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Heikot signaalit
tulevaisuuden
avartajina
10.1.2019
#heikotsignaalit @sitrafund
Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tul...
WEAK SIGNALS AND EXPLORING THE FUTURE
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Weak signals and exploring
the future
Geoff Mulgan, SITRA, January 2019
A storm in Thailand?
Jolts to stock market prices?
K-pop triumphant?
Vegans attacking restaurants?
Huawei attacks/arrests?...
Tyromancy
‘The future’s already here – it’s
just unevenly distributed’
William Gibson
What is a
weak
signal?
Non-obvious, non-
linear, not too
visible…
How? Art, science or luck?
Who? Experts, the powerful, the
powerless?
Public / Social
Private / Corporate
Academic Mainstream
culture
But…
the trouble with weak signals – lots of them
and most misleading!
More acorns than oaks; no formulae; timing
is a cha...
Geoff Mulgan
Innovation
Strong signals and megatrends …
!
J to S?
Dator’s Three ‘Laws’ of Futures…
1. The ‘future’ cannot be predicted because the
‘future’ does not exist.
‘What Futures St...
Oral Tradition
Shamans, mystics,
priests etc.
First Wave
Second Wave
Early Written Age
Sīmă Qiān, Ibn Khaldun,
Nostradamus...
A Taxonomy of Futures Methods
Gathering intelligence about the
future:
- Horizon Scanning
- 7 Questions
- The Issues Paper...
2015
2013
2017
2018 2019….
2016
2014
Future Londoner
Personas with Arup
CrimeForce:
Interactive
Scenarios
FutureFest
Immer...
Horizon scanning or
searching
Any questions?
Any questions?
Source: Travelzoo
Any questions?
Adapted from Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project
Any questions?
Source: Cognitive Edge
Data scanning tools
The Scanner: 3 layers (descriptive, exploratory, functional)
● Lists of relevant activity (e.g.
projects/funding/networkin...
AI in Health: Descriptive analysis example
Artificial intelligence in health
Trends
Categories
Maps
Examples: we are already finding AI needles in grant data haystacks
The overall goal of the Big Data for Better Outcomes (...
Scenarios and stories
The cone of plausibility
Building scenarios
Research ScenariosDrivers of change
Sources: Inc.com, Historical DeWitticisms, Independent.ie
Any questions?
Created by Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project
● What If? Eg what is the smart city visions
actually happened? What counter-
movements would grow?
● Backwards stories: a...
Simulation and Games:
experience and see
possible futures
DECC2050 IMPACT Stage Your City
Real world examples
SuperBugs ConsortiumInnovate!
What Nesta has been working on
The year is 2020, the week before Budget Day... Eg
planning for flying cars
Icon made by Freepik from
www.flaticon.com
Speculative design
Any questions?
Source: Strange Telemetry
Any questions?
Source: Smithery
A
Any questions?
Source: Smithery
How? Art, science or luck?
Who? Experts, the powerful, the
powerless?
How to use?
● Immerse in weak signals – the marginal, possible, surprising
● Get a feel, and keep an eye as some grow – an...
serendipity favours
the prepared mind
Q&A
Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tul...
HEIKOT SIGNAALIT SELVITYS:
TULEVAISUUKSIEN AVARTAMINEN
Mikko Dufva, Sitra
Miksi heikot
signaalit?
Tulevaisuusajattelun muodot
Tulevaisuuteen
varautuminen
Tulevaisuuksien
suunnittelu
Tulevaisuuksien
avartaminen
vrt. Mille...
350 000 katselukertaa
Heikko signaali
merkki mahdollisesti
nousevasta asiasta
tai
ensioire mahdollisesta
muutoksesta
Heikko signaali riippuu havaitsijastaan
Sitran signaalityössä fokus on Suomen ja suomalaisen
yhteiskunnan kehittämisen kan...
Tutkain: työkalu signaalikeskusteluun
Mitä nämä signaalit
kertovat tulevaisuudesta?
Miltä oma
tutkaimesi näyttää?
6
2
8
lukua heikoista
signaaleista ja niiden
hyödyntämisestä
lukua havaituista
signaaleista ja niiden
tulkinnoista
työkalu...
Valikoima
signaaleja
Otsikko
keskustelun
herättäjänä
Sanaselitykset
Sisältö
tiivistetty
kuvaan
Signaalien
pohjalta tehty
t...
psst…. muista myös tämä
Mikä on
ihminen?
