing 21% to GDP. However, Pakistan faces increasing water scarcity issues as per capita water availability has declined by 77% since 1950. The country relies heavily on irrigation, with 75% of cultivated land being irrigated. However, the irrigation system faces numerous problems like water theft, poor maintenance, and low efficiency. Future water availability is projected to further decline unless immediate steps are taken to optimize water usage and develop new supplies.
This document discusses various techniques for artificial groundwater recharge. It begins by defining groundwater and artificial recharge. There are direct surface methods like percolation tanks, flooding, stream augmentation, and ditch and furrow systems. Direct subsurface methods include recharge wells, dug wells, and pits and shafts. Indirect methods are induced recharge and aquifer modification. Aquifer modification techniques aim to increase the water storage and flow capacity of aquifers through actions like bore blasting, hydro-fracturing, grouting, and stream blasting. Artificial recharge has benefits like enhancing water supplies, improving water quality, and preventing issues like saline intrusion and land subsidence.
Controlling Water On Construction SitesMartin Preene
This document discusses controlling groundwater on construction sites. It provides examples of good and poor groundwater control. It also discusses managing surface water runoff and using techniques like cutoff walls, sump pumping, wellpoints and deepwells to control groundwater. The document notes potential environmental impacts of water management like settlement, pollution of aquifers or surface waters. With proper planning and design, the document concludes that projects can effectively manage surface and groundwater issues.
GROUND WATER RECHARGE TECHNIQUES BY CH.APPARAO (Research Associate, ARS, ATP)Apparao Chodisetti
Ground water recharge is the process whereby the amount of water present in or flowing through the interstices of the sub-soil increases by natural or artificial means. Rainfall is the principal source for replenishment of recharge of ground water. Other sources include recharge from rivers, streams, irrigation water etc. An unconfined aquifer is recharged directly by local rainfall, rivers, and lakes, and the rate of recharge will be influenced by the permeability of overlying rocks and soils. A confined aquifer, on the other hand, is characterized by an overlying bed that is impermeable, and local rainfall does not influence the aquifer. It is normally recharged from lakes, rivers, and rainfall that may occur at distances ranging from a few kilometers to thousands of kilometers.
This document discusses various geophysical investigation techniques used to study groundwater resources, with a focus on electrical resistivity and seismic refraction methods. It provides background on why geophysical methods are important for groundwater exploration, noting that they can quickly investigate large areas and provide multipurpose inferences. The electrical resistivity method is explained in detail, including how it works, electrode configurations like Wenner and Schlumberger, and profiling versus sounding approaches. Seismic refraction techniques are also introduced. In conclusion, a variety of geophysical techniques can provide useful information about groundwater occurrence and quality from surface or above-surface locations.
Ground improvement techniques are used to improve the engineering properties of soil, such as shear strength, stiffness, and permeability. They are required when soil properties are inadequate to support structures, or when soils are prone to swelling, shrinkage, collapse, or liquefaction. Common techniques include compaction, dewatering, reinforcement, grouting, and combinations thereof. The choice of technique depends on the soil type and purpose is to enable cost-effective foundation design and reduce the risks posed by problem soils.
Groundwater and surface water are interconnected through the hydrologic cycle and comprise our water resources. However, extraction and pollution are threatening these resources. Over-pumping of aquifers like the High Plains Aquifer has caused water tables to drop significantly. The Middle East is also over-pumping groundwater, causing saltwater intrusion. Once polluted, groundwater remains contaminated for a long time since it flows more slowly than surface water. Increased water demand and improper management are reducing available fresh water supplies globally. Sustainable practices are needed to protect this vital resource for the future.
There are several techniques for improving the mechanical properties of soil, including densification, reinforcement, and stabilization methods. Densification techniques like vibro-compaction, vibro-flotation, dynamic compaction, and blasting work to compact soil particles into a denser configuration, increasing strength and stiffness. Reinforcement techniques include installing discrete inclusions like compaction piles to reinforce weak soils. Stabilization techniques chemically alter the soil, such as jet grouting which mixes soil with cement grout under high pressure to form columns of treated soil.
