This presentation is the part of 12-day (28 January–8 February 2019) training workshop on “Multi-scale Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) from the Hindu Kush Himalayan Perspective” organized by the Strengthening Water Resources Management in Afghanistan (SWaRMA) Initiative of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), and targeted at participants from Afghanistan.

1. 08-Feb-19
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Strengthening Water Resources Management in Afghanistan (SWaRMA)
Upstream-Downstream linkages and Multi-scale Integrated River
Basin Management
Santosh Nepal, Climate and Hydrology Group Lead, ICIMOD
Contents
• Interactive components of a river basin
• Scales issues of river basin management
• Issues of integrated river basin management across a different scale
• Examples of success stories for water resources problems
• Multi-scale issues and relevancy
• Summary
Agriculture
Hydropower
Aquifer recharge
Snowmelt
Glacier melt
Irrigation
Navigation
Large settlements
GLOF
Landslide
Avalanche
Springs
Erosion
Deforestation
Landslide
Floods
Flash flood
Sedimentation
Flood
GW depletion
Upstream
Midstream
Downstream
Upstream-
downstream
Linkages
Opportunities
Threats
Mandi phat @ Palpa
Linkages at different scales
Upstream and downstream relationships occur at different scales. The magnitude and nature of
problems and related effects differs between the local micro catchment scale and the regional
macro river basin scale (Nepal et al. 2014)
Upstream-
downstream
Linkages
Source: FISRWG 1998
Upstream downstream linkages
• Any activities and process which
happen in the upstream areas might
have downstream impact.
• They could be both natural processes
(like snow and glacier melt) or
anthropogenic (land use land cover
change, infrastructure)
• Beneficial and harmful (eg. pollution
or reforestation)
• Backward and forward linkages

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Upstream downstream linkages are integral part of the inter sectoral integration
Cross sectoral integration in IWRM
Water for
People
Water for
Food
Water for
Nature
Water for
other
uses
Cross sectoral integration
Enabling
environment
Institutional roles
Management
instruments
IWRM Framework
Global water partnership, 2000
Implement of IWRM
• Roles and functions of
organizations at different
levels
• Institutional capacity
building
• Role of government
• Water legislation
• The cross-sectoral and
upstream-downstream
dialogue
• Financing structures and
investment allocations for
water resources
infrastructure
• Co-operation within
international river basins
• Water resources
assessment: availability
and demand
• Communication and
information systems
• Water allocation and
conflict resolution
• Regulatory instruments
• Direct controls
• Economic instruments
• Encouraged self-regulation
• Technology
Enabling environment Institutional roles Management instruments
Global Water Partnership, TWG, 2000
What is a relevant scale?
• Scales are connected in a
nested approach
• Trade off between data,
heterogeneity, understanding
and applications
• Impact assessment at
relevant scales
• Appropriate mechanism to
share benefits and risk
Challenges of integration in space and time
Downstream
Upstream
Drinking Irrigation
Balancing integration
among different sectors,
seasons and geographical
region is a challenging task
Adaptive water
management under
climatic uncertainty
What are the upstream downstream linkages

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Revisiting key questions regarding upstream-downstream
linkages?
1. Impacts of LULC change on downstream water availability
and flooding?
2. Impacts of erosion and sedimentation on the downstream
areas ?
3. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime and
downstream water availability?
4. Impacts of infrastructure on downstream (upstream)
environments?
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Interacting components of
upstream-downstream linkages
Nepal et al. 2014, Eco. Process.
ET
melt
Temp
Erosion
sedimentation
Glacier storage
Precipitation
infiltration
Infrastructure
• Understand the cause-and-effect relationships
• Support development and planning of:
– Infrastructure
– Agriculture and livelihood
– Mountain development
• Build cooperation and eliminate misconception
Why is it important to understand UD linkages?
It flows downstream…..
261 international
rivers, covering 45% of
the land surface of the
earth.
19 of these basins are
shared by five or more
states (Wolf et al.
2010).
The Tube City Tiger Takes Matters Into his own Paws
Q1: LULC change and hydrology
• Hydrological significance (regulating
and recharge)
• Flood control?
• Erosion control
• Forest resources for biodiversity and
livelihood
• Infrastructure development
• River morphology
• Young and fragile mountain formation
• LULC and other anthropogenic activities
Q2: Erosion and sedimentation

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Deforestation and erosion
Deforestation scenarios
Q3: climate change impact on water resources
• Mountains are highly sensitive to climate change
• Water sources for downstream communities
• Role of water in socio-economic development
• Climate induced hazards and disaster
ngozumpaglacier,Everest region
Q4: Impact of water-related infrastructure development
on downstream water flows
• Too much and too little water
• Hydropower and dams
• Opportunity and risk
• Transboundary cooperation??
Summary for UD linkages related to 4 key questions
• Vegetation has positive impact on regulating water resource (eg. GW recharge);
for large river basins, upstream vegetation has a limited role in downstream flood
control, but, the effect may be visible in small scale catchments
• In large river basins, impact due to human activities (farming and land use
change) is likely to be low compared to natural processes in the HKH
region(fragile geology, monsoon, steep topography etc)
• Climate change is affecting downstream water availability; the reduced glacier
storage might cause reduced river flow in the longer run. The formation of glacial
lakes may pose threat to downstream infrastructure
• Climate projection data has large uncertainty and so the projection on future
hydrology
• UD communities may benefit from compensation mechanism (eg. payment for
ecosystem services)
Permafrost change Snow cover change
Changes on water availability
(floods, droughts,seasonal changesand extremes)
Water supply,
Hydropower, Energy,
Drinking water, health
Livelihood, Irrigation,
Agriculture, Tourism,
livestock, Fisheries
Ecosystem(diversity,
aquatic, river)
Social, cultural,
institutionaland
others
Glacier change
Impacts on different sectors
Glacial lake formation/growth
Runoff and changes
Land use land cover
changes
Changes in precipitationand
temperaturepatterns
Changes in resources
managementand utilizations
Other Storages
(groundwater, soil) changes
Upstream
Midstream
Downstream
Socio-economic changesClimate change
Resources Management
practices
Changes on river morphology
(sedimentation,river channelshifting)
Interventions (Infrastructure)
Discussions
• In your opinion, what are the relevant upstream downstream linkages in the case
of Afghanistan and Kabul river basin?
• Do you know any studies on these linkages ?
• How IRBM can address these linkages?