Kuka päättää
tulevaisuudessa?
Mitä tulevat sukupolvet
ajattelevat nykyajasta?
Miten teemme asioita
tuleva...
Signaalitietokanta
https://kumu.io/mdufva/ennakointi#signaalit
“Any useful idea about the futures should
appear to be ridiculous”
Jim Dator
KOMMENTTI SELVITYKSEEN
Leena Ilmola, IIASA
10.1.2019
Sitra Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina
Leena Ilmola
Advanced Systems Analysis Program
Weak signals as w...
What is important – what is not? Composed in 2009
Nations (or industries) are not able to create global rules > optimizati...
What is important – what is not Example 2
behavio
r
developer
USER
COMPANYADVERTISERS
data
Google
Owners of
Alphabet
Deep
...
KIITOS!
Ottakaa yhteyttä ilmola@iiasa.ac.at
Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tul...
HEIKKOJEN SIGNAALIEN
KERÄÄMINEN JA TULKINTA
Soile Ollila, Business Finland
Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia
#HEIKOTSIGNAALIT
sitra.fi | seuraavaerä.fi
@sitrafund
Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina
Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina
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Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina

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Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina

  1. 1. Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina 10.1.2019 #heikotsignaalit @sitrafund
  2. 2. Tervetuloa! Veera Heinonen, Sitra Weak signals and exploring the future Geoff Mulgan, Nesta Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen Mikko Dufva, Sitra Kommentti selvitykseen Leena Ilmola, IIASA Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta Soile Ollila, Business Finland Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia #heikotsignaalit Ohjelma
  3. 3. WEAK SIGNALS AND EXPLORING THE FUTURE Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
  4. 4. Weak signals and exploring the future Geoff Mulgan, SITRA, January 2019
  5. 5. A storm in Thailand? Jolts to stock market prices? K-pop triumphant? Vegans attacking restaurants? Huawei attacks/arrests? Bond yields signaling US recession? Reemergence of anti-capitalist conservatism?
  6. 6. Tyromancy
  7. 7. ‘The future’s already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’ William Gibson
  8. 8. What is a weak signal? Non-obvious, non- linear, not too visible…
  9. 9. How? Art, science or luck? Who? Experts, the powerful, the powerless?
  10. 10. Public / Social Private / Corporate Academic Mainstream culture
  11. 11. But… the trouble with weak signals – lots of them and most misleading! More acorns than oaks; no formulae; timing is a challenge So the key issue is future sensitivity …
  12. 12. Geoff Mulgan Innovation
  13. 13. Strong signals and megatrends …
  14. 14. !
  15. 15. J to S?
  16. 16. Dator’s Three ‘Laws’ of Futures… 1. The ‘future’ cannot be predicted because the ‘future’ does not exist. ‘What Futures Studies, and Is not’ Professor James Dator, University of Hawaii 2. Any useful idea about the future should appear ridiculous. 3. We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us.
  17. 17. Oral Tradition Shamans, mystics, priests etc. First Wave Second Wave Early Written Age Sīmă Qiān, Ibn Khaldun, Nostradamus, Thomas More, Robert Boyle. Third Wave Extraction and enlightenment Comte, H.G. Wells, Jules Verne, William F. Ogburn, Soviet planning Fourth Wave Systems and cybernetics RAND, SRI, la prospective, Herman Kahn, Shell, GBN, The Limits to Growth Fifth Wave Complexity & emergence Integral Futures, experiential futures, anticipatory systems Wendy Shultz, APF 2012 Creative Commons Five Ages of Futures
  18. 18. A Taxonomy of Futures Methods Gathering intelligence about the future: - Horizon Scanning - 7 Questions - The Issues Paper - Delphi Exploring the dynamics of change: - Driver Mapping/ Scenarios - Axes of Uncertainty Describing what the future might be like: - Speculative Design - Visioning - SWOT Analysis - Science-Fiction Developing / testing policy & strategy: - Simulation & games - Policy Stress-testing - Backcasting - Roadmapping
  19. 19. 2015 2013 2017 2018 2019…. 2016 2014 Future Londoner Personas with Arup CrimeForce: Interactive Scenarios FutureFest Immersive Garden Participatory Futures Toolkit
  20. 20. Horizon scanning or searching
  21. 21. Any questions?
