This document provides an overview and analysis of trends in the Canadian economy in February 2015. It covers a wide range of topics including the automotive sector, international trade, manufacturing sales, housing starts, commodity prices, and policies at both the federal and provincial levels. Key economic indicators such as retail sales and employment are also discussed. The document aims to analyze monthly economic performance and identify important policies that influence business conditions across various industries in Canada.

1. Canada Economy Overview for
February 2015 – Trends and
Policies Analysis
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. Automotive Sector

3. Automotive Production

4. Canada Auto Sales

5. Scotia Bank

6. International Trade

7. Canada Exports and Imports

8. Trade by Sector for Canada

9. Trade by Sector for Canada

10. Trade by Sector for Canada

11. Comments Trade/January 2015

12. Comments Trade/January 2015

13. Comments Trade/January 2015

14. Chamber of Commerce

15. Economy / Comments by RBC

16. Trade

17. Trade

18. Canadian Manufacturing Sales

19. Canadian Manufacturing

20. Canada MFG Sales

21. Canadian Manufacturing Analysis

22. Canadian Manufacturing Analysis

23. Food Processor Canada

24. AG Sector - Canada

25. Green Technology/Canada

26. Water Treatment

27. Forestry

28. PMI Index

29. Canada Labor Productivity

30. Freight Index

31. Housing Starts

32. AG Equipment

33. Electricity Power

34. Metal Processing Center

35. Metal Processing Center

36. Industrial Valuations

37. Commodity Prices

38. Nickel

39. Zinc

40. Commodity Index

41. Oil Rig Count

42. Oil and Gas

43. Oil Refineries

44. Pipelines

45. Canada Oil

46. Machine Tool Orders

47. Class 8 Truck Sales

48. Truck Sales

49. Steel Analysis

50. Steel Analysis

51. Other Provinces

52. British Colombia
• http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=950619 (Green Technology)
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/maher-
terminals-expanding-its-b-c-port-terminal-by-60-146156/

53. Alberta
• http://www.auc.ab.ca/applications/decisions/Decisions/2015/3515-
D02-2015.pdf
• http://www.plant.ca/general/enmax-capital-power-open-alberta-
natural-gas-fuelled-power-plant-145052/
• http://www.imperialoil.ca/Canada-
English/about_media_releases_20150218.aspx

54. Saskatchewan
• http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Saskatchewan+sales+January/1
0897396/story.html
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/potash-giving-cash-
boost-to-tight-saskatchewan-budget-1.3000361
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/manufactur
ers-and-steel-producers-get-a-break-in-sask-budget-146379/
• http://www.plant.ca/general/cme-manufacturing-centre-opens-in-
saskatoon-145371/

55. Manitoba
• http://www.foodincanada.com/sustainability/investment-to-focus-
on-sustainable-beef-production-in-manitoba-130706/
• http://www.newflyer.com/index/news-app/story.187
• http://www.plant.ca/general/oic-awarded-5-million-to-develop-
advanced-manufacturing-hub-145180/

56. Ontario
• https://www.cn.ca/en/news/2015/03/pressrelease_20150317011634_2091
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/burlington-ont-
software-firm-nabs-800k-in-federal-funding-146397/
• http://www.canplastics.com/automotive/howa-canada-to-open-auto-parts-plant-
in-alliston-ont/1003434691/
• http://www.plant.ca/general/iion-gets-50k-investment-for-advanced-mfg-in-
northern-ont-144703/
• http://www.miningweekly.com/article/canadian-fed-and-ontario-govts-unveil-
supports-for-mining-industry-2015-03-02
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/guelph-cleantech-firm-
lands-3-7m-in-new-contracts-145963/
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/loblaws-to-spend-1-2b-
to-upgrade-100-stores-build-50-more-146065/

