A Collaborative Modeling Approach - Singletary
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70th SWCS International Annual Conference July 26-29, 2015 Greensboro, NC
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A Collaborative Modeling Approach - Singletary
- 1. A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Assess Resiliency of Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems: Results from an Organizational Survey of Water Managers Kelley Sterle1 Karen Simpson2 Loretta Singletary3 Maureen McCarthy4 Derek Kauneckis5 Mike Dettinger6 1UNR Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences 2University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) Department of Political Science 3UNR Cooperative Extension 4UNR Academy for the Environment 5Desert Research Institute 6United States Geological Survey Newlands Project, NV Oct 2014 70th Annual SWCS, Greensboro, NC July, 2015
- 2. Presentation Agenda • Challenges to Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems • Place Based Research: Project Location • Assessing Climate Resiliency • Collaborative Modeling Approach • Hydro-climatic Model Integration/Scenarios • Organizational Survey -- Preliminary Results • Research Moving Forward
- 3. Climate Change Challenges in Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems • Warming temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain versus snow, decreasing snowpack – Snowmelt timing impacts runoff • Changes to timing and length of growing season • Changes in weather patterns may increase aridity • Warming temperatures may increase irrigation demand – Threatens agricultural based economies and food security • Projected increases in intensity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events
- 4. Truckee-Carson River System (TCRS) Population: c. 400,000 States: California (headwaters), Nevada (middle/lower reaches) Urban Areas: Reno, Sparks, Carson City Agricultural Areas: Newlands Project, Carson Valley, tribal agriculture Tribal Governments: Pyramid Lake Paiute, Fallon Paiute-Shoshone, Washoe
- 5. Place-based Research • Climate: – Sierra Nevada temperature follows the global average • Water: – Sierra Nevada snowmelt supplies Great Basin water to agriculture, urban communities and environmental services – System has both groundwater and surface water – Truckee River has high levels of upstream storage – Carson River has no upstream storage • Policy and Economics: – Regulated by Prior Appropriation Doctrine – who uses how much, for what purpose, when and where – Highly litigated river system (over adjudicated during low flows) – High diversity of water uses, expected to increase
- 6. Irrigating the Arid Western US: The Newlands Project
- 7. • Understands, acknowledges, anticipates and absorbs changing conditions • Capacity to adapt, respond effectively and to reorganize as necessary to maintain essential community functions and identity Truckee Canal, Oct 2014. What is a Climate Resilient Community?
- 8. Climate Change Uncertainty • High degree of uncertainty surrounding extent and impact of climate change – Issues of downscaling global models to regional levels – Changes in local environmental/meteorological conditions – Impacts on local political, social and economic systems • Climate scenario development effective way to assess climate resiliency and uncertainty – Indicates reaction of system to a variety of changes – Discovers the subset of harmful or catastrophic scenarios
- 9. Interdisciplinary Collaborative Modeling • Co-develop climate-stress scenarios with stakeholders • Understand the impact of climate change on the hydrologic system • Understand human decision- making under climate extremes • Determine the efficacy of alternative water policies under climate extremes Lahontan Reservoir, Oct 2014.
- 10. Water for the Seasons Methodology: Collaborative Modeling Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 11. Climate Modeling Collaborative Modeling and Participatory Research Water for the Seasons Model: CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Purpose: Develop ~5 climate scenarios for the TCRS using interview thresholds, indicators and historical data Climate Scenarios Surveys and Interviews Method: Organizational and Producer Level Survey Purpose: Thresholds and indicators Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Method: Collaborative Modeling Hydrologic Modeling Truckee River Watershed Model: GSFLOW Purpose: Coupled surface and groundwater to predict streamflow and water supply Model: Riverware Purpose: Operations Model: MODFLOW Purpose: Groundwater Model: GSFLOW Purpose: Coupled surface and groundwater to predict streamflow and water supply Model: MODSIM Purpose: Operations Carson River Watershed System-wide Evapotranspiration Purpose: Account for the open water and agricultural evaporation loss from hydrologic budget
- 12. Collaborative Modeling Team Timeline Interview Water Managers Survey Water Rights holders Construct SAG Collaborative modeling (SAG) Agent-based modeling Report and distribute resilience results Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four
- 13. Water Management Organizations Survey Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 14. Organizational Survey Methods (n=~70) • Face-to-face interviews with water managers – How do changing climate conditions stress water resources on the river system? – What information from climate and hydrologic models are most useful to water managers? – What policy instruments are perceived as most useful for adapting to or mitigating water stress – and how feasible are they for implementation? How will the responses to these questions aid in assessing community level climate resiliency?
