This document discusses trends in higher education and skills provision in the UK. It notes that the number of part-time students has declined 40% since 2010, while total HE sector income is up slightly. Alternative models are emerging, like apprenticeships, large employers targeting school leavers, and the rising costs of university in the US. Online learning through MOOCs is growing rapidly but interactions are still important. The document considers how provision can better support groups like mature, international and postgraduate students through specialization and flexible online options.

1. Changing HE / higher skills provision
22nd March 2013
Louis Coiffait, Head of Research
@LouisMMCoiffait
The Pearson Think Tank
thepearsonthinktank.com

2. The Pearson Think Tank
Who are we and what do we do?
 Independent think tank focused on education access and quality
 Ongoing programme of research and thought-leadership
 The Academies Commission (with the RSA)
 Enterprise and Entrepreneurship Education
 pearsonblueskies.com, on the future of higher education
 Careers2020
 University admissions
 Tuition fees
 Policy intelligence, analysis and comment e.g. Policy Watch, blogs
 All of our content and activities are free

3. The future of HE?

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5. Reminding ourselves of the current context
Why might HE / higher-level skills matter?
 2008 recession, 2013 0.6% UK growth, maybe even triple dip?
 Still c. 1m young people unemployed
 Plan A austerity, £11.5bn savings this Spending Round
 UK Plc, competitive knowledge economy, Made (better) in Britain?
 Radical changes to make UK HE / skills systems more ‘responsive’…

6. Reminding ourselves of the current context
Why might HE / higher-level skills matter?
ONS via Guardian http://goo.gl/VyPR6

7. Trends in UK HE / higher skills provision
What is currently happening on the ground?
 Funding increasingly follows learners in England, 4 nations diverging
 Increasingly competitive and marketised system, student ‘choice’
e.g. competing for 115k ABB students, Key Information Set (KIS)
 Total HE sector income up 2.8% and ‘efficiencies’ made...
but wide variation, low surpluses, 3.5% fall in 2012/13 learners
 Growing (narrow?) focus on outcomes by all stakeholders
education = employment = £ / growth / competitiveness ?
 Institutions seeking to be distinctive and attractive
e.g. How many are ‘The employability university’

8. Changing UK HE / higher skills
What alternatives are emerging, other than work?
 (Higher) apprenticeships, with strong government backing
…but ongoing challenges to delivering them well at scale
Why don’t more (than 2) HEI’s deliver higher apprenticeships?
 Large employers increasingly targeting school leavers
sometimes incorporating HE… the Morrisons Academy at Hull Uni
sometimes not… Deloitte BrightStart with professional quals
 Cost of HE; recent UK rises, USA already high
e.g. 2-year $100k Thiel fellowships (not to go to uni)
 Corrosive narrative of ‘too many thick kids on Mickey-mouse courses’

9. Changing UK HE / higher skills
How is part-time provision changing?
 -40% since 2010 (105k decline) - more sensitive to fees?
 Hard to measure, highly variable provision, blurred definitions
 Lower completion / achievement - impact on rankings
 A complex picture, needs careful institutional / national focus
 IES identified four types; career enhancers, career changers, non-
career learners and career entrants and suggested FE and private
providers have the most expansion potential
Institute for Employment Studies (IES) http://goo.gl/ibV15

10. Changing UK HE / higher skills
Can provision change to target/support other groups?
 How do these groups overlap with part-time learners?
 Mature learners
 Postgrads
 International students
 Opportunities for institutional and course specialisation?

11. Changing UK HE / higher skills
How is online provision changing?
 MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs (hype?)
 Face-to-face interaction can never be replaced, only augmented
 It is an acceleration of change, but the debate often too polarised
 Tends to miss the c.40 year history of distance and open learning
 Unclear where it leads the sector yet (though I’m pretty hopeful)
 Stupid name, soon MOOCs will just be known as … courses
(appropriately blended and personalised for the learner)
 Open up access. Make provision cheaper, flexible, data-supported
 How are institutions using technology to support their mission?
…and to target / support different specific groups?

12. Thank you!
thepearsonthinktank.com
@louismmcoiffait
…any questions?