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April 29, 2022
Market Trends Workshop
Non-Alcoholic Beverages
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Unique Beverage Industry Expertise
for Providing “Added-Value” to Selected Clients
Beverage Marketing Capabilities
Cutting Edge Insights: New Age Emergence, Multiple Beverage Competition,
Specialty Beer Opportunity, Bottled Water Dominance, Hyper-Category
Competition, Micro-Marketing Age
Beverage Marketing Corporation utilizes an integrated model for providing information, analysis
and advice to beverage industry clients
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Beverage Marketing Capabilities
All data in this presentation is supplied by:
And introducing The Beverage Strategist, BMC’s bi-weekly newsletter
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Agenda
Market Overview
Key Trends
Category Updates
Projections
Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic
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State of the Industry – The Good and the Bad
Beverage Headlines
5
4
3
2
1 The total U.S. beverage market rebounded in 2021 after relatively soft
performance in 2020 due to the pandemic
Carbonated soft drink (CSD) volume returned to growth in 2021 after many
years of declines
Bottled water became the largest U.S. beverage category ever in 2021,
surpassing CSDs’ 2004 high point of 15.3 billion gallons
Niche categories continued to outperform most traditional mass-market
categories with new segments still emerging
Unprecedented input cost increases may put a damper on beverage volume
growth in 2022
Market Overview
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Implication
Health &
Wellness
Growth across categories is attributed to
products/sub-segments that provide consumers
perceived/actual functional health benefits or
health improvements over existing products
More better-for-you beverage
innovation
e.g. hemp-infused beverages
Premiumization
Beverage categories are seeing increasing numbers
of premium offerings, both in terms of price point
and brand marketing
Niche categories
e.g. kombucha, coconut
water etc.
Consumer
Convenience
Consumers want beverages that are easy to carry
The convenience of e-commerce will drive
innovation to overcome the barriers that it faces
with CPG
E-commerce logistics capabilities
e.g. Copper Peak
Logistics
Increasing
Beverage
Variety
Consumers are demanding an ever-widening
variety of beverage options
Sugar continues to be avoided and, in some areas,
is being taxed (e.g. Chicago, Seattle)
Wider array of functional and
targeted brands
Manufacturing flexibility
e.g. short runs
Environmental
Concerns
Environmentally-friendly packaging
capability
e.g. paper, rPET, etc.
Concerns regarding single-use plastic impact
continue to accelerate, but have not yet reached
levels to enact sweeping changes
These key trends are impacting consumer beverage choices today
Major Consumer Trends Impacting the Greater Beverage Market
Market Overview
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COVID has impacted all aspects of the beverage
business but especially how and when people
buy their beverages
Weakened On-
Premise
Strength Off-
Premise
A growing trend accelerates due to COVID,
allowing consumers to limit trips to the store
Weak on-premise sales
especially in restaurants with
improvement in 2021
E-commerce logistics
capabilities
e.g. Copper Peak Logistics
Rise of
E-Commerce
Economic
Turmoil
GDP was soft in 2020 while unemployment
skyrocketed; both have since improved
Improved consumer spending
power, especially for constrained
consumers, anticipated
Home-bound consumers increased off-premise
purchases, while on-premise weakened due to
COVID
Off-premise remains strong,
while on-premise recovery
begins
Big Brands
Endure
In times of uncertainty, big familiar brands remain
Important to consumers
With recovering economy,
they will still benefit, but more
brand experimentation likely
in 2021
COVID has had a far-reaching impact on the beverage industry
Impact of the Pandemic on the Greater Beverage Market
Implication
Market Overview
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Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Department of Labor
After years of positive growth, the economy took a pandemic-driven dip in 2020 but both GDP and
unemployment rate improved in 2021
Unemployment Rate
1933 – 2021
Quarterly GDP Change
1932 – 2021
2000 – 2019 2020 – 2021
1932
-12.9%
1946
-11.6%
2.3%
2.0%
2.9%
1.5%
2.6% 2.4% 2.3%
-5.0%
-32.9%
33.4%
4.0%
-3.5%
6.3% 6.5%
2.3%
6.9%
5.7%
1932 1946 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
1933
24.9%
4.0%
4.7%
5.8%
6.0%
5.5%
5.1%
4.6%
4.6%
5.8%
9.3% 9.6%
9.0%
8.1%
7.4% 6.2%
5.3%
4.9%
4.4%
3.9%
3.7%
3.5%
14.8%
13.3%
11.1%
10.2%
8.1%
6.3%
5.2%
FY 21
3.9%
Market Overview
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Consumer sentiment dipped sharply in 2020 after many years of improvement since the recession
of 2008, and remained soft in 2021
Annual U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index
1995 – 2021
92 94
103 105 106
108
89 90
88
95
89
87 86
64 66
73
68
76
79
84
93
92
97 98 96
82 78
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan
Market Overview
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Agenda
Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic
Market Overview
Key Trends
Category Updates
Projections
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P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. beverage market growth rebounded in 2021 after weakness in 2020 due to the pandemic
• The market has now experienced several consecutive years of modest growth
U.S. Total Beverage Market
Volume Change
2016 – 2021P
2.1%
0.8%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
1.9%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Key Trends
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P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Post-recession revenues have generally outpaced volume growth – a trend that accelerated in
2021 due mostly to inflation
U.S. Total Beverage Market
Change in Volume and Wholesale Dollars
2016 – 2021P
2.1%
0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
0.2%
1.9%
2.6%
1.8%
2.1%
2.8%
0.4%
7.6%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Volume Change Wholesale Dollar Change
Key Trends
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P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
In recent years, refreshment beverages have generally outperformed the overall beverage market
4.2%
0.2%
-3.1%
-13.3%
Refreshment Beverages Beverage Alcohol Traditional Beverages Tap Water
U.S. Beverage Market
Volume Change
2021P
Bottled Water CSD
Energy Drinks Fruit Bevs
RTD Coffee RTD Tea
Sports Drinks VA Water
Beer Spirits Wine
Hot Coffee Hot Tea
Milk
Key Trends
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Most large mass market refreshment beverage categories have struggled while niche categories