- 15. Organization Interviews INSERT JACOBS LATEST MAP OF ORG OFFICES with n = ? Results to date illustrate n = 14
- 16. Priorities during Drought • Municipal use • Agricultural water supply • Ecological restoration and wildlife • Domestic wells, cultural uses and hydro-electric power
- 17. Scenario Data: Drought Indicators Stakeholders in different parts of the river system pointed to different years and periods as severe droughts 1930’s 1977: Upper Carson 1987-1994: Tahoe, Truckee, and Carson 1970s: Lake Tahoe (Truckee Headwaters) 2015: Truckee and Carson
- 18. Hydro-Climatic Modeling Climate Scenarios Surface Water Models Groundwater Models Operations Models ET Models Precipitation and Temp Water use, Irrigation, Crop type, Operational rules Water supply thresholds, qualitative impacts Develop Scenarios Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Iterated Scenarios
- 19. Collaborative Modeling: Drought Impacts and Responses Organizations reported varied reactions: • NGOs doing ecological restoration not that concerned because they are planting drought tolerant native plants • Irrigation district unable to tolerate more than 1-2 years of drought; alternative crops not an option because insufficient water supplies to set them • Fernley (small town in lower reach) has both surface and groundwater supplies, but cannot use surface water because its treatment plant is designed for groundwater
- 20. • Agriculture: Most impacted due to increased irrigation needs. Quality and quantity of the crop is jeopardized. • Hydrologic losses: More storage good, but warmer temperatures increase evaporation losses. Many recommend storing excess water underground. • Environmental: Warmer temperatures challenge environmental restoration projects and fisheries spawning from both increased water temperatures and less water flowing through the system. • Economic: Recruit low water industries, but hotter temperatures increase cooling costs. Does Temperature Matter?
- 21. Present and Future Stressors • Population growth • Unsustainable development and water use Is Climate Change Important • Nearly 100% say it is very important
- 22. Research Moving Forward: Agricultural Producer Survey Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 23. Producer Survey Methods • Face-to-face interviews with stratified sample – Impact of temperature, soil moisture, seasonality – Drought/flood thresholds for agriculture – Feasibility of adaptation strategies – Policy, economic or physical barriers to adaptation – Interaction between producers and other parts of the system (BOR, tribal, state and local governments) • Mail survey to TCRS agricultural producers
- 24. The Stakeholder Affiliate Group (SAG) Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 25. SAG Methods (n=~12) • SAG – representatives of key local interests – Discuss/evaluate/respond to scenarios and models • Simulated modeling of the system as a whole, because it includes key local decision-makers • Increases communication among local stakeholders and across scientific disciplines
- 26. Integrated Modeling Methodology Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 27. Modeling Complex Systems Local climate scenarios Local hydrologic models Collaborative Modeling Iterated hydro-climatic scenarios Local Stakeholder Input: -Organizational Survey -Producer Survey Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
- 28. Unexpected Effects • Laws/policies/projects have at least two aspects – Formal (the text of a law, the goal of a policy, purpose of a project) – Applied (implementation, actual effects, unintended consequences) • Gap between goal and implementation • Collaborative modeling methods can fill this gap by seeking out and including local knowledge
- 29. Nevada Water Law and Prior Appropriation • Water law in Nevada requires that water rights holders demonstrate “beneficial use” – Use all of their allocation every 5 years or lose it – Leads to inefficient water use--distorts incentives • Water rights are tied to land parcels – During a drought this can prevent moving water to more productive land within an operation – Irrigators who switch to pivot sprinkler risk losing water right allocated to the “corners” of a field
- 30. Agricultural Production and Climate Change Adaptations • Interaction between agricultural producers and: – Natural systems: temperature/transpiration, growing season, soil moisture – Policy systems: rules for allocation, management of reservoirs, basin-wide agreements – Other competing users (ecological, recreation, M&I) • Assess flexibilities and vulnerabilities of agricultural producers to: – Ability to adapt: changes in crops/crop rotation, irrigation practices, etc. – Ability to change which land is irrigated and when – Management of local irrigation system – Informal water-sharing/storing mechanisms
- 31. Thank You Water for the Seasons Team: Greg Pohl, DRI Sheshadri Rajagopal, DRI Rich Niswonger, USGS Justin Huntington, DRI Staci Emm, UNCE
Editor's Notes
- This 4-year project is funded by National Science Foundation and US Department of Agriculture Water Sustainability and Climate program.
