The document discusses the collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet and lessons this holds for economic modeling. It notes that the ice sheet collapse is now irreversible and will lead to over 1 meter of sea level rise in the short term and much greater rises long term. While increased CO2 emissions and temperatures have contributed, the causal mechanisms are more indirect, involving stronger winds pushing warmer waters and increased effects from the ozone hole. This demonstrates the difficulty of controlling complex, adaptive systems and how unintended consequences can arise. The document argues that economic modeling would benefit from considering systems-level emergent behaviors rather than assuming rational representative agents and comparing standard optimization models to a complexity approach. It questions the overconfidence some economists placed in models prior to
An Inside Look at the Politics of Climate ScienceFabius Maximus
This document summarizes a presentation given by Roger Pielke Jr. on the politics of climate science. It describes how Pielke's research questioning links between climate change and increasing disaster costs led to a "campaign of personal destruction" against him, including being fired from 538. Despite his work being consistent with IPCC reports, he was accused of being a climate denialist. The document reviews the latest science on extreme events like hurricanes, floods and drought, finding little evidence that disasters have increased due to climate change, though this view risks ending one's career.
You Can’t Say That! Journalism, Science and Politics,Fabius Maximus
This document summarizes a presentation by Roger Pielke Jr. on journalism, science, and politics related to climate change and extreme weather events. Pielke discusses how his research showing no trends in normalized disaster losses has been attacked. While the IPCC initially cited his work, later reports misrepresented his conclusions. Pielke shows peer-reviewed data do not support claims that climate change is increasing disaster costs, though social and economic factors are primary drivers of increasing losses. The politicization of science can undermine understanding of extreme events and appropriate policy responses.
From Economic Fantasy to Ecological Reality on Climate ChangeSteve Keen
This was an invited talk to the Oxford Department of International Development "Climate Change and the Challenges of Development Lecture Series", on my criticisms of the application of neoclassical economics to climate change. I focus on the new paper by Dietz et al. that allegedly calculates the economic costs of tipping points:
Dietz, S., J. Rising, T. Stoerk and G. Wagner (2021). "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(34): e2103081118. (https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118...)
Upon closer examination, this papers fails to consider tipping points in any credible way, and this is obvious in its incredible claim (in the original sense of the "not credible"), that:
“Tipping points reduce global consumption per capita by around 1% upon 3°C warming and by around 1.4% upon 6°C warming"
This is ridiculous: the tipping points they consider are: Arctic summer sea ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (“Gulf Stream”), the Amazon Rainforest, the Indian Monsoon, Permafrost, and Ocean methane hydrates. If all 8 of these tripped--especially with a temperature 3-6°C above pre-industrial levels, we would be experiencing a climate utterly unlike anything Earth has seen for tens of millions of years.
The thought that this would just reduce global consumption by just 1.4%--compared to what it would be if none of these tipping points were triggered--doesn't pass what Nobel Laureate Robert Solow once called "the smell test": "every proposition has to pass a smell test: Does it really make sense?". I show why this paper stinks in Solow's sense.
This document summarizes Sheri Markose's presentation on using multi-agent financial network models (MAFNs) and global macro-net models for macroprudential policymaking. It discusses two key issues with traditional approaches: the paradox of volatility in market data and negative externalities. MAFNs can help visualize systemic risk through bilateral financial data to identify super spreaders and assess network stability. The presentation also covers applications in derivatives modeling, sectoral flows of funds, and insights from country network analyses. Eigenvalue analysis of network structures is discussed as a tool for measuring systemic risk and stabilizing financial systems.
The document discusses how the elements of a music video production work together to create a sense of branding. Key elements included creating a timeline, storyboard, shot list and budget. Location scouting and choosing camera angles, lighting, costumes and props were important. Extensive editing was needed to join various shots together into a cohesive final video. An album cover was also created to attract audiences and indicate the genre of music. Finally, a website was made to promote the artist and album, allowing viewers to watch the video, comment, and purchase branded merchandise, helping to create a sense of branding for the artist.
2014.02.11 - NAEC Invitation_Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012OECD_NAEC
This document analyzes productivity trends in 13 advanced countries from 1890 to 2012 using labor productivity per hour worked and total factor productivity. It finds two major productivity waves, one following the second industrial revolution and boosting US productivity in the early 20th century, and the other following the ICT revolution in the late 20th century. Productivity leadership changed over time from Australia and the UK to the US to some European countries late in the 20th century. The analysis finds no consistent global convergence in productivity levels and detects breaks linked to major events like world wars, financial crises, and policy changes.
The document summarizes a seminar presented by the OECD Economics Department on approaches to fiscal consolidation that balance growth, equity, and global rebalancing objectives. It proposes a methodology for selecting consolidation instruments based on their short- and long-term impacts. Instruments are ranked from most to least desirable based on quantitative assessments. Country-specific rankings are developed based on cyclical position, inequality, and current account. Simulations show the extent of consolidation different countries may need to achieve and which instruments would likely be used. Structural reforms can ease trade-offs by improving efficiency.
An Inside Look at the Politics of Climate ScienceFabius Maximus
This document summarizes a presentation given by Roger Pielke Jr. on the politics of climate science. It describes how Pielke's research questioning links between climate change and increasing disaster costs led to a "campaign of personal destruction" against him, including being fired from 538. Despite his work being consistent with IPCC reports, he was accused of being a climate denialist. The document reviews the latest science on extreme events like hurricanes, floods and drought, finding little evidence that disasters have increased due to climate change, though this view risks ending one's career.
You Can’t Say That! Journalism, Science and Politics,Fabius Maximus
This document summarizes a presentation by Roger Pielke Jr. on journalism, science, and politics related to climate change and extreme weather events. Pielke discusses how his research showing no trends in normalized disaster losses has been attacked. While the IPCC initially cited his work, later reports misrepresented his conclusions. Pielke shows peer-reviewed data do not support claims that climate change is increasing disaster costs, though social and economic factors are primary drivers of increasing losses. The politicization of science can undermine understanding of extreme events and appropriate policy responses.
From Economic Fantasy to Ecological Reality on Climate ChangeSteve Keen
This was an invited talk to the Oxford Department of International Development "Climate Change and the Challenges of Development Lecture Series", on my criticisms of the application of neoclassical economics to climate change. I focus on the new paper by Dietz et al. that allegedly calculates the economic costs of tipping points:
Dietz, S., J. Rising, T. Stoerk and G. Wagner (2021). "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(34): e2103081118. (https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118...)
Upon closer examination, this papers fails to consider tipping points in any credible way, and this is obvious in its incredible claim (in the original sense of the "not credible"), that:
“Tipping points reduce global consumption per capita by around 1% upon 3°C warming and by around 1.4% upon 6°C warming"
This is ridiculous: the tipping points they consider are: Arctic summer sea ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (“Gulf Stream”), the Amazon Rainforest, the Indian Monsoon, Permafrost, and Ocean methane hydrates. If all 8 of these tripped--especially with a temperature 3-6°C above pre-industrial levels, we would be experiencing a climate utterly unlike anything Earth has seen for tens of millions of years.