have experienced growth
• Bottled water is the primary exception of a mainstream category that has thrived
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market
Volume Change
2021P
4.7%
2.8%
0.7%
3.8% 3.1%
14.0%
16.0%
19.3%
4.2%
Bottled Water CSDs Fruit Bevs Sports Bevs RTD Tea Energy Drinks Value Added
Waters
RTD Coffee TOTAL LRB
Largest Volume Smallest Volume
Key Trends
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Traditional beverages generally have lagged in volume performance in recent years
U.S. Traditional Beverage Market
Volume Change
2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-6.6%
-4.2%
-1.2%
-3.1%
Tea Less RTD Milk Coffee Less RTD TOTAL TRADITIONAL
Key Trends
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One reflection of a healthy beverage industry is the decline of tap water, and tap water
consumption has generally trended down in most years
• In 2021, tap water declines resumed after a pandemic-driven uptick in 2020
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Estimated Tap Water
Volume Change
2021P
-0.5%
-6.6%
-4.0%
-5.3%
-9.4%
-11.5%
-2.6%
23.5%
20.0%
1.3%
5.5%
-2.7%
6.2%
-1.5%
-5.5%
-8.5%
-0.5%
-3.7%
-0.7%
2.1%
-13.3%
'00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06 '06/07 '07/08 '08/09 '09/10 '10/11 '11/12 '12/13 '13/14 '14/15 '15/16 '16/17 '17/18 '18/19 '19/20 '20/21P
Key Trends
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Bottled water has been the biggest volume share gainer, while CSDs have been the largest share
loser over the last five years. Niche categories have experienced some small share gains
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Beverage Market
Volume Share by Category
2016 – 2021P
Others 18.3% Others 18.6% Others 17.8%
Fruit Bevs 5.0% Fruit Bevs 4.4% Fruit Bevs 4.4%
Tea 6.0% Tea 5.6% Tea 5.4%
Milk 9.1% Milk 8.4% Milk 8.0%
Beer 10.5% Beer 10.1% Beer 10.1%
Coffee 11.0% Coffee 10.9% Coffee 10.8%
CSDs 20.0% CSDs 18.4% CSDs 18.8%
Bottled Water
20.1%
Bottled Water
23.6%
Bottled Water
24.7%
2016 2020 2021P
Key Trends
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Bottled water has gained the most volume over the last 10 years while CSDs have lost the most
Decade Comparison
2011 – 2021P
Which Categories Gained, Which Lost Volume?
Category Millions of Gallons 2011/21P CAGR
5.7%
7.7%
2.7%
6.6%
1.5%
14.3%
-2.1%
-1.2%
1.9%
6,273
-1,553
-645
204
239
430
409
492
6,697
Total LRB
CSD
Fruit Beverages
RTD Coffee
RTD Tea
Value-Added Water
Sports Drinks
Energy Drinks
Bottled Water
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Key Trends
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Health and wellness is a key market driver. Beverage categories with health and wellness attributes
are outperforming those without
• Additionally, heightened concerns about health caused by the pandemic could accelerate this trend
Health and Wellness RTD Categories in U.S. Beverage Market
Volume Share
40.3%
59.7%
44.8%
55.2%
Health & Wellness* All Other**
2016 2021P
* Includes bottled water, milk, 100% juice, RTD tea, dairy alternatives, meal replacement drinks, value-added water, coconut water, kombucha,
sports drinks, energy drinks and protein drinks
** Includes CSDs, coffee (including RTD), tea (excluding RTD), fruit drinks, beer, wine, spirits and tap water
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Key Trends
5-Yr CAGR
2.6%
5-Yr CAGR
-1.1%
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Driven by the trend toward healthier refreshment, caloric intake from refreshment beverages has
been steadily declining since 2000
• The slight increase in 2021 is the result of the pandemic and likely temporary
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market
Calories Per Capita Per Day
1990 – 2021P
213
252
263
244 238
230
223
215 211 207 204 201 200 200 200 196 193 189
178 183
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Key Trends
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Sugar intake from refreshment beverages has also seen declines dating back to 2000
• As with calories, the sugar decline has occurred due to the growth of bottled water and increasing number of
low-calorie options in the marketplace
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market
Grams of Sugar Consumption Per Capita Per Day
2000 – 2021P
64 64 64 63
62 61 61
59
57
55 54
53 52 51 51 51 51 50 49
48
46 47
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Key Trends
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Refreshment Beverage Prices on the Rise
Unit Pricing Growth By Beverage Segment in 2021
Accelerating
Holding
Decelerating
Key Trends
Beverages experienced unprecedented retail price increases in 2021 with some segments still
seeing accelerations. Higher prices are likely to continue well into 2022
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; IRI Multi-Outlet + Convenience Last 52 Weeks Ending 12/26/2021
Beverage Category Trending Last Quarter Last 52 Weeks
Sports Beverages +14.3% +12.7%
CSDs +13.2% +9.4%
Sparkling/Seltzer Water +7.1% +6.1%
Juice and Drinks +7.7% +5.7%
Enhanced Water +5.7% +4.7%
Bottled Water +6.3% +5.6%
RTD Tea +6.0% +4.2%
Energy Drinks +3.5% +2.3%
RTD Coffee -0.2% -0.1%
TOTAL LRB +9.5% +7.8%
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Agenda
Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic
Market Overview
Key Trends
Category Updates
Projections
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Carbonated soft drink volume increased in 2021 after 16 consecutive years of volume declines
• Today’s consumers are migrating to healthier options and want more variety
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market
Billions of Gallons and Change
2016 – 2021P
12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.9
-0.8%
-1.3%
-0.4%
-1.1%
-3.7%
2.8%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
-0.7%
Category Updates
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Despite sluggish volume performance, CSD dollars have grown most years
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
25
U. S. CSD Volume and Wholesale Revenue
Billions of Gallons and Wholesale Dollars
2016 – 2021P
12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.9
$52.3 $52.9 $54.2 $55.6
$52.1
$57.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Volume Revenue
% CHANGE
YEAR VOLUME DOLLAR
2016/17 -1.3% 1.2%
2017/18 -0.4% 2.4%
2018/19 -1.1% 2.5%
2019/20 -3.7% -6.3%
2020/21P 2.8% 10.1%
16/21P
CAGR
-0.7% 1.8%
Category Updates
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In recent years, diet CSDs have been outperforming regular
• Improvements in diet sweeteners have helped to bolster the category
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market
Share by Type
74.0%
26.0%
72.2%
27.8%
Regular Diet
2016 2021P
% CHANGE
YEAR REGULAR DIET
2016/17 -0.8% -2.8%
2017/18 -0.9% 0.9%
2018/19 -1.6% 0.6%
