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An integrated
update of Vietnam
FMCG market
M
Full year 2021
Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam
By Worldpanel Division
1
Executive summary
Macro economy
FMCG overview
Hot category
Retail landscape
Spotlight
2021’s Vietnam
economy sustains a
positive performance,
thanks to the fast
economic recovery in
Q4 coupled with the
low CPI.
FMCG growth slows
down compared to
last year’s peak as
not much change in
volume consumption.
Sugar achieves a
robust growth,
mainly driven by the
increase of paid
price which also
happens in many
FMCG categories.
Convenient retail
formats such as Online
and Minimarket keep
winning consumers'
choice amid the social
distancing periods.
Watch out the key
trends in consumer
shopping behaviors
in 2022
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
COVID-19 situation
updates
Cumulative Confirmed COVID 19 Cases in Vietnam (000 cases)
Thanks to the
government effort
since the second half of
2021, about 80% of
Vietnam population is
now fully vaccinated.
However, COVID-19
infected cases in
Vietnam continues
rising after lockdown,
posing considerable
challenges for
economic growth,
business operations
and consumer lives in
the first half of 2022.
Wave 4 of COVID-19: 27 Apr to now
Daily COVID-19 Infected Cases in Vietnam (000 cases)
Vaccination situation in Vietnam
82% 79%
38%
Vaccinated
rate
(1st dose)
Fully
vaccinated
rate (2nd dose)
3rd dose
rate
3
Source: Wikipedia & VNExpress
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q4 2020
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Currently what do you consider to be the biggest concerns you and your
household is likely to face? (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities)
Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | Q4'21 | Field work from 27th December – 7th January
Consumers’ top
concerns
Given the uncertain
COVID-19 situation in
Vietnam, health and
safety remain the
biggest concerns among
Vietnamese households
in Urban 4 key cities
while fewer people worry
about income and job
security as society
reopens.
4
Source: GSO
Despite the strong hit of COVID-19’s Delta variant, 2021’s Vietnam economy sustains a positive performance, thanks to the fast
economic recovery in Q4 coupled with the low CPI. Yet, 2022 might be still challenging as inflation is more likely to come back due to
the rising oil prices and the number of unemployed people and suspended operations remains high.
Vietnam’s macro economy
GDP CPI
3.2
1.4
0.3
2.7 2.5
1.9
1.9
7.0
2.9
2.6
2019 2020
2.8
3.2
1.8
2019 2020
2021
2.6
4.5 4.5
6.6
-6.2
5.2
% Change vs the same period last year Other key economic indicators (2021 vs 2020)
FDI
Suspended
operations
Export turnover
of goods
-1.2%
+18%
3.2%
+19%
2021
+27%
Import turnover
of goods
Unemployment
rate (2.5% in
2020)
5
84
42
80
62
74
81
60
65
76
Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q4'21 | Field work from 27th December – 7th January
The economic situation will be better or the same as today
in the next 12 months (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities)
Consumer confidence on both economic outlook and purchasing power sees an improvement in Q4 2021, thanks to
the high vaccination rate and the lifting of social distancing measures, but not yet return to the pre-pandemic level.
Consumer perspective
In the upcoming 12 months, do you think that the financial
situation in your house… (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities)
9 7 7 7 7 9 7 9 7
44
33
41 40 42 45
38 39 39
43
44
45 43 43
43
41 31
46
4
16
7 9 8 3
13
18
8 Will get much
worse
Will get worse
Will remain the
same
Will slightly
improve
Will strongly
improve
1st COVID
impact
Wave 4 of
COVID
1st COVID
impact
Wave 4 of
COVID
6
5.8
13.7
15.6
8.2
2.5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
FMCG growth slows
down compared to
last year’s peak as
not much change in
volume consumption.
In the short term,
consumer spend on
FMCG continuously
posts a high growth in
Q4 compared to the
same period last year,
mainly driven by the
increase of average
paid price – the
highest rate over the
past 4 years.
