Making globalisation work for all: Policy responses and the role of multilate...OECD Berlin Centre
Präsentation des OECD-Generalsekretärs Angel Gurría anlässlich des Treffens der Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel mit den Leiterinnen und Leitern der Internationalen Organisationen in Berlin, 12. Juni 2018
Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OEC...OECD CFE
Presentation by Alexander LEMBCKE, Economist, Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, OECD at the OECD session on "Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OECD perspective", 3 June 2018, Trento, Italy
More information https://oe.cd/festival
Evaluating Benefits and Costs of Globalisationtutor2u
This is a streamed version of a colour coded answer to a past exam question on the economics of globalisation. Each colour in the answer refers to a specific exam skill - knowledge, application, analysis and evaluation. I hope this approach might be interesting to students who want to configure their answer to get high marks in the A level exam. The crucial point is that contextual examples can make a huge different to the quality of your answer.
Making globalisation work for all: Policy responses and the role of multilate...OECD Berlin Centre
Präsentation des OECD-Generalsekretärs Angel Gurría anlässlich des Treffens der Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel mit den Leiterinnen und Leitern der Internationalen Organisationen in Berlin, 12. Juni 2018
Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OEC...OECD CFE
Presentation by Alexander LEMBCKE, Economist, Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, OECD at the OECD session on "Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OECD perspective", 3 June 2018, Trento, Italy
More information https://oe.cd/festival
Evaluating Benefits and Costs of Globalisationtutor2u
This is a streamed version of a colour coded answer to a past exam question on the economics of globalisation. Each colour in the answer refers to a specific exam skill - knowledge, application, analysis and evaluation. I hope this approach might be interesting to students who want to configure their answer to get high marks in the A level exam. The crucial point is that contextual examples can make a huge different to the quality of your answer.
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised worldOECDregions
The launch event for the OECD report Productivity and Jobs in a Globalised World: (How) Can All Regions Benefit? was hosted by the European Committee of the Regions and the European Commission’s Directorate‑General for Regional and Urban Policy. The official launch and press briefing took place in the morning, followed by an in‑depth presentation of the report in the afternoon. The World Bank discussed the report and presented findings from the World Bank report Rethinking Lagging Regions in the EU: evidence-based principles for future Cohesion Policy.
http://www.oecd.org/publications/productivity-and-jobs-in-a-globalised-world-9789264293137-en.htm
OECD - Fiscal Network Work Programme (Item5)OECDtax
Presentation delivered during the 13th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network on Fiscal Relations Across Levels of Government, 23-24 November 2017, Paris, France.
Impact of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) post Covid situation - Phdassist...PhD Assistance
Small and medium businesses (SMEs) in the UK seemed to be doing well in 2020. Britain had a majority Government in the UK. We have witnessed some positive effects of the Brexit as business confidence started to move up. However, after Covid-19's growth, Economy started to collapse, production chains stalled or disrupted, and company revenues declined or in many cases entirely stopped.
PhD Assistance is an Academic The Best Dissertation Writing Service & Consulting Support Company established in 2001. specialiWeze in providing PhD Assignments, PhD Dissertation Writing Help , Statistical Analyses, and Programming Services to students in the USA, UK, Canada, UAE, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and many more.
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Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OEC...OECD CFE
Presentation by Lewis Dijkstra, Head of the Economic Analysis Sector, DG for Regional and Urban Policy at the OECD session on "Regional productivity catching up: The role of the EU cohesion policies and the OECD perspective", 3 June 2018, Trento, Italy
More info https://oe.cd/festival
El 80% de tus clientes están respresentados por un buyer persona con patrones comunes. ¿Los conoces? Tu organización debe tener claro quién es su buyer persona y el momento que están preparados para la venta. Todo tiene que estar alineado y en coherencia con la misión y visión de tu organización.
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised worldOECDregions
The launch event for the OECD report Productivity and Jobs in a Globalised World: (How) Can All Regions Benefit? was hosted by the European Committee of the Regions and the European Commission’s Directorate‑General for Regional and Urban Policy. The official launch and press briefing took place in the morning, followed by an in‑depth presentation of the report in the afternoon. The World Bank discussed the report and presented findings from the World Bank report Rethinking Lagging Regions in the EU: evidence-based principles for future Cohesion Policy.
http://www.oecd.org/publications/productivity-and-jobs-in-a-globalised-world-9789264293137-en.htm
OECD - Fiscal Network Work Programme (Item5)OECDtax
Presentation delivered during the 13th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network on Fiscal Relations Across Levels of Government, 23-24 November 2017, Paris, France.