2019/20 -4.8% -0.4%
2020/21P 2.0% 4.9%
16/21P
CAGR
-1.2% 0.6%
Category Updates
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CSDs have long been positioned as fun refreshment but this is changing as some newer brands tout
their functional benefits
Functional CSD Emerging Brands
OLIPOP
• Olipop is a prebiotic soda that promotes digestive health
• Each serving contains 32% of daily recommended fiber
• The CSD line is low in sugar and calories
Koios
poppi
• Nootropic carbonated beverage enhanced with MCT oil, Lion's mane
mushroom, electrolytes, Alpha GPC, caffeine & L-theanine, among others.
• Koios was launched several years ago by Koios Beverage Corporation,
based in Vancouver, which also introduced the Fit Soda brand in 2019
• Poppi is a prebiotic soda that promotes gut health
• Formulated with apple cider vinegar that helps aid digestion, the
company claims
• Sweetened with stevia, cane sugar and juice, each can contains 20 or
fewer calories
REBBL POP
• Just launched: Rebbl Pop is a functional soda formulated with vitamin C
and prebiotics
• It contains 50 calories and 5 grams of sugar per serving
Category Updates
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Steady pricing increases in carbonated soft drinks coupled with historical pricing declines in bottled
water have contributed to respective category performances
Wholesaler Dollars Per Gallon Indexed to 2000
2021P
Absolute Price
$4.80
$1.32
100 98
92
87 83 80 79
76 74 71 70 70 69 67 67 66 66 65 66 65
68
100
101 102 103 105 109 111
117 122 126 128 131 135 137 139
143 145 148 153
158 154 165
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021P
PET Single-Serve Bottled Water CSD
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Category Updates
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Bottled water has experienced healthy growth each year since the recession
• The category is aided by its positioning as the ultimate health beverage
• The category now is now the largest beverage category in the U.S.
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
U.S. Bottled Water Market
Billions of Gallons and Change
2016 – 2021P
12.4 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.7
7.9%
6.1%
4.9%
3.7%
4.1%
4.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
+4.7%
Category Updates
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P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
The PET single-serve segment accounts for more than 70% of category volume
• Imports and domestic sparkling were fastest growing segments in 2021 from relatively small bases
• In the last five years, all category segments experienced increased volume
U.S. Bottled Water Market
Volume Share and Change by Segment
2016 – 2021P
69.2%
8.9% 11.1%
7.4%
1.6% 1.8%
71.3%
7.9% 9.2% 6.3% 3.5% 2.0%
PET Single Serve 1-2.5 Gallon HOD Self-Service
Refill
Domestic
Sparkling
Imports
2016 2021
CAGR
SEGMENT 2016/2021P
PET Single
Serve
5.3%
1-2.5 Gallon 2.1%
HOD 0.8%
Self-Service
Refill
1.3%
Domestic
Sparkling
22.3%
Imports 6.7%
TOTAL 4.7%
Category Updates
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Despite slower growth in 2021, sparkling water has been a star segment in the category
Category Updates
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P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Value-added waters account for just 7% of single-serve water beverage volume, but hold a larger
share of revenues due to higher pricing
U.S. Single-Serve Bottled Water Market
Share by Volume and Revenues
2021P
92.5%
4.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8%
76.7%
15.1%
4.2% 1.9% 1.9%
Regular PET Enhanced Alkaline Flavored Essence
Volume Share Dollar Share
% CHANGE
YEAR VOLUME DOLLAR
Regular
PET
5.9% 11.1%
Enhanced 5.8% 7.2%
Alkaline 39.3% 39.4%
Flavored 4.5% 1.1%
Essence 48.2% 44.2%
TOTAL 5.7% 7.1%
Category Updates
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Enhanced waters of all types are proliferating and gaining traction in all parts of the country
• These premium value, craft type waters are adding additional benefits to consumers’ water experience beyond
vitamins and minerals
Enhanced Waters
Alkaline Water Essence Water Protein Water Plant Water Floral Water Hydrogen Water
Category Updates
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Bottled water became the leading beverage category in the U.S. on a volume basis in 2016,
surpassing CSDs, and continues to widen its gap
• As bottled water continues to outperform CSDs, the gap between the two categories is projected to widen
even more
• On a dollar basis, CSDs continue to be larger than bottled water
P: Projected
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Projected Water & CSD Market
Millions of Gallons
2016 – 2026P
CSD
10-Yr CAGR:
-0.9%
Bulk, HOD, Vended,
Sparkling and Imports
Single Serve (PET) Water
Enhanced Water
Flavored Water
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P
Category Updates
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U.S. Fruit Beverage Market
Billions of Gallons
2016 – 2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Fruit beverage performance has lagged most refreshment beverage categories in recent years
• Category performance has been negatively impacted by high relative prices, high caloric and sugar content,
and limited innovation
3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
0.4%
-3.9%
-3.0%
-1.7%
-3.0%
0.7%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
-0.5%
Category Updates
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U.S. Sports Drink Market
Billions of Gallons
2016 – 2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Sports drinks, which provide hydration, electrolytes and energy, are experiencing growth in the
low-single digits and have benefitted from heightened category competition
• Category volume in 2020 reached 1.7 billion gallons
1.6 1.5 1.6
1.6
1.7 1.7
3.9%
-2.1%
2.8%
2.0%
5.5%
3.8%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
2.4%
Category Updates
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U.S. Energy Drink Market
Millions of Gallons
2016 – 2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Energy drink performance rebounded in 2021 after soft sales in 2020, impacted by the pandemic
• The category’s high profitability makes it popular with brand owners, distributors and retailers
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8 0.8
0.9
4.8%
3.7%
8.6% 8.7%
2.5%
14.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
7.4%
Category Updates
-38- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Innovation has accelerated in both energy and sports drink categories
• In sports drinks, the well-funded BodyArmor became the first viable “third brand” in the category in a couple
of decades and then was acquired by Coca-Cola Company. Smaller brands are emerging in its wake. PepsiCo,
meanwhile, continues to innovate to maintain its category dominance.