FMCG
overview
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Urban 4 key cities Rural
Value
Volume
% Change vs YA
Quarterly
trends
Avg. price paid*
Value Volume**
7.5
10.7
15.0
8.7
1.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
COVID-19’s
1st wave
COVID-19’s
4th wave
COVID-19’s
1st wave
COVID-19’s
4th wave
7%
10%
4%
Category 1
4%
7%
0%
Category 1
Full year 2020
Full year 2021
Full year 2019
9% 10%
5%
Category 1
6%
7%
1%
Category 1
7
In the second year of
the pandemic,
Packaged Foods and
Dairy continue driving
the market growth in
both Urban 4 key cities
and Rural areas.
Meanwhile, Beverages
suffer a negative
impact in the wave 4 of
pandemic, especially in
Rural.
Sector
performance
Urban 4 key cities Rural
% Value change vs YA
FMCG
Dairy
Beverages
Packaged
Foods
Personal
Care
Home
Care
10
9
3
22
12
5
4
5
-2
14
-2
-2
10
13
1
14
17
11
5
11
-8
12
7
2
Full year 2020
Full year 2021
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022 8
The increase of average
paid price is witnessed in
many FMCG products and
Sugar in particular.
In 2021, Sugar achieves a
robust growth which is
mainly driven by the
double-digit increase of
average paid price.
Hot
category
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2021
Sugar performance in 2021 vs YA – Urban 4 key cities
Value growth
+30%
Volume growth
+5%
Price per volume
+24%
% Buyers
94%
Trips/ year
11
Volume per buyer
18(kg/year)
1) What are the reasons behind?
2) How about your categories?
9
• Consumers buy more higher price-tier and branded products?
• Manufacturer/ retailer increase the unit price due to the increasing costs and
supply shortages?
Convenient retail
formats such as
Online and
Minimarket keep
winning consumers'
choice amid the social
distancing periods.
Together with an
impressive growth,
these channels are
gaining in importance
in today’s retail
landscape in Urban
areas.
Retail
landscape Urban 4 key cities
% Value change vs YA
10
60
30
6
-2
13 13
4
60
27
5
-6
-16
-24
All retailers Online Minimarkets Street Shops Specialty Stores Hyper & Super Wet Market
FY 2020 FY 2021
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Vietnam Urban 4 Key Cities | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022
% Value share
in 2021
Increase vs YA
6% 8% 53% 6% 12% 6%
10
The similar picture
is also observed in
Rural areas with
the expansion of
emerging channels
like online and
minimarkets.
Retail
landscape Rural
% Value change vs YA
10
122
169
9
42
6
-8
5
40
31
9
18
-9
-28
All retailers Online Minimarkets Street Shops Specialty Stores Wet Market Hyper & Super
FY 2020 FY 2021
Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022
% Value share
in 2021
Increase vs YA
2% 1% 77% 3% 12% 2%
11
Spotlight:
Key Trends in Consumer Shopping Behaviors in 2022
Consumers will
continue to rationalize
their spend
Home life remains
important
Toward a more
digitalized life offering
new experience
Embrace the rising
of convenience-
driven retail
Rethink: Well-
being &
sustainable living
Understand the role of
categories and its ability to
command pricing.
More categories try to
communicate and
shift toward in-home
occasions.
New services, and new
ways to interact with
the brands.
Leverage growing channels:
minimarket, online and
delivery service not only in
big cities but also sub-
urban and rural areas.
Focus on both physical
and mental health &
doing good deeds
today.
