Presentation on AI

1. LuXetVeritas
Yale Class of 1965 Annual Dinner
Yale Club of New York
October 26, 2018
David Roscoe
Artificial Intelligence:
The What and the So-What

2. NYC Easter Parade: 1903
Can You Spot the Car?

3. NYC Easter Parade: 1915
Now, Can You Spot the Horse?

4. Humans are not wired to anticipate
exponential change
Bill Gates: Digital Penetration
“People
overestimate what
will happen in the
next three years,
and greatly
underestimate
what will happen
in the next ten.”

5. “Artificial intelligence is more profound
than humanity’s mastery of electricity
or fire.”
Sundar Pichai, CEO Google
Davos, February 2018

6. Why I’m Hooked
And Fred Will be
16
Profound Transformation Will
Occur
 Unstoppable progress
 Huge benefits
 Much At Stake
 Human values
 Future of work
 Destiny of human
species
By the Year 2030…
So I Ask Myself…
What Does Fred Need to Know?

7. My Involvement in the AI Community
 2016: Hastings Center Project: “Ethics of AI”
 Funded by Future of Life Institute (Elon Musk, Max
Tegmark)
 Public results presented in NYC and Yale in Dec 2018
 2017: “Partnership on AI for Benefit of Humans &
Society” (PAI)
 Non-profit founded by AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, IBM,
MSFT
 Kickoff—Berlin Oct 2017; Status—San Francisco, Nov
2018
 2018: Global Governance of AI—Can it be
accomplished?
 Build guardrails, not stop signs

8. AI 101: What is it?
A Simple definition How is it created?
 It is software that
mimics actions
requiring human
intelligence
 planning, learning,
reasoning, predicting
 problem solving,
knowledge
representation
 perception, motion,
manipulation
 social skills, and
creativity
 Two distinct steps
1. It LEARNS how to
do these intelligent
actions
1. It ACTS
 By ASSISTING humans
 By AUGMENTING
humans
 By REPLACING
humans

9. AI 101: Types of AI
 Narrow AI: Trained for specific tasks
 Effective, but inflexible…sweeping the world today
 Growth drivers: huge databases, massive compute
power
 Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Equal to
humans
 Obstacles: common sense, adaptable, “learn how to
learn”
 Timing: experts disagree
 Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI): Smarter than
humans
 Hollywood fixation: Hal, The Matrix, Terminator,

10. AI 101: AI Learns in Two Ways
 Machine Learning: “Black box” pattern
recognition
 Most prevalent today
 The more data and compute power, the better
 Finds patterns undetectable by humans, cannot
explain itself
 Uses: identifying, translating, predicting
 Reinforcement Learning: “Learns like a baby”
 Hottest new technique
 Run millions of trial-and-error experiments
 Ratchets its way to extraordinary proficiency
 Uses: strategy, decision-making, human interaction

11. What Can AI Do Now?
 Games have created huge media buzz
 2016: Alpha Go beats world champions (Machine
Learning)
 2017: Alpha Zero beats Alpha GO (Reinforcement
Learning)
 But AI is ALREADY MUCH MORE than
games
 It SEES: facial recognition for Chinese police
 It HEARS: better than humans in transcribing
speech into text
 It UNDERSTANDS: reads lips better than expert lip
readers
 It WORKS: does 150 person-days of legal work in

12. The AI Paradox
 “As soon as AI successfully solves a problem and
becomes useful, the problem is no longer
considered AI.” --Gary Kasparov
 AI is anything that hasn’t been done yet.”--Douglas
Hofstadter

13. AI Will Transform Every Industry

14. Industry Transformation:
Two High Value Opportunities
 Healthcare: Better, safer, fairer, cheaper
 Doctors: Diagnostics, treatment selection, surgical
assistance
 Patients: Compliance monitoring, physical exams
 Cures: Genetic diseases, drug design
 Public health: Epidemic forecasting
 Transportation: Safer, greener, cheaper, more
efficient
 Business model: Selling cars  Mobility as a Service
 Car/truck fleets: on demand, self-driving, connected to
smart roads
 Phased rollout: assist, augment, replace humans
 Urban design: less parking, mass transit

15. Growth is Unstoppable
 Innovation
 Competition

16. Innovation :
On the Cusp of a Cambrian
Explosion
 AI software: Just getting started
 Creativity: New algorithms coming
 Democratization: millions of developers, globally available
platforms
 Breakthrough: AI will create AI…A recursive cycle with no
bounds!
 Technology convergence: Unforeseeable synergies
 The Internet of Things (IOT)
 Robotics
 Genetic Engineering
 Virtual Reality
 Nanotechnology
 3D Printing
 Block chain

17. The Internet of Things (IOT):
A Network of Sensors
 How IOT works: Sensors capture and send data
 Heat, light, motion, chemicals, moisture, usage, pictures,
videos, etc.
 Transmitted to a local or central AI to analyze and act
 Where IOT will be installed: Anywhere, everywhere
 Cars, trucks, roads, ships, factories, buildings, power
grids, farms, food, appliances, clothes, packages,
medical devices…and people!!
 Why IOT will explode: Tinier, more flexible, cheaper
 8 billion IOT sensors today, 50 billion by 2020, 1 trillion
by 2030
 IOT databases will double in size every 18 months

18. High Stakes Competition:
The Race for Global Dominance
 “The country who becomes the
leader in AI will rule the world.”
--Vladimir Putin, Sept 2017
“This is a two-horse
race…all other countries
will be forced to align
with either the US or
China.”
--Kai Fu Lee. Sept 2018