Here are the answers to the quiz questions:
1. Groundwater is flowing from Well A to Well B.
2. The hydraulic gradient is (102 m - 105 m) / 1000 m = 0.003
3. The flux is q = K i = 10 m/day * 0.003 = 0.03 m/day
4. The porosity is 250 mL / 1000 mL = 25%
5. The remaining 50 mL of water is held in the material by capillary forces.
6. The porosity would be less for clay than sand.
7. Less water would pour out if we use clay instead of sand.
8. [T/F] An aquiclude is
The document discusses groundwater sources, zones, and types of aquifers. It describes the saturated and unsaturated zones, including the soil water, intermediate vadose, and capillary fringe zones. The main types of aquifers are defined as aquifer, aquitard, aquiclude, and aquifuge based on their water transmission properties. Methods of artificial groundwater recharge include direct surface techniques like flooding basins and percolation tanks, and direct subsurface techniques like injection wells.
The document discusses various groundwater improvement techniques, including both direct and indirect artificial recharge methods. Direct surface methods like percolation tanks, flooding, stream augmentation, and ditch/furrow systems enhance groundwater infiltration. Direct subsurface methods include recharge wells, dug wells, and pits/shafts that allow direct recharge. Indirect methods are induced recharge, which uses pumping to induce surface water infiltration, and aquifer modification methods that alter characteristics to improve storage and flow. The techniques described can help maximize storage, improve water quality, and replenish overexploited aquifers.
The document summarizes a water assessment study conducted in Bajaur, Khyber, and Mohmand agencies in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The study aimed to assess surface water and groundwater availability, develop a water balance model, and prepare a water management plan. Key findings include:
1) Surface water was assessed through analysis of rainfall, snowmelt, and proposed/existing dams. Groundwater was assessed through analysis of recharge, budget, and drawdown.
2) Major water consumers like agriculture, people, and livestock were identified and their current and projected water needs estimated.
3) A water balance model was developed to integrate water availability and consumption data for each agency and
water logging and salinity in pakistan by Musadiq Rehmanimusadiqrehmani
The document discusses water logging and salinity issues affecting agriculture in Pakistan. It states that 50% of irrigated lands in Pakistan are affected by water logging and salinity, reducing crop yields and farmer incomes. Drainage systems are needed to control water logging by allowing excess irrigation water to drain away and leach out salts. Biological controls and choosing tolerant crop species can also help reduce the impact of water logging on agricultural production.
This document discusses modifications made to a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate water and energy into agricultural production in Ethiopia and analyze the impacts of climate change and interventions. Key modifications include: (1) splitting land, capital, and livestock by region; (2) incorporating different water and energy types; (3) modifying production functions to capture substitution between inputs like water, energy, and land; and (4) developing scenarios around climate impacts, investments, and efficiency. The updated model will explore economy-wide effects of climate change on agriculture and potential response measures.
This document discusses using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the impacts of climate change and water availability on Egypt's economy and welfare. It describes how the DCGE model captures the circular flow of income through production, markets, government, and households. It shows how negative impacts like reduced water or crop yields can ripple through the economy, particularly impacting rural households. The model can then evaluate potential policy responses, such as increasing social grants and transfers. The document outlines strengths and weaknesses of CGE models and provides an example of applying the model to analyze climate change impacts and policy options in Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.
This document discusses three perspectives on water scarcity and economic growth: water as a publicly provided good subject to congestion, water as a conventional input into national production, and modeling water scarcity in a global CGE model. It also summarizes challenges in integrating hydrological and economic models to better understand how water scarcity may impact economic activity, growth, and trade patterns across sectors and countries. Addressing data and methodological gaps is important to improve water scarcity modeling and policy analysis.
Session 4 a kenneth strzepek, sherman robinson and brent boehlertIFPRI
This document summarizes the potential economic impacts on Egypt from increased development and water usage upstream in the Nile River Basin. It finds that:
1) In early decades, Egypt may experience up to 3 years of 2.5% reduced energy production and 2 years of 1.5% reduced GDP from lower water flows.
2) However, the impacts decrease over time as Egypt's economy diversifies away from dependence on Nile water.
3) Regional cooperation to share hydropower benefits and coordinate water management during drought could help mitigate Egypt's economic losses.