Temporary On going
Source: Worldpanel Division 12
Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights and
consulting company. We understand more about how
people think, feel, shop, share, vote and view than
anyone else. Combining our expertise in human
understanding with advanced technologies, Kantar’s
30,000 people help the world’s leading organizations
succeed and grow.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com/vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc – Senior Marketing Manager
Worldpanel Division, Vietnam
ơ
M: +84 988 445 401
58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
E: NhuNgoc.NguyenThi@kantar.com
13

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Kantar_Worldpanel_Division_FMCG_Monitor_Full_Year_2021_EN.pdf

  • 1. An integrated update of Vietnam FMCG market M Full year 2021 Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam By Worldpanel Division 1
  • 2. Executive summary Macro economy FMCG overview Hot category Retail landscape Spotlight 2021’s Vietnam economy sustains a positive performance, thanks to the fast economic recovery in Q4 coupled with the low CPI. FMCG growth slows down compared to last year’s peak as not much change in volume consumption. Sugar achieves a robust growth, mainly driven by the increase of paid price which also happens in many FMCG categories. Convenient retail formats such as Online and Minimarket keep winning consumers' choice amid the social distancing periods. Watch out the key trends in consumer shopping behaviors in 2022 2
  • 3. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 COVID-19 situation updates Cumulative Confirmed COVID 19 Cases in Vietnam (000 cases) Thanks to the government effort since the second half of 2021, about 80% of Vietnam population is now fully vaccinated. However, COVID-19 infected cases in Vietnam continues rising after lockdown, posing considerable challenges for economic growth, business operations and consumer lives in the first half of 2022. Wave 4 of COVID-19: 27 Apr to now Daily COVID-19 Infected Cases in Vietnam (000 cases) Vaccination situation in Vietnam 82% 79% 38% Vaccinated rate (1st dose) Fully vaccinated rate (2nd dose) 3rd dose rate 3 Source: Wikipedia & VNExpress
  • 4. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q4 2020 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Currently what do you consider to be the biggest concerns you and your household is likely to face? (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities) Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | Q4'21 | Field work from 27th December – 7th January Consumers’ top concerns Given the uncertain COVID-19 situation in Vietnam, health and safety remain the biggest concerns among Vietnamese households in Urban 4 key cities while fewer people worry about income and job security as society reopens. 4
  • 5. Source: GSO Despite the strong hit of COVID-19’s Delta variant, 2021’s Vietnam economy sustains a positive performance, thanks to the fast economic recovery in Q4 coupled with the low CPI. Yet, 2022 might be still challenging as inflation is more likely to come back due to the rising oil prices and the number of unemployed people and suspended operations remains high. Vietnam’s macro economy GDP CPI 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.9 7.0 2.9 2.6 2019 2020 2.8 3.2 1.8 2019 2020 2021 2.6 4.5 4.5 6.6 -6.2 5.2 % Change vs the same period last year Other key economic indicators (2021 vs 2020) FDI Suspended operations Export turnover of goods -1.2% +18% 3.2% +19% 2021 +27% Import turnover of goods Unemployment rate (2.5% in 2020) 5
  • 6. 84 42 80 62 74 81 60 65 76 Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q4'21 | Field work from 27th December – 7th January The economic situation will be better or the same as today in the next 12 months (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities) Consumer confidence on both economic outlook and purchasing power sees an improvement in Q4 2021, thanks to the high vaccination rate and the lifting of social distancing measures, but not yet return to the pre-pandemic level. Consumer perspective In the upcoming 12 months, do you think that the financial situation in your house… (% households agree in Urban 4 key cities) 9 7 7 7 7 9 7 9 7 44 33 41 40 42 45 38 39 39 43 44 45 43 43 43 41 31 46 4 16 7 9 8 3 13 18 8 Will get much worse Will get worse Will remain the same Will slightly improve Will strongly improve 1st COVID impact Wave 4 of COVID 1st COVID impact Wave 4 of COVID 6
