1. Hot Breakfast Briefing #HotBreakfast
Autumn Statement and Growth Policy
05 December 2011
Steve Besley, PearsonCPL (@SteveBesley)
Louis Coiffait, PearsonCPL (@LouisMMCoiffait)
Andy Palmer, BT (@Palmer_Andy)
www.pearsoncpl.com
*Please note that flash photography and video may be used*

2. #HotBreakfast 05/12/112
Policy overview – growth and education
Steve Besley, PearsonCPL (@SteveBesley)
1

3. The policy context
 2 years into 5 year stretch, traditionally a difficult period
 Route map set out in Coalition Agreement updated through Dept
Business Plans, SRPs, Key Papers
 Overall narrative established but subject to current economic
fluctuations and mood swings
 Education a high political and social priority, extensive reform under
way
 Notable (post-16) signposts include:
– Comprehensive Spending Review (Oct 2010)
– Skills for Sustainable Growth (Nov 2010)
– Growth Review (March 2011)
– Response to the Wolf Review (May 2011)
– HE White Paper (June 2011)
– New Challenges, New Chances (August 2011)
– National Infrastructure Plan (Nov 2011)
– Chancellor’s Financial Statement and Growth Plan (Nov 2011)
– Response to FE reform programme (Dec 2011)
#HotBreakfast 05/12/113

4. The economic context
 Economic framework set out in Emergency Budget (June 2010,)
CSR (Oct 2010,) Budget update (March 2011,) Autumn Financial
Statement (Nov 2011)
 Current forecasts gloomy:
 Growth: 0.9% (2011,) 0.7% (2012,) 2.1% (2013,) 2.7% (2014)
 Inflation: 4-5% (2011,) 2.5% (2012,) 2% (2013)
 Unemployment; 8.1% (2011,) 8.7% (2012,) falling after to
6.2% by 2014
 Impact on the education system:
 Slashing of capital budgets
 Reduction in public investment
 Increase in pensionable age
 Limits to pubic sector pay
 Consultations on school and 16-19 funding
 Introduction of new approach for supporting disadvantage
 Introduction of fee loan systems for FE and HE
 Incentive and contribution schemes where possible
#HotBreakfast 05/12/114

5. How is the Government responding?
 Issued a series of Plans
 Economic Plan
 Growth Plan
 National Infrastructure Plan
 Held a number of consultations
 School, 16-19, FE and HE Funding
 VQ reform. Wolf, employer role, apprenticeships
 Sector reform. Schools, FE, HE
 Other. Open Data, UCAS, teacher professionalism
 Made some ‘ying/yang’ speeches
 Vince Cable’s Sept ‘Conference’ speech
 John Hayes’s Nov AoC speech
 David Cameron’s Nov CBI speech
 Launched some important strategies
 For schools
 For 14-19
 For FE
 For HE
 Developed a set of reforming principles
#HotBreakfast 05/12/115

6. Reforming principles
1. Reduce structural deficit within lifetime of the Government
2. Shift Government spending away from inputs and strategies to outputs
and efficiencies
3. Limit state contribution to essential provision, transfer fee burden
where appropriate to consumer/community
4. Look to private sector to lead the way in creating efficiencies and jobs
5. Free up public sector to respond to customer needs
6. Develop the concept of the informed consumer to act as agent of
change
7. Use increase in data and intelligence to drive choice and quality of
services
8. Devolve authority and responsibility to sub-regional level where
possible
9. Emphasise pragmatism rather than philosophy
10. Embrace best international practice where necessary
#HotBreakfast 05/12/116

7. Three key policy areas
1. Youth unemployment
2. Development of the FE sector
3. The Growth Plan
#HotBreakfast 05/12/117