This document summarizes approaches to modeling the linkages between water and agriculture in economic models. It provides examples of global and regional models that have incorporated water constraints and relationships. Key challenges include capturing both the physical quantities and spatial dimensions of water use, as well as limitations in data on irrigated areas and water allocation. The document concludes with a quantitative experiment simulating the impacts of groundwater declines in northern India on global food production, prices, and trade.
1) The document discusses the concepts of irrigation efficiency and water productivity, noting important distinctions in their definitions, scales of analysis, and limitations.
2) It provides an example from Zhanghe Irrigation District in China where improvements to both on-farm water management and water allocation policies led to increased water productivity while maintaining agricultural output.
3) Key lessons are that strategies to improve water management need to consider perspectives of different water user groups and potential impacts at broader basin scales, and that multiple indicators of water productivity are needed to fully understand complex agricultural systems and trade-offs.
SESSION 1: Rob Dellink, OECD_ Land Water Energy Nexus - CIRCLE workshop Oct....OECD Environment
The document discusses linking different economic and environmental models to analyze the land-water-energy nexus and its consequences for economic growth. It proposes:
1) Soft-linking models by using the output of one model as input for another and harmonizing scenario storylines.
2) A staged modelling approach using ENV-Growth for macroeconomics, ENV-Linkages for sectoral projections and emissions, and IMAGE for biophysical impacts.
3) Feedback loops, with ENV-Linkages incorporating impacts on economic activity from IMAGE's analysis of changes in crop productivity, prices, and trade patterns.
Policy Analysis Matrix "Assessing Land and Water Productivity and Agriculture...FAO
Policy Analysis Matrix "Assessing Land and Water Productivity and Agriculture Competitiveness", By Mahmood Ahmad - Ph.D, FAO Consultant on Water Scarcity Initiative and Land and Water Days
This document discusses various geophysical investigation techniques used to study groundwater resources, with a focus on electrical resistivity and seismic refraction methods. It provides background on why geophysical methods are important for groundwater exploration, noting that they can quickly investigate large areas and provide multipurpose inferences. The electrical resistivity method is explained in detail, including how it works, electrode configurations like Wenner and Schlumberger, and profiling versus sounding approaches. Seismic refraction techniques are also introduced. In conclusion, a variety of geophysical techniques can provide useful information about groundwater occurrence and quality from surface or above-surface locations.
Ground improvement techniques are used to improve the engineering properties of soil, such as shear strength, stiffness, and permeability. They are required when soil properties are inadequate to support structures, or when soils are prone to swelling, shrinkage, collapse, or liquefaction. Common techniques include compaction, dewatering, reinforcement, grouting, and combinations thereof. The choice of technique depends on the soil type and purpose is to enable cost-effective foundation design and reduce the risks posed by problem soils.
Groundwater and surface water are interconnected through the hydrologic cycle and comprise our water resources. However, extraction and pollution are threatening these resources. Over-pumping of aquifers like the High Plains Aquifer has caused water tables to drop significantly. The Middle East is also over-pumping groundwater, causing saltwater intrusion. Once polluted, groundwater remains contaminated for a long time since it flows more slowly than surface water. Increased water demand and improper management are reducing available fresh water supplies globally. Sustainable practices are needed to protect this vital resource for the future.
There are several techniques for improving the mechanical properties of soil, including densification, reinforcement, and stabilization methods. Densification techniques like vibro-compaction, vibro-flotation, dynamic compaction, and blasting work to compact soil particles into a denser configuration, increasing strength and stiffness. Reinforcement techniques include installing discrete inclusions like compaction piles to reinforce weak soils. Stabilization techniques chemically alter the soil, such as jet grouting which mixes soil with cement grout under high pressure to form columns of treated soil.
Here are the answers to the quiz questions:
1. Groundwater is flowing from Well A to Well B.
2. The hydraulic gradient is (102 m - 105 m) / 1000 m = 0.003
3. The flux is q = K i = 10 m/day * 0.003 = 0.03 m/day
4. The porosity is 250 mL / 1000 mL = 25%
5. The remaining 50 mL of water is held in the material by capillary forces.
6. The porosity would be less for clay than sand.
7. Less water would pour out if we use clay instead of sand.
8. [T/F] An aquiclude is
The document discusses groundwater sources, zones, and types of aquifers. It describes the saturated and unsaturated zones, including the soil water, intermediate vadose, and capillary fringe zones. The main types of aquifers are defined as aquifer, aquitard, aquiclude, and aquifuge based on their water transmission properties. Methods of artificial groundwater recharge include direct surface techniques like flooding basins and percolation tanks, and direct subsurface techniques like injection wells.