• In energy drinks, “performance energy” drinks such as Bang and Reign (Monster) have emerged in the past
several years, often with extra caffeine and other ingredients to the usual energy drink formula such as
branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs). Other functions such as cognitive and weight loss are also being
explored.
Category Updates
-39- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
U.S. RTD Tea Market
Millions of Gallons
2016 – 2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
The RTD tea category has experienced sluggish performance in recent years but had a modest
rebound in 2021 and remains well-positioned from a health and wellness perspective
• Category volume topped 1.7 billion gallons in 2021
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
1.6 1.7
3.4%
1.1%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-3.3%
3.1%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Billions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
-0.3%
Category Updates
-40- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
U.S. RTD Coffee Market
Millions of Gallons
2016 – 2021P
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
RTD coffee has experienced accelerated growth for two consecutive years
• After years as a single-serve dominated category, multi-serve packaging is experiencing a surge of growth
through channels like supermarkets
157.1 177.2 192.8
205.6 232.3
277.1
12.7% 12.8%
8.8%
6.6%
13.0%
19.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P
Millions of Gallons Change
5-Yr CAGR
12.0%
Category Updates
-41- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Roast/
Ground
73.2%
Whole
Bean
4.4%
Coffee Pods
18.7% Instant 2.3%
Mixes 1.1% RTD
Coffee
4.0%
U.S. Coffee vs. Tea Market
Share by Segment
RTD vs. All Others
2021P
Coffee Tea
RTD Tea
48.8% Tea Bags
40.6%
Loose Tea
0.6%
Tea Pods
0.8%
Iced Tea
Mix
9.2%
The coffee category is dominated by roast/ground format while the tea category is led by tea bags
and the RTD format
• Coffee pods have gained significant share while a significant market for tea pods has yet to develop
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Category Updates
-42- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Beyond mainstay refreshment beverage categories, a host of emerging categories have entered the
market and most boast health and wellness attributes and/or promise functional benefits
Select Offerings and Categories of Today’s Emerging Beverages
CBD Beverages
Probiotic
Performance Energy
Protein/Sustenance
Plant-based Water
Category Updates
-43- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Niche Categories vs. Traditional LRB Categories
Wholesale Dollars* and Share of Wholesale Dollars
2020 – 2021P
Products in emerging categories, whose combined revenue is over 4% of the total refreshment
beverage universe today, may become the successful brands of the future
* Millions of dollars
P: Preliminary
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Niche
4.2%
Traditional
LRB
95.8%
Category Updates
NICHE CATEGORY 2020 2021P 20/21P
Protein Drinks $917.8 $1,059.0 15.4%
Kombucha Tea 990.7 998.9 0.8%
Energy Shots 557.0 521.4 -6.4%
Cold Brew Coffee 549.8 642.8 16.9%
HPP/Cleanses 503.5 530.0 5.3%
Probiotics 367.9 382.2 3.9%
Liquid Water Enhancer 385.8 436.3 13.1%
Essence Water 267.2 363.2 35.9%
Premium Kids’ Bevs 156.1 163.5 4.7%
Plant Water 126.0 134.0 6.4%
Functional Beverages 101.9 110.0 7.9%
Premium Mixers 81.6 85.0 4.2%
Healthy Energy Drinks 51.3 68.0 32.7%
Protein Waters 36.9 43.7 18.4%
TOTAL $5,093.5 $5,537.9 8.7%
-44- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Agenda
Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic
Market Overview
Key Trends
Category Updates
Projections
-45- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp.