The thought that this would just reduce global consumption by just 1.4%--compared to what it would be if none of these tipping points were triggered--doesn't pass what Nobel Laureate Robert Solow once called "the smell test": "every proposition has to pass a smell test: Does it really make sense?". I show why this paper stinks in Solow's sense.
This document summarizes Sheri Markose's presentation on using multi-agent financial network models (MAFNs) and global macro-net models for macroprudential policymaking. It discusses two key issues with traditional approaches: the paradox of volatility in market data and negative externalities. MAFNs can help visualize systemic risk through bilateral financial data to identify super spreaders and assess network stability. The presentation also covers applications in derivatives modeling, sectoral flows of funds, and insights from country network analyses. Eigenvalue analysis of network structures is discussed as a tool for measuring systemic risk and stabilizing financial systems.
The document discusses how the elements of a music video production work together to create a sense of branding. Key elements included creating a timeline, storyboard, shot list and budget. Location scouting and choosing camera angles, lighting, costumes and props were important. Extensive editing was needed to join various shots together into a cohesive final video. An album cover was also created to attract audiences and indicate the genre of music. Finally, a website was made to promote the artist and album, allowing viewers to watch the video, comment, and purchase branded merchandise, helping to create a sense of branding for the artist.
2014.02.11 - NAEC Invitation_Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012OECD_NAEC
This document analyzes productivity trends in 13 advanced countries from 1890 to 2012 using labor productivity per hour worked and total factor productivity. It finds two major productivity waves, one following the second industrial revolution and boosting US productivity in the early 20th century, and the other following the ICT revolution in the late 20th century. Productivity leadership changed over time from Australia and the UK to the US to some European countries late in the 20th century. The analysis finds no consistent global convergence in productivity levels and detects breaks linked to major events like world wars, financial crises, and policy changes.
The document summarizes a seminar presented by the OECD Economics Department on approaches to fiscal consolidation that balance growth, equity, and global rebalancing objectives. It proposes a methodology for selecting consolidation instruments based on their short- and long-term impacts. Instruments are ranked from most to least desirable based on quantitative assessments. Country-specific rankings are developed based on cyclical position, inequality, and current account. Simulations show the extent of consolidation different countries may need to achieve and which instruments would likely be used. Structural reforms can ease trade-offs by improving efficiency.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's presence and build relationships between her and her female audience.
El 80% de tus clientes están respresentados por un buyer persona con patrones comunes. ¿Los conoces? Tu organización debe tener claro quién es su buyer persona y el momento que están preparados para la venta. Todo tiene que estar alineado y en coherencia con la misión y visión de tu organización.
Tim Bergling, better known by his stage name Avicii, is a Swedish electronic musician, DJ, and record producer. Some of his achievements include being ranked in the top 3 of DJ Mag's Top 100 DJs poll from 2011-2013, receiving two Grammy nominations, and becoming the first DJ to headline Radio City Music Hall in New York City in 2012. Avicii actively engages with his fans through social media like Twitter and Facebook, where he posts about upcoming concerts, shares fan photos, and holds contests. He has also released the album True in 2013 and has collaborated with artists such as David Guetta, Lenny Kravitz, and Madonna.
Prezentacija o iskustvu sa stručnog usavršavanja financiranog iz Programa za cjeloživotno učenje. Prezentirana je tema sustavnog vođenja iz pozicije CARNeta.
The document discusses conventions in media and how the author's magazine product both follows and challenges conventions.
It follows conventions such as layout, colors, fonts, cover lines, barcode placement, and teasing quotes and images inside the magazine. However, it challenges conventions by featuring both a designer and model on the same page, rather than just women models, to make it a unique concept.
The target audience is described as females ages 18 to 49 from urban, middle to upper class backgrounds who are interested in street fashion and value appearance. The language and topics are made broadly understandable to fashion lovers while still using some industry terms.
The product engages audiences through attractive colors, themes, and fonts to catch viewers' attention like real media texts. Professional photographs taken with a DSLR also draw in audiences. The magazine would be distributed through an online website and mobile application to introduce it and get early feedback, allowing the creator to research advertisers and audiences. After establishing an audience, physical copies would be sold in stores for Rs. 230, packaged in plastic to encourage purchase rather than browsing in the store.
Instagram, Facebook, and Vine are social media platforms that allow users to share different types of media. Instagram focuses on photo sharing, Facebook enables sharing of photos, music and other content, while Vine specializes in short 6-second video clips. These social networks provide ways for people to communicate and share parts of their lives with others around the world.
This document summarizes a presentation on evolutionary game theory and its implications. It discusses how evolutionary game theory provides an alternative paradigm to the standard economic approach of rational choice and equilibrium analysis. It outlines concepts such as evolutionarily stable strategies and how preferences and behaviors evolve over time through strategic interactions. A key result is that "homo moralis" preferences that balance self-interest and adherence to moral rules like Kant's categorical imperative are evolutionarily stable, while other preference types are unstable. This suggests humans naturally develop a balance between self-interest and morality.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's image and brand while informing fans about her new music, tours, and merchandise.
2014.03.18 - NAEC Seminar_Assessing the vulnerabilities of social institution...OECD_NAEC
This document discusses the vulnerabilities of social institutions like pension systems, health care systems, and unemployment insurance to various risks and shocks. It outlines trends that affect social spending like population aging. Charts show how aging will decrease support ratios and increase pension and health spending. Macroeconomic shocks can also impact unemployment insurance spending. The document recommends policy options to make systems more sustainable and resilient to risks, like increasing retirement ages, cost sharing in health care, and active labor market policies for unemployment insurance.
This document discusses developing a solution called Complio to help small and medium enterprises comply with privacy and data regulations for their ecommerce and cloud businesses. It proposes a freemium business model where a basic privacy policy generator is offered for free to attract customers, with additional compliance tools and services available for a fee. It outlines developing an initial minimum viable product and acquiring customers through content marketing, partnerships, and offering a limited free version to drive adoption of paid upgrades and subscriptions. The goal is to provide DIY compliance tools that are affordable and easy for SMEs to use.
The document discusses the global economic crisis that began in 2007 and its causes and consequences. It identifies the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as the immediate trigger that spread worldwide. This led to a financial crisis as banks and institutions failed, resulting in a credit crunch that impacted the real economy through reduced growth, rising unemployment, and falling consumption and investment. A subsequent European sovereign debt crisis further threatened the global economy from 2009 onward as countries like Ireland, Portugal, and Greece struggled with rising debt levels and faced austerity measures and bailouts. The crisis revealed weaknesses in the Eurozone system and spurred various emergency measures, though a long-term solution of a European fiscal union is still being worked toward.
012_20160726_Sustainable energy production and utilizationsenicsummerschool
This document discusses sustainable energy production and utilization. It begins with an overview of the exponential speed of technological development and its implications. Examples are given of how technologies like fax machines, walkmans, and desktop PCs have been developed and replaced within a single lifetime. Exponential growth is also discussed through examples like bacteria population growth and internet growth. The document examines challenges with current fossil fuel utilization like supply limitations and environmental impacts. It argues this provides motivation for sustainable energy utilization.