57. Ontario Life Sciences

58. Quebec
• http://www.on-sitemag.com/news/reseau-selection-investing-2b-to-
build-30-new-projects-in-
quebec/1003525748/?&er=3OZ2rEncH8OGOOEDgUU%2f2SQuguP9z
Qng9hJFoGu1CCk%3d
• https://angesquebec.com/en/angels-invest-695k-in-medfar-solutions-
cliniques/
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/new-malaysian-airline-flymojo-to-
buy-up-to-40-bombardier-cseries-jets-1.2998069

59. New Brunswick
• http://metronews.ca/news/canada/1317635/gallant-says-hell-
respect-forestry-contracts/
• http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/harper-government-
announces-new-investments-to-parks-canada-sites-across-new-
brunswick-296227111.html

60. Nova Scotia
• http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/11/nova-scotia-is-paying-
rbc-as-much-as-22-million-to-open-a-financial-services-centre-in-
halifax/

61. PEI
• http://www.dredgingtoday.com/2015/03/02/new-investments-in-pei-
fishing-harbors-dredging/

62. Newfoundland
• http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=938739
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/n-l-based-
sonar-developer-gets-nrc-irap-funding-146260/

63. Economic Trends for Canada

64. Retail Sales

65. Retail Sales Analysis

66. Retail sales by Province

67. Retail sales by Segment

68. Employment

69. Canadian Economy

70. Canadian dollar trend

71. Global Trends

72. Global Trends

73. Global Trends

74. Federal or Provincial Policies/Issues

75. Public Safety / Comments
• http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/5456696-anti-terrorism-
act-won-t-impact-klps-operations-police-chief/
• http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/expert-challenges-
government-claims-that-c-51-similar-to-allies-powers

76. Mining Regulations / Canada

77. Rail Standards
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lac-m%C3%A9gantic-lisa-raitt-announces-rail-safety-rules-based-on-crash-findings-1.2816680
• http://www.cpr.ca/en/safety/culture-of-safety
• http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Delivering%20Responsibility/Safety/leadership-in-safety-en.pdf
• http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/rail/2012/ss12.asp
• Globe and Mail, How about you read the regulations? https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/railsafety/railsafety-569.htm or the fact that some companies will push the limits:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lac-m%C3%A9gantic-lisa-raitt-announces-rail-safety-rules-based-on-crash-findings-1.2816680. It is sad that people blame Harper for
every bad thing that happens in Canada.
• I am not saying Harper is a saint, but the reality if companies cut corners then there is little things that can be done other than monitoring those companies more
closely as part of the government regulations! CN: http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Delivering%20Responsibility/Safety/leadership-in-safety-en.pdf or CP:
http://www.cpr.ca/en/safety/culture-of-safety http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/rail/2012/ss12.asp.
• It seems to me the amount of freight that is moved by rail and the number of accidents is very low and in some cases has decreased for the past 4 or five years!
http://www.railcan.ca/safety/safety.
• It seems to me that we are moving more goods including oil by rail. Where does the NDP stand on pipelines? Oops, they have said little on the east-west pipeline, right.
I have provided my links it is now on you to refute my information!! I bet you cannot as NDPers do not like facts! Ms. Ashton has already shown in her post that relates
to the fire she is not about facts, but emotion!
• Provincial Government failures
• It is sad how little people do research, right? http://cpeast.teamsterscanada.ca/2015/01/22/ontario-government-sues-cn-rail-millions-firefighting-costs/. The Provincial
made cuts to clearing brush from the tracks, right? http://www.timminstimes.com/2012/05/23/mcguinty-liberals-will-hurt-forest-fire-evacuation-plans-says-mnr-
union. It seems McGuinty and Wynne cuts have increase the risk of forest fires by rail!! How come nothing was said on these cuts?
• How about the rail volume: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-002-x/2015001/article/14132-eng.htm
• How about CN and CP spending: http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Investors/Presentations/CN-Investor-Presentation-2015-en.pdf or http://www.cpr.ca/en/investors-
site/Lists/FinancialReports/cp-aif-2014.pdf
•