Among refreshment beverages, the strongest growth is projected for RTD coffee, value-added
water and energy drinks with bottled water having the largest net volume gain from a large base
• Keep in mind: dollars will outperform volume in 2022 due primarily to the impact of inflation
P: Projected
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
2022 Liquid Refreshment Beverage Projections
Volume Growth
Projections
LRB CATEGORY 2022(P)
RTD Coffee 12.0% - 13.0%
Value-Added Water 10.0% - 11.0%
Energy Drinks 8.0% - 9.0%
Sports Drinks 4.0% - 5.0%
Bottled Water 3.5% - 4.5%
RTD Tea 2.0% - 3.0%
Fruit Beverages 0.0% - -1.0%
Carbonated Soft Drinks -1.0% - -2.0%
TOTAL 1.5% - 2.5%
Thank You
• Strategic Associates
• Research
• Advisors
ghemphill@beveragemarketing.com
Beverage Marketing Corporation

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2022 Beverage Forum Non-Alcoholic Workshop[87].pdf

  • 1. April 29, 2022 Market Trends Workshop Non-Alcoholic Beverages
  • 2. -2- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Unique Beverage Industry Expertise for Providing “Added-Value” to Selected Clients Beverage Marketing Capabilities Cutting Edge Insights: New Age Emergence, Multiple Beverage Competition, Specialty Beer Opportunity, Bottled Water Dominance, Hyper-Category Competition, Micro-Marketing Age Beverage Marketing Corporation utilizes an integrated model for providing information, analysis and advice to beverage industry clients
  • 3. -3- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Beverage Marketing Capabilities All data in this presentation is supplied by: And introducing The Beverage Strategist, BMC’s bi-weekly newsletter
  • 4. -4- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Agenda Market Overview Key Trends Category Updates Projections Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic
  • 5. -5- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. State of the Industry – The Good and the Bad Beverage Headlines 5 4 3 2 1 The total U.S. beverage market rebounded in 2021 after relatively soft performance in 2020 due to the pandemic Carbonated soft drink (CSD) volume returned to growth in 2021 after many years of declines Bottled water became the largest U.S. beverage category ever in 2021, surpassing CSDs’ 2004 high point of 15.3 billion gallons Niche categories continued to outperform most traditional mass-market categories with new segments still emerging Unprecedented input cost increases may put a damper on beverage volume growth in 2022 Market Overview
  • 6. -6- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Implication Health & Wellness Growth across categories is attributed to products/sub-segments that provide consumers perceived/actual functional health benefits or health improvements over existing products More better-for-you beverage innovation e.g. hemp-infused beverages Premiumization Beverage categories are seeing increasing numbers of premium offerings, both in terms of price point and brand marketing Niche categories e.g. kombucha, coconut water etc. Consumer Convenience Consumers want beverages that are easy to carry The convenience of e-commerce will drive innovation to overcome the barriers that it faces with CPG E-commerce logistics capabilities e.g. Copper Peak Logistics Increasing Beverage Variety Consumers are demanding an ever-widening variety of beverage options Sugar continues to be avoided and, in some areas, is being taxed (e.g. Chicago, Seattle) Wider array of functional and targeted brands Manufacturing flexibility e.g. short runs Environmental Concerns Environmentally-friendly packaging capability e.g. paper, rPET, etc. Concerns regarding single-use plastic impact continue to accelerate, but have not yet reached levels to enact sweeping changes These key trends are impacting consumer beverage choices today Major Consumer Trends Impacting the Greater Beverage Market Market Overview
  • 7. -7- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. COVID has impacted all aspects of the beverage business but especially how and when people buy their beverages Weakened On- Premise Strength Off- Premise A growing trend accelerates due to COVID, allowing consumers to limit trips to the store Weak on-premise sales especially in restaurants with improvement in 2021 E-commerce logistics capabilities e.g. Copper Peak Logistics Rise of E-Commerce Economic Turmoil GDP was soft in 2020 while unemployment skyrocketed; both have since improved Improved consumer spending power, especially for constrained consumers, anticipated Home-bound consumers increased off-premise purchases, while on-premise weakened due to COVID Off-premise remains strong, while on-premise recovery begins Big Brands Endure In times of uncertainty, big familiar brands remain Important to consumers With recovering economy, they will still benefit, but more brand experimentation likely in 2021 COVID has had a far-reaching impact on the beverage industry Impact of the Pandemic on the Greater Beverage Market Implication Market Overview
  • 8. -8- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Department of Labor After years of positive growth, the economy took a pandemic-driven dip in 2020 but both GDP and unemployment rate improved in 2021 Unemployment Rate 1933 – 2021 Quarterly GDP Change 1932 – 2021 2000 – 2019 2020 – 2021 1932 -12.9% 1946 -11.6% 2.3% 2.0% 2.9% 1.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% -5.0% -32.9% 33.4% 4.0% -3.5% 6.3% 6.5% 2.3% 6.9% 5.7% 1932 1946 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021 1933 24.9% 4.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 14.8% 13.3% 11.1% 10.2% 8.1% 6.3% 5.2% FY 21 3.9% Market Overview
  • 9. -9- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Consumer sentiment dipped sharply in 2020 after many years of improvement since the recession of 2008, and remained soft in 2021 Annual U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index 1995 – 2021 92 94 103 105 106 108 89 90 88 95 89 87 86 64 66 73 68 76 79 84 93 92 97 98 96 82 78 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Market Overview
  • 10. -10- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Agenda Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic Market Overview Key Trends Category Updates Projections
  • 11. -11- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. beverage market growth rebounded in 2021 after weakness in 2020 due to the pandemic • The market has now experienced several consecutive years of modest growth U.S. Total Beverage Market Volume Change 2016 – 2021P 2.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Key Trends