The document discusses the formation and goals of the Post-Crash Economics Society at the University of Manchester. The society was formed to advocate for pluralism and alternative approaches in economics education after mainstream economists failed to predict the financial crisis. It critiques how mainstream economics has become dominated by a single paradigm and marginalized dissenting views. The society aims to campaign for curriculum reform and bring discussions of alternative approaches like Post-Keynesianism and Marxism into economics education. However, the university rejected a new course on financial crises proposed by a lecturer involved in the society.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report on climate change. It discusses the IPCC's role in assessing scientific literature on climate change and outlines dangerous impacts of increased greenhouse gases. The report projects that average global temperatures will rise 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius by 2100 even with emission reductions and outlines major concerns like sea level rise, water stress, and effects on the Arctic. It calls for urgent global action on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Modern Philosophy and Climate Change.pptxAdam Briggle
Part 1 of a 2 part series on the root causes of climate change. This part introduces the question and then develops a problem-oriented way to understand climate change.
This document discusses complex systems approaches to sustainability and environmental problems. It defines key concepts like sustainability, complexity, emergence and feedback. It notes that many environmental issues arise from the emergent behaviors of large numbers of people acting individually in unsustainable ways. Experts interviewed discuss how addressing these problems requires considering socio-technical systems and multiple interconnected scales. They note a lack of feedback between individual actions and their global impacts. Natural systems exhibit complexity through interconnectedness and feedback loops, while human systems are often oversimplified.
22. TCI Climate of the Nation Flagship Report 2012Richard Plumpton
This document summarizes the findings of a report on Australian attitudes toward climate change in 2012. It was conducted through focus groups and surveys between April and May 2012, a time of highly politicized debate around climate change policies in Australia. The research found that Australians were uncertain about the science of climate change, unconvinced by carbon pricing solutions due to fears over rising costs of living, and had lost confidence in experts and governments on the issue. However, attitudes remained fluid and could still be influenced on both the reality and solutions regarding climate change.
This document discusses the scales and linkages involved in global change issues. It notes that global change challenges like delivering food and water do not operate independently, but are coupled subsystems within larger Earth systems. It emphasizes the need to understand the spatial and temporal scales and lags between systems, as well as their interconnections. The document recommends embracing transdisciplinary global change science as a new discipline and incorporating global change education into school curricula in order to address these complex and interlinked global challenges.
This document discusses the scales and linkages involved in global change issues. It notes that global change challenges like delivering food and water do not operate independently, but are coupled subsystems within larger Earth systems. It emphasizes the need to understand the spatial and temporal scales and lags of these systems, as well as their interconnections. The document recommends embracing transdisciplinary global change science as a new discipline and incorporating global change education into school curricula in order to address these complex and interlinked global challenges.
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Opening Session - A. Markandya OECD Environment
This document summarizes the key questions and findings around how natural capital and environmental services have contributed to economic growth in the past and are expected to contribute in the future. It discusses several areas of research on this topic, including the environmental Kuznets curve, weak vs strong sustainability, the resource curse hypothesis, and estimates of the economic costs of climate change. While the contribution of natural capital to past growth is unclear due to lack of data, protecting natural capital is seen as important for sustaining long-term economic growth into the future.
Why so many economists got it wrong in the great crisisEdward Hugh
- Mainstream economists failed to predict the financial crisis due to overreliance on consensus views, belief that markets cannot fail, and being mesmerized by economic models.
- The IMF similarly failed due to a similar mindset and training among economists there and a lack of consideration of dissenting views.
- Modern macroeconomics is built upon neoclassical growth models and assumptions of steady state growth, but these assumptions may not be reasonable and the field has become insular. Questioning of these foundations is needed to improve macroeconomic theory.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's presence and build relationships between her and her female audience.
El 80% de tus clientes están respresentados por un buyer persona con patrones comunes. ¿Los conoces? Tu organización debe tener claro quién es su buyer persona y el momento que están preparados para la venta. Todo tiene que estar alineado y en coherencia con la misión y visión de tu organización.
Tim Bergling, better known by his stage name Avicii, is a Swedish electronic musician, DJ, and record producer. Some of his achievements include being ranked in the top 3 of DJ Mag's Top 100 DJs poll from 2011-2013, receiving two Grammy nominations, and becoming the first DJ to headline Radio City Music Hall in New York City in 2012. Avicii actively engages with his fans through social media like Twitter and Facebook, where he posts about upcoming concerts, shares fan photos, and holds contests. He has also released the album True in 2013 and has collaborated with artists such as David Guetta, Lenny Kravitz, and Madonna.
Prezentacija o iskustvu sa stručnog usavršavanja financiranog iz Programa za cjeloživotno učenje. Prezentirana je tema sustavnog vođenja iz pozicije CARNeta.
The document discusses conventions in media and how the author's magazine product both follows and challenges conventions.
It follows conventions such as layout, colors, fonts, cover lines, barcode placement, and teasing quotes and images inside the magazine. However, it challenges conventions by featuring both a designer and model on the same page, rather than just women models, to make it a unique concept.
The target audience is described as females ages 18 to 49 from urban, middle to upper class backgrounds who are interested in street fashion and value appearance. The language and topics are made broadly understandable to fashion lovers while still using some industry terms.
The product engages audiences through attractive colors, themes, and fonts to catch viewers' attention like real media texts. Professional photographs taken with a DSLR also draw in audiences. The magazine would be distributed through an online website and mobile application to introduce it and get early feedback, allowing the creator to research advertisers and audiences. After establishing an audience, physical copies would be sold in stores for Rs. 230, packaged in plastic to encourage purchase rather than browsing in the store.
Instagram, Facebook, and Vine are social media platforms that allow users to share different types of media. Instagram focuses on photo sharing, Facebook enables sharing of photos, music and other content, while Vine specializes in short 6-second video clips. These social networks provide ways for people to communicate and share parts of their lives with others around the world.
This document summarizes a presentation on evolutionary game theory and its implications. It discusses how evolutionary game theory provides an alternative paradigm to the standard economic approach of rational choice and equilibrium analysis. It outlines concepts such as evolutionarily stable strategies and how preferences and behaviors evolve over time through strategic interactions. A key result is that "homo moralis" preferences that balance self-interest and adherence to moral rules like Kant's categorical imperative are evolutionarily stable, while other preference types are unstable. This suggests humans naturally develop a balance between self-interest and morality.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's image and brand while informing fans about her new music, tours, and merchandise.
2014.03.18 - NAEC Seminar_Assessing the vulnerabilities of social institution...OECD_NAEC
This document discusses the vulnerabilities of social institutions like pension systems, health care systems, and unemployment insurance to various risks and shocks. It outlines trends that affect social spending like population aging. Charts show how aging will decrease support ratios and increase pension and health spending. Macroeconomic shocks can also impact unemployment insurance spending. The document recommends policy options to make systems more sustainable and resilient to risks, like increasing retirement ages, cost sharing in health care, and active labor market policies for unemployment insurance.