The document discusses various groundwater improvement techniques, including both direct and indirect artificial recharge methods. Direct surface methods like percolation tanks, flooding, stream augmentation, and ditch/furrow systems enhance groundwater infiltration. Direct subsurface methods include recharge wells, dug wells, and pits/shafts that allow direct recharge. Indirect methods are induced recharge, which uses pumping to induce surface water infiltration, and aquifer modification methods that alter characteristics to improve storage and flow. The techniques described can help maximize storage, improve water quality, and replenish overexploited aquifers.
The document summarizes a water assessment study conducted in Bajaur, Khyber, and Mohmand agencies in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The study aimed to assess surface water and groundwater availability, develop a water balance model, and prepare a water management plan. Key findings include:
1) Surface water was assessed through analysis of rainfall, snowmelt, and proposed/existing dams. Groundwater was assessed through analysis of recharge, budget, and drawdown.
2) Major water consumers like agriculture, people, and livestock were identified and their current and projected water needs estimated.
3) A water balance model was developed to integrate water availability and consumption data for each agency and
water logging and salinity in pakistan by Musadiq Rehmanimusadiqrehmani
The document discusses water logging and salinity issues affecting agriculture in Pakistan. It states that 50% of irrigated lands in Pakistan are affected by water logging and salinity, reducing crop yields and farmer incomes. Drainage systems are needed to control water logging by allowing excess irrigation water to drain away and leach out salts. Biological controls and choosing tolerant crop species can also help reduce the impact of water logging on agricultural production.
This document discusses modifications made to a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate water and energy into agricultural production in Ethiopia and analyze the impacts of climate change and interventions. Key modifications include: (1) splitting land, capital, and livestock by region; (2) incorporating different water and energy types; (3) modifying production functions to capture substitution between inputs like water, energy, and land; and (4) developing scenarios around climate impacts, investments, and efficiency. The updated model will explore economy-wide effects of climate change on agriculture and potential response measures.
This document discusses using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the impacts of climate change and water availability on Egypt's economy and welfare. It describes how the DCGE model captures the circular flow of income through production, markets, government, and households. It shows how negative impacts like reduced water or crop yields can ripple through the economy, particularly impacting rural households. The model can then evaluate potential policy responses, such as increasing social grants and transfers. The document outlines strengths and weaknesses of CGE models and provides an example of applying the model to analyze climate change impacts and policy options in Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.
This document discusses three perspectives on water scarcity and economic growth: water as a publicly provided good subject to congestion, water as a conventional input into national production, and modeling water scarcity in a global CGE model. It also summarizes challenges in integrating hydrological and economic models to better understand how water scarcity may impact economic activity, growth, and trade patterns across sectors and countries. Addressing data and methodological gaps is important to improve water scarcity modeling and policy analysis.
Session 4 a kenneth strzepek, sherman robinson and brent boehlertIFPRI
This document summarizes the potential economic impacts on Egypt from increased development and water usage upstream in the Nile River Basin. It finds that:
1) In early decades, Egypt may experience up to 3 years of 2.5% reduced energy production and 2 years of 1.5% reduced GDP from lower water flows.
2) However, the impacts decrease over time as Egypt's economy diversifies away from dependence on Nile water.
3) Regional cooperation to share hydropower benefits and coordinate water management during drought could help mitigate Egypt's economic losses.
This document summarizes approaches to modeling the linkages between water and agriculture in economic models. It provides examples of global and regional models that have incorporated water constraints and relationships. Key challenges include capturing both the physical quantities and spatial dimensions of water use, as well as limitations in data on irrigated areas and water allocation. The document concludes with a quantitative experiment simulating the impacts of groundwater declines in northern India on global food production, prices, and trade.
1) The document discusses the concepts of irrigation efficiency and water productivity, noting important distinctions in their definitions, scales of analysis, and limitations.
2) It provides an example from Zhanghe Irrigation District in China where improvements to both on-farm water management and water allocation policies led to increased water productivity while maintaining agricultural output.
