4. Future of project management
• From the lifecycle model to theories of complexity
• From instrumental processes to social processes
• From product creation to value creation
• From narrow to broad conceptualizations
• From trained technicians to reflective practitioners
4Dr. Mikko Koria 24.11.2010 Extreme Projects
5. Project oriented societies
SWE UK NOR IRL DEN AUT HUN ROM LAT
POS 56 55 46 45 42 37 34 23 22
POS= Project orientation in societies
5
Thesis: Societies are becoming more project-oriented. Projects and programs
are applied as temporary organization in the industry; but also in new areas
such as schools, associations, small municipalities, and even, families.
Therefore, projects and programs, and project and program management
are not just a micro-economic concern, but also a macro-economic one.
Source: Garais, 2002
7. Project Management areas I
Three key elements
• Scope: what are we doing?
• Time: how much time needed?
• Cost: money and human resource ?
8. Project Management areas II
Additional elements
• Quality mgmt: appropriate?
• HR: how much and what kind?
• Communication: stakeholders?
• Risk management: know proactively?
• Procurement management
9. Complexity: tasks & environment
Increasing complexity of the environment (s)
Increasing complexity of the (set of) tasks
Task
orientation
Role orientation
Project
comfort zone
Programme
comfort zone
Organisational
orientation
10. Theory of projects?
• Task orientation
– Assumes perfect knowledge and is fully rational and informed (Homo
Economicus).
– Critiqued as poorly defined, impractical, a myth, benefits vague?
• Organisational orientation
– Relationships: agency theory
– Is not immune to conflict between parties, control aspects fundamental
• Role orientation
– Capabilities of actors
– Goals/benefits may remain vague
10
11. Management by projects
• Management by projects offers:
– Organisational flexibility
– Decentralized responsibility
– Stronger focus on complex issues
– Goal oriented problem solving
– Better quality solutions & wider consensus
– Individual & organisational learning
11
12. Management by projects
• Management by projects
– Projects strategically important
– Autonomy of project in terms of structure
– Base organisation creates the visions & strategies of
projects
– Continuous organisational development vital
– Project management a diffused competence, not
specialized know-how
12
13. Management by projects
• Programme vs project management
– Benefits vs efficiency
• Base organisation’s control
– Manages the strategy of portfolio of programs, projects, reporting,
community of practice, management offices
• Standardisation
– Within patterns create efficiencies, gives control
• Project management maturity
– Achieving the optimal level of development
13
17. Shenhar & Dvir (2007) NTCP Diamond adapted to recovery
Novelty
Derivative
Adapted Koria 2008
Very fast apartment block
relocation project for squatters
Complexity
Pace
Technology
Platform Breakthrough
Array System Assembly
Regular
Fast
Time-critical
High-tech
Medium-tech
Low-tech
Self-help housing project
on own land
Large and complex shelter
programme
21. Project as an assignment
• The rationale of a project? Why should a base
organisation set up a project?
– Change: adapt to externalities, enhance
competitiveness and/or earnings, improve control
– Stability: financial/social costs of change are high,
sustainable advantage, predictability, difficult of change.
21
22. Project as change
• Lewin’s change model (1947)
– Unfreezing
– Moving
– Refreezing
• Y model (Armanakis & Bedeian, 1999)
– Describe the current situation
– Describe the desired situation
– Analyse and prioritize needs of change
– Look for alternatives, make action plan
– Get approvals, implement for action plan
– Describe and evaluate the outcome
22
23. Base organization change
• Mission based activities
• Management activities
• Administrative and technical support activities
• Resistance to change is:
– Emotional
– Cognitive
– Intentional
23
24. Time in projects
• Three levels:
– Organisation
– Team
– Individual
• Different ideas of time
– Cyclical, linear, alternating back and forth
• Different ways of distributing activities in time
– Conventional network planning
– Polychonic (South Europe, South America, south –East Asia) or monochronic
(UK, USA)
– Entrainment of process (sequencing, synchronicity)
24
25. 3. Foundations of projects
• In change oriented projects, three key issues
emerge:
– How of should base organisation initiate change
(change strategy)?
– What should the base organisation look like in the
future?
– How should project work be done (implementing
strategy)?