- Discuss climate change driven challenges , focus is on a snow-fed arid land river system in the USA, explain our CM and PR approach to research, explain the interdisciplinary aspect of our approach, applications specifically to agricultural water users and finally the potential for applying our model to study climate change influences in other arid locales.
- Specific issues related to climate change facing the western United States motivate a place-based study for water sustainability and climate. These issues are not unique to snow-fed arid land river systes in the western US however. These climate changes include warming temps which cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, decreasing snowpack and ultimately impacts the timing of snowmelt runoff Warming temps change the timing and length of growing seasons Climate scientists tell us that changes to weather patterns may increase aridity and certainly warming temps increase irrigation demand– threatens ag based economies and food security
- Two watersheds originate in the Sierra Nevada(translates to snowcapped mountains) range, and flow eastward to irrigated lands in western Nevada. The two river systems that dominate the watersheds are connected via the Truckee Canal. Truckee River flows 195 kilometers and is sole outlet of Lake Tahoe draining the Sierra Nevada, empties into Pyramid Lake in the Great Basin. Carson River also drains Sierra Nevada empties into Great Basin and flows about 211 kilometers. Both are endorheic or closed river basins – water does not flow into ocean but rather into the ground as seepage and ET. Both rivers provides water municipalities, irrigation districts/farmers, environmental NGOs, American Indian tribal communities Types of uses include: fisheries, agricultural, industrial, municipal, environmental (ecological/wildlife restoration/preservation), cultural uses and recreational uses
- Temperature shifts in the Sierra Nevada represents a global average, thus model predictions developed in this local can be interpolated elsewhere. The difference between the Truckee and Carson (built-up vs. natural flow river system) allows for a kind of comparative case study between two different levels of storage capacity, management schema and resilience Diversity of system allows research team to study impact of climate change on many different types of water users/uses and interactions between many different types of water uses/ users in this context. 4. The use of water the western US is governed by what is known as the "Prior Appropriation Doctrine ". This system of water allocation controls who uses how much water, the types of uses allowed, and when those waters can be used. A simplified way to explain this system is often referred to as "first in time, first in right." An appropriation is made when an individual physically takes water from a stream (or underground aquifer) and places that water to some type of beneficial use. The first person to appropriate water and apply that water to use has the first right to use that water within a particular stream system. This person (after receiving a court decree verifying their priority status) then becomes the senior water right holder on the stream, and that water right must be satisfied before any other water rights can be fulfilled. Special Note: Environmental component of water management is something Turkey is just starting on. This slide was in case anyone asked how a project that is done in an area that is rather different than Turkey (TCRS has different water rights system, more fisheries, less ag., is much richer, etc.) could be applicable to Turkey.