3) Key lessons are that strategies to improve water management need to consider perspectives of different water user groups and potential impacts at broader basin scales, and that multiple indicators of water productivity are needed to fully understand complex agricultural systems and trade-offs.
SESSION 1: Rob Dellink, OECD_ Land Water Energy Nexus - CIRCLE workshop Oct....OECD Environment
The document discusses linking different economic and environmental models to analyze the land-water-energy nexus and its consequences for economic growth. It proposes:
1) Soft-linking models by using the output of one model as input for another and harmonizing scenario storylines.
2) A staged modelling approach using ENV-Growth for macroeconomics, ENV-Linkages for sectoral projections and emissions, and IMAGE for biophysical impacts.
3) Feedback loops, with ENV-Linkages incorporating impacts on economic activity from IMAGE's analysis of changes in crop productivity, prices, and trade patterns.
Policy Analysis Matrix "Assessing Land and Water Productivity and Agriculture...FAO
Policy Analysis Matrix "Assessing Land and Water Productivity and Agriculture Competitiveness", By Mahmood Ahmad - Ph.D, FAO Consultant on Water Scarcity Initiative and Land and Water Days
This document discusses business models for resource recovery and reuse in the wastewater sector. It outlines several challenges for developing businesses in this sector, including high dependence on subsidies and limited scaling potential. It also describes gaps in business thinking and lack of market mechanisms. The document then presents several case studies of existing business models for wastewater treatment and reuse in countries like Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Bangladesh, Iran, and Spain. These models utilize wastewater for agriculture, aquaculture, inter-sectoral water exchange, and co-composting. They involve various public-private partnerships and contractual agreements. Finally, the document discusses developing business curricula and briefs for investors on this topic.
26 nov16 managing_irrigation_challenges_opportunities_and_way forwardIWRS Society
Managing Irrigation: Challenges, Opportunities and Way Forward
Alok K Sikka
International Water Management Institute IWMI Representative‐India, New Delhi
- Public agricultural expenditures in Ghana have been higher for cocoa since the 1980s and increased more rapidly than for the non-cocoa subsector.
- Land productivity has increased steadily for non-cocoa but more erratically for cocoa.
- The study estimates the effects of public agricultural expenditures on land productivity from 1970-2012 for cocoa and non-cocoa. It finds that total public agricultural expenditures have a positive effect on total agricultural GDP per hectare, with a greater effect for cocoa expenditures than non-cocoa.
The document discusses various proposed Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) for India to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development. It proposes NAMAs related to housing, education, water access, smart cities, industry, agriculture, renewable energy, forestry, religious events, and more. Some key points discussed are:
- Housing NAMA to support building 4.3 crore affordable homes by 2023 using solar water heaters, saving Rs. 8,300 Cr in utility bills and 120 tons of CO2 over 20 years.
- Education NAMA to make educational institutions sustainable in energy, water, and waste management using technologies like solar pumping and rainwater harvesting.
- Water sustainability NA
Biosight: Quantitative Methods for Policy Analysis: Multi Market ModelsIFPRI-EPTD
This document provides an overview and examples of multi-market models. It begins by explaining that multi-market models can model interactions between markets at the macro-level. Examples of specific multi-market models are then presented, including a water trade model between regions, a model of the alfalfa market in California, and a multi-good, multi-region trade model. Key concepts in multi-market models like partial equilibrium, price relationships determining trade, and modeling effects of trade policies are also discussed. Code examples from GAMS are provided to illustrate dual water trade problems and the multi-region trade model.
This document provides information on SDG&E's water-energy pilot programs. It discusses that water-related energy use accounts for about 20% of California's electricity consumption. SDG&E has partnered with the San Diego County Water Authority on three pilot programs - a managed landscape program targeting apartment complexes and offices, a large customer audit program, and a recycled water retrofit program. The goals are to reduce water usage and resulting indirect energy savings in the San Diego region.
This document discusses how to integrate economic and financial analysis into funding proposals for the Green Climate Fund (GCF). It outlines the key differences between financial analysis, which looks at cash flows and revenues/expenditures from the perspective of a single party, and economic analysis, which compares monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits from a societal perspective. The document provides examples of how GCF currently uses economic and financial analysis and recommends basic steps to conduct analyses for agriculture and food security projects.
Name: Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach.
