110411 Hot Breakfast Briefing on growth


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110411 Hot Breakfast Briefing on growth

  1. 1. Hot Breakfast Briefing The growth strategy April 11 2011 Steve Besley (@SteveBesley on Twitter) Louis Coiffait (@LouisMMCoiffait on Twitter) Brendan O’Grady www.pearsoncpl.com
  2. 2. Agenda 1.Context 2.The strategy in a bit more detail 3.How might it play out? 4.How does it leave the education & skills system? 5.What do you think?
  3. 3. 1. Context 2. The strategy in a bit more detail Steve Besley
  4. 4. 1. Context 3 stages 1. Establish economic stability 2. Develop a convincing narrative 3. Launch a long-term plan
  5. 5. Stage 1. Establish economic stability • Publish Emergency Budget (June 2010) • Establish framework for economic recovery (CSR Oct 2010) • Assess progress (Budget 2011) – No Plan B – Token measure on pay, bit on fuel and housing – Some gloomy economic forecasts: • Growth: 1.7% (2011,) 2.5% (2012,) 2.9% (2012) • Inflation: 4-5% (2011,) 2.5% (2012,) 2% (2013) • Unemployment: slight increase (2011,) steady fall (2012) – 4 part vision for growth: • Simplified and competitive tax system • UK one of the best places to start/develop a business • Help create a more balanced economy • Create a more educated and flexible workforce
  6. 6. Stage 2. Develop a convincing narrative (through speeches) • David Cameron’s July 2010 SRP speech • David Cameron’s Oct 2010 CBI speech • David Cameron’s Jan 2011 Growth speech • Nick Clegg’s Feb 2011 Growth speech • Vince Cable’s March 2011 Mansion House speech • David Cameron’s March 2011 Spring Conference speech • George Osborne’s March 2011 Budget speech
  7. 7. Stage 2. Develop a convincing narrative (through language) • “I‟m telling you today that your job under this Government is not to frustrate local people and local ideas, it is to enable them” • “If I have to pull these people into my office and get them off the backs of business, then believe me I will do it” • “We‟re on the side of the people I call alarm clock Britain. On the side of anyone who wants to get up and get on” • “It‟s failed to articulate in big picture terms its vision of what the UK economy might become under its stewardship”
  8. 8. Stage 2. Develop a convincing narrative (through reports) 1. National Infrastructure Plan – Focus on energy, transport, technology, carbon reduction – £200bn private/public investment over SR period 2. Local Growth White Paper – Shift the focus for ec growth on to local leadership – Emphasis on manufacturing, tourism, low carbon economy, technology – Supported by £1.4bn Regional Growth Fund and private investment – Enabled by a Localism Bill 3. Blueprint for Technology – Declaration that Britain was ‘open for business’ – New Entrepreneur Visa, IP, Tech/Innovation Centres – £200m for Tech/Innovation Centres, £150m for UKIIF, £400m for new superfast broadband
  9. 9. Stage 2. Develop a convincing narrative (through papers) 4. Growth Review – Rolling assessment of key sectors/mechanisms for growth – Every Dept to develop an action plan – Initial focus on 6 sectors: Adv. Man.; Digital & Creative; Bus. & Prof. Services; Retail; Construction; Healthcare & Life Sciences 5. Skills and Investment Strategy – Moves on from Leitch by dismantling central planning and creating new demand mechanisms – Re-balances funding contributions around employer co- investment and adult fee system – Continues subsidies for basic skills and ‘disadvantaged’ groups, establishes min. contract levels & apprenticeship delivery rates – Proposes a review and social partnership model for ACL – Retains existing QD model through SSCs/ABs/QCF but with emphasis on more responsiveness, focused outcomes – Frees up providers but introduces new performance measures and OIPs, opens up provider system – Beefs up intelligence and support throughput to users
  10. 10. Stage 3. Launch a long-term plan • 126 pages • 4 ambitions • 16 benchmarks • 8 sectors • 7 priority areas • 38 things already done • 62 things to be done
  11. 11. Stage 3. Launch a long-term plan Key messages for education and skills (Ambition 4) • 4 identified concerns: – Poor international standing in core subjects (schools) – Low levels of intermediate tech skills (FE) – Weak graduate skill levels (HE) – “The UK working age population has lower skills than the workforce in France, Germany, USA” (All) • 5 measurable benchmarks: – Support more apprenticeships than any previous Gov. – House more top universities than anywhere except USA – Increase 16-24 participation – Narrow the education gap – Lowest employment regulation burdens
  12. 12. 2. The strategy in a bit more detail The key measures; • For young people • For adult learning and employers