This document discusses developing a solution called Complio to help small and medium enterprises comply with privacy and data regulations for their ecommerce and cloud businesses. It proposes a freemium business model where a basic privacy policy generator is offered for free to attract customers, with additional compliance tools and services available for a fee. It outlines developing an initial minimum viable product and acquiring customers through content marketing, partnerships, and offering a limited free version to drive adoption of paid upgrades and subscriptions. The goal is to provide DIY compliance tools that are affordable and easy for SMEs to use.
The document discusses the global economic crisis that began in 2007 and its causes and consequences. It identifies the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as the immediate trigger that spread worldwide. This led to a financial crisis as banks and institutions failed, resulting in a credit crunch that impacted the real economy through reduced growth, rising unemployment, and falling consumption and investment. A subsequent European sovereign debt crisis further threatened the global economy from 2009 onward as countries like Ireland, Portugal, and Greece struggled with rising debt levels and faced austerity measures and bailouts. The crisis revealed weaknesses in the Eurozone system and spurred various emergency measures, though a long-term solution of a European fiscal union is still being worked toward.
012_20160726_Sustainable energy production and utilizationsenicsummerschool
This document discusses sustainable energy production and utilization. It begins with an overview of the exponential speed of technological development and its implications. Examples are given of how technologies like fax machines, walkmans, and desktop PCs have been developed and replaced within a single lifetime. Exponential growth is also discussed through examples like bacteria population growth and internet growth. The document examines challenges with current fossil fuel utilization like supply limitations and environmental impacts. It argues this provides motivation for sustainable energy utilization.
The document discusses the formation and goals of the Post-Crash Economics Society at the University of Manchester. The society was formed to advocate for pluralism and alternative approaches in economics education after mainstream economists failed to predict the financial crisis. It critiques how mainstream economics has become dominated by a single paradigm and marginalized dissenting views. The society aims to campaign for curriculum reform and bring discussions of alternative approaches like Post-Keynesianism and Marxism into economics education. However, the university rejected a new course on financial crises proposed by a lecturer involved in the society.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report on climate change. It discusses the IPCC's role in assessing scientific literature on climate change and outlines dangerous impacts of increased greenhouse gases. The report projects that average global temperatures will rise 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius by 2100 even with emission reductions and outlines major concerns like sea level rise, water stress, and effects on the Arctic. It calls for urgent global action on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Modern Philosophy and Climate Change.pptxAdam Briggle
Part 1 of a 2 part series on the root causes of climate change. This part introduces the question and then develops a problem-oriented way to understand climate change.
This document discusses complex systems approaches to sustainability and environmental problems. It defines key concepts like sustainability, complexity, emergence and feedback. It notes that many environmental issues arise from the emergent behaviors of large numbers of people acting individually in unsustainable ways. Experts interviewed discuss how addressing these problems requires considering socio-technical systems and multiple interconnected scales. They note a lack of feedback between individual actions and their global impacts. Natural systems exhibit complexity through interconnectedness and feedback loops, while human systems are often oversimplified.
22. TCI Climate of the Nation Flagship Report 2012Richard Plumpton
This document summarizes the findings of a report on Australian attitudes toward climate change in 2012. It was conducted through focus groups and surveys between April and May 2012, a time of highly politicized debate around climate change policies in Australia. The research found that Australians were uncertain about the science of climate change, unconvinced by carbon pricing solutions due to fears over rising costs of living, and had lost confidence in experts and governments on the issue. However, attitudes remained fluid and could still be influenced on both the reality and solutions regarding climate change.
This document discusses the scales and linkages involved in global change issues. It notes that global change challenges like delivering food and water do not operate independently, but are coupled subsystems within larger Earth systems. It emphasizes the need to understand the spatial and temporal scales and lags between systems, as well as their interconnections. The document recommends embracing transdisciplinary global change science as a new discipline and incorporating global change education into school curricula in order to address these complex and interlinked global challenges.
This document discusses the scales and linkages involved in global change issues. It notes that global change challenges like delivering food and water do not operate independently, but are coupled subsystems within larger Earth systems. It emphasizes the need to understand the spatial and temporal scales and lags of these systems, as well as their interconnections. The document recommends embracing transdisciplinary global change science as a new discipline and incorporating global change education into school curricula in order to address these complex and interlinked global challenges.
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Opening Session - A. Markandya OECD Environment
This document summarizes the key questions and findings around how natural capital and environmental services have contributed to economic growth in the past and are expected to contribute in the future. It discusses several areas of research on this topic, including the environmental Kuznets curve, weak vs strong sustainability, the resource curse hypothesis, and estimates of the economic costs of climate change. While the contribution of natural capital to past growth is unclear due to lack of data, protecting natural capital is seen as important for sustaining long-term economic growth into the future.
Why so many economists got it wrong in the great crisisEdward Hugh
- Mainstream economists failed to predict the financial crisis due to overreliance on consensus views, belief that markets cannot fail, and being mesmerized by economic models.
- The IMF similarly failed due to a similar mindset and training among economists there and a lack of consideration of dissenting views.
- Modern macroeconomics is built upon neoclassical growth models and assumptions of steady state growth, but these assumptions may not be reasonable and the field has become insular. Questioning of these foundations is needed to improve macroeconomic theory.
Este es un paper que se refiere a la relación entre economía y cambio clímatico.
Actividad: Reconozca y resuma 5 Argumentos que expone el paper y redactelos en no más de 2000 caracteres. La respuesta DEBE ser en inglés. (Es el texto en inglés poh!)
Este documento es un resumen del informe Stern, quien el 2006 fue el primer economista en analizar los efectos del Cambio Climatico, a orden del Reino Unido.
Actividad: Resuma en 500 palabras la principal conclusión de este informe
Online Training Resource for Climate Adaptation: Adaptation Strategies - Han...Deborah Davies
Handling the Issue of Uncertainty
This module provides a more in depth look at the issues of uncertainty and covers the following:
How uncertainties affect vulnerability assessments
The categories of uncertainty?
How to conduct local uncertainty analysis
The document discusses a workshop on climate change and drowning hosted by the International Life Saving Federation. It acknowledges debate around climate change but focuses on preparing for potential impacts. It lists background materials from the UN's climate change report and outlines a process to go through the report, list relevant issues for lifesaving and drowning prevention, prioritize them, advise on awareness and action, and determine next steps.
Newcastle upon Tyne has been chosen as one of two pilots in England to develop a new 'green map' of action by local communities to tackle climate change. The map will be an online internet resource that will help anyone interested find out what is going on in their area and how they can get involved.
The project has been funded by the Green Alliance and is being led by Mapping for Change (www.mappingforchane.org.uk) in partnership with Newcastle Council for Voluntary Services
The map will also help show national organisations just how m,uch is going on at the local level in areas such as North Dorset, and the aim is this will help make more funding and support available.
