Predictability of Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability on Water and Crop Yields in the Missouri River Basin, and Its Use in Agricultural Adaptation

1. Predictability of Impacts of Decadal Climate
Variability on Water and Crop Yields in the
Missouri River Basin, and Its Use in Agricultural
Adaptation
Vikram M. Mehta
The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture – National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Grant 2011-67003-30213 under the NSF-USDA-DOE Earth System Modeling Program.
⦿ Objectives of this project
⦿ Importance of the Missouri River Basin (MRB)
⦿ Decadal climate variability (DCV) impacts on MRB water and crops
⦿ Data and models
⦿ Major accomplishments and other outcomes
⦿ The future?

2. The Team
Vikram Mehta, Norman Rosenberg, Katherin Mendoza, and Hui Wang
The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland
Cody Knutson, Nicole Wall, Tonya Haigh, and Tonya Bernadt
National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska
Bruce McCarl, Mario Fernandez, Pei Huang, Jinxiu Ding,
Theepakorn Jithitikulchai
Raghavan Srinivasan, Prasad Daggupati, and Deb Debjani
Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas
Amita Mehta and Saikumar Popuri
NASA-UMBC Joint Center for Earth System Technology, Catonsville, Maryland
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

3. Using the Missouri River Basin as a case study:
☞ To develop an ‘end-to-end’, decadal climate
and impacts prediction system
☞ To develop an adaptive water and agriculture
management system
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Overarching Objectives

4. Importance of the Missouri River Basin
Missouri River Basin
Largest
river
basin
in the US
Covers
500,000
sq. miles,
10 States,
many Native
American
reservations,
parts of
Alberta and
Saskatchewan
Value of crops
and livestock
over
$100 billion
per year
117 million
acres cropland,
only 12 million
acres irrigated
Produces 46% of wheat, 22% of grain corn, 34% of
cattle in the United States
Dependence on the Missouri River for drinking water, irrigation and industrial needs, hydro-electricity, recreation, navigation,
and fish and wildlife habitat
Over 2000
urban centers
of various sizes
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

5. Urban Areas in the Missouri River Basin
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Over 2000 urban areas
Increasing
competition
for water
among
various
sectors

6. Droughts and Water in the Main Stem Reservoirs
Water in the Main Stem
Reservoirs
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Severe to Extreme DroughtArea
(Lower figure, courtesy Kevin Grody, USACE)

7. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and wheat production in the MRB
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Average
production
6.6 million
tons
Average
production
13.8 million
tons
Correlation coefficients between the PDO and wheat production time series
0.5 without smoothing and 0.65 after smoothing all time series.

8. Decadal Climate and Impacts Information for
Decision Support in the Missouri River Basin
DCV
phenomena
Influences
on Basin
hydro-
meteorology
Influences
on
Agriculture
Urban water
Industries
Navigation
Recreation
Others
Rural and
urban
economies;
Local,
regional,
national,
international
economies
Adaptation
strategies
via
understanding,
prediction, and
scenario
development
Data,
information,
and
decision-
support
systems
Active
involvement of
stakeholders
and
policymakers
Applications
In various
sectors
A system adaptable
to other river basins also
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

9. Data and Models
◉ Observed streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey: Many gauge
locations, 1961 - 2010
◉ Crop yield estimates from the USDA – National Agricultural Statistical
Service (NASS): County totals, 1961 - 2010
◉Observations-based precipitation, daily max. and min. temperatures,
surface winds, surface air humidity: 12 km x 12 km, 1961 - 2010
◉Decadal sea-surface temperature and hydro-meteorological predictions
by 4 Earth System Models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL CM2.1, UKMO-HadCM3,
and MIROC5): Monthly, various spatial resolutions, 1961 to 2010
◉Calibrated and validated 12 km x 12 km version of the Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the entire MRB
◉ Water and crop choices model RIVERSIM, optimized for the MRB
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

10. Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Prediction
System for Decadal Climate and
Hydro-meteorology
1961 – 2010
ocean-
atmosphere-
land hindcasts
Earth System Model
(ESM)
1961-2010
=me history
of
greenhouse
gases,
volcanic and
other
aerosol
op=cal
depths, solar
radia=on;
Projected
values
aFer 2010 Ensemble
ini=aliza=on system;
10-year experiments
ini=alized in 1960,
1970, …, 2000
2011 – 2036
ocean-
atmosphere-
land forecasts
Dynamical System for SST Prediction
(CMIP5)
Models used in this study
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
GFDL – CM2.1
UKMO – HadCM3
MIROC5
NCAR – CCSM4

11. SWAT Setup and Calibration - Validation
ŸCharacterization of ~ 14,000
watersheds
ŸSub-watersheds and streams
ŸLanduse – land cover at
30 m resolution, crop rotation and
irrigation
ŸIrrigated land and soil data
ŸPrecipitation, temperature, winds,
solar radiation data at 12 km x 12 km
ŸCrop yield calibration; Winter and
spring wheat, corn (dryland and
irrigated), soybean (dryland and
irrigated)
ŸWater yield (total surface and base
flow) calibration
ŸWater abstractions and other man-
made changes not captured
Calibration and validation in each of
these 11 land use classes
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

12. Types of SWAT Experiments
SWATObserved Hydro-
meteorological
data; 1961 - 2010
Idealized
Hydro-
meteorological
data from
DCV scenarios
Water yield,
stream flow,
crop yields
Comparison
with observed
data; 1961 - 2010
SWAT Water yield,
stream flow,
crop yields
Inter-comparison
of impacts of
scenarios
SWATHindcast
Hydro-
meteorological
data; 1961 - 2010
Water yield,
stream flow,
crop yields
Comparison
with observed
data; 1961 - 2010
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

13. Observed and SWAT-simulated streamflow anomalies (cu. m/s)
in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90) Epochs
Dry: 1987 - 90
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
USGS
SWAT
Wet: 1982 - 86
USGS
SWAT
Decreased flows in western
Montana and northern Kansas,
and increased flows elsewhere
Increased flows in western
Montana and northern Kansas,
and decreased flows elsewhere

14. Observed and SWAT-simulated winter wheat yield
anomalies (t/ha) in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90)
Epochs
Wet: 1982 - 86 Dry: 1987 - 90
Decreased yields in western
Montana and southeast MRB,
and increased yields elsewhere
Increased yields in western
Montana and southeast MRB,
and decreased yields elsewhere
NASS
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
SWAT
NASS
SWAT

15. Selected sub-basins for development of predictability and
adaptation methodologies
Platte
Lower
Grand
James
Marias
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

16. Decadal prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
index by the MIROC5 Earth System Model: 1981-2020
Vertical dashed lines – forecast start times
Shading:
±1 std. dev.
of ensemble
Impacts
prediction
periods
indicated
by
PDO+
1982-84
2003-06
PDO-
1988-90
2007-13
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

17. ehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA
Winter wheat prediction in the Platte River sub-basin
Winter wheat
yield anomaly
prediction with
50-year NASS
data statistics
PDO+
Winter wheat
yield anomaly
prediction with
SWAT
Actual 1982-84
Actual yield
anomalies
PDO-
Actual 1988-90
Predicted PDO+ 1982-84 Predicted PDO- 1988-90
Vikram M 17 December 2016

18. ehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA
Barley prediction in the Marias sub-basin
Barley yield
anomaly
prediction with
50-year NASS
data statistics
Barley yield
anomaly
prediction with
SWAT
Actual 1982-84
Actual yield
anomalies
Predicted PDO+ 1982-84 Predicted PDO- 1988-90
Actual 1988-90
PDO+ PDO-
Vikram M 17 December 2016

19. Corn prediction in the James River sub-basin
Corn yield
anomaly
prediction with
50-year NASS
data statistics
Actual yield
anomalies
Predicted PDO+ 2003-06 Predicted PDO- 2007-13
Actual
2003-06
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Actual
2007-13