  13. 13. 2. The strategy in a bit more detail Key measures include: – Reform of VQ system for young people – Expansion of work exp places – Extension of UTC system – Development of youth entrepreneurship – Increase in apprenticeship places – Roll-out of NEA system – Recreation of Enterprise Zones – Introduction of new TIC system – Development of new funding schemes (RGF, GIF) – Creation of Green Investment bank – Development of LEP network – Promoting growth in key economic sectors
  14. 14. Measures affecting young people • Reform of VQ system for young people – 2 stage phase defined by increasing specialisation – Revamped voc. offer built around core with more flexible options – Review of offer for ‘low-attainers’ – Simplified regulatory system – Greater choice of where to study – Funding to follow learner – Provision to match market need • Expansion of work experience places – Up to 100,000 over 2 years – Emphasis on developing ‘work’ skills – Reflecting Wolf emphasis
  15. 15. Measures affecting young people • Extension of UTC system – Doubling of target – Funded through Academy pot – 2 phase learning programme – Partnership model • Development of youth entrepreneurship – Development of Enterprise Champions Programme – Roll out of Tenner Tycoon – Creation of enterprise societies in FE/HE
  16. 16. 2. The strategy in a bit more detail Louis Coiffait
  17. 17. Measures for providers & employers 1. Increase in apprenticeship places 2. Roll-out of NEA system 3. Recreation of Enterprise Zones 4. Introduction of new TIC system 5. Develop new funding schemes (RGF, GIF) 6. Creation of Green Investment bank 7. Development of LEP network 8. Promote growth in 8 key economic sectors 9. Misc.
  18. 18. • Government committed to funding <360,000 apprentices of all ages this year • £250m to fund 75,000 new adult apprenticeships announced in 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review • Now budget announces £180m package for a further 50,000 apprenticeships over the next four years in this budget – 40,000 ‘young apprentice’ places, particularly for young unemployed people e.g. through progression from the 16-24 work experience programme. – 10,000 adult places, advanced and higher level through business consortia, supported by grants, • Expand number of available places, especially SMEs, potentially via group schemes • Convincing employers, especially SMEs, to invest time and money in training is hard, especially with new requirements around number of directed learning hours Increase in apprenticeship places 1/2
  19. 19. • Development of a new higher level Apprenticeship and a new Level 5 framework, providing a route for engineering Apprentices to professional accreditation • Expand flexible advanced and higher Apprenticeships which suit the freelance business models often seen in the digital and creative industries. • UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) to look at a potential new accountancy Apprenticeship • „40,000 apprenticeships a "drop in the ocean … the Government's growth Budget has left the most disadvantaged young people in the shade” – Anne Marie Carrie, Chief Executive of Barnardo's in the Independent • “The aspiration to create a number of new apprenticeships fails to take account of the limited progress towards previous targets and will go only a short way to meeting the huge demand for this mode of study and training, let alone properly address the need for progression in vocational learning” NUS via Politics.co.uk Increase in apprenticeship places 2/2
  20. 20. Roll-out of NEA system 1. Pilot a National Enterprise Allowance, providing funding and support for budding entrepreneurs 2. Being tested out in Merseyside 3. Gradually rolled out from this April
  21. 21. Recreation of Enterprise Zones 1. Funding to support the creation of up to 21 new Enterprise Zones 2. Similar to zones created in the 1980s 3. Benefit from lower taxes, simpler planning controls and levels of regulation, as well as new superfast broadband 4. Total per business discount of up to £275,000 over 5 years 5. <25 years of business rates growth within each zone retained and shared by the local authorities to support their 6. economic priorities
  22. 22. Introduction of new TIC system 1. Developing a network of Technology and Innovation Centres 2. Government committing over £200m to create a network of centres. 3. The first centre, specialising in high-value manufacturing opened this month; integrates the activities of existing high performing centres in Rotherham, Coventry, Strathclyde, Sedgefield, Redcar and Bristol
  23. 23. Develop new funding schemes: RGF, GIF 1. RGF = Regional Growth Fund 2. £1.4bn Fund established 3. Intended to provide support for regional growth activity 4. Round 2 bids start in April 5. GIF = Growth and Innovation Fund 6. Scheme launched this month providing £50m match funding for each of the next two years to support company-based skill development and enterprise