The document summarizes a paper that models the global financial crisis using an intertemporal general equilibrium model. It explores the impacts of shocks to global housing markets and increases in risk premiums for firms, households, and international investors. The model has six production sectors and models trade between 15 major economies. The paper shows that the observed financial market shocks can generate the severe contraction in global trade and production seen in 2009. It finds that durable and non-durable goods trade is differentially impacted, explaining differences between GDP and trade declines across countries. The future path depends on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
Highlight of the IPCC Work and Process and Findings from the IPCC Special Rep...ipcc-media
1. The IPCC report summarizes the key findings from the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C regarding the impacts of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5°C compared to 2°C.
2. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C could reduce the number of people affected by climate change impacts and reduce risks to biodiversity, food security, and economic growth.
3. Urgent and unprecedented global actions are needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, including substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and carbon removal from the atmosphere. Every bit of additional warming will raise the risk of severe consequences.
Similar to 2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 1_Alan KIRMAN (20)
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Stefano ScarpettaOECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a meeting that discussed promoting inclusive growth through income, jobs, and health. It finds:
1) Higher income inequality lowers economic growth, while redistribution has not lowered growth.
2) Inequality undermines education opportunities for the poor by restricting access to credit.
3) Job quality, including earnings, security, and work environment, is important for well-being and economic performance beyond just employment levels.
4) Health and socioeconomic factors have a two-way relationship where socioeconomic disadvantages lead to health differences, and poor health drives inequality.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Lamia Kamal-ChaouiOECD_NAEC
This document summarizes the work of the OECD's Inclusive Growth Initiative. It established a multidimensional framework to measure inclusive growth that accounts for income as well as non-income factors like employment and health. Between 2012-2014, the initiative delivered reports applying this framework and identifying policy areas that can boost both growth and inclusiveness. Going forward, it will refine the methodology, integrate inclusive growth analysis across policy sectors, and conduct national and regional case studies to strengthen the evidence base and mainstream inclusive growth policymaking.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_DSG TamakiOECD_NAEC
The OECD, IEA, ITF, and NEA have been tasked with examining how to better align policies across different areas to support a successful transition to sustainable low-carbon economies. This will include looking at economic, fiscal, financial, competition, employment and other policies. A key challenge is that existing policy frameworks were developed for fossil fuel-based economies. The report to Ministers in 2015 will provide examples of how to reform policies in areas like electricity markets, mobility incentives, land use, long-term investment, taxation, innovation, and international trade to support low-carbon transitions. The agencies will seek input on policy alignment issues and solutions through committee reviews, a seminar, and the NAEC Group meeting before reporting
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Shardul agrawalaOECD_NAEC
1) The document discusses new approaches to addressing environmental challenges. It focuses on three projects examining the costs of policy inaction on issues like climate change, the impact of tighter environmental policies on productivity, and the economic and social effects of environmental reforms.
2) It finds that the costs of inaction on climate change are substantial, with global damages estimated to reach 5-9% of GDP by 2100 under a business as usual scenario. Tighter environmental policies also do not necessarily harm productivity when properly designed.
3) The document advocates assessing reforms using macroeconomic models and microsimulation to evaluate their efficiency, environmental effectiveness, and distributional consequences like the impact of fossil fuel subsidy phase outs on household income.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-WignallOECD_NAEC
The document discusses several issues related to finance and the economy. It notes that financial deregulation and innovation led to the 2008 liquidity crisis due to complex derivatives and relationships between counterparties. Since then, derivatives have shifted from banks to shadow banks. There has also been an emerging market bubble in corporate credit as investors seek yield. The document raises concerns about liquidity risks if interest rates rise or demand slows, given the shift away from banks as liquidity providers. It argues that new approaches are needed to encourage long-term, sustainable investment by non-banks.
1) The ECB Governor found conventional economic models provided limited help during the financial crisis as they failed to predict or explain what was happening.
2) He welcomed inspiration from other disciplines like physics, engineering, psychology and biology to develop new tools to improve the robustness of their framework.
3) A multi-disciplinary group at UCL is developing approaches using narratives and emotions extracted from big data sources like news to provide early warnings and better understand economic uncertainties.
The document discusses using numbers and narratives to explore evolutionary potential. It addresses using quantified self data from things like fitness trackers to go beyond conventional text analysis. It also discusses the need for proper sampling, transparency in algorithms, and shifting from linear to nonlinear views of policy and action. The document also examines monitoring networks of micro-narratives, detecting patterns in outcomes, and managing for serendipity.
The document discusses the use of narratives and numbers in climate change science and policymaking. It notes that while climate models provide quantitative projections, there is still significant uncertainty. Narratives are therefore also used to describe potential climate futures in a qualitative way. The "2 degree Celsius" narrative in particular aims to motivate climate action by framing 2C as the maximum safe level of warming. However, it emerged indirectly and its cost-benefit analysis is still debated. The document argues that to best inform policymaking, climate projections need to better integrate narratives with socioeconomic factors to assess impacts across scales and sectors. Foresight approaches should combine top-down and bottom-up methods to explore uncertain long-term issues like climate change.
This document summarizes Shell's process for developing qualitative scenarios to model energy demand and futures. It discusses how Shell uses scenarios to test strategies, identify opportunities and threats, and make risky decisions more transparent. Scenarios are developed through analyzing interactions between politics, environment, technology, society and economics. They must be plausible, internally consistent, challenging and have consequences. Shell's scenario methodology includes understanding key uncertainties and developing quantitative models to underpin qualitative storylines about different potential futures.
This document discusses how ancient Greeks navigated uncertainty through oracles and narratives. It explores how oracles did not make predictions, but offered alternative stories that allowed people to create meaning and motivation. By generating potential stories for the future, oracles helped ancient Greeks navigate risk and make decisions. The document presents examples of oracle sites in Greece, the types of questions Greeks asked oracles, and images that help illustrate oracle practices.
The document discusses trends in currency-based measures taken by countries between 2005-2013. It finds that:
1) Emerging market economies had more currency-based measures in place in 2005, with limits on bank's net foreign exchange positions being most common.
2) From 2005-2013, countries eased currency-based measures leading up to the financial crisis, while tightening them more after 2008. Tightening focused on restricting foreign currency inflows and outflows through banks.
3) A few OECD countries actively increased restrictions over the period, while non-OECD economies liberalized significantly through adjustments to existing measures.
This document summarizes a seminar discussing the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. It finds that while some pro-growth reforms can increase instability at the individual level, deeper reforms may boost growth without increasing volatility. Reforms like reducing employment protections and unemployment benefits can increase worker reallocation and earnings volatility, while well-designed social programs and competitive markets can attenuate these impacts. Policy settings are linked to a country's distance from the growth-volatility frontier, showing the importance of balancing economic goals.