20. Why is there value?
ŸDecision makers would likely make adjustments for revised
expectations of crop yields and water supply.
v If farmers knew water demands would be higher and supplies smaller,
they might plant a smaller area.
v If they knew some crop yields would be lower and others higher, they
might shift crop mix.
v If water planners knew water would be short, they might encourage
conservation, reduce use, and negotiate options to buy out some
agricultural water rights.
ŸThese actions compared to actions based on the historical climatic
record would generate value.
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Value of decadal climate information to MRB
agriculture

21. Difference
82 29 53
• Modeling Scope
– 16 crops, 411 counties in MRB; irrigated and dryland
cropping; municipal and industrial water use
– DCV impacts on 5 crops: wheat (spring and winter), corn,
sorghum, soybeans; hydrological flow balance; reservoir
storage
• Uncertainty about which combination of phases of major DCV
phenomena will occur in the next one year
• Includes crop insurance
Value of DCV Information (in million $)
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016
Perfect information on
next year’s DCV phase
relative to historical
frequency
Reduced uncertainty
on next year’s DCV
phase (based on this
year’s phase) relative
to historical
frequency
Water and Agriculture Choices RIVERSIM model

22. NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA
Decadal climate variability based crop adaptation options for farmers
Example: Corn – soybean – wheat – hay planting choices in
the Platte River sub-basin, given DCV phase combination prediction
PDO+, TAG- PDO-, TAG+
Vikram Mehta 17 December 2016
Corn Corn
Hay Hay
Soybeans Soybeans
Winter
wheat
Winter
wheat

23. Summary of accomplishments
• Simulations of DCV phenomena and their decadal
predictability assessed in four Earth System Models (ESMs)
• Statistical hydro-meteorological prediction system, using
predicted DCV indices as predictors, developed
• Statistical downscaling scheme developed for ESM data
• Very high resolution land use-hydrology-crop model Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated and validated for
the MRB; water and crop yield simulation and prediction
experiments conducted
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

24. Summary of accomplishments
•Skillful, multiyear to decadal prediction of indices of the PDO
and other DCV phenomena possible in some cases, especially
since the 1980s.
•These predicted DCV indices are shown to be useful for
multiyear to decadal prediction of water yields, streamflow, and
crop yields in the Missouri River Basin.
•The predicted crop yields are shown to be useful for, among
other applications, adaptation of choice of crops to plant.
•Value of DCV information to MRB agricultural economy
estimated at $30 – 80 million per year.
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

25. Research Capacity-building
Project people: 6 senior scientists, 2 research scientists, 1 post-doctoral
scientist,1 research associate, 5 Ph.D. students, 16 undergrad. students, 3
outreach specialists, 1 web programmer, 1 administrative officer, 1
information technologist
Minorities and Under-represented groups: 6 women, 1 Hispanic
Institution network: 1 non-profit organization and 3 Universities
Project website: Missouri.crces.org
Stakeholder Advisory Team (SAT): Representatives from water,
agriculture, and natural resources management sectors in the MRB;
academics; state and federal officials
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

26. Other outcomes
Completed Ph.D.s: 4 (TexasA & M University)
Ph.D. in progress: 1 (University of Maryland – Baltimore County (UMBC))
Undergraduate student interns: 16 in UMBC under the NSF Research
Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program
Papers published: 7; Papers in preparation: 4
Conference/Workshop and other talks and posters: 10
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

27. The Future?
●Decadal prediction of water and crop yields at the county
level and development of fine-scale adaptation options in the
MRB.
●County-level assessment of value of DCV information to
agricultural economy in the MRB.
● Simulation and prediction of coupled food-energy-water
securities in the MRB and the Mississippi River Basin.
● Adaptation of models and methodologies to the Mississippi
and Ohio River Basins to develop prediction and adaptation
systems for water, crops, and water-borne transportation of
agricultural and other materials/products.
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

28. Thank you!
Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016