  • 7. 5.8 13.7 15.6 8.2 2.5 -5 0 5 10 15 20 FMCG growth slows down compared to last year’s peak as not much change in volume consumption. In the short term, consumer spend on FMCG continuously posts a high growth in Q4 compared to the same period last year, mainly driven by the increase of average paid price – the highest rate over the past 4 years. FMCG overview Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022 *: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA **: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Urban 4 key cities Rural Value Volume % Change vs YA Quarterly trends Avg. price paid* Value Volume** 7.5 10.7 15.0 8.7 1.2 -5 0 5 10 15 20 COVID-19’s 1st wave COVID-19’s 4th wave COVID-19’s 1st wave COVID-19’s 4th wave 7% 10% 4% Category 1 4% 7% 0% Category 1 Full year 2020 Full year 2021 Full year 2019 9% 10% 5% Category 1 6% 7% 1% Category 1 7
  • 8. In the second year of the pandemic, Packaged Foods and Dairy continue driving the market growth in both Urban 4 key cities and Rural areas. Meanwhile, Beverages suffer a negative impact in the wave 4 of pandemic, especially in Rural. Sector performance Urban 4 key cities Rural % Value change vs YA FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal Care Home Care 10 9 3 22 12 5 4 5 -2 14 -2 -2 10 13 1 14 17 11 5 11 -8 12 7 2 Full year 2020 Full year 2021 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022 8
  • 9. The increase of average paid price is witnessed in many FMCG products and Sugar in particular. In 2021, Sugar achieves a robust growth which is mainly driven by the double-digit increase of average paid price. Hot category Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2021 Sugar performance in 2021 vs YA – Urban 4 key cities Value growth +30% Volume growth +5% Price per volume +24% % Buyers 94% Trips/ year 11 Volume per buyer 18(kg/year) 1) What are the reasons behind? 2) How about your categories? 9 • Consumers buy more higher price-tier and branded products? • Manufacturer/ retailer increase the unit price due to the increasing costs and supply shortages?
  • 10. Convenient retail formats such as Online and Minimarket keep winning consumers' choice amid the social distancing periods. Together with an impressive growth, these channels are gaining in importance in today’s retail landscape in Urban areas. Retail landscape Urban 4 key cities % Value change vs YA 10 60 30 6 -2 13 13 4 60 27 5 -6 -16 -24 All retailers Online Minimarkets Street Shops Specialty Stores Hyper & Super Wet Market FY 2020 FY 2021 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Vietnam Urban 4 Key Cities | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022 % Value share in 2021 Increase vs YA 6% 8% 53% 6% 12% 6% 10
  • 11. The similar picture is also observed in Rural areas with the expansion of emerging channels like online and minimarkets. Retail landscape Rural % Value change vs YA 10 122 169 9 42 6 -8 5 40 31 9 18 -9 -28 All retailers Online Minimarkets Street Shops Specialty Stores Wet Market Hyper & Super FY 2020 FY 2021 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 52 weeks ending 02/01/2022 % Value share in 2021 Increase vs YA 2% 1% 77% 3% 12% 2% 11
  • 12. Spotlight: Key Trends in Consumer Shopping Behaviors in 2022 Consumers will continue to rationalize their spend Home life remains important Toward a more digitalized life offering new experience Embrace the rising of convenience- driven retail Rethink: Well- being & sustainable living Understand the role of categories and its ability to command pricing. More categories try to communicate and shift toward in-home occasions. New services, and new ways to interact with the brands. Leverage growing channels: minimarket, online and delivery service not only in big cities but also sub- urban and rural areas. Focus on both physical and mental health & doing good deeds today. Temporary On going Source: Worldpanel Division 12
  • 13. Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights and consulting company. We understand more about how people think, feel, shop, share, vote and view than anyone else. Combining our expertise in human understanding with advanced technologies, Kantar’s 30,000 people help the world’s leading organizations succeed and grow. For further information, please visit us at www.kantarworldpanel.com/vn Contact us Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc – Senior Marketing Manager Worldpanel Division, Vietnam ơ M: +84 988 445 401 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam E: NhuNgoc.NguyenThi@kantar.com 13