This document summarizes a study on the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. The study finds that policies promoting growth, such as reducing employment protection and product market regulation, can increase microeconomic instability for firms, workers, and households. However, deeper reforms may boost growth without raising instability. The analysis also shows that tax-benefit systems play a key role in attenuating the impact of individual income volatility on overall household income changes. While some pro-growth reforms have trade-offs with stability and inequality, well-designed policies, like expanding active labor market programs, can promote both growth and stability.
This document summarizes a presentation given at an OECD seminar on skills distribution, wage inequality, and social inequality. The presentation analyzed data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills to examine the relationship between the distribution of numeracy skills across countries and wage inequality. It found that countries with a more unequal distribution of numeracy skills, such as the US and France, tended to have higher wage inequality. Differences in how skills and education are rewarded in the labor market, rather than differences in average skill levels, accounted for 30-90% of the variation in wage inequality between countries.
2014.10.10 - NAEC Seminar_Identifying Social and Emotional SkillsOECD_NAEC
The document discusses the role of social and emotional skills in human capital development and social progress. It argues that developing social and emotional skills in children is an important yet underutilized means of addressing socio-economic challenges. Evidence shows that social and emotional skills can significantly impact education, employment, health and other outcomes. The OECD can help by developing tools to reliably measure these skills and conducting policy analysis to inform national strategies.
This document outlines New Zealand's approach to national security which focuses on building resilience through a systems approach. It emphasizes managing risks, reducing vulnerabilities, and building resilience within the same framework. Recent crises in New Zealand like earthquakes and industrial accidents highlighted the importance of this approach and lessons around strengthening infrastructure, community support, and adaptive emergency management.
This document discusses how to make wise decisions in an uncertain global environment prone to surprises and shocks. It recommends building resilience by identifying sources of strength, conducting stress tests of policies, and choosing options that increase diversity, adaptability, decentralization, and connections while avoiding long-term commitments or reliance on single predictions. An example portfolio of resilience-building measures for Finland is provided, ranging from investment in trade partnerships to innovation for difficult economic periods. The goal is to develop a subset of actions that increase the ability to succeed across a variety of potential situations.
Governments face novel risks from increased shock events like disasters and crises in complex interconnected systems. Boosting resilience is important to minimize welfare losses. Resilience requires anticipating shocks, adapting, and learning. Major shocks can cause economic losses exceeding 20% of GDP with impacts propagating across sectors and borders. The OECD recommends a holistic risk governance approach integrating prevention, crisis management, and continual improvement to strengthen resilience at all levels.
2014.09.22 - NAEC Seminar_Origins of the crisisOECD_NAEC
The document analyzes the determinants of the financial crisis, identifying three key factors: 1) Low interest rates increased the supply of credit. 2) Rising income inequality and growth of institutional investors increased demand for mortgages and securitized bonds. 3) The rise of shadow banking and enabling factors allowed risks to accumulate in the financial system.
2014_09_19_NAEC Seminar_How good is your jobOECD_NAEC
The document discusses new approaches to measuring and assessing job quality. It proposes a framework that defines three key dimensions of job quality - earnings quality, labor market security, and quality of the working environment. It presents indicators to measure each dimension and compares job quality outcomes across OECD countries and socioeconomic groups. The framework aims to allow a more comprehensive assessment of labor market performance and the role of policies in determining job quality outcomes. Future work will expand the analysis to more countries and take a more dynamic perspective on career prospects.
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
How to Identify the Best Crypto to Buy Now in 2024.pdfKezex (KZX)
To identify the best crypto to buy in 2024, analyze market trends, assess the project's fundamentals, review the development team and community, monitor adoption rates, and evaluate risk tolerance. Stay updated with news, regulatory changes, and expert opinions to make informed decisions.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
3. Complex
collapse
• The
Western
Antarc;c
Ice
Sheet
is
now
subsiding
into
the
sea
more
rapidly
than
previously.
Furthermore,
this
process
is
now
irreversible,
according
to
two
ar;cles
in
Science
(Ian
Joughin
et
al.
2014)
and
Geophysical
Research
LeTers
(Rignot
et
al.
2014).
This
will
lead
to
a
«
short
term
»
rise
in
sea
level
of
over
one
metre
and
a
longer
term
rise
of
much
greater
magnitude.
• Anthropogenic
causes
are
an
important
part
of
the
explana;on
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
4. Complex
collapse
2
• Why
is
this
of
interest
to
economists?
• First,
because
it
is
claimed
that
human
behaviour
has
been,
in
part,
responsible
for
the
changes
that
have
led
to
the
collapse
(already
forecast
by
John
Mercer
Nature
(1978))
• Secondly,
because
the
nature
of
the
causality
is
not
as
simple
as
might
be
thought.
• The
obvious
argument
is
that
rising
air
temperatures
caused
by
increasing
CO2
emissions
have
increased
sea
temperatures
and
that
this
has
caused
the
mel;ng.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
5. Complex
collapse
3
• In
fact
the
mechanism
is
more
indirect.
Stronger
winds
have
pushed
warmer
water
which
rises
naturally
towards
the
Antarc;c
region.
These
are
caused,
it
is
claimed,
by
global
warming.
• This
coupled
with
the
increased
Ozone
hole,
due
in
part
to
the
emission
of
aerosol
gases
has
led
to
the
change
in
the
ice
sheet’s
stability.
• «
There
is
no
stabilising
mechanism
»
as
one
of
the
authors
said.
• Changing
the
things
which
we
can
control
will
not
help
now
to
prevent
the
phenomenon
but
could
slow
it.
• The
system
has
self
organised
into
an
unstable
state.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
6. Lessons
for
economists
• We
also
are
faced
with
a
complex
adap;ve
system
over
which
we
have
very
limited
control.
• Some;mes
it
is
not
always
possible
to
reverse
the
consequences
of
well-‐inten;oned
but
erroneous
measures.
• The
way
in
which
the
system
self
organises
creates
its
own
dynamics
and
incen;ves.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
7. Economists
and
Climatologists
• The
results
men;oned
previously
are,
in
one
paper,
the
result
of
data
analysis
not
of
computer
models
• Climatologists
have
usually
been
cri;cised
for
their
models
not
for
their
data
analysis
• Economists
have
rejected
cri;cism
of
their
models
usually
with
the
argument
that
those
who
proffer
the
cri;cism
do
not
understand
the
mathema;cal
analysis.
• Many
economists
have
expressed
an
unwavering
faith
in
our
models
even
acer
the
crisis.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
8. Two
basic
approaches
The
standard
approach
• Our
models
must
be
built
on
sound
microfounda;ons
• Lucas,
one
should
only
make
assump;ons
about
individual
characteris;cs
• Individuals
should
sa;sfy
economists’
axioms
of
ra;onality
• They
should
op;mise
in
isola;on
• They
undertand
the
economy
they
func;on
in.
• Aggregate
behaviour
is
like
that
of
a
ra;onal
«
representa;ve
agent
»
The
economy
as
a
complex
system
• Individuals
follow
simple
rules
• They
adapt
to
their
environment.