- SPECIFIC IRRIGATION PROJECT OF INTEREST: Pictures are: At Left: A map of the Newlands Project, with reservoirs circled in red, and the irrigated areas circled in yellow. Top Right: Derby Dam (from BOR), Bottom Right: TCID irrigation ditch, for context. The Newlands Project was first Reclamation Project built as a result of US Reclamation Act of 1902, which funded irrigation projects in arid lands in the American West to increase economic development of these arid lands—through agriculture. The project constructed Derby Dam and the Truckee Canal (which joined the Truckee with the Carson River) and an elaborate system of canals and ditches to deliver water for agricultural irrigation –flood irrigation through surface water appropriated through Prior Appropriation Doctrine. Main point: TCID is a large irrigation project that had unexpected impacts on the natural river system, and unforeseen difficulties with its function (including ongoing increasing costs of O&M)—that are important and would be difficult to see without interview data. MORE DETAILS FROM KAREN: In Nevada, these funds were used to build the Newlands Project, which involved the construction of Derby Dam, which created storage further down on the Truckee, the Truckee Canal, which connects the Truckee and Carson River, and allows water from the Truckee to be moved into the project, which is located further south, and the Carson Diversion Dam. Also constructed were a set of irrigation canals, diversions, and drainage ditches. Lahontan Reservoir was built in 1911 to supply the projects, after plans to build a dam at Lake Tahoe. Later negotiations allowed for the construction of a 6 ft dam on the Lake. Currently, water for the Newlands Project is also stored in Prosser, Donner, Boca and Stampede Reservoirs. The Truckee Carson Irrigation District was formed in 1918, to represent water right holders within the Newlands Project. In 1927, it took over responsibility from the federal government (Bureau of Reclamation) for operation and maintenance of the irrigation system, Lahontan Dam, the Truckee Canal, Derby Dam and the dam at Lake Tahoe. It is also responsible for delivery of the water to irrigators and to the Fallon Paiute Shoshone, whose reservation is north of the project. In a normal year, they deliver 215,000 af of water to irrigators. This arrangement has caused a few problems, including: 1. The O&M fees charged by TCID are insufficient to manage and update the infrastructure Impact: there is a great deal of leakage and water loss, because canals are unlined, and in disrepair. This is exacerbated during drought, because the dry earth absorbs more of the water, so it is harder to push water through the system. There is so much leaking in the Truckee Canal the City of Fernley relies on the groundwater caused by absorption of the leakage for its usable water supply. 2. In conjunction with prior appropriation doctrine, TCID must make sure senior rights holders get their water—and some users have rights that are senior to the rest of the Newland Project, which requires filling the system to service the older rights. 3. Interactions with the Tribe: The Fallon Paiute Shoshone Reservation is located near the end of the TCID system. TCID supplies water to the tribe, but the tribe has to abide by the irrigation district’s delivery schedule, which isn’t always commensurate to their needs. The same thing occurs with the wildlife reserves managed by US Fish and Wildlife (federal organization), that are also near the end of the system. (The start and end of the irrigation season are set by law—that is, when it is possible to start irrigation and when irrigation must stop, although there is some flexibility within the range of these dates. However, TCID won’t irrigate unless it has orders of 1000 af—but sometimes, they don’t call for their water because they are at the end of the system, and sometimes TICD doesn’t supply it even if they call, when they want it, because water has to fill the system to get all the way to the end… so the irrigation district might choose to wait until there are orders from farther upstream).
- How do we define a climate resilient community?
- One of the most challenging aspects of climate adaptation at the community level is gauging the range of uncertainty in model predictions. Which change will dominate? Hotter summers, less snowpack – the models are complex and global in scale, so interpreting climate change projection data at the watershed-scale is very challenging. This slide is a segway into scenario and collaborative modeling as a means to tackle uncertainty in climate projections. By using scenarios, communities are not just preparing for ONE event. Assessing resilience means looking at how a system would adapt to a whole range of shocks and changes—to figure out where the thresholds are, and what subset of scenarios are, respectively: 1) not a problem, 2) a mild problem, 3) a serious problem, 4) a devastating problem. Extra notes: This is useful because there is a lot of uncertainty about the local impacts of climate change—even with good data. And even with the global impacts of climate change (remember how there are at least 4 scenarios, with associated temperature ranges). For long-term planning, the uncertainty increases—so looking the range of conditions a system can tolerate is useful.