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IWRM issues at different scales
11-23 % increase by the end of the century 1.7-3.6 oC increase by the end of the century
Future climate change scenarios for Nepal
• Wetter and Hotter climate towards the end of the century
• National Adaptation Plan (NAP) formulation process by MOFE, DHM and ICIMOD
25% decrease in glacier area in Nepal from 1980 to 2010
• Glacier area decreased from
• ~1980: 5168 km2
• 2010: 3902 km2
What could be the impact on downstream
water availability?
(Bajracharyaet al. 2014, ICIMOD)
Drying springs
• At a local level in mid-hills,
springs are very important for
livelihood
• Springs are drying, why?
• [20-30% springs have dried
up within the last decade in
Kavre]
How to revive drying springs?
Gender in water management
Is there equal
participation in decision
making process?
Climate change Impact on snowmelt
and discharge
Dudh Koshi, Mt Everest region
Snowmelt pattern:
• Decrease in snowmelt by 31% (+2oC) and
60% (+4oC)
• Changing from a ‘melt-dominated
river‘ to a ‘rain-dominated river‘
Nepal, et al. 2014
Snowfall pattern:
• Decrease in snow fall in future scenarios
• More ‘rainfall’ than ‘snowfall’
• Changing from a ‘melt-dominated
river‘ to a ‘rain-dominated river‘
(Nepal, 2016)

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Increasing disaster risk
• Floods, flash floods, GLOF, landslide, erosion and
sedimentation
• Climate change is accelerating the magnitude and frequency
of extreme events.
• The 50-year level floods are likely to increase by 100% in Koshi river
basin (Winjngaard et al. 2017)
• GLOF could have serious impact on downstream communities
• The cost of Imja GLOF could be 11 million USD (Khanal et al. 2015)
What could be the cooperation mechanism to reduce disaster
risk across the basin?
Sedimentation in the
Koshi river basin
• 100 million tons/year sediment is
originating in Chatara
• Substantial aggradation of
sediment in downstream Plain
areas
How much sediment load
is originating?
How much
sediment load is
originating?
100 m/t/year
80 m/t/year
43 m/t/year
Multi-scale issues and relevancy
Complexity and Heterogeneity
LocalwatershedRiverbasinTrans-boundary
Connect these
issues across
different scales
Governance
mechanism to
address the issues
in the river basin
Addressing IWRM at different scales
Reviving the drying springs
• Springs are lifeblood of mountain
communities
• Important to increase recharge areas in
mountain hillslope, where possible
• Identify recharge areas based on hydro-
geological concept (8-step methodology)
• Regulatory arrangement required
• Capacities of local stakeholders needs to
be enhanced
• More effective use of science is crucial
NWCF and ICIMOD,2016
Water Use Master Plan (WUMP)
Upstream-downstream linkages at local level
• Higher benefits to downstream VDCs
• Both communities willing to cooperate
What could be mechanism to bring these communities
together for larger watershed management ?
Upstream VDCS
Agri land: 134 ha
Springs: 83
Crop value /ha: 146,000 NRs
Crop value: 43 million NRs
Downstream VDCs
Agri land: 193 ha
Springs: 28
Crop value/ha: 284,000 NRs
Crop value: 144 million NRs

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Community based flood early
warning system
• Real time information of flood risk for
preparedness by providing sufficient lead
time by community themselves
• Low cost, locally manufactured, telemetry
• Successfully implemented in Nepal, India,
Pakistan and Afghanistan
• ‘UNFCCC’s Global Award’ Assam India
Multi-scale integrated management
• These issues (and many more…)
are dominated and relevant at
various scale (local to regional,
national and transboundary)
• Geographical scale impacts
opportunities for participation
and spatial scope of decision-
making
• Careful consideration of
upstream-downstream linkages
at various scale
Integrated River Basin Management approach is -
Minimising risk
Flood Drought Erosion
Sedimentation
LandslideGLOF
• What are the
risks at the
river basin?
• How the risks
are connected
across the
scale?
• Who are the
vulnerable
groups?
... and
Maximising benefits
Irrigation Biodiversity Hydropower IndustryDrinking water
• What are the
opportunities
related to
water
resources?
• How to
balance the
water uses
across the
sectors?
• Who are the
beneficial
groups?
Lessons learnt for upscaling
• Need to shift from policy and institutional
reforms to local level pragmatic water
management
• IWRM implementation at local level
provides opportunities for upscaling at a
river basin level
• Water Use Master Plan,
• Light IWRM,
• Water parliament
• In Nepal, new federal structure has ample
opportunity to learn from local level
solutions http://www.cavancoco.ie
Summary
• Minimizing risk and maximizing benefits are the key priorities of integrated
river basin management
• Upstream-Downstream linkages need to be considered across different scales
• These issues need to be assessed at the relevant scale where the impact is
prominent
• A multi-scale IRBM approach can offer a flexible framework
• This requires appropriate governance structure relevant to different scales

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RIVER BASINS & CRYOSPHERE 43
Thank you