19. USA vs. China:
The Tale of the Tape
 USA’s Edge: An Early Lead based on AI-centric Ecosystem
 Titans: AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, IBM, MSFT
 Mindset: Commercial dominance, win or die
 Horizon: Next fifteen years
 Advantage: Strong ties to best-in-world academia
 Investment: $60B R&D, $27B of VC capital, 2100 AI startups
 Culture: Mistrust between corporations, government, and
citizens
 China’s Edge: A Comprehensive Ambitious National
Strategy
 Titans: Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, integral part of President Xi’s
plans
 Mindset: Achieve commercial and geopolitical AI dominance
by 2030
 Horizon: Next century
 Advantage: Massive databases, IOT deployment, research
ecosystem
 Investment: Surveillance, military, smart cities, e-commerce

20.  Safety
 Benefit: Self-driving will cut 40k annual deaths in half
 Obstacles: testing, local laws, insurance, culture
 Rollout: perfect safety, or only better than humans?
 Security
 Autonomous killer drones would transform warfare
forever
 WW3 is inevitable if one country dominates. –Musk,
Putin
 AI scientists plea for a permanent ban, but who will
listen?
 Privacy
 Control: Who owns your ecommerce and social media
data?
 Surveillance: Neighborhood safety, but at what price?
Social and Ethical Implications:
Today’s Hot Button Issues

21. Deeper Concerns:
Transparency, Fairness, and Trust
 Transparency
 Explainability: AI decisions are opaque, mysterious
 Mistakes: Should a doctor override an AI diagnosis?
 Accountability: Who is liable for AI’s errors?
 Fairness
 Bias: Deeply embedded in human databases, hard to
scrub
 Minorities: Discriminatory decisions--bank loans, job
offers, bail
 Equality: Who shares AI benefits? Will inequality
worsen?
 Trust
 Authenticity: Fake news/videos erode trust in public
institutions
 Care-bots and sex-bots: Essentially “benevolent

22. Ultimate Goal:
Alignment of AI with Human Values
 The Challenge: Do no harm, benefit all of
humanity
 Safety, privacy, fairness, authenticity: conflicts and
tradeoffs
 Individual preferences, social and ethical norms,
values
 Community and national borders add complexity
 The Unanswered Questions
 Whose norms and values should guide AI’s
decisions?
 Who gets to decide that question?

23. AI and Jobs:
New Economy or a New Society?
 Two powerful counter forces being produced by AI
 Jobs will be destroyed: physical, repetitive, structured
decisions
 Jobs will be created: empathy, unstructured, creativity,
leadership
 Experts disagree: which force is stronger?
 Bulls: A New Economy ahead (Industrial Revolution
4.0)
 Seen this movie before; more Schumpeter’s “creative
destruction”
 After a temporary disruption, a better economy will
emerge
 Bears: A New Society ahead (New Social Contract)
 Permanent job crisis: expectation of a job no longer valid
 Human impact: financial security, self-respect, dignity,

24. For 2.7 Billion Global Workers in
2030:
A Rocky 12 Years Lies Ahead
 McKinsey forecast: Greatest labor market disruption
in history
 Global job market: 400mm (15%) lost jobs, up to 800mm
(30%)
 Disparities: India least, Japan most; USA lost jobs—
45mm (30%)
 Good news: Bright future is achievable, but not
inevitable
 Job training, safety nets, portable insurance
 Private/public partnerships
 Education system transformation
 Bad news: The transition phase will be brutal
 Both blue collar and white collar jobs at risk
 Populism will intensify
 Desperate need for political leadership

25. The Future of AI:
Will It Equal or Exceed Humans?
 Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
 Deep controversies over feasibility and timing
 Ray Kurzweil: 2030
 Daniel Kahnemann: At least 100 years, if ever
 Consensus estimate: 2050…in your children’s lifetimes
 Artificial Super Intelligence (SGI)
 Once AGI arrives, a process of recursive self-
improvement begins
 SGI will quickly follow
 Will SGI acquire emotions, gain consciousness?
 Are controls even possible?

26. Artificial Super Intelligence:
Implications for the Human Species
 Utopians: Ray Kurzweil, Max Tegmark
 The “”Singularity” is human destiny
 Biological embodiment is unnecessary; “Life 3.0’”
 Dystopians: Elon Musk, Nick Bostrom
 We either become SGI “pets”
 Or we become extinct
 Agnostics: Mark Zuckerberg, Stephen Hawking,
Stuart Russell, Yuval Harari
 Ignore SGI: It’s a distraction from immediate issues
 Prepare now: Precautionary principle

27. Super Intelligence: Heaven or Hell?
“…but we CANNOT KNOW if we will be infinitely helped
or ignored and sidelined by it, or conceivably destroyed
I think Stephen Hawking got it right:
“AI will exceed human intelligence…
But Let’s Be Prepared For It

28. To My Grandson Fred in 2030
On His 16th Birthday
 You’ve grown up in a revolutionary era
 Untold wealth and power have been created
 Our planet is safer, healthier, greener, and fairer
 (But maybe not?)
 You’ll never need a drivers license
 You’ll have a job if you remain curious, creative,
and resilient
 Stay alert—AGI is just around the corner
 So soon you’ll know whether Heaven or Hell
awaits you

29. At Our 65th Annual Reunion in 2030
 These last 12 years have been unbelievably
wild
 I hope I’m around to catch the ending
 How about you?
THANKS

30. LuXetVeritas
Yale Class of 1965 Annual Dinner
Yale Club of New York
October 26, 2018
David Roscoe
Artificial Intelligence:
The What and the So-What