  • 12. -12- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Post-recession revenues have generally outpaced volume growth – a trend that accelerated in 2021 due mostly to inflation U.S. Total Beverage Market Change in Volume and Wholesale Dollars 2016 – 2021P 2.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% 2.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.8% 0.4% 7.6% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Volume Change Wholesale Dollar Change Key Trends
  • 13. -13- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation In recent years, refreshment beverages have generally outperformed the overall beverage market 4.2% 0.2% -3.1% -13.3% Refreshment Beverages Beverage Alcohol Traditional Beverages Tap Water U.S. Beverage Market Volume Change 2021P Bottled Water CSD Energy Drinks Fruit Bevs RTD Coffee RTD Tea Sports Drinks VA Water Beer Spirits Wine Hot Coffee Hot Tea Milk Key Trends
  • 14. -14- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Most large mass market refreshment beverage categories have struggled while niche categories have experienced growth • Bottled water is the primary exception of a mainstream category that has thrived P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market Volume Change 2021P 4.7% 2.8% 0.7% 3.8% 3.1% 14.0% 16.0% 19.3% 4.2% Bottled Water CSDs Fruit Bevs Sports Bevs RTD Tea Energy Drinks Value Added Waters RTD Coffee TOTAL LRB Largest Volume Smallest Volume Key Trends
  • 15. -15- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Traditional beverages generally have lagged in volume performance in recent years U.S. Traditional Beverage Market Volume Change 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation -6.6% -4.2% -1.2% -3.1% Tea Less RTD Milk Coffee Less RTD TOTAL TRADITIONAL Key Trends
  • 16. -16- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. One reflection of a healthy beverage industry is the decline of tap water, and tap water consumption has generally trended down in most years • In 2021, tap water declines resumed after a pandemic-driven uptick in 2020 P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Estimated Tap Water Volume Change 2021P -0.5% -6.6% -4.0% -5.3% -9.4% -11.5% -2.6% 23.5% 20.0% 1.3% 5.5% -2.7% 6.2% -1.5% -5.5% -8.5% -0.5% -3.7% -0.7% 2.1% -13.3% '00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06 '06/07 '07/08 '08/09 '09/10 '10/11 '11/12 '12/13 '13/14 '14/15 '15/16 '16/17 '17/18 '18/19 '19/20 '20/21P Key Trends
  • 17. -17- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Bottled water has been the biggest volume share gainer, while CSDs have been the largest share loser over the last five years. Niche categories have experienced some small share gains P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Beverage Market Volume Share by Category 2016 – 2021P Others 18.3% Others 18.6% Others 17.8% Fruit Bevs 5.0% Fruit Bevs 4.4% Fruit Bevs 4.4% Tea 6.0% Tea 5.6% Tea 5.4% Milk 9.1% Milk 8.4% Milk 8.0% Beer 10.5% Beer 10.1% Beer 10.1% Coffee 11.0% Coffee 10.9% Coffee 10.8% CSDs 20.0% CSDs 18.4% CSDs 18.8% Bottled Water 20.1% Bottled Water 23.6% Bottled Water 24.7% 2016 2020 2021P Key Trends
  • 18. -18- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Bottled water has gained the most volume over the last 10 years while CSDs have lost the most Decade Comparison 2011 – 2021P Which Categories Gained, Which Lost Volume? Category Millions of Gallons 2011/21P CAGR 5.7% 7.7% 2.7% 6.6% 1.5% 14.3% -2.1% -1.2% 1.9% 6,273 -1,553 -645 204 239 430 409 492 6,697 Total LRB CSD Fruit Beverages RTD Coffee RTD Tea Value-Added Water Sports Drinks Energy Drinks Bottled Water P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Key Trends
  • 19. -19- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Health and wellness is a key market driver. Beverage categories with health and wellness attributes are outperforming those without • Additionally, heightened concerns about health caused by the pandemic could accelerate this trend Health and Wellness RTD Categories in U.S. Beverage Market Volume Share 40.3% 59.7% 44.8% 55.2% Health & Wellness* All Other** 2016 2021P * Includes bottled water, milk, 100% juice, RTD tea, dairy alternatives, meal replacement drinks, value-added water, coconut water, kombucha, sports drinks, energy drinks and protein drinks ** Includes CSDs, coffee (including RTD), tea (excluding RTD), fruit drinks, beer, wine, spirits and tap water P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Key Trends 5-Yr CAGR 2.6% 5-Yr CAGR -1.1%
  • 20. -20- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Driven by the trend toward healthier refreshment, caloric intake from refreshment beverages has been steadily declining since 2000 • The slight increase in 2021 is the result of the pandemic and likely temporary P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market Calories Per Capita Per Day 1990 – 2021P 213 252 263 244 238 230 223 215 211 207 204 201 200 200 200 196 193 189 178 183 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Key Trends
  • 21. -21- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Sugar intake from refreshment beverages has also seen declines dating back to 2000 • As with calories, the sugar decline has occurred due to the growth of bottled water and increasing number of low-calorie options in the marketplace P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market Grams of Sugar Consumption Per Capita Per Day 2000 – 2021P 64 64 64 63 62 61 61 59 57 55 54 53 52 51 51 51 51 50 49 48 46 47 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Key Trends
  • 22. -22- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Refreshment Beverage Prices on the Rise Unit Pricing Growth By Beverage Segment in 2021 Accelerating Holding Decelerating Key Trends Beverages experienced unprecedented retail price increases in 2021 with some segments still seeing accelerations. Higher prices are likely to continue well into 2022 Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; IRI Multi-Outlet + Convenience Last 52 Weeks Ending 12/26/2021 Beverage Category Trending Last Quarter Last 52 Weeks Sports Beverages +14.3% +12.7% CSDs +13.2% +9.4% Sparkling/Seltzer Water +7.1% +6.1% Juice and Drinks +7.7% +5.7% Enhanced Water +5.7% +4.7% Bottled Water +6.3% +5.6% RTD Tea +6.0% +4.2% Energy Drinks +3.5% +2.3% RTD Coffee -0.2% -0.1% TOTAL LRB +9.5% +7.8%
  • 23. -23- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Agenda Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic Market Overview Key Trends Category Updates Projections