78. Household Debt
Commentary – Household Debt
•
• 1. Mortgages - I thought we live in a world where market prices dictate what people pay for items, including houses. What is JT's solution?
Cap bids and asks or force banks to take harder looks at market values? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-
finance/mortgages/seven-ways-jim-flaherty-changed-the-canadian-mortgage-market/article17600143/
• 2. Student Debt - Is it Harpers fault that people go to school for degrees that provide no real future? Is it Harper's fault that provinces like
Ontario drove jobs from the private sector in areas like small to medium sized. Why are kids not going into areas that provide more career
options: http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6239-maybe-it-s-time-canada-expands-trades-training-for-youth.html ? Is JT going to write-
off student loans or offer more tax credit programs for students? A solution for debt is a job for a student, right?
http://www.esdc.gc.ca/en/reports/cslp_cesp/cslp_stats_2011.page
• 3. Credit Card - Is it Harper's fault that people to have to rely on credit when hydro bills and/or taxes at the provincial level have stretched
household budgets. http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/26/canadians-on-target-for-record-year-of-personal-debt-despite-better-
end-to-2013-transunion/
• 4. Income growth - Is it Harper's fault that provinces failed economic plans that included expanding public sector jobs was better than the
private sector? How about all those underfunded pensions at the provincial level.
http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/income_inequality.pdf . More taxes are not the answer unless it means taxing the
higher income brackets, right?
• Source:
• http://newsroom.bmo.com/press-releases/bmo-annual-debt-report-household-debt-up-6-per-ce-tsx-bmo-201408050960770001
• http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-modestly-overvalued-cmhc-
says/article21724011/

79. Debt and Deficits - Commentary
• There has been many comments on the federal government, especially debt and deficit. Mr. Harper took over as official government on February 5, 2006. The house was in a
minority parliament as Paul Martin just left office. The CPC first annual report was 2006-2007 -
http://www.parl.gc.ca/parlinfo/Compilations/FederalGovernment/PrimeMinisters/Gallery.aspx
• Harper started putting money back into social programs starting in 2007-2008 (link: http://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2008/afr2008_e.pdf) – see page 13
• USA economy growth rates on average are 2% as compare to 4% in the 1990s. http://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/.
LPC comments that Harper has been poor manager of the economy and yet nothing on USA Growth rates. USA still has not totally recover from housing bubble or stagnation with
the middle class: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102438557. USA is Trade has been rebounding, but the problem is the lack of capacity for exports in key provinces like Ontario and PQ:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gblec02a-eng.htm
• 2008-2009 there was world-wide global recession which forced Harper and his government to spend on a stimulus. Both the LPC and NDP claim the stimulus was not enough it
terms of helping the economy: http://www.thestar.com/business/2009/02/06/stimulus_not_enough_liberals.html. It is funny how Mr. Goodale recently made posts that CPC had
been poor on managing the finances, but says little on how LPC asked for more money
• Mr. Harper increases transfers to the provinces by 50% over the past 8+ years. The provinces have more money for education/healthcare than at any point of time in the past 20+
years. In the 1990s the LPC cut transfers to the provinces, but nothing is said, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-deficit or
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/provincial-transfers-and-program-spending. The opposition parties like the LPC or NDP are good at saying healthcare will see $36B less
in money, but say little how healthcare delivery by various provinces has gotten worst over the past 10+ years, why? The PBO report never look at delivery, but felt it is just a
funding issue: http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//most-efficient-health-care-2014-countries.
• Neither the LPC nor NDP discuss either the Build Canada or Gas Tax fund, why? Goodale did say the Build Canada fund is not working, but he never ever said that infrastructure
projects carry over to multiple years, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada. BTW: What party brought up CPPIB could be used to finance
infrastructure projects? http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/23/kelly-mcparland-justin-trudeaus-hidden-agenda/. Did the LPC not raid EI in the 1990s?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/martin-defends-employment-insurance-surplus-1.164131
• Mr. Harper continues to provide different programs that either existed under the LPC or were revamped under his watch. Mr. Goodale was quoted as saying his party introduced
SDTC, but never says how that program benefited green technology, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada or
http://www.hazmatmag.com/remediation/federal-budget-supports-environmental-technology-contaminated-site-cleanup/1000016105/. So, where does SDTC or Next
Generation Fuel Funds stand with either the NDP or LPC?
• LPC never talks about issues with provincial policies, why? The LPC is great saying it is all about money, but really they never once said how mining regulations or skills trades or
power rates or carbon taxes or other policies are impacting business investment, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/mpp-chan-says-exporting-
priority-ontario-liberals-142867/ or http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ontario-drives-manufacturers-away-with-overpriced-
electricity/article14854752/. It is never one policy that hurts business, so why is more not being said by the LPC? CPC have done great taxation, investment/trade/etc. or basically
federal policies! http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/press-releases/pages/canada-remains-most-competitive-business-tax-environment.aspx or
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015. The LPO has also said the AG sector is important, but yet their policies
have failed that sector: http://www.ofa.on.ca/media/news/connecting-with-cabinet-is-first-order-of-business