- Our team comprises experts from the fields of political science, hydrology, climatology and resource economics. As an interdisciplinary team, we are tasked to assess the resiliency of the system by…
- CONDUCTING INTERVIEWS AND INTERACTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS IS KEY Local water managers/water users have practical knowledge about how hydroclimatic conditions affect their daily operations and the river system Utilize this knowledge to bridge gaps in the public record/academic knowledge
- Here is a geographical depiction of collaborative modeling process, including hydrologic and climate modeling. Using the threshold data collected from the interviews, climatologist will be carefully stitching together approximately 5 climate scenarios for the region. CMIP5 refers to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 which is the outcome of 20 climate modeling groups from around the world. This is the fundamental piece of our CM process… allowing the organizations and stakeholders to set the bounds of climate stress in the region. The major outputs of these scenarios will be temperature and precipitation, and are not expected to produce the same magnitude or intensity in each region of the watershed. For example, 50% average snowpack in the Sierra Nevada may have one effect on the headwaters, but have a cumulative effect downstream where water resources have been stressed to a greater degree. Hydrologic modeling features a suite of US Geological Survey models to simulate coupled surface and groundwater hydrology at the watershed scale. A focused GW model is being developed for Truckee Meadows (Reno – highly urbanized with high residential demand for water and increased pumped expected under drought conditions). Operational (rules administering water use) models are either coupled with the hydrologic model, or in the case of the Truckee Meadows GW Model, will be advancing the use of Riverware to assess how groundwater recharge may change as a function of changing operational rules as recommended in the Truckee River Operating Agreement. Evapotranspiration is one of the most challenging processes to account for in the hydrologic water budget, but will be accounted for across irrigated and open water (ie: lakes, rivers, canals) surfaces.
- Our work has started with the an interdisciplinary team of researchers designing and leading collaborative modeling process. The CM team is taking responsibility for integrating hydroclimatic models with stakeholder input, researcher input and policy or institutional structure/options. Integrate characteristics (interview data) of local social, economic and policy systems with hydro-climatic models Assess the impact of different climate scenarios on these local systems Evaluate resiliency of TCRS human systems using stakeholder input (qualitative data) Conduct analysis on the human impact of climate change in snow-fed arid/semi-arid basins Conduct outreach and facilitate discussion between local stakeholders and researchers Document Water for the Seasons model as a method transferrable to snow-fed arid lands regions
- Currently, we are focused on the first phase of stakeholder input and data collection – the organizational survey. Interviewing water managers on the system. Local water managers include irrigation district managers, state office of water engineer, environmental organizations who own/lease water for specific projects, federal, state, county and municipal organizations with water management responsibilities
- These are face-to-face interviews to understand managers’ roles and responsibilities on the system and how changing climate conditions would challenge their function on the system. Varies from open ended to very targeted questions (to get detailed information for modelers) above the severity of drought or flood, the duration, and what barriers inhibit their ability to adapt or continue functioning. For example… {pick an interesting example?} … Maybe TNC… too high flow is OK, but drought prevents our restoration projects from surviving.
- General role on the system. Operational responsibilities/interests. Operational logistics. Constituents/populations served. Organization type. Geographical location. We will be using some of these acronyms… TCID, BOR. We begin by asking them to summarize their water management activities in the region. Karen will now present you with an analysis of the organizations interviewed.
- These are face-to-face interviews to understand managers’ roles and responsibilities on the system and how changing climate conditions would challenge their function on the system. Varies from open ended to very targeted questions (to get detailed information for modelers) above the severity of drought or flood, the duration, and what barriers inhibit their ability to adapt or continue functioning. For example… {pick an interesting example?} … Maybe TNC… too high flow is OK, but drought prevents our restoration projects from surviving.
