Our climate is changing. Now more than ever, we are beginning to see these dramatic effects across the globe, making it vitally important for our industry to consider its impact on our landscapes, marketplace, and wine growing over the next decade and beyond. Pulling from regions around the world already addressing these challenges, what can we learn and apply in Oregon to prepare ourselves? What steps could we be taking now and how do we plan both strategically and economically? What trends are we seeing in the market and how will a warming climate affect them? Topics of discussion will include potential solutions through varietal and site selection, grafting, adaptations in the cellar, and how informed choices can work advantageously in a maturing marketplace.

1. AHIVOY (Asociacion de la
Industria del Vino Y Oregon)
Sofia Torres McKay
CO-Proprietor Cramoisi Vineyard and AHIVOY Co-Founder

2. THE STORY INSIDE THE BOTTLE
I see a story of love, passion, dedication, hard work and respect

3. AHIVOY MISSION STATEMENT
• Formed with the purpose of creating opportunities and empowering Latino
Vineyard Stewards of the Willamette Valley to overcome socio-economic
challenges and strive toward realizing their ambitions through education.
• They are the foundation; they touch every single vine in our Valley (760+
vineyard in the Willamette Valley)

4. AHIVOY FOUNDERS AND BOARD MEMBERS
• YULIANA GUILLEN – PROPRIETOR GUILLEN FAMILY WINES
• SOFIA TORRES-MCKAY AND RYAN MCKAY – PROPRIETOR CRAMOISI VINEYARD
• MIGUEL LOPEZ – PROPRIETOR RED DIRT LABOR COMPANY
• JESSICA SANDROCK – FORMER DIRECTOR OF WINE STUDIES AND AGRICULTURAL
SCIENCES, CHEMEKETA
• RICH SCHMIDT – LINFIELD COLLEGE, DIRECTOR OREGON WINE HISTORY ARCHIVE
• KARLY TELL – IRVINE AND COMPANY
• DeANNA ORNELAS – WINDERLEA WINERY AMBASSADOR
• SAM PARRA – PROPRIETOR PARRA WINE Co.
• HEIDI MOORE – CONTRY FINANCIAL REPRESENTATIVE AND WINE CRUSH

5. AHIVOY GOALS:
Create a career path in the wine industry (inclusion)Create
Promote the English as a second languagePromote
Protect the Industry and create more opportunities - jobsProtect
Create a more diverse and inclusive community in the wine industryCreate
Attract more students to continue their education in the wine industry
and stay in the industryAttract
Collaborate with the community to promote education at all levelsCollaborate
Generations will stay in the wine industry, knowing that there is a
career pathGenerations
Having high skill Vineyard Steward will increase the quality grapes and
wineQuality
As we improve the life of our Vineyard Stewards, we will be improving
OUR WINE INDUSTRY COMMUNITY
Enrich our
community

6. AHIVOY
Wine industry professional program 2020
• In Partnership with Chemeketa we have:
• 12 Students (minimum)
• English Immersion training
• Include 2 terms 10 week each term
• Vineyard Management, Wine Making, Sales and
Marketing
• 20 Weeks total
• Offset the wages lost for the hours in class
• Student will contribute to their education $300 to
encourage their commitment (divided in the two
terms)

7. • FOLLOW US
• IG #ahivoyoregon
• FB AHIVOY
• Join us to our fundraising events
• Need (Wine donations, packages, hotels, tasting donations, financial donations)
• Email at ahivoyoregon@gmail.com or Sofia@cramoisivineyard.com
• Website available in March www.ahivoyoregon.org
• THE MORE FUNDS WE RAISE THE MORE VINEYARD STEWARDS CAN ENROLL IN THE PROGRAM
• REMEMBER THEY TOUCH EVERY SINGLE VINE IN OUR VALLEY, THEY DESERVE
THIS OPPORTUNITY.
HOW CAN YOU HELP?

8. THANKS TO ERATH FAMILY
FOUNDATION
“AHIVOY is a grassroots group dedicated to the advancement of our Hispanic
workforce that is so instrumental to the success of the Oregon Wine Industry; they
deserve our full support. –Dick Erath

9. • ERATH FAMILY FOUNDATION
• CHEMEKETA
• LINFIELD COLLEGE
• PURA VIDA
• WINERIES THAT HAVE DONATED WINE, PACKAGES, FINANCIAL
DONATIONS
• TOUR VINEYARD COMPANIES
• HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY
• KATHERINE COLE
• OWP
THANK YOU!