  • 24. -24- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Carbonated soft drink volume increased in 2021 after 16 consecutive years of volume declines • Today’s consumers are migrating to healthier options and want more variety P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market Billions of Gallons and Change 2016 – 2021P 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.9 -0.8% -1.3% -0.4% -1.1% -3.7% 2.8% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR -0.7% Category Updates
  • 25. -25- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Despite sluggish volume performance, CSD dollars have grown most years P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation 25 U. S. CSD Volume and Wholesale Revenue Billions of Gallons and Wholesale Dollars 2016 – 2021P 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.9 $52.3 $52.9 $54.2 $55.6 $52.1 $57.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Volume Revenue % CHANGE YEAR VOLUME DOLLAR 2016/17 -1.3% 1.2% 2017/18 -0.4% 2.4% 2018/19 -1.1% 2.5% 2019/20 -3.7% -6.3% 2020/21P 2.8% 10.1% 16/21P CAGR -0.7% 1.8% Category Updates
  • 26. -26- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. In recent years, diet CSDs have been outperforming regular • Improvements in diet sweeteners have helped to bolster the category P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market Share by Type 74.0% 26.0% 72.2% 27.8% Regular Diet 2016 2021P % CHANGE YEAR REGULAR DIET 2016/17 -0.8% -2.8% 2017/18 -0.9% 0.9% 2018/19 -1.6% 0.6% 2019/20 -4.8% -0.4% 2020/21P 2.0% 4.9% 16/21P CAGR -1.2% 0.6% Category Updates
  • 27. -27- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. CSDs have long been positioned as fun refreshment but this is changing as some newer brands tout their functional benefits Functional CSD Emerging Brands OLIPOP • Olipop is a prebiotic soda that promotes digestive health • Each serving contains 32% of daily recommended fiber • The CSD line is low in sugar and calories Koios poppi • Nootropic carbonated beverage enhanced with MCT oil, Lion's mane mushroom, electrolytes, Alpha GPC, caffeine & L-theanine, among others. • Koios was launched several years ago by Koios Beverage Corporation, based in Vancouver, which also introduced the Fit Soda brand in 2019 • Poppi is a prebiotic soda that promotes gut health • Formulated with apple cider vinegar that helps aid digestion, the company claims • Sweetened with stevia, cane sugar and juice, each can contains 20 or fewer calories REBBL POP • Just launched: Rebbl Pop is a functional soda formulated with vitamin C and prebiotics • It contains 50 calories and 5 grams of sugar per serving Category Updates
  • 28. -28- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Steady pricing increases in carbonated soft drinks coupled with historical pricing declines in bottled water have contributed to respective category performances Wholesaler Dollars Per Gallon Indexed to 2000 2021P Absolute Price $4.80 $1.32 100 98 92 87 83 80 79 76 74 71 70 70 69 67 67 66 66 65 66 65 68 100 101 102 103 105 109 111 117 122 126 128 131 135 137 139 143 145 148 153 158 154 165 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021P PET Single-Serve Bottled Water CSD P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Category Updates
  • 29. -29- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Bottled water has experienced healthy growth each year since the recession • The category is aided by its positioning as the ultimate health beverage • The category now is now the largest beverage category in the U.S. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation U.S. Bottled Water Market Billions of Gallons and Change 2016 – 2021P 12.4 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.7 7.9% 6.1% 4.9% 3.7% 4.1% 4.7% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR +4.7% Category Updates
  • 30. -30- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation The PET single-serve segment accounts for more than 70% of category volume • Imports and domestic sparkling were fastest growing segments in 2021 from relatively small bases • In the last five years, all category segments experienced increased volume U.S. Bottled Water Market Volume Share and Change by Segment 2016 – 2021P 69.2% 8.9% 11.1% 7.4% 1.6% 1.8% 71.3% 7.9% 9.2% 6.3% 3.5% 2.0% PET Single Serve 1-2.5 Gallon HOD Self-Service Refill Domestic Sparkling Imports 2016 2021 CAGR SEGMENT 2016/2021P PET Single Serve 5.3% 1-2.5 Gallon 2.1% HOD 0.8% Self-Service Refill 1.3% Domestic Sparkling 22.3% Imports 6.7% TOTAL 4.7% Category Updates
  • 31. -31- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Despite slower growth in 2021, sparkling water has been a star segment in the category Category Updates
  • 32. -32- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Value-added waters account for just 7% of single-serve water beverage volume, but hold a larger share of revenues due to higher pricing U.S. Single-Serve Bottled Water Market Share by Volume and Revenues 2021P 92.5% 4.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 76.7% 15.1% 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% Regular PET Enhanced Alkaline Flavored Essence Volume Share Dollar Share % CHANGE YEAR VOLUME DOLLAR Regular PET 5.9% 11.1% Enhanced 5.8% 7.2% Alkaline 39.3% 39.4% Flavored 4.5% 1.1% Essence 48.2% 44.2% TOTAL 5.7% 7.1% Category Updates
  • 33. -33- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Enhanced waters of all types are proliferating and gaining traction in all parts of the country • These premium value, craft type waters are adding additional benefits to consumers’ water experience beyond vitamins and minerals Enhanced Waters Alkaline Water Essence Water Protein Water Plant Water Floral Water Hydrogen Water Category Updates
  • 34. -34- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Bottled water became the leading beverage category in the U.S. on a volume basis in 2016, surpassing CSDs, and continues to widen its gap • As bottled water continues to outperform CSDs, the gap between the two categories is projected to widen even more • On a dollar basis, CSDs continue to be larger than bottled water P: Projected Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Projected Water & CSD Market Millions of Gallons 2016 – 2026P CSD 10-Yr CAGR: -0.9% Bulk, HOD, Vended, Sparkling and Imports Single Serve (PET) Water Enhanced Water Flavored Water 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P Category Updates
