Ken Kurani, Researcher at UC Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies gave this presentation at Forth's webinar on February 11, 2020.

1. Growing Electric
Vehicle Markets?
Overview of Consumer
Consideration of EVs from
2014 to 2019
Ken Kurani
Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle
Research Center
Institute of Transportation Studies,
University of California, Davis
11 February 2019
Forth Webinar

2. Brief summary of consumer data sources
2014
• Three surveys
• (2) All car-owning households, CA: n ~ 1,700 ea.
• (1) New-car buyers, CA and twelve other states: CA n~1,700; total n ~5,500
2017
• Two surveys
• All car-owning households, California: n ~ 1,700 ea.
2019
• One Survey
• All car-owning households, California: n ~ 3,600 stratified by AQMDs and APCDs

3. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Jun-11 1-Jun-12 1-Jun-13 1-Jun-14 1-Jun-15 1-Jun-16 1-Jun-17 1-Jun-18 1-Jun-19
BEV PHEV
Cumulative Number PHEV and BEV models at the time of each
survey: Increasing numbers of PEV names that people might have
heard and be able to recall
https://insideevs.com/news/344007/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard-historical-charts/

4. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
June 2014 June 2017 Mar-19
Yes: Right (Other)
Yes: Right (Chevrolet Bolt)*
Yes: Right (Nissan Leaf)
Yes: Right (Tesla, any)
Yes: Maybe
Yes: Wrong
No
“Can you name a battery electric vehicle that is being sold in the US?”
Little change between 2014, 2017, and 2019

5. 1840
3967
5092
11730
1549
16704
2890
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
Aug.
2014
Stations
Aug.
2017
Stations
Aug.
2017
Chargers
May
2019
Stations
May
2019
Chargers
Chargers
Stations
Stations Level 2 DC Fast
Public PEV Charging Stations and Chargers, California
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze; last accessed 9 May 2019.

6. “There are enough places to charge battery electric vehicles”:
Average disagreement unchanged from 2014 to 2019
Scale: -3 = strongly disagree; 3 = strongly agree
• Percent who strongly disagreed nearly
doubled from 2014 to 2017
Probability
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Probability
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
June 2014, mean = -0.68
June 2017, mean = -0.61
March 2019, mean = -0.67
Probability
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

7. “There are enough places to charge battery electric vehicles”
CA by Air District, March 2019
• On average across air districts in CA, people disagree there are enough
places to charge battery EVs.
• Average disagreement is least in the San Francisco Bay Area AQMD,
highest in San Joaquin Valley APCD.
• There are ~25 to 30 times more charging locations in the Bay Area AQMD
than in the San Joaquin Valley APCD per sq. mile.

8. Center for Sustainable Energy (2020) California Air Resources Board Clean Vehicle Rebate Project, Rebate Statistics.
Data last updated February 3, 2020. Retrieved 6 February 2020 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistic
California Clean Vehicle Rebate spending to March 2019
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
2010
-2011
2011
-2012
2012
-2013
2013
-2014
2014
-2015
2015
-2016
2016
-2017
2017
-2018
2018
-2019
CumulativeTotal
YearlyTotal
March to February Yearly Total CVR Cumulative Total

9. “As far as you are aware, is [the federal government; California] offering
incentives to consumers to buy and drive vehicles powered by alternatives
to gasoline and diesel?”
Percent “yes”; New car buyers only.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
New car buyers, n = 1,670 New car buyers, n = 920 New car buyers, n = 1,834
14-Dec 17-Jun Mar-19
Federal Incentives California Incentives
CVR cumulative, July
2017 through March.
2019: $236 million
CVR cumulative, Jan.
2015 through June
2017: $251 million

10. Have car-owning households in California considered electric
vehicles?
“Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) run only on electricity; they plug-in to charge their batteries.
Have you considered buying a BEV for your household?
 I have not—and would not—consider buying a vehicle that runs on electricity
 I have not considered buying a vehicle that runs on electricity—but maybe some day will
 The idea has occurred, but no real steps have been taken to shop for one
 Started to gather some information, but haven’t really gotten serious yet
 Shopped for an electric vehicle, including a visit to at least one dealership to test drive
 I already have, or have had, a vehicle powered by electricity”
(Question asked about “electric vehicles” in 2014; worded distinctly and asked separately for
PHEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs in 2017 and 2019.)

11. Consumer Consideration, BEV or PHEV. California;
all car buying households; 2014, 2017, 2019; %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Haven't; won't consider Haven't; maybe someday Idea ocurred; no steps taken
Gathered info; not serious yet Actively shopped Have or have had a PEV

12. Consumer Consideration, BEV or PHEV. CA by Air
District, March 2019
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bay Area AQMD South Coast AQMD San Diego APCD Balance of State Sacramento
Metropolitan AQMD
San Joaquin Valley
APCD
Haven't; won't consider Haven't; maybe someday Idea occurred; no steps taken
Gathered info; not serious yet Actively shopped Have or have had

13. Conclusions
• Almost nothing changed from 2014 to 2019 regarding the lack of engagement with
PEVs among most (more than 90%) car-owning households in California
• Consideration of PHEVs and BEVs remains unchanged at low levels
• Ability to name PHEVs or BEVs did not increase or diversify with increasing makes
and models
• Ability to name a PHEV lags BEVs despite there being more PHEV models than BEV models
• Seeing EV charging did not increase: reminders they’re not enough?
• Awareness of incentives did not increase