  22. 22. Any questions? Source: Travelzoo
  23. 23. Any questions? Adapted from Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project
  24. 24. Any questions? Source: Cognitive Edge
  25. 25. Data scanning tools
  26. 26. The Scanner: 3 layers (descriptive, exploratory, functional) ● Lists of relevant activity (e.g. projects/funding/networking) ● Evolution of trends over time ● Maps of activity ● Compare activity across different themes (e.g. MeSH terms, societal needs) ● Gain inspiration & new ideas (e.g. links between topics) ● Explore emergent trends ● Understand non-health innovations that may have health implications (e.g. architecture) ● Download data and perform own analyses ● Export visualisations ● Tune results according to specific parameters (e.g. more or less sensitive thresholds) I have a question/topic of interest I’d like to explore Access Scanner online
  27. 27. AI in Health: Descriptive analysis example Artificial intelligence in health Trends Categories Maps
  28. 28. Examples: we are already finding AI needles in grant data haystacks The overall goal of the Big Data for Better Outcomes (BD4BO) programme is to facilitate the use of ‘big data’ to promote the development of value-based, outcomes-focused healthcare systems in Europe. Errors in medical documents represent a critical issue that can adversely affect healthcare quality and safety. Physician use of speech recognition (SR) technology has risen in recent years due to its ease of use and efficiency at the point of care. However, high error rates, upwards of 10-23%, have been observed in SR-generated medical documents. Error correction and content editing can be time consuming for clinicians. A solution to this problem is to improve accuracy through automated error detection using natural language processing (NLP). Beacon is a mobile platform for anonymous group therapy powered by natural language processing. Can a better understanding of your personal characteristics help unlock new insights into disease? Could your credit score, your income and your shopping habits help predict whether you are about to have a heart attack? This project focuses on people with diabetes - specifically looking at whether linking big atypical, non-health data sets with health data can reliably predict who is likely to benefit from a health intervention or who is not. Under this grant, the Center for Digital Democracy (CDD), in partnership with the Berkeley Media Studies Group (BMSG), will carry out analysis, convening, and outreach activities to build awareness of trends in digital marketing; the goal will be to provide an updated and in-depth examination of practices that drive marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages and to identify the potential use of these digital- marketing technologies to shape consumer demand to drive the reduction of childhood obesity. We create neurotechnology platforms that help people tell their health story using short videos paired with artificial intelligence and ML.
  29. 29. Scenarios and stories
  30. 30. The cone of plausibility
  31. 31. Building scenarios Research ScenariosDrivers of change
  32. 32. Sources: Inc.com, Historical DeWitticisms, Independent.ie
  33. 33. Any questions? Created by Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project
  34. 34. ● What If? Eg what is the smart city visions actually happened? What counter- movements would grow? ● Backwards stories: assume a zero carbon world, or anti-discrimination ideas extend to intelligence
  35. 35. Simulation and Games: experience and see possible futures
  36. 36. DECC2050 IMPACT Stage Your City Real world examples
  37. 37. SuperBugs ConsortiumInnovate! What Nesta has been working on
  38. 38. The year is 2020, the week before Budget Day... Eg planning for flying cars Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  39. 39. Speculative design
  40. 40. Any questions? Source: Strange Telemetry
  41. 41. Any questions? Source: Smithery A
  42. 42. Any questions? Source: Smithery
  43. 43. How? Art, science or luck? Who? Experts, the powerful, the powerless?
  44. 44. How to use? ● Immerse in weak signals – the marginal, possible, surprising ● Get a feel, and keep an eye as some grow – and be faster to respond
  45. 45. serendipity favours the prepared mind
  46. 46. Q&A
  47. 47. Tervetuloa! Veera Heinonen, Sitra Weak signals and exploring the future Geoff Mulgan, Nesta Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen Mikko Dufva, Sitra Kommentti selvitykseen Leena Ilmola, IIASA Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta Soile Ollila, Business Finland Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia #heikotsignaalit Ohjelma
  48. 48. HEIKOT SIGNAALIT SELVITYS: TULEVAISUUKSIEN AVARTAMINEN Mikko Dufva, Sitra
  49. 49. Miksi heikot signaalit?