Authors: Martin Henseler (Spain), Alexander Wirsig (Germany), Sylvia Herrmann (Germany), Tatjana Krimly (Germany), Stephan Dabbert (Germany).
Publication: Agricultural System.
Year: 2009.
Keywords: Global change, Regional optimization model, Global change scenarios, Agricultural production, Nonlinear programming.
Similar to Country-Wide Water-Economy Links: An Integrated Modeling Approach with Application to Pakistan By Arthur Gueneau, IFPRI (20)
Presentation made by Hina Nazli, Amina Mehmood, and Asma Shahzad on October 2, 2014 in Islamabad, Pakistan at the policy seminar "Food Consumption Pattern and Nutritional Status in Pakistan."
Presentation at the
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington DC,
September 11th, 201
Dr Shakil Jehangir Malik
MBBS, MCPS(Psych), DPM (Eire), MCPS(Can),
Dip NLP(Lon), FRCPsych(Lon)
Senior Clinical Director & Consultant Psychiatrist
Sussex Partnership NHS Foundation & Teaching Trust
Senior Lecturer King’s College, University of Londo
This document provides an overview of the Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The PSSP is a 4-year country-led program aimed at contributing to pro-poor economic growth and food security in Pakistan. It involves guidance from a National Advisory Committee and collaboration between IFPRI and other Pakistani institutions. The PSSP covers research themes in agricultural production, water policy, macroeconomics, poverty dynamics, and capacity building. It also details current and planned research projects within these themes and highlights the program's competitive grants program.
The document summarizes research conducted on the size and nature of informal entrepreneurship in Pakistan. It provides details on how the research was conducted, including defining informal entrepreneurship, developing research questions, sampling methodology, data collection tools, and analysis plan. Key findings include that over 40% of small businesses operate informally, with the majority citing complex regulations and taxes as barriers to formalization. Qualitative interviews found small business owners face challenges like complicated laws that officials exploit for bribes and restrictive regulations. The research aims to inform policy measures to better support and formalize Pakistan's informal entrepreneur sector.
This document summarizes research on improving property tax policy in Pakistan to support economic growth. Key findings include:
1) Property taxes in Punjab generate only 0.026% of GDP compared to 0.1-0.7% internationally, representing lost revenue of $70-649 million annually.
2) Punjab's property tax system has weak administration, outdated valuations, poor coverage of new areas, and many exemptions resulting in low collection.
3) Interviews and data from one district show property tax and local rates demand is low and flat despite rising property values.
4) The study will analyze policy options to broaden the tax base and compliance through simulation models.
Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...
Country-Wide Water-Economy Links: An Integrated Modeling Approach with Application to Pakistan By Arthur Gueneau, IFPRI
1. Modeling Economywide Impacts
of Water Policies in Pakistan
Sherman Robinson and Arthur Gueneau
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
December 14, 2012 - Islamabad
2. Plan of the Presentation
• Motivation of the work
• Presentation of the CGE-W model
– CGE model: IFPRI standard model
– Water model: IBMR
– Links: CGE-W
• Preliminary illustrative results
• Future work and conclusion
2
3. Motivation
• Pakistan is subject to increasing water stress
– Expanding agriculture relies heavily on irrigation
– Hydropower important for increased energy demand
• Water policies have a large impact on the
agricultural and power sectors
– Impacts are transmitted to the rest of the economy
through markets and changes in prices
– Potential use of simulation models to analyze
water/economy/policy links
3
4. Modeling Paradigm
• CGE-W is a water/economic simulation model
– Water policies influence distribution of water
– Repercussion on crop yields
– Yield changes shock agricultural supply
– Economy reacts by reallocating production factors
through market mechanisms and price changes
– Changes in prices affect farmers’ decisions for the
following year
• Economic policies also have indirect impacts on
the water sector 4
5. IFPRI Dynamic CGE-W Model
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
5
6. Why a coupled model?
• There are economic models with water factors
– Do not capture the complexity of the Indus basin
• There are water models with economic variables
– Do not capture economywide links between
agriculture and the rest of the economy
• Our paradigm: Let each model do what it is best
at and make them talk to each other
7. Computable General Equilibrium
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
7
8. Computable General Equilibrium
(CGE) Models
• A standard tool of economic and policy analysis
for the past 40 years
• Simulates operation of a market economy with
supply/demand equilibrium determining prices
• IFPRI Standard CGE model (Lofgren and
Robinson)
8
9. Stylized CGE Model Structure
Factor Domestic Private Savings
Factor Markets Wages
Costs & Rents Gov. Savings
Taxes
Intermediate
Input Cost Households Government Sav./Inv.