- We asked stakeholders to tell us when the worst historic drought was, and got different answers for different parts of the river system. Stakeholders may know more about when changing hydrologic and climatic conditions affect them and their communities, specifically, because they have day to day experience with different dry periods. Collecting this data gives the modelers measures of drought that are integrated with human systems, and can help them decide which set of hydro-climatic conditions they will use to build relevant scenarios. Asking stakeholders about drought/flood impacts and adaptation has a similar effect—the intensity of impacts and options available for amelioration vary greatly. This helps with the qualitative evaluation of resilience—and also gives us more data to feed the modelers (we might tell them, “when a severe drought happens, X organization/sector shuts down”—and then they can select hydro-climatic parameters for a severe drought, build that into their model, if they want to test the impact of X organization/sector being in danger of shut-down).
- And I’d like to share one example of how our data collection is aiding in the concurrent development of climate scenarios. FOCUS ON THE “DEVELOP SCENARIOS” RED CIRCLE – you’ll have already explained the blue boxes in the beginning. {Next slide is one example of a data collected to aid in scenario development.}
- {This slide is meant to focus on the qualitative data we give the modelers - and how the information will be taken to the SAG and then reiterated} So how do we interpret the quantitative data (for example, a year or period of drought) as the users/managers perspective with richness captured in the interview? Drought impact different sectors and organizations in different ways. Some of these impacts are tied to structural conditions, i.e. agriculture usually needs a lot of water for crops, NGOs that are doing ecological restoration and are planting drought tolerant native plants need less, and some are tied to contingent conditions, i.e. a city that has access to both surface and groundwater, but only has facilities for treating groundwater. Surveying/interviewing organizational managers/water users can improve data on the specific impacts of drought, tolerance to drought, and where vulnerabilities exist.
- # 3 - . Recall Stillwater and TNC.
- These are face-to-face interviews to understand managers’ roles and responsibilities on the system and how changing climate conditions would challenge their function on the system. Varies from open ended to very targeted questions (to get detailed information for modelers) above the severity of drought or flood, the duration, and what barriers inhibit their ability to adapt or continue functioning. For example… {pick an interesting example?} … Maybe TNC… too high flow is OK, but drought prevents our restoration projects from surviving.
- We are also in the process of developing the producer level survey. {next slide is producer bullets}
- We anticipate… This will allow our CM team to gather stakeholder-level insight in addition to management level defined threshold.
- We are concurrently working to flag prospective SAG participants.
- {Karen background: When writing this slide, I was thinking that the organizational/producer surveys give us a lot of information about the parameters of the human systems (and some physical systems) associated with this river basin, as well as internal function. However, when it comes to looking at unusual circumstances/scenarios, each interviewee can only give us their own impression.} When we bring key decision-makers, or org. representatives, into a room together—in some sense, we can simulate how the whole (or most) of the system would interact with an unusual event. So, once we get the SAG running with the scenarios, they are in, some sense, acting as a kind of aggregate Riverware for the human system! Also: included outreach segment, because there is some indication that the complexity of water management in Turkey might make getting as many people, from different areas of water management/use, into a room together on equal terms a useful thing. I have read some information that Turkey does have a certain amount of popular participation in water management—but nothing quite like this, where all of the key orgs. within a local area get together and talk it out.
- The hydrologic models are being developed concurrently. It is not one holistic model, so there exists integration within the physical science models as well as the larger CM process.
- The SAG is a major component of our CM process that evolves through the duration of the project, and beyond.
- Especially at the producer level, the stakeholder interviews will allow our team to interpret how laws, policies, projects operate in “real-life”. This information is key for understanding how a system actually functions, and how it might respond to stress. {next slide is an example of why prior appropriation had unexpected effects}
- An example of a law that had unexpected effects that has already surfaced in org interviews, and is likely to be a topic in producer surveys and SAG. Prior Appropriation and is a good one. The two unexpected effects are both tied to inefficient water use: Use it or lose it, because it calls for full use within a period, whether that is necessary or not Losing the corners of a plot may make producers less likely to install (water efficient) sprinkler systems
- Summary of the applications of project to agriculture specifically.