Presentation made at the 4th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management (Paris, 28-29 May 2015). For more information, visit the meeting webpage: http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/4th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm.

1. Expert Panel 3:
Anticipation techniques used in crisis management cells
Carole DAUTUN
Head of risks and crisis department
National Institute for advanced studies in security and justice
(INHESJ)
An example of anticipation methods used
in the French Prime Minister crisis cell

2. The National Institute for Advanced
Studies in Security and Justice
• Institute under the supervision of the Prime Minister
• Objectives of the Institute :
• Anticipating changes in order to inform public decision-makers
• Acquiring a better knowledge of real-life situations
• Analysing risks and threats
• Creating practical tools for security professionals
• Informing and training people in charge of security
• Enhancing multidisciplinary meetings and partnerships
• …in the fields of security, health, environment, and justice

3. Risks and Crisis Department
• Specialized in management training and crisis communication
• Composed of a multidisciplinary team
• Instructional design combining conceptual contributions, case
studies and simulation exercises
• Support organizations on these subjects
• Studies and research on decision processes and human behaviors
• Design of methodological tools for policy makers and animation of
interdepartmental working groups
INHESJ 2015

4. The crisis process
A crisis situation emerges from a dynamic and ongoing process that:
 is carried and handled
by men and women
 takes its source within the organizations,
 outbreaks through a triggering event,
 is amplified by the
presence of a particular
context and/or human
or managerial factors,

5. Anticipation
 Anticipation can be defined as the ability to imagine the
future potential of a situation.
 The anticipation of a crisis engenders the creation of
different scenarios of evolution in time of a given situation
and integrating a reading of interactions and potential
impact.
 Anticipation is the continuum of diagnosis of the situation at
time t (the same criteria of assessment)
 Prospective reading of a crisis therefore requires a broad,
multidisciplinary, interdepartmental and interprofessional
vision

6. Objectives of the anticipation cell
 The anticipation cell should provide assessment and
understanding of the crisis by integrating various elements as
the context ;
 It should propose potential scenarios of evolution of the
situation and action plans for every conceivable position ;
 And answer all requests made by the decision maker.

7. Methodology

8. Conceptual Framework (1)
 SYSTEMIC APPROACH
A crisis situation is often coincident with a complex situation
which can be apprehended by systemic approach.
This approach allows to collect and visualize the phenomenon
of a crisis in its completeness while taking into account its
characteristics, its dynamics, and the set of capabilities
implemented.
Such an approach applied to crisis situations provides relevant
modeling and analysis framework used as a decision support
tool.

9. Conceptual Framework (2)
 RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH
The analysis, the evaluation and the anticipation of a crisis
situation must be done through using quantitative and
qualitative criteria.
This work integrates the concepts of risk analysis methods
and more particularly the method known as "causes-
consequences".

10. Aggravating factors
5 analysis units
Events and consequences
Context
Organizations - Stakeholders
Communication
Modeling a crisis situation

11.  Objectives : how the crisis will evolve in the future and so answer the
question “how will the situation change ?”
 Three steps :
 Situation assessment
 Prospective diagnostic
 Scenario and actions plan
 Different criteria and set of questions to assess and imagine the
crisis in the future
Methodology (1)

12. STEP 1 : situation assessment
Objective :
 To characterize the crisis at a time t (context, event, consequences, etc)
Question : « What is happening? »
STEP 2 : prospective diagnostic
Objective :
 To characterize the crisis at a time t+x (context, event, consequences, etc)
Question : « How may the situation evolve? »
STEP 3 : scenarios and proposition of measures and actions
Questions : “What influence can we have on the situation?”
“How to implement a desired future?”
Methodology (2)

13. Methodology (3)
Formulate hypothesis
of work and
timeframe :
• Ordered by the
decision-maker
(scenario in six hours,
in fifteen days, most
likely, the worst, exit
crisis, …)
• Since the beginning,
with a new event,
• Etc

14. Methodology (4)
STEP 1 :
SITUATION ASSESSMENT
STEP 2 :
ANTICIPATION
CONTEXT
What is the context?
How can the context change?
What is its impact on the situation?
What is the calendar now ?
( holidays, celebrations)
TRIGGER EVENT
According to the information
available, what is the nature of the
event?
How can progress the event (s)
(based on expert opinion)
ORGANISATIONS
What are the available capacities to
meet the challenges of shares and
when are they available?

15. Methodology (5)

16. Some recommendations
 The anticipation team must be reduced in number (5 or 6)
 Transversal vision, interdepartmental, interprofessional,
multidisciplinary;
 Be in capacity to integrate different perspectives and facets of
the crisis (not only linked to its core business)
 Be creative;
 Think out of context;
 Intellectual approach applicable in many situations.

17. Thank you for your attention
Who was responsible for organizing the panic?