This document summarizes the results of consumer sentiment and price expectation surveys conducted in Virginia. It finds that consumer sentiment about future personal finances and the overall economy is optimistic but views on current business conditions are more negative. The Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment was 87.4 in February 2016, retreating from the previous quarter but above its lifetime average. CEOs surveyed were also more positive about future conditions for their industries and the Virginia economy than current conditions. The next release of survey results will be in May 2016.

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Consumer Sentiment and Price
Expectations in Virginia
Alice Louise Kassens
Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
Roanoke College

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 Released by the Roanoke College Institute for Opinion and
Policy Research (IPOR)
 Consumer sentiment (similar to the University of Michigan
index) began November 2011; Price expectations in February
2012
 Call center, ~600 completes, quarterly release
 New survey of Virginia CEOs this year (preliminary results)
 Mail and electronic, biennial?, N=310 (11.4% response rate)
The indexes

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Consumer
Sentiment
Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off
financially than you were a year ago?
Now looking ahead: do you think that a year from now you and your family living
there will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, would you say at
the present time that business conditions are better off, worse off, or just about
the same as they were a year ago?
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that the country as a whole
will have continuous good times during the next five years or that we will have
periods of widespread unemployment or depression or what?
About big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator,
stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a
good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?
Survey questions

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Price
Expectations
During the next year, do you think that prices in general will go down, stay where
they are now, or go up?
What about the outlook for prices over the next five to ten years? Do you think
prices will be higher, about the same, or lower five to ten years from
Survey questions
Probing questions included to clarify responses
*
Add additional questions as topics arise

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CEO
Survey
As you think about the current business or economic conditions in Virginia
as compared to six months ago, would you say they are considerably better,
a little better, about the same, a little worse, or considerably worse?
Looking forward from today through next year, that is, the entire 2016 year,
how would you describe your expectations for the economy in Virginia?
Now thinking specifically about your industry, how would you describe the
current business or economic conditions in Virginia as compared with six
months ago?
And looking forward from today through next year, how would you describe
your expectations for your industry here in Virginia?
Survey questions

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Virginia Index of Consumer
Sentiment (VAICS) Feb. 2016
Households more optimistic about
the future, especially overall
economy
Negative outweigh positive outlook
on business today vs. year ago
VAICS for February is 87.4
Continue retreat started Q42015,
but above lifetime average
VAICC = 97.3, VAICE = 81.0
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative
Year ago Next year Business now Big item Future economy

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 VAICC = 97.3, up 2 points since November
 Of those reporting being better off financially today compared to a year
ago, 79-percent attribute the improvement to higher income.
 Thirty-seven percent of Virginians believe that business conditions are
worse today than a year ago, a ten-point reduction since November;
twenty-eight percent report business conditions have improved.
 Nation is more positive about current conditions than Virginians
(ICC=106.8); US-Virginia gap has persisted since 2013 (sequestration?)
VAICC February 2016

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 VAICE = 81.0, down 4 points since November
 In line with national number of 81.9
 More believe the economy will prosper in the next 5-10 years than believe
it will contract, but the gap is closing
 34% believe household finances will improve in 2016, up slightly from last
quarter; 10% believe household finances will worsen
 Improved/anticipated improved wages likely source of optimism
VAICE February 2016

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Virginia vs. the US

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VAICS by region (February 2016)

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VA inflation expectations

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Additional questions

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CEO Survey (preliminary)
As you think about the current businessor economicconditionsin
Virginia as compared to six months ago, would you say they are
considerablybetter, a little better, about the same, a little worse, or
considerablyworse?
Looking forward from today through next year, that is, the entire 2016
year, how would you describe your expectationsfor the economyin
Virginia?

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CEO Survey (preliminary)
Now thinking specifically about your industry,how would you
describe the currentbusinessor economic conditionsin Virginia as
compared with six months ago?
And looking forward from today through the next year, how would you
describe your expectationsfor your industryherein Virginia?

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CEO Survey (preliminary)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Engineering & Construction
Food & Beverage
Financial
Manufacturing
Retail
Service
Wholesale & Distribution
Future Current Overall

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Next release: May 2016
kassens@roanoke.edu
(540) 375-2428