8. 1. Current labour market
 Total unemployment = 2.62m (up 129,000 from previous quarter)
 Unemployment rate for 16-24 = 1.02m (up 67,000 from previous quarter*)
 Unemployed 16-17 yr olds = 217,000 (up 11,000 on previous quarter)
 Unemployed 18-24 year olds = 799,000 (up 55,000 on previous quarter)
 16-24 NEET figures = 1.6m (up 137,000 on previous year)
 No employed in public sector = 6.04m (down over quarter by 97,000)
 No employed in private sector = 23.13m (up over quarter by 41,000)
 Average weekly hours worked = 31.5 (up 0.3 from previous quarter)
*Includes those in f/t education but seeking/available for work
(Source ONS/LFS. Nov 2011)
#HotBreakfast 05/12/118

9. 1. Youth Unemployment
 Part of a global trend but an acid test for Government
 Series of papers and pronouncements over the year as numbers have
risen
 Current mechanisms focused on transition to work arrangements
 Measures include:
• Reform of the VQ system to focus on quals and skills that can enhance
progression and employability
• Commitment to raise the participation age
• Development of the work-based route through apprenticeship growth
• Support for the development of UTCs, Tech Academies, Maths Free
Schools
• Launch of a Youth Contract offering internships, placements and support
• Deployment of incentives to encourage employers to take on more
young people
• Dedicated programme to provide support for NEETs
• Accelerated referrals and extra support through JCP
• Bigger push on entrepreneurship
• Provision of a National Careers Service
• Publication of destination data for 16 and 18 yr olds
#HotBreakfast 05/12/119

10. 2. Development of the FE sector
Emerging reform programme. 10 elements
1. Simplified funding system with funding responsibility increasingly shared
2. System built around market/learner needs eg Innovation Code, employer
ownership, comparison websites, common information sets
3. Improved advice and guidance through National Careers Service, Lifelong
learning Accounts
4. Progressive framework of VET programmes with emphasis on Eng/ma,
through from community and core learning to higher level tech and
apprenticeship provision
5. Excellence in T/L through a new Commission, network of expert
practitioners, review of professionalism, focus on STEM, ITT bursary
6. Responsive qual system refined through consultations on NOS and
employer role in QD plus AO flexibility and QCF awareness
7. More strategic approach to governance, titling, partnerships and
structures
8. Long-term road map to give providers more freedom and flexibility
9. More proportionate but transparent models of QA and accountability
10. Recognition of global context with work on developing a global strategy
for FE and a strong presence in the GREAT Britain shop window
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1110

11. 3. The Growth Plan
 Designed to remove barriers and create conditions for growth
 4 general ambitions with a number of measures around skills
 Linked to National Infrastructure Plan
 137 ‘Phase 1’ measures under way, current priorities include:
• Reform of VQ system for young people
• Focus on STEM provision
• Expansion of work exp provision and support
• Expansion of UTC system
• Increase in apprenticeship provision
• Greater transparency of performance, outcome and destination
data
• Recreation of Enterprise Zones
• Introduction of new TIC system
• Development of new funding schemes (RGF, GIF)
• Creation of Green Investment bank
• Development of LEP network
• Employer ownership and kitemarking of courses
• Credit easing and Loan Guarantee Scheme for SMEs
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1111

12. View from the other side
 5 point Growth Plan set out by the Shadow Chancellor at
the Party Conference
 Use further tax on bank bonuses to fund more homes and jobs for
young people
 Bring forward a number of infrastructure projects
 Offer small firms NI breaks to take on more staff
 Reverse (temporarily) the VAT rise
 Cut VAT on home improvements
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1112

13. And the view from over the pond
 Obama’s American Jobs Act announced in Sept. 5 parts:
• Tax cuts to help small business hire and grow
• Series of infrastructure projects to help ‘modernise’ America and
put people back to work
• Help for the unemployed through work-sharing, tax credits, youth
programmes, support for entrepreneurship and a new ‘Bridge to
Work’ programme
• A programme of tax reliefs for workers and families
• Financing through a long-term Deficit Reduction Plan
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1113

14. Now it’s time for ALL OF YOU to answer
some questions*…
Grab those voting pads!
*hopefully, technology permitting…

15. Q1: The PM has complained recently that we’re
talking ourselves into a recession. How do you feel?
1. Positive about the future
2. Anxious about the future
3. Feel concerned but think that
things will work out eventually
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1115
6%
50%
44%