• They
are
not
irra;onal
and
do
not
act
against
their
own
interest
• They
have
limited
and
largely
local
informa;on
• Aggregate
behaviour
emerges
from
the
interac;on
between
individuals.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
9. Confidence
in
our
theory
The
“central
problem
of
depression-‐preven;on
has
been
solved,”
,
Robert
Lucas
2003
presiden;al
address
to
the
American
Economic
Associa;on.
In
2004,
Ben
Bernanke,
chairman
of
the
Federal
Reserve
Board,
celebrated
the
«
Great
Modera;on
»
in
economic
performance
over
the
previous
two
decades,
which
he
aTributed
in
part
to
improved
economic
policy
making.
Our
models
func;oned
well
during
this
period
but
would
not
any
model
have
done
so?
We
need
models
to
help
us
understand
and
deal
with
crises
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
10. Crises
as
Rare
Events
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons
(2008,
for
example),
the
global
“invisible
hand”
has
created
rela;vely
stable
exchange
rates,
interest
rates,
prices
and
wage
rates.”
• Alan
Greenspan,
Former
Chairman
of
the
Federal
Reserve
Bank
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
11. Crises
as
Rare
Events
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons
(2008,
for
example),
the
global
“invisible
hand”
has
created
rela;vely
stable
exchange
rates,
interest
rates,
prices
and
wage
rates.”
• Alan
Greenspan,
Former
Chairman
of
the
Federal
Reserve
Bank
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons,
Germany
remained
largely
at
peace
with
its
neighbours
during
the
20th
century.”
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
12. Crises
as
Rare
Events
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons
(2008,
for
example),
the
global
“invisible
hand”
has
created
rela;vely
stable
exchange
rates,
interest
rates,
prices
and
wage
rates.”
• Alan
Greenspan,
Former
Chairman
of
the
Federal
Reserve
Bank
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons,
Germany
remained
largely
at
peace
with
its
neighbours
during
the
20th
century.”
• “With
notably
rare
excep;ons,
Alan
Greenspan
has
been
right
about
everything.”
• Comments
on
the
blog
Crooked
Timber
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
14. The
view
of
those
responsible
in
the
U.K
• «
But
there
is
also
a
strong
belief,
which
I
share,
that
bad
or
rather
over-‐simplis;c
and
overconfident
economics
helped
create
the
crisis.
There
was
a
dominant
conven;onal
wisdom
that
markets
were
always
ra;onal
and
self-‐equilibra;ng,
that
market
comple;on
by
itself
could
ensure
economic
efficiency
and
stability,
and
that
financial
innova;on
and
increased
trading
ac;vity
were
therefore
axioma;cally
beneficial.
»
Adair
Turner,
Head
of
the
U.K.
Financial
Services
Authority
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
15. So
in
summary
your
majesty,
the
failure
to
foresee
the
;ming,
extent
and
severity
of
the
crisis
…was
principally
the
failure
of
the
collec;ve
imagina;on
of
many
bright
people
to
understand
the
risks
to
the
systems
as
a
whole.
Reply
to
the
queen
by
the
BriBsh
Academy
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
17. Bob
Shiller
• Of
course,
the
problem
with
economics
is
that
there
are
ocen
as
many
interpreta;ons
of
any
crisis
as
there
are
economists.
An
economy
is
a
remarkably
complex
structure,
and
fathoming
it
depends
on
understanding
its
laws,
regula;ons,
business
prac;ces
and
customs,
and
balance
sheets,
among
many
other
details.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
18. Bob
Shiller
• Yet
it
is
likely
that
one
day
we
will
know
much
more
about
how
economies
work
–
or
fail
to
work
–
by
understanding
beTer
the
physical
structures
that
underlie
brain
func;oning.
Those
structures
–
networks
of
neurons
that
communicate
with
each
other
via
axons
and
dendrites
–
underlie
the
familiar
analogy
of
the
brain
to
a
computer
–
networks
of
transistors
that
communicate
with
each
other
via
electric
wires.
The
economy
is
the
next
analogy:
a
network
of
people
who
communicate
with
each
other
via
electronic
and
other
connec;ons.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
19. Bob
Shiller
The
brain,
the
computer,
and
the
economy:
all
three
are
devices
whose
purpose
is
to
solve
fundamental
informa;on
problems
in
coordina;ng
the
ac;vi;es
of
individual
units
–
the
neurons,
the
transistors,
or
individual
people.
As
we
improve
our
understanding
of
the
problems
that
any
one
of
these
devices
solves
–
and
how
it
overcomes
obstacles
in
doing
so
–
we
learn
something
valuable
about
all
three.
hTp://www.project-‐syndicate.org/commentary/the-‐
neuroeconomics-‐revolu;on#01DugqtByVO8W50F.99
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
20. Mo;va;on
• There
has
been
a
growing
dissa;sfac;on
with
exis;ng
models
of
the
economy
• Many
cri;cisms
have
come
from
those
who
have
to
make
policy
• They
blame
the
unsa;sfactory
nature
of
the
models
which
have
come
to
be
viewed,
wrongly,
as
an
increasingly
sophis;cated
vision
of
how
the
economy
works.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
21. Mo;va;on
• My
basic
claim
is
that
the
basic
problem
lies
with
the
passage
from
the
microeconomic
analysis
which
we
purvey,
to
the
aggregate
behaviour
of
the
economy.
• Aggregate
behaviour
is
not
the
sum
of
nor
the
average
of
individual’s
behaviour.
• As
is
widely
recognised
in
other
disciplines
such
as
physics,
biology
and
sociology
the
behaviour
of
a
complex
system
of
interac;ng
agents
is
intrinsically
different
from
that
of
its
individual
components.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
22. Mo;va;on
• What
we
have
to
be
able
to
reproduce
is
the
sudden,
endogenous
changes
that
occur
at
the
aggregate
level
without
having
recourse
to
exogenous
shocks.
• Our
models
of
ra;onal
individuals
do
not
allow
us
to
achieve
this.
• Op;misa;on
at
both
the
individual
and
collec;ve
level
is
illusory,
what
should
concern
us
is
not
so
much
efficiency
but
rather
coordina;on.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
23. Economists
and
Models
“And
the
first
thing
that
came
to
mind
was
something
that
people
said
many
years
ago
and
then
stopped
saying
it:
The
euro
is
like
a
bumblebee.
This
is
a
mystery
of
nature
because
it
shouldn’t
fly
but
instead
it
does.
So
the
euro
was
a
bumblebee
that
flew
very
well
for
several
years.
And
now
–
and
I
think
people
ask
“how
come?”
–
probably
there
was
something
in
the
atmosphere,
in
the
air,
that
made
the
bumblebee
fly.
Now
something
must
have
changed
in
the
air,
and
we
know
what
acer
the
financial
crisis.
The
bumblebee
would
have
to
graduate
to
a
real
bee.
And
that’s
what
it’s
doing”.