80. Economy / Comments• Manufacturing sales have done reasonably well in areas like Transportation or Forestry or Machinery or metal fabrications (see slide 11 -
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015)
• Oil is only roughly 8% of GDP. The issue with oil is that it can impact areas like royalties’ revenue or exports, but other sectors can pick up some of the slack:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150303/dq150303a-eng.htm?HPA.
• Housing Starts in USA are fueling growth in forestry - http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/business/T019-S000-kiplinger-s-economic-outlooks/.
• Consumer Spending in Canada has done reasonably well for the past few years due to tax cuts as well as strong economy:
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/news/2015/20150312-econ-fcst.html. Yet Mr. Goodale does not mention $11B that could be pumped into the economy via lower
gas prices, why
• Exports hit estimate $530B in 2014. Exports are still strong and continue to have success, especially in areas like Agriculture, machinery, aerospace, transportation,
forestry, etc. Oil will drive down exports, but other sectors will help offset those losses. Yet the LPC never discusses the exports of other products, why?
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-canada-exports.html or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HS87P-XD8EV-
H8PMB. BTW: Harper either kept programs like SDTC or created new programs to provide seed money to business, but nothing is said on the seed money, why?
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada
• Middle Class – Canada middle class has done well compare to its peers - http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/22/canada-leading-ranks-of-shrinking-middle-
class/ or even the Huffington Post (Liberal supporter) has shown Canada’s rank in 5th in the world compare to some of its peers -
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/05/05/canada-better-life-index_n_5269677.html. I can bet Denmark will be commented due to its social policies, but what is
not said is Denmark ranks 10 in taxes and/or has no oil/natural resources/etc.
• Goodale does not mention provincial governments as way to deflect all the blame at Harper. Yet it has been provincial policies in areas like carbon taxes, ORPP,
hydro rates, skills/trades/etc. that have done more damage to the economy.
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/11/25/ontario_needs_major_shift_to_get_economy_back_on_track.html. Ontario is used, but there are
issues with Quebec/Nova Scotia/NB/other provinces! The Liberal solutions is give more money to provinces and not push for fiscal management, why?
http://www.cambridgetimes.ca/news-story/5444799-moody-s-says-ontario-has-a-spending-problem/.
• Ontario bad polices - It is up the provinces to bring forward policies that support job creation: What government brought in the new mining regulations?
http://www.mining.com/junior-miners-entangled-in-new-ontario-mining-regulations-14400/ or
http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html . I could go into the ORPP as another bad tax:
http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on-small-business.html . The Conservative party was a great steward of the
economy! The conservatives also spent more government money % of spending on healthcare than the Liberal party have done under their term in office:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-government-spending . BTW: Canada's healthcare ranking was 4th in 2004 and now is 10th in one of the world-
wide ranking on healthcare. http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2014/jun/mirror-mirror . Yet healthcare has seen more money! It is
not about money, but about efficient and effective delivery of healthcare dollars!

81. Skill Trades

82. First Nations
• http://globalnews.ca/news/1862179/ottawa-advised-to-share-
resource-taxes-with-aboriginals/
• There needs to be transparency how money is spent by first nation:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/first-nation-funding