10. THANK YOU!
EDUCATION IS THE MOST POWERFUL WEAPON WHICH YOU CAN USE TO
CHANGE THE WORLD
- NELSON MANDELA

11. Climate Change, Viticulture
and Wine Production
Gregory V. Jones,
Director Evenstad Center for Wine Education

12. !The State of the Climate
!Wine Sector Observations/Concerns
!Future Changes and Adaptive Responses
!Summary
Talk Outline

14. ~2.7 °F
~3.6 °F

15. PNW – Annual and Seasonal Temperature
Trends for 1930-2015
Annual
Winter - DJF
Spring - MAM
Summer - JJA
Fall - SON
Linear Temperature Trend °F/decade, PNW
-0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80.70 0.1 0.50.3
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

16. PNW – Water Year and Seasonal
Precipitation Trends for 1930-2015
Water Year
Winter - DJF
Spring - MAM
Summer - JJA
Fall - SON
Linear Trend %/decade, PNW
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

17. Variable
Range in Changes
across all locations
Growing Degree-Days (Apr-Oct, base 50°F) 360-630
Growing Season Average Temperatures 2.2-2.9°F
Growing Season Maximum Temperatures 2.0-2.7°F
Growing Season Minimum Temperatures 2.3-3.1°F
Ripening Period Average Temperatures (8/15-10/15) 1.8-2.7°F
Growing Season Number of Days >95°F 5-15
Number of Days below Freezing – Annually -18 to -28 days
Number of Days below Freezing – Spring (Mar-May) -7 to -15 days
Number of Days below Freezing – Fall (Sept-Nov) -3 to -8 days
Date of Last Spring Frost (32°F) 19 to 23 days earlier
Date of Last Fall Frost (32°F) 10 to 17 days later
Frost-Free Period 30 to 40 days longer
Winter Precipitation (Nov-Mar) Highly Variable
Growing Season Precipitation (Apr-Oct) Mostly Drier
Bloom Period Precipitation (May 15-June 15) Mostly Wetter
Ripening Period Precipitation (Aug 15-Oct 15) Mostly Drier
Observed Climate Trends for Oregon 1948-2015
Jones 2005; Jones et al. 2010; USHCN 2016 update
Warmer
Temperatures
Overall
↓ Cold Events
Changes in
Frost Timing
Precipitation
variable, but
some trends

18. ! 2019 ProWein Business Report
– Globally most comprehensive trend barometer of the
international wine industry
– More than 1,700 wine industry experts shared their
observations and opinions on climate change
– Includes small and large growers and producers along
with cooperatives and retailers
– Representation across all major wine producing countries
Wine Sector Survey
2019 ProWein Business Report

19. What are the biggest threats and challenges for your company?
(% stating the following will have a strong or very strong effect)
Wine Sector Observations/Concerns
2019 ProWein Business Report

20. ! Observed Impacts to Viticulture:
– Reduced and/or increased volatility of grape yields
– Water scarcity and drought stress of grapes
– Harvest compression
– Higher demand for phytosanitary plant protection
– Other grape varieties have become necessary
! Small differences between large and small growers
2019 ProWein Business Report
Wine Sector Observations/Concerns

21. ! Observed Impacts to Enology:
– Sensory characteristics of wine have changed
– New enological technologies have become necessary
! Significant differences between small and large wineries
! Mostly due to a narrower focus on wine styles, smaller
market niches, and a more limited financial capacity to
invest into new enological equipment
2019 ProWein Business Report
Wine Sector Observations/Concerns

22. How should growers and wine producers adapt for the future?
(% stating specific ways to adapt to climate change in the future)
2019 ProWein Business Report
Wine Sector Observations/Concerns

23. ! Limits of cool climate viticulture expanding
poleward
! Consideration of boundary changes (Champagne,
Burgundy, and others)
! Relaxing rules on irrigation, acidulation and other
adaptive measures that have historically been not
allowed
! Bordeaux adding new varieties to its approved list,
France approving new hybrids for warmer climates
Wine Sector Responses

24. ! Many regions have increasing interest in learning
more about indigenous cultivars in Greece, Cyprus,
southern Italy, Portugal
! Research in Israel on cultivar performance in
climates that mimic what we expect in the future
! International Wineries for Climate Action, Porto
Protocol developed to engage the sector and
collaborate on adaptive and mitigative responses
Wine Sector Responses

25. Climate Suitability
Jones, 2006 and others
!What does a changing climate
mean for a given wine region?
!The Willamette Valley has
already seen significant
warming from:
! 1961-1990
! 1981-2010
! 1991-2020 (estimated)
Willamette
Valley
© Gregory V. Jones

26. Climate Suitability
Jones, 2006 and others
!Continued average warming
from current conditions would
push the regions climate
envelope …
!Warming of 2-6°F is projected
to occur in the region by 2040-
2060
+2°F +4°F +6°F
Willamette
Valley
© Gregory V. Jones

27. Summary

28. ! Warming of ~1.8-3.4°F has occurred over the last 40-50
years in wine regions globally, along with increases in
weather and climate variability
! Grapevines have responded with earlier phenology of ~4-8
days per 1°F of warming
! Meta-Analysis: ~3.0-5.0°F warming likely in wine regions
globally by 2050, with plants likely exhibiting an additional
7-21 day shift in phenology
! Increasing climate variability highly likely
Summary

29. ! PNW projected to see wetter winters, drier summers,
decline in snowpacks
! PNW projected to see increases in heat extremes and
greater drought frequency
! Global to regional wine industry challenges include:
‒ Changes in ripening characteristics and wine styles
‒ Water resource issues
‒ Long term varietal suitability
‒ Increasing adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability
Summary