Speech
by
Mario
Draghi,
President
of
the
European
Central
Bank
at
the
Global
Investment
Conference
in
London
26
July
2012
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
25. Economists
and
Models
• We
are
so
wedded
to
our
models
that
when
they
do
not
correspond
to
empirical
reality,
we
wonder
what
the
problem
with
the
evidence
is
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
26. The
Ex
Governor
of
the
European
Central
Bank
• When
the
crisis
came,
the
serious
limita;ons
of
exis;ng
economic
and
financial
models
immediately
became
apparent.
Arbitrage
broke
down
in
many
market
segments,
as
markets
froze
and
market
par;cipants
were
gripped
by
panic.
Macro
models
failed
to
predict
the
crisis
and
seemed
incapable
of
explaining
what
was
happening
to
the
economy
in
a
convincing
manner.
As
a
policy-‐maker
during
the
crisis,
I
found
the
available
models
of
limited
help.
In
fact,
I
would
go
further:
in
the
face
of
the
crisis,
we
felt
abandoned
by
conven;onal
tools.
In
the
absence
of
clear
guidance
from
exis;ng
analy;cal
frameworks,
policy-‐makers
had
to
place
par;cular
reliance
on
our
experience.
Judgement
and
experience
inevitably
played
a
key
role.
Trichet
(2010)
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
27. Economists’
Recommenda;ons
• Undertake
structural
reforms
(a.k.a
reduce
unit
wage
costs
and
make
labour
market
more
flexible)
• All
of
this
is
on
the
basis
of
what
theory?
• We
are
faced
with
a
combina;on
of
policy
measures
based
on
ideology
rather
than
on
analysis
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
29. Alterna;ves
• Macro
modellers
have
added
imperfec;ons
and
fric;ons
to
their
models
to
beTer
account
for
observed
data
but
these
are
as
ad
hoc
as
the
alterna;ves
they
cri;cise.
• Alterna;ves
have
been
proposed
from
ABM
to
more
Behaviourally
oriented
models,
to
sta;s;cal
physical
models,
to
more
inclusion
of
networks.
None
of
these
is
a
complete
and
comprehensive
answer
but
almost
any
would
seem
to
be
preferable
to
the
current
models.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
30. Analysis?
• Two
things
have
awakened
public
scep;cism
about
the
value
of
economists’
analysis
• The
IMF’s
mistake
on
the
fiscal
mul;plier
• The
famous
Reinhart
Rogoff
90%
threshold
• Both
mistakes
have
been
used
to
jus;fy
austerity
measures.
• We
should
use
some
of
the
army
of
economists
employed
by
the
central
banks,
the
EU
and
the
OECD
for
example
to
check
on
the
theore;cal
validity
or
the
empirical
accuracy
of
the
analysis
• Our
basic
problem
is
that
our
recommenda;ons
are
s;ll
predicated
on
the
idea
that
the
current
economic
system
is
s;ll
essen;ally
self-‐
organising
and
achieves
efficiency
with
the
minimum
of
interference.
• We
need
models
which
explicitly
produce
endogenous
crises
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
32. Income
and
Wealth
Distribu;on
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
33. Income
v
Wealth
Inequality
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
34. What
people
want
and
think
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
35. What
we
should
do
• We
should
use
surveys
and
«
Big
Data
»
to
find
out
what
people
think
rather
than
insist
on
«
ra;onal
expecta;ons
»
• Compare
the
facts
and
opinions
about
immigra;on.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
36. • «
A
very
natural
next
step
for
economics
is
to
maintain
expecta;ons
in
the
strategic
posi;on
they
have
come
to
occupy,
but
to
build
an
empirically
validated
theory
of
how
aTen;on
is
in
fact
directed
within
a
social
system,
and
how
expecta;ons
are,
in
fact,
formed.
Taking
that
next
step,
requires
that
empirical
work
in
economics
take
a
new
direc;on,
the
direc;on
of
micro-‐level
inves;ga;on
proposed
by
Behavioralism.
»
• Herb
Simon
(1984)
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
37. Our
basic
assump;ons:
Trichet
again
•
First,
we
have
to
think
about
how
to
characterise
the
homo
economicus
at
the
heart
of
any
model.
The
atomis;c,
op;mising
agents
underlying
exis;ng
models
do
not
capture
behaviour
during
a
crisis
period.
We
need
to
deal
beTer
with
heterogeneity
across
agents
and
the
interac;on
among
those
heterogeneous
agents.
We
need
to
entertain
alterna;ve
mo;va;ons
for
economic
choices.
Behavioural
economics
draws
on
psychology
to
explain
decisions
made
in
crisis
circumstances.
Agent-‐based
modelling
dispenses
with
the
op;misa;on
assump;on
and
allows
for
more
complex
interac;ons
between
agents.
Such
approaches
are
worthy
of
our
aTen;on.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
38. Conven;onal
Recommenda;ons
• What
have
been
the
recommenda;ons
to
get
out
of
the
crisis?
• Austerity
• We
must
reduce
our
debts
and
deficits
• You
know
the
numbers
but
Europe
has
to
get
back
to
3%
• A
meaningless
number.
Why
not Π or
e???
• Wri;ng
numbers
into
trea;es
does
not
make
sense.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
39. The
perversity
of
austerity
• Austerity
diminishes
growth
• But
if
growth
slows
the
debt
becomes
even
more
important
• Why
worry
about
the
debt?
• Because
the
markets
will
not
lend
to
countries
with
high
debt.
• France
has
never
borrowed
at
such
low
rates.
• Markets
self
organise
but
when
they
do
so
we
only
look
at
them
if
they
comfort
our
beliefs.
• Why
not
look
at
the
facts
rather
than
speculate
on
the
basis
of
our
theories
and
our
ideology?
• There
is
some
no;on
of
morality
here
which
is
inappropriate.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
40. How
should
we
stabilise
the
system?
• The
view
that
we
can
set
up
a
new
more
sophis;cated
set
of
rules
and
then
everything
will
be
under
control
is
illusory.
• It
is
based
on
the
idea
that
there
is
a
«
correct
»
model
and
that,
and
if
only
we
can
find
it
we
can
establish
the
right
rules
and
leave
markets
to
sort
things
out.
• But,
in
reality
there
is
no
reason
to
believe
that
self
organisa;on
is
a
stable
process
and
furthermore
the
economy
is
constantly
evolving
and
and
therefore
so
must
the
rules.
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014
41. Overall
Conclusions
• We
have
to
accept
that
unlike
in
our
models,
in
markets,
informa;on
is
dispersed
across
individuals
and
is
not
transmiTed
through
some
central
signals
• How
things
come
to
be
coordinated
is
what
we
need
to
explain
• We
should
treat
macro
phenomena
as
emerging
from
the
intricate
interac;ons
between
individuals.
• We
will
never
become
a
“science”
in
the
sense
that
Walras
wanted.
• We
have
to
spend
more
;me
observing
the
real
evolu;on
of
the
economy
and
less
;me”improving”
our
exis;ng
models.
• Policy
should
be
concentrated
on
influencing
the
evolu;on
of
the
economy
not
on
determining
it
presenta;on
at
the
ECLA
OECD
workshop
May
2014