  24. 24. Creation of Green Investment bank 1. Commitment to ensure the UK has the resources to move towards a low-carbon economy 2. Government already committed £1bn to support the creation of a Green Bank 3. Budget provided for a further £2m to enable the Bank to become operative from 2012 4. Begins operation in 2012-13, a year earlier than previously anticipated
  25. 25. Development of LEP network 1. LEP = Local Enterprise Partnership 2. Approval of 24 LEPs in the Local Growth White Paper on 28 October 2010 3. A further 7, including one covering the whole of London, subsequently announced, taking the total to 31 • Non-statutory bodies assume many responsibilities of Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) and are able to bid from Regional Growth Fund
  26. 26. Promote growth in 8 key economic sectors 1. “march of the makers” Guardian 2. Eight detailed, with action plans, in the Plan for Growth: a) healthcare and life sciences b) digital and creative industries c) professional and business services d) retail e) construction f) space g) tourism h) advanced manufacturing e.g. new export credits, a technology and innovation centre and nine new university centres. 3. removing barriers in areas such as planning and regulation 4. partly focusing on raising skill levels
  27. 27. Misc. measures for providers & employers • £25m a year for commissioning and funding education business link services to be withdrawn 31 March, schools free to 'buy it in' @IEBE @YPLA • £100m new capital funding to support science and innovation campuses • Support the Careers Profession Alliance to improve training for careers professionals in subject-specific specialisms, including STEM. • Increase the number of industry school visits (e.g. by Apprenticeship Ambassadors). • Strengthen STEM promotion activities, including STEMNET. • Professional and Business Services Group (PSBG) - chaired by Sir Michael Snyder - will launch a ‘Log of Professional Readiness’, in which school leavers and undergraduates can record work experience, relevant gap year activity, positions of responsibility and leadership, active citizenship and volunteering, and extra-curricular investment in Employability.
  28. 28. 3. How might it play out? Brendan O‟Grady
  29. 29. Some letters and numbers OBR GDP GNP 20.6% BOE MPC CBI SMEs OECD 8.1% IMF G20 BBC 2.53m ITV 974,000 SKY
  30. 30. Who’s driving this thing? The Prime Minister? The Chancellor? The Lib Dems? Alexander? The Quad? Cable? Us?
  31. 31. x • x The road ahead… General Election 2015? 2012: recovery or rethink? The political mood and the Lib Dems Local elections May 5th
  32. 32. Sharp Turns?
  33. 33. 4.How does it leave the education & skills system? 5.What do you think? Steve Besley
  34. 34. The shape of the new system 1/2 • Focused on what works and what delivers • Collaboration driven by function, need and efficiency as much as by policy and ideology • Increased reliance on data (performance and labour market) • More transparent forms of accountability (national, local, institutional) • Burden of fees shifted to individuals, Government support restricted to the needy • Regulation aimed at qual suppliers and monitored against international performance measures • Learning programmes built around core subjects, greater choice beyond that
  35. 35. The shape of the new system 2/2 • Providers seen as agents of change for engagement, participation and social mobility • School improvement a mixture of external levers (choice, competition, accountability) and internal structures (leaders, auditors, teachers) • 14-16, 16-19 two distinct phases within one all-through phase where specialisation defines the nature of progression • FE continuing to provide traditional pipeline of skilled workforce but within more competitive market place • HE becoming more diverse in response to user funding • White knuckle ride as Government seeks to effect transformation within one term
  36. 36. The government is hoping growth in the economy will pick up in 2012. How confident are you that this will happen? 1. Very 2. Reasonably 3. Not very 0% 21% 79%
  37. 37. Do you think the measures in the growth plan will; 1. Make a lot of difference 2. Make a little bit of difference 3. Make no difference 3% 77% 20%
  38. 38. Do you think Wolf and the growth plan will help improve job prospects for young people? 1. lot 2. A little 3. Not much at all
  39. 39. What’s your biggest concern over the coming year? 1. Rise in unemployment 2. Rise in inflation 3. Lack of economic growth 4. Not having an alarm clock
  40. 40. Please do three things before you leave… • Put all trays, cups and dishes on the racks • Complete and leave your feedback form • Leave your voting pad Thank you! Housekeeping
  41. 41. Hot Breakfast Briefing The growth strategy April 11 2011 Steve Besley (@SteveBesley on Twitter) Louis Coiffait (@LouisMMCoiffait on Twitter) Brendan O’Grady www.pearsoncpl.com