25
26. Strategies affecting projects
• Change strategy 1 : punctuated equilibrium (Gould & Eldridge, 1977; Romanelli &
Tushman, 1994)
– Evolution is not linear, leaps and bound exist, but a repeated patterns of
relative stability punctuated by intensive activity
– Defensive strategy, change is put until last moment
• Change strategy 2: event / time pacing (Brown & Eisenhardt, 1997, 1998)
– Event pacing takes change cues from the environment
– Time pacing from predetermined cycles
– Proactive, ongoing constant change, change an obsession
26
27. Uncertainty and projects
• Lack of information
• Lack of knowledge
• Lack of control
– Operational or task based uncertainty
– Contextual / environmental uncertainty
– Acts of god
• Unknown unknowns
• Loch et al (2006) propose that deep uncertainty can only be
managed by learning and experimenting
27
29. Stakeholders in projects
• Stakeholder power forces project to do something it would not do otherwise
– Coercive power
– Utilitarian power
– Normative power
• Stakeholder legitimacy in terms of norms and values
– Individual
– Organisation
– Society
• Stakeholder urgency; demands of immediate response
– Time sensitivity
– Criticality
29
30. Establishing the project
Two issues above everything else:
• The business case: the reason/rationale why the base organisation wishes to
establish the project
– The expected changes
– The contribution of these changes
– Responsibilities
– Expected impact/value/benefits of project
• The project mandate: the assignment that the base organisation gives to the project
– Naming of project
– Identify project owners, governance and managers
– Background
– Mission
– Goals, aims; what the project is expected to achieve, success criteria
– Scope and delimitations
– Project boundaries
30
31. 4. Planning projects
• Collective effort
– Widens available expertise & experience
– Useful also for stakeholder management and ownership of projects
• Dilemma of project planning
– Decisionmaking on incomplete knowledge
• Tiered planning: three levels
– Strategic: making the desired outcomes
– Tactical: what outputs do we want to achieve
– Operational: solving how to get the outputs
31
33. Project start-up
• Project start-up activities must achieve an common understanding of
project
– Discussions between project owner and PM
– Initial planning and organising of the project
– Start-up seminar, kick-off
– Written confirmation of agreements on project mission, goals,
plans, organisation, control
– Training participants in project related skills
33
34. Milestones
• Basic units of project plans
– Anticipates what a project is supposed to achieve by pre-set
dates
– Need indicators of achievement
– Connext project goals
– Act as control stations in projects
– Must be logically linked to each other: i.e. on the same
continuum, or result path
– Linked to time scheduling, dteailed planning must exist between
milestones
34
35. 5. Organizing projects
• Organizational nature
– Action organizations generating results in terms of good,
services, through often single, focused action rationality.
– Political organizations allow for multiple rationalities, and views,
aims, conflicts.
• Four main approaches to separate politics from action
– By different organizations
– By different environments
– At different times
– As different topics
35
36. 6. Controlling projects
• Describe current status
• Assess degree of deviation between current status
and plans
• Establish causes of deviation
• Determine corrective measures
• Implement
36
37. 7. Leadership and projects
• Six directions of attention to relations
– Upwards: with owners
– Outwards: with end users
– Downwards: with project team
– Inwards: own performance
– Forwards: planning
– Backwards: control
37
38. Leadership styles of PMs
• Management is about doing things right
• Leadership is about doing the right things
• Streams of leadership theory
– Importance of leaders personality
– Importance of behaviour
– Importance of power
– Importance of context
– many/all of the above!
38
43. Strategy 1: Planning
• Management of a single project
• Execute plan and business model toward goal
• Identify and manage risk
• Learn and update within project
• Conventional project management techniques and
training apply
45. Strategy 2: Adaptation
• Management of a project network
• Plan as much as possible
• Develop a joint business model
• Create a common vision between stakeholders, political process
• Adapt to others
• Conventional project management techniques and training partly
useful
47. Strategy 3: Learning
• Management of a project-based firm
• Develop processes and protocols through learning from serial
projects
• Adapt business model incrementally to changing environment
• Conventional project management techniques and training useful in
the individual projects, not in the whole business
49. Strategy 4: Selectionism
• Management of a business network
• Concurrent evolution of alternatives
• Business model experimentation in ecosystem
• Emerging responses to unknown unknowns
• Conventional project management techniques and training useless