16. Q2: Which one of the following do you think the
Chancellor should do?
1. Stick with Plan A
2. Flex up Plan A by putting more
money into the economy
3. Abandon Plan A and start again
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1116
13%
59%
28%

17. Q3: The Government had hoped to reduce the
structural deficit by 2014/15, it now says it will take
a bit longer. Who do you blame?
1. The EU
2. The present Government
3. The previous Government
4. All of the above
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1117
0%
6%
18%
76%

18. Q4: The Youth Contract contains a number of
measures to try and help young people. Which one
do you think will be most effective?
1. More apprenticeships
2. More internships and placements
3. Better advice and guidance
4. More incentives to encourage
employers to recruit young people
5. More English and maths
6. None of the above
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1118
28%
3%
16%
28%
16%
9%

19. Q5: What will you be doing this Christmas?
1. Spending more than last Christmas
2. Spending less than last Christmas
3. Spending about the same
4. Saying Bah Humbug to Christmas altogether
#HotBreakfast 05/12/1119
13%
22%
44%
22%

20. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1120
Research on careers and enterprise
Louis Coiffait, PearsonCPL (@LouisMMCoiffait)
2

21. Careers202021
Which ONE WORD describes current careers services?

22. Careers202022
Which ONE WORD describes what careers services of
the future should be like?

23. Careers202023
Which ONE WORD describes how we should get there?

24. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1124
Research project 1: #Careers2020
 Working with the University of Derby and other partners
 Focussing on school-based careers services
 Starting with a blank canvas, ideally what should careers services do?
 Consulting all the relevant stakeholders
 Exploring different options for the future
 Designing concise and accessible outputs for parents, heads etc

25. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1125
Q6: Which statement best describes
how you feel about careers services?
1. Have always worked perfectly
and are getting even better
2. Never quite fit the bill but seem
to be on the right track now
3. Were finally starting to function
but are all over the place now
4. Going to hell in a handcart
0%
24%
14%
62%

26. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1126
Research project 2: #Train2Thrive
enterprise & entrepreneurship education
Three research questions;
1.what is it?
2.what impact does it have?
3.how should it be delivered?
A large research project in partnership with the Education and
Employers Taskforce, University of Warwick and others

27. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1127
#Train2Thrive research approach
Educators
Literature
review
Stakeholder
consultation
quantitative online surveys
Phase one:
Mapping current thinking
(international)
Phase two:
Gathering new evidence
(England)
Phase three:
Developing recommendations
(England and international)
12 Oct Taskforce Conference
14 Nov interim findings event
Draft final report
Spring 2012 - final report
and launch event
Feb
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
qualitative focus groups
Employers Learners
Test and refine findings
and recommendations
Mar
Online
learner poll
2 teacher
workshops

28. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1128
Five insights emerging from phase one
1. Definitions matter – the same words often have very different
meanings to different people.
2. Levels of participation and perceived impact vary – some are
unaware of this agenda, some disagree with it, while others are
passionately supportive.
3. Impact cannot be taken for granted – there is little robust or
conclusive evidence about the impact these education practices
have.
4. External engagement matters and needs harnessing better –
with evidence suggesting best practice involves appropriate and well-
planned employer involvement, but is often delivered without it.
5. Many who work in education do not seem to value it – with the
result that many learners (c.70%) do not experience it at all.

29. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1129
Q7: Which statement best describes how
you feel about enterprise and
entrepreneurship education?
1. It’s a distraction, you
shouldn’t try to teach it
2. It’s important but people
have other teaching priorities
3. There’s already enough good
practice for those who care
4. It’s vital and should be given
more support
10%
21%
14%
55%

30. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1130

31. #HotBreakfast 05/12/1131
Research on technicians and STEM skills
Andy Palmer, BT (@Palmer_Andy)
3

32. Thank you
3 final requests please…
1.complete and leave your feedback form
2.remember to leave your voting pads too
3.put any breakfast remnants on the racks to the left