30. ! Opportunities for a more sustainable wine sector, include:
− Realizing the large genetic potential for adaptation
− Realizing the large landscape potential for adaptation
− Developing regenerative agricultural approaches
− Optimization of training systems, canopy geometry, row
orientation, and increasing the use of shading materials
− Improved understanding of scion-rootstock combinations for
a region’s soils and climate
− Improved grapevine water use efficiency and irrigation
management, where necessary/possible
− Better understanding of the climatic potential of varieties
Wine Industry Adaptive Potential

31. Climate Change, Viticulture
and Wine Production
Gregory V. Jones,
Director Evenstad Center for Wine Education

32. Farming and Making Alternative
Varieties for a Changing Climate and
Maturing Market
Farming Logistics and Metrics

33. Case Study: Chehalem Mountain Vineyard

34. Case Study: Eola Springs Vineyard

35. • Preparation
• Block assessment
• Identification of blocks conversion or planting
• Quality, production metrics, vigor potential, trellis retrofit need?
• Block health: will it be a viable conversion?
• Percentage of Trunk disease, soil pest, or virus…better to replant?
• Conversion Timeline:
• Winter: assessment and material sourcing. March: vine prep. April-June: grafting season.
• Variety selection: what is marketable…good question.
• Budwood sourcing: Grape growing Community, Foundation Plant Services (UC
Davis), Clean Plant Center Northwest, Grey Creek Viticultural Services, Nurseries
• Virus testing: Scion block and budwood…know your risk.
• Vet the grafter: inquire within community
Farming Metrics & Logistics

36. • Costs ($/vine):
• Virus Testing $0.25 - $?...Cost drivers: cleanliness, area, availability/rarity
• Budwood $0.25 - $1…Cost drivers: source (backyard vs. outside), proprietary?
• Vine prep $1.5 - $3…Cost drivers: soil moisture, wire work, cordon?, trunk diameter
• Field Grafting $2 - $3…Cost drivers: size of project
• Cultural $3
• Metrics
• Production timeline:
• Budwood quantity: 1.5-2x buds needed per vine ~4-8 buds/vine (driven by grafting
style)
• Success: 2-10% will not take. Re-graft in house or replant
• Farming Considerations: weed mgmt, cultivation, trunk disease tracking
Farming Metrics & Logistics
Grafting Year Year 1 Post Grafting Year 2 Post Grafting
0% 50-75% 90-100%

37. OWS - Alternate Varieties
Marketing - Dr. Damien Wilson, Wine Business Institute, Sonoma State
University

38. Tell us what's important to you?
In a browser, type
● S-L-I-D-O
Click on slido.com
● Enter the code
shown here
● In the questions
tab, post at
your leisure

39. Start with the first poll of the day...
● Under the ‘Poll’ tab
● Select your answer to the
first question
“In the next 5-50 years what
grape variety do you think will
most likely become
synonymous with Oregon
wine?”
Sli.do Event code:
#OWSAlternative

40. Market Trends
● The grape oversupply is only just beginning…
○ But there remain opportunities, even with abundant supply
● US wine market value still grew in 2019, but volume went down
○ Fear is the stalling of acquisition of new customers
○ Wine is losing the on-boarding battle
● Market research shows that as markets decline, ‘blue-chips’ decline slowest
○ Stick with what works, and start researching innovation
● Lighter styles, lower alcohol, ‘Sober-curious’....
○ Responsible consumption is the new Obvious consumption
○ Think of Prosecco, lower alcohol rosés, aromatic and apéritif wine styles.
● Lifestyles, occasions and a new socially-conscious era is emerging for wine

41. Global wine production in mhl
Source: OIV
*2019 estimate
1 hl = 26,4 gallons

42. Global per capita consumption
Fun Fact: Although the total Alcoholic Beverage consumption is slightly shrinking due to fall in beer
consumption, the Global Beer Consumption is still 7 times bigger than wine consumption (source:
http://www.kirinholdings.co.jp)
Source: OIV

43. Related Research
● Regions are laser-focused on the need to recognize their piece of land
Why?
● Let’s go to sli.do for the next question….
● Q2 - About what percentage of regular wine drinkers in the US recall
Oregon's most popular AVA without prompting?

44. Related Research
It’s not an AVA focus that attracts new consumers
● Consumers have to learn that wine is an option, then style, then variety,
then region…. Before they even think about AVAs.
● That’s 5 steps of experience before AVAs become a consideration
● The two criteria that most effectively lead to wine sales are:
1. Awareness of mind
2. Availability at point of sale
Without the first point, point 2 becomes random chance.

45. So how do you grow your market in the long-term?

46. Lead with what consumers know
Start with Oregon
● Establish consistent links with the State’s image
○ Research these images, don’t guess
○ Replicate the research for Oregon wine
○ Replicate for varieties grown, and popular with customer base
○ Cross-reference, and establish a clear and consistent message
● Investigate acquisition-attrition data
○ For Oregon and competing States/Regions/Wines
○ Use these as benchmarks for evaluating strategy
○ Monitor and Adapt over time
● Invite me back here in 5 years’ time…..