Activities
Transfers
Private Government Investment
Consumption Consumption Demand
Commodity
Sales Markets
Exports Imports Foreign Transfers
Rest of the Foreign Savings
World
9
10. IFPRI Pakistan CGE Model
• Based on the 2007-2008 SAM of Pakistan
(Dorosh et al., 2012).
– 63 activities and 48 commodities
– Special focus on agriculture (15 agric commodities)
– Large, medium, and small farms
• Distinguishes 19 types of households and 10
types of labor
• Distinguishes Punjab, Sindh, and other provinces
for agricultural sector
10
11. IBMR Water Model
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
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13. CGE-W version of IBMR
• Standalone water model
• Water model does not have any internal
representation of the economy
– Links to CGE model for economic variables
• Objective is to minimize the agricultural water
shortage across all Pakistan
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14. CGE-W IBMR Overview
• Represents the 45 main canals, as well as the link
canals between rivers
• Takes into account fresh and saline groundwater,
as well as public and private tubewell pumping
• Can represent droughts and floods
• Includes 16 representative crops
• Takes into account industrial, domestic and
livestock water demand (assumed to be drawn
from groundwater mostly)
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15. Water Demand Module
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
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16. Water Demand Module
• Computes agricultural cropped area based on
the CGE model results
• The water demand is then computed using FAO
guidelines
• Industrial and Livestock water demand are
proportional to the amount of activity in the
sector
• Domestic water demand is proportional to
household revenues
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17. Water Stress Module
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
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18. Water Stress Module
• In case of water stress, the yield of crops is
reduced using the FAO Ky approach (Doorenbos
and Kassam, “Yield Response to Water”,1979)
• It is aggregated to the provincial level and to
economically representative cropping activities
• The ratio of the current year yield to the base
year yield is used to shock the production of
crops in a second run of the CGE model
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19. Linking the Models
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
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20. IFPRI Dynamic CGE-W Model
• Can be run dynamically over many years
– Economic actors act based on the previous years and
have no forecast of the water situation
• A full optimization version is being developed
– Economic actors have perfect knowledge of water
conditions in the year to come and make decisions
accordingly
• Can test different scenarios of economic and
water policies for Pakistan
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21. Illustrative Results
• Runs with economic policy options
CGE model • Base-year water stress
• Industrial and domestic water demand
Water
demand
• Agricultural area (based on prices)
• Optimizes the water distribution
IBMR • Calculates water shortages
• Calculates the impact of water stress on yields
Water stress • Calculates the depletion of groundwater associated
• The yield reduction (or increase) impacts the agricultural production
CGE model • Calculates the new economic output
21
22. Illustrative Results
• We run the dynamic model for 20 years (2005 to
2025) using “guesstimated” growth coefficients
• We run three different scenarios: one base year
(with average flow), one dry year and one wet
year
• We run these scenarios again with the presence
of the Basha dam to see its impact on the
economy (considering only irrigation benefits for
now)
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30. Illustrative Results: Conclusion
• Dry and wet years strongly impact GDP
• Building the dam does have a significant impact
on agriculture:
– Basha has a strong positive impact on rabi crops in
Sindh
– It has a positive impact on kharif crops in both Sindh
and Punjab
– It has a somewhat smaller impact on rabi crops in
Punjab
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31. Future Work
• Define and run other policy experiments
• Water model improvements
– representation of non-Indus basin water
– representation of groundwater
– representation of hydropower
• Consider effects of climate change
– Increased frequency of extreme events: floods and
droughts
– Impacts on infrastructure (roads, bridges, buildings)
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32. Future Work Program
• Disseminate the model in Pakistan
– UAF class in Faisalabad, Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2013
– Possible seminars in different institutions
• PSSP work program to develop collaborative
research projects with institutions in Pakistan
– Work program on water models, economywide
models, and linked models
– Develop and update the Social Accounting Matrix
to get a better vision of the economy
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