this ppt of disaster mamagement modulle 6

1. Contents• Introduction
• Risk Assessment
• Risk matrix
• Steps of Risk Assessment
• Vulnerability analysis
• Working with scenarios

2. Introduction
• Disasters occur frequently and often place a substantial burden on affected
populations.
• Disasters are defined as singular large-scale events that cause serious disruptions of
the function of a community or a society and involve human, material, economic or
environmental losses or impacts.
• Those losses or impacts often exceed the community’s or society’s ability to control
or cope with the disaster using its existing resources.
• The objective of a Disaster Management Plan is to ensure effective mitigation plan
and best possible protection of the members of the society during a disaster
occurrence.

3. • Disasters can occur at any point of time.
• It is essential to predict possible scenarios and consider the mitigation plan
and also plan for protection for all the involved individuals during occurrence
of a disaster.
• If the inhabitants of a structure are aware of the protocols to be followed
during a disaster, loss of life can be averted.

4. Risk Assessment
• Risk evaluation or risk assessment means that an analysis is used to assess
whether a risk level is acceptable or not.
• Moreover, different opportunities to reduce the risk (if they exist) can be
included. The evaluation is a suitable basis for planning and implementing
risk-reducing measures, which is one purpose of risk and vulnerability
analyses.
• Since there is no established level for what constitutes an acceptable or
tolerable risk, risk evaluation in a risk and vulnerability analysis often deals
with evaluating a number of alternatives for how the risk can be reduced.

5. • The evaluation itself is based on weighing advantages of proposed measures
against their drawbacks and coming to a conclusion on whether the measure
should be implemented or not.
• The evaluation should be based on the effects the measures proposed are
estimated to have on the level of risk – that is, how much they reduce the
risk, and the costs they entail.
• One way of showing the connection between proposed measures and the
effect is to start from the results of the risk analysis.
• They provide a picture of the situation before the measure has been
implemented. The effect is subsequently described through showing how
the measures will affect the risk.

6. • Concretely, this means showing how a measure of interest affects the
answers to the three questions:
• (1) ‘What could happen?’
• (2) ‘How likely is it?’ and
• (3) ‘What are the consequences?’
• One way of doing this is showing which risk scenarios will be influenced by
the measure in question, and at the same time describing how likely it is
that the scenarios will occur, and what the consequences will be.
• With the help of this information, it will be easier to compare the costs of
the measures with their effect on the risk.

7. • A risk evaluation is performed twice in a risk and vulnerability analysis.
• The first time is an issue of taking a position on which of the various risk
scenarios that have been identified, and which the organization chose to go
further with, in order to evaluate crisis management capacity.
• The second time is when crisis management capacity is analyzed, and there
is a basis for performing the final risk evaluation.
• This is an issue of determining whether the risk level is acceptable or not, as
well as whether any measure to reduce the risk level is to be implemented

8. Risk matrix
• A ‘risk matrix’ is a common tool used in risk
evaluations.
• It consists of two merged scales, and is used for
assessing how likely it is that a specific risk
scenario will occur, and what the consequences
would be.

9. Steps of Risk Assessment

10. Vulnerability analysis
• Vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics of a person or group and their
situation that influences their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover
from the impact of a hazardous event”.
• Vulnerability represents the susceptibility of a given population to harmful effects
from exposure to hazardous events. It directly affects disaster preparation, response,
and recovery.
• Hazardous event can directly or indirectly affect the health status of an individual or a
population
• The vulnerability analysis aims at analysing, in detail, how serious and extensive a
specific incident affects society or the organization itself.

11. • Various vulnerabilities are identified with the help of the analysis.
• An important difference between a vulnerability analysis and a risk analysis
is that the former is carried out with regard to a specific risk scenario
identified in the risk analysis.
• A further difference is that the vulnerability analysis analyses one or more
scenarios with the intention of identifying various vulnerabilities in more
detail than in the initial risk analysis.
• The consequences that society or the organization itself – despite its
capacity – failed to anticipate, resist, manage, and recover from indicate how
vulnerable the organization is to a specific incident.

12. Working with scenarios
• In analyzing capacity and vulnerability, it is normal to work on relatively
detailed descriptions of various types of risk scenarios.
• One of them is that a scenario in general is easy to take in and understand,
even for those who normally do not work with risk and vulnerability analyses.
• Another advantage is that scenarios, to a great extent, make it possible to
assemble several specialist competences for joint analyses and assessments.

13. For a scenario to be useful, it could be described
and formulated as shown below:
• The scenario is based on a threat or source of risk, and can be described as one or
more incidents that are directly or indirectly connected to each other. It is thus the
introduction to the scenario and should preferably be identified in the preliminary
risk analysis.
• The cause consists of the underlying circumstances that lead to the scenario and – if
they exist – any special circumstances that trigger the situation.
• The context is the situation in which the scenario takes place. It can, for example, be
the circumstances, geographic location, or weather-related conditions that are of
significance for describing the scenario.
• Direct consequences are the immediate effect the scenario has on people’s lives and
health, societal functionality, and the basic values within the time period the scenario
is to illustrate.