Impact of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) post Covid situation - Phdassist...PhD Assistance
Small and medium businesses (SMEs) in the UK seemed to be doing well in 2020. Britain had a majority Government in the UK. We have witnessed some positive effects of the Brexit as business confidence started to move up. However, after Covid-19's growth, Economy started to collapse, production chains stalled or disrupted, and company revenues declined or in many cases entirely stopped.
PhD Assistance is an Academic The Best Dissertation Writing Service & Consulting Support Company established in 2001. specialiWeze in providing PhD Assignments, PhD Dissertation Writing Help , Statistical Analyses, and Programming Services to students in the USA, UK, Canada, UAE, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and many more.
Website Visit:https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/
Contact Us:
UK NO: +44-1143520021
India No: +91-8754446690
Email: info@phdassistance.com
Regional productivity catching up: the role of EU cohesion policy and the OEC...OECD CFE
Presentation by Lewis Dijkstra, Head of the Economic Analysis Sector, DG for Regional and Urban Policy at the OECD session on "Regional productivity catching up: The role of the EU cohesion policies and the OECD perspective", 3 June 2018, Trento, Italy
More info https://oe.cd/festival
El 80% de tus clientes están respresentados por un buyer persona con patrones comunes. ¿Los conoces? Tu organización debe tener claro quién es su buyer persona y el momento que están preparados para la venta. Todo tiene que estar alineado y en coherencia con la misión y visión de tu organización.
Prezentacija o iskustvu sa stručnog usavršavanja financiranog iz Programa za cjeloživotno učenje. Prezentirana je tema sustavnog vođenja iz pozicije CARNeta.
Towards policy coherence for inclusive and sustainable developmentPCDACCOUNT
Ebba Dohlman, OECD, discusses policy coherence for inclusive and sustainable development in a post-2015 context at a workshop organised by the European Commission on 12 June 2014.
Globalisation has become associated with difficulties for less-skilled workers, inequality and a general sense that it is not working for large sections of society, in both advanced and emerging economies. There is much to be done with domestic policy to improve outcomes, but there is also a strong need for better alignment of domestic and international policies and a more level playing field in the cross-border activities of businesses.
This booklet reproduces highlights from the 2017 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook which focuses on ways to enhance “fairness”, in the sense of strengthening global governance, to ensure a level playing field in trade, investment and corporate behaviour, through the setting and better enforcement of global standards.
Find out more here http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2017-9789264274891-en.htm
This paper discusses the Irish economy’s recent growth performance and considers its medium-and-long-term prospects for growth. A range of policy reforms to increase the economy’s long-run potential output are identified. The best way to sustain productivity growth is to increase investment in education and skills, particularly early years learning; to increase investment in the production, diffusion and use of new ideas, and to increase investment in productivity enhancing infrastructure.
Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level Paris, 6-7 May 2014Dr Lendy Spires
My strategic orientations set out how the OECD will continue to support Member and Partner Countries in addressing the four main legacies of the global financial crisis – low growth, high unemployment, declining trust and rising inequality – by providing timely, targeted, evidence-based advice on the design and implementation of “better policies for better lives”. • To effectively fulfil this role, the OECD needs to continuously upgrade its analytical framework and to better incorporate into its recommendations the inter-linkages, trade-offs and synergies that are the defining feature of the current policy landscape. This was the main motivation behind the launching of the ‘New Approaches to Economic Challenges’ (NAEC) initiative, the initial findings of which will be presented at this year’s Ministerial Council Meeting. Global Outlook • The ‘four cylinders’ of the global economy are still running at half speed, leaving the recovery weak, uneven and fragile. Despite some recent signs of improvement in trade and investment, credit growth and activity in emerging-markets have yet to regain their pre-crisis dynamism. • This challenge is compounded by policymakers’ limited room for manoeuvre. Expansionary fiscal policy has been accompanied by a surge in public debt in OECD economies, while highly supportive monetary policy is showing diminishing marginal returns and should be gradually normalised. For leaders in advanced and emerging economies alike, productivity-enhancing structural reforms remain the best avenue for pursuing robust long-term growth. • But stronger growth alone is not enough! We need growth that is balanced, inclusive and green, built on resilient national institutions and effective international co-operation. Structural reforms must aim to increase productivity, but also to reduce inequality, improve well-being, protect the environment and to help rebuild public trust. In this regard, the OECD’s approach to – “go structural, go social, go green, go institutional, and go national” – remains as pertinent as ever. Growth and Jobs • NAEC is already delivering a multi-dimensional policy analysis framework that is expected to permeate across the Organisation.