  50. 50. Tulevaisuusajattelun muodot Tulevaisuuteen varautuminen Tulevaisuuksien suunnittelu Tulevaisuuksien avartaminen vrt. Miller 2018
  51. 51. 350 000 katselukertaa
  52. 52. Heikko signaali merkki mahdollisesti nousevasta asiasta tai ensioire mahdollisesta muutoksesta
  53. 53. Heikko signaali riippuu havaitsijastaan Sitran signaalityössä fokus on Suomen ja suomalaisen yhteiskunnan kehittämisen kannalta kiinnostavissa signaaleissa.
  54. 54. Tutkain: työkalu signaalikeskusteluun Mitä nämä signaalit kertovat tulevaisuudesta? Miltä oma tutkaimesi näyttää?
  55. 55. 6 2 8 lukua heikoista signaaleista ja niiden hyödyntämisestä lukua havaituista signaaleista ja niiden tulkinnoista työkalua signaalien tunnistamiseen ja tulkintaan
  56. 56. Valikoima signaaleja Otsikko keskustelun herättäjänä Sanaselitykset Sisältö tiivistetty kuvaan Signaalien pohjalta tehty tulkinta
  57. 57. psst…. muista myös tämä
  58. 58. Mikä on ihminen? Kuka päättää tulevaisuudessa? Mitä tulevat sukupolvet ajattelevat nykyajasta? Miten teemme asioita tulevaisuudessa? Miten teknologiaa voi käyttää väärin? Pitäisikö maailman olla suunnittelu- projekti?
  59. 59. Signaalitietokanta https://kumu.io/mdufva/ennakointi#signaalit
  60. 60. “Any useful idea about the futures should appear to be ridiculous” Jim Dator
  61. 61. KOMMENTTI SELVITYKSEEN Leena Ilmola, IIASA
  62. 62. 10.1.2019 Sitra Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina Leena Ilmola Advanced Systems Analysis Program Weak signals as windows to alternative futures – Commentary
  63. 63. What is important – what is not? Composed in 2009 Nations (or industries) are not able to create global rules > optimization (local fitness) Financial system is centralized, giant banks are closely linked IPR and patent regulation diversifies > concentration of technology development into large corporations that are closely connected and/or emerging innovations Knowledge structures are decentralized, but some dominating hubs either because of their superior resources (Intel) or by their position in the network (Google) Increase of computing power that leads to the fast and equal access to information in resources markets (raw material market, labor market, financial market). World of Volatility Nations are forced to create global rules by global threat (climate change, collapse of biological environment, volcanic activity, nuclear war, antibiotics resistant diseases) IPR regulation is supporting the concentration of technology development into a few large corporations that are launching competing technologies Political and corporate power are integrated into one decision making system Wealth generation is centralized, investment s in technology at the top of the hierarchy Global financial system has collapsed and taken over by global gvt/blocs/groups Periods of Stability & Turbulence Open source and self-organization in the virtual world and regulation in the real economy Split of industries into areas, where the regulation/ rules of the game differ – such as government owned and free industries External constraints (such as wars, political systems, ideological blocks, diseases) are separating some geographical areas or technology fields or societies from each another. Strong supporting structures prevent development of a domain (agriculture). Value systems block global interaction (such as religious fundamentalism). Multidynamics Casti, J., Ilmola, L., Rouvinen, P., & Wilenius, M. (2011). Extreme events. Helsinki: Taloustieto Oy.
  64. 64. What is important – what is not Example 2 behavio r developer USER COMPANYADVERTISERS data Google Owners of Alphabet Deep Mind ? PVN projekti, STN https://www.jyu.fi/it/en/researc h/publications/reports-on- scientific-computing-and- optimization/reports/digitalizati on-of-global-economy-and- public-sector-funding- report1.pdf
  65. 65. KIITOS! Ottakaa yhteyttä ilmola@iiasa.ac.at
  66. 66. Tervetuloa! Veera Heinonen, Sitra Weak signals and exploring the future Geoff Mulgan, Nesta Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen Mikko Dufva, Sitra Kommentti selvitykseen Leena Ilmola, IIASA Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta Soile Ollila, Business Finland Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia #heikotsignaalit Ohjelma
  67. 67. HEIKKOJEN SIGNAALIEN KERÄÄMINEN JA TULKINTA Soile Ollila, Business Finland Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia
  68. 68. #HEIKOTSIGNAALIT
  69. 69. sitra.fi | seuraavaerä.fi @sitrafund

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