  • 35. -35- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. U.S. Fruit Beverage Market Billions of Gallons 2016 – 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Fruit beverage performance has lagged most refreshment beverage categories in recent years • Category performance has been negatively impacted by high relative prices, high caloric and sugar content, and limited innovation 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 0.4% -3.9% -3.0% -1.7% -3.0% 0.7% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR -0.5% Category Updates
  • 36. -36- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. U.S. Sports Drink Market Billions of Gallons 2016 – 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Sports drinks, which provide hydration, electrolytes and energy, are experiencing growth in the low-single digits and have benefitted from heightened category competition • Category volume in 2020 reached 1.7 billion gallons 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 3.9% -2.1% 2.8% 2.0% 5.5% 3.8% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0 1.0 2.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR 2.4% Category Updates
  • 37. -37- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. U.S. Energy Drink Market Millions of Gallons 2016 – 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Energy drink performance rebounded in 2021 after soft sales in 2020, impacted by the pandemic • The category’s high profitability makes it popular with brand owners, distributors and retailers 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 4.8% 3.7% 8.6% 8.7% 2.5% 14.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0% 0.0 0.5 1.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR 7.4% Category Updates
  • 38. -38- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Innovation has accelerated in both energy and sports drink categories • In sports drinks, the well-funded BodyArmor became the first viable “third brand” in the category in a couple of decades and then was acquired by Coca-Cola Company. Smaller brands are emerging in its wake. PepsiCo, meanwhile, continues to innovate to maintain its category dominance. • In energy drinks, “performance energy” drinks such as Bang and Reign (Monster) have emerged in the past several years, often with extra caffeine and other ingredients to the usual energy drink formula such as branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs). Other functions such as cognitive and weight loss are also being explored. Category Updates
  • 39. -39- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. U.S. RTD Tea Market Millions of Gallons 2016 – 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation The RTD tea category has experienced sluggish performance in recent years but had a modest rebound in 2021 and remains well-positioned from a health and wellness perspective • Category volume topped 1.7 billion gallons in 2021 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 3.4% 1.1% -0.3% -1.8% -3.3% 3.1% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Billions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR -0.3% Category Updates
  • 40. -40- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. U.S. RTD Coffee Market Millions of Gallons 2016 – 2021P P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation RTD coffee has experienced accelerated growth for two consecutive years • After years as a single-serve dominated category, multi-serve packaging is experiencing a surge of growth through channels like supermarkets 157.1 177.2 192.8 205.6 232.3 277.1 12.7% 12.8% 8.8% 6.6% 13.0% 19.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P Millions of Gallons Change 5-Yr CAGR 12.0% Category Updates
  • 41. -41- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Roast/ Ground 73.2% Whole Bean 4.4% Coffee Pods 18.7% Instant 2.3% Mixes 1.1% RTD Coffee 4.0% U.S. Coffee vs. Tea Market Share by Segment RTD vs. All Others 2021P Coffee Tea RTD Tea 48.8% Tea Bags 40.6% Loose Tea 0.6% Tea Pods 0.8% Iced Tea Mix 9.2% The coffee category is dominated by roast/ground format while the tea category is led by tea bags and the RTD format • Coffee pods have gained significant share while a significant market for tea pods has yet to develop P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Category Updates
  • 42. -42- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Beyond mainstay refreshment beverage categories, a host of emerging categories have entered the market and most boast health and wellness attributes and/or promise functional benefits Select Offerings and Categories of Today’s Emerging Beverages CBD Beverages Probiotic Performance Energy Protein/Sustenance Plant-based Water Category Updates
  • 43. -43- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Niche Categories vs. Traditional LRB Categories Wholesale Dollars* and Share of Wholesale Dollars 2020 – 2021P Products in emerging categories, whose combined revenue is over 4% of the total refreshment beverage universe today, may become the successful brands of the future * Millions of dollars P: Preliminary Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation Niche 4.2% Traditional LRB 95.8% Category Updates NICHE CATEGORY 2020 2021P 20/21P Protein Drinks $917.8 $1,059.0 15.4% Kombucha Tea 990.7 998.9 0.8% Energy Shots 557.0 521.4 -6.4% Cold Brew Coffee 549.8 642.8 16.9% HPP/Cleanses 503.5 530.0 5.3% Probiotics 367.9 382.2 3.9% Liquid Water Enhancer 385.8 436.3 13.1% Essence Water 267.2 363.2 35.9% Premium Kids’ Bevs 156.1 163.5 4.7% Plant Water 126.0 134.0 6.4% Functional Beverages 101.9 110.0 7.9% Premium Mixers 81.6 85.0 4.2% Healthy Energy Drinks 51.3 68.0 32.7% Protein Waters 36.9 43.7 18.4% TOTAL $5,093.5 $5,537.9 8.7%
  • 44. -44- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Agenda Market Trends Workshop – Non-Alcoholic Market Overview Key Trends Category Updates Projections
  • 45. -45- Copyright © 2022 Beverage Marketing Corp. Among refreshment beverages, the strongest growth is projected for RTD coffee, value-added water and energy drinks with bottled water having the largest net volume gain from a large base • Keep in mind: dollars will outperform volume in 2022 due primarily to the impact of inflation P: Projected Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation 2022 Liquid Refreshment Beverage Projections Volume Growth Projections LRB CATEGORY 2022(P) RTD Coffee 12.0% - 13.0% Value-Added Water 10.0% - 11.0% Energy Drinks 8.0% - 9.0% Sports Drinks 4.0% - 5.0% Bottled Water 3.5% - 4.5% RTD Tea 2.0% - 3.0% Fruit Beverages 0.0% - -1.0% Carbonated Soft Drinks -1.0% - -2.0% TOTAL 1.5% - 2.5%
  • 46. Thank You • Strategic Associates • Research • Advisors ghemphill@beveragemarketing.com Beverage Marketing Corporation