Economic Environment - Christian KASTROP, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christian Kastrop, OECD, at the 38th Annual Meeting of OECD Senior Budget Officials held in Lisbon, Portugal, on 1-2 June 2017
Better but-not-good-enough-oecd-economic-outlook-presentation-june-2017Michael D. Underhill
Global Economic Outlook, June 2017: OECD expects global GDP to grow at a 3.5% clip this year and at a 3.6% pace in 2018, thanks in part to stronger business and consumer confidence, recovering trade flows and improving unemployment dynamics.
Economies around the world face headwinds to rapid growth: volatile commodity prices, slowing trade and sluggish productivity growth. What are the critical drivers of competitiveness and productivity in France, Europe and elsewhere? How can we ensure that growth is both robust and socially inclusive? What will be the impact of the latest technologies on lives and livelihoods?
Presentation made by World Economic Forum
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
2014.04.28_NAEC Seminar_OECD@100
1. OECD@100:
POLICIES FOR A
SHIFTING WORLD
Henrik Braconier
OECD Economics Department
New Approaches to Economic Challenges
Seminar on Project C6, 28 April 2014
2. – Illustrate some key economic challenges over
the coming 50 years
– Identify policies to address these challenges
and which trade-offs such policy action can
generate
– To do this, we have used and developed a suite
of models to illustrate trends and interactions,
and to identify risks and tensions
2
Introduction
4. 4
Key trends identified
1. Shifting patterns of economic growth
2. Rising global economic interdependence
3. Increasing global environmental costs
4. Continued increases in earning inequalities
5. Substantial fiscal challenges
6. Medium-term risks for rising current-
account imbalances
5. • Ageing will weaken labour supply
• Less room for technological catch-up
• Slowing improvements in educational
attainment
But:
• Increasing importance of fast-growing
economies mitigates the slowdown
Growth 2014-2030: 3.6% 2030-2060: 2.7%
5
Global growth set to slow
7. 7
Drivers of growth in GDP per capita
Contribution to growth in GDP per capita, 2000-2060
8. If:
• Global trade expands in line with the shifting
world economy, what happens to
interdependence?
• Global growth becomes even more reliant on
multifactor productivity and knowledge-based
assets, what happens to income equality?
• Global GDP expands by 350%, what are the
environmental consequences in a ‘business as
usual’ scenario?
• Incomes in emerging economies catch-up, what
are the consequences, e.g. in terms of migration?
8
Consequences of global growth patterns
9. If:
• Global trade expands in line with the
shifting world economy, what happens to
interdependence?
• Global growth becomes even more reliant on
multifactor productivity and knowledge-based
assets, what happens to income equality?
• Global GDP expands by 350%, what are the
environmental consequences in a ‘business as
usual’ scenario?
• Incomes in emerging economies catch-up, what
are the consequences, e.g. in terms of migration?
9
Consequences of global growth patterns
12. If:
• Global trade expands in line with the shifting world
economy, what happens to interdependence?
• Global growth becomes even more reliant on
multifactor productivity and knowledge-based
assets, what happens to income equality?
• Global GDP expands by 350%, what are the
environmental consequences in a ‘business as usual’
scenario?
• Incomes in emerging economies catch-up, what are
the consequences, e.g. in terms of migration?
12
Consequences of global growth patterns
14. 14
Sources of rising earning inequality
2010-60
Contribution to change in gross earning inequality (D9/D1), 2010-60
15. If:
• Global trade expands in line with the shifting
world economy, what happens to
interdependence?
• Global growth becomes even more reliant on
multifactor productivity and knowledge-based
assets, what happens to income equality?
• Global GDP expands by 350%, what are the
environmental consequences in a ‘business
as usual’ scenario?
• Incomes in emerging economies catch-up, what
are the consequences, e.g. in terms of migration?
15
Consequences of global growth patterns
16. 16
Total greenhouse gas emissions, 2010
and 2060
Million tonnes, CO2 equivalent
48 700 million tonnes
99 500 million tonnes
18. If:
• Global trade expands in line with the shifting world
economy, what happens to interdependence?
• Global growth becomes even more reliant on
multifactor productivity and knowledge-based assets,
what happens to income equality?
• Global GDP expands by 350%, what are the
environmental consequences in a ‘business as usual’
scenario?
• Incomes in emerging economies catch-up,
what are the consequences, e.g. in terms of
migration?
18
Consequences of global growth patterns
20. 20
Potential labour force with modelled
migration flows
Per cent deviation from central scenario 2060
21. 21
Policies to support growth
On a national level:
Technological and managerial skills, combined with market
flexibility, are key to benefit from technological progress.
Returns to skill will likely rise. Increasing demand for tertiary
education should mainly be met through more tuitions. Limited
public resources should be focused on early schooling and
(possibly) life-long learning.
Retirement and labour market policies should encourage longer
working lives, while well-functioning labour markets can provide
better employment prospects and encourage immigration.
On an international level:
The provision of global public goods - such as basic research,
intellectual property right protection rules, competition policies,
and multilateral trade agreements – could be supported by stronger
international coordination.
22. 22
Policies to limit the rise in inequality
On a national level:
Structural policies that can mitigate inequality in pre-tax earnings (e.g.
employment protection) have limited potential and are often costly in
growth terms.
Policies that encourage employment will help to mitigate inequality in
disposable incomes.
Redistributive policies can mitigate inequality in disposable incomes,
but have to be focused in a tight fiscal environment.
Trade (and investment) integration will make some tax bases more
mobile. To maintain redistributive capacity, a shift towards less mobile
bases (e.g. housing, consumption and resource extraction) would be
beneficial.
On an international level:
Further global economic integration combined with an increasing
importance of (mobile) intangible factors of production can lead to
excessive tax competition. Additional international tax coordination
could therefore be useful (environmental , corporate income taxes).
23. 23
Addressing rising climate change costs
Appropriate pricing of carbon is key to discourage
carbon emissions, but requires coordinated
international efforts.
Further trade and investment integration will make
production-based taxes on emission-intensive activities
less efficient. Border carbon adjustments may therefore
become more attractive.
Further trade and investment integration may also
improve risk-sharing of hard-to-predict regional climate
damages.
Forward-looking leg of NAEC, OECD@100 focusing on 2060(61) when the OECD becomes 100.Quantitative tools, but numbers are not key.Challenges identified are often interdependent. Policies to deal with challenges often have side effects, leading to trade-offs and these may be different in 2060. Joint work with ENV and CEPII
Modelling tools combine existing tools (ECO LT-framework, ENV growth and linkages, CEPII Mage and Mirage) and newwage inequality module.Suite of additional models to identify tensions and risks in central scenario: Migration, investment in tertiary education, technology absorption and GDP impacts of environmental damages
GrowthShift from OECD towards EM and later LIAgeing and the labour force (OECD and EM)Growing reliance on knowledge capital and technologyRising trade integration, (VA-chains, investment and skilled-labour?)GDP-effects focusKnowledge-based growth – SBTCLess on latter two
OECD and EMEMOECD
China – USNon-OECD – OECDAfrica and IndiaMultipolarity
LT growth scenarios: Standard Solow-type production function, with (partial) convergence inMFP growth (to exogenous trend)Educational attainment convergencePopulation ageing is assumed to be mitigated through retirement reforms (already decided+ adjustment to rising longevity)Some institutional convergence (PMR, social spending, financial deepening)-> per capita income convergence and increasing reliance on MFP growth in OECDQuestions:What happens to the frontier? Gordon vsBrynjolfsonPolicies to benefit fully from technological progressInvestment in skills? Cf US stagnation and European publicly funded systemsRetirement reforms
Consequences of convergence?Multipolarity (but preference convergence?) -> How will potential for global economic coordination develop as multipolarity increases and income levels converge?Increasing spillovers for OECD countries from EMEs (example migration)-> How should OECD economies adjust policies to rising impacts from emerging economies?Slowing growth and shifting sources ->What are the side effects of KBC-driven growth?How to create conditions for knowledge-based growth and which are the side effects of that? (Example: inequality)Rising environmental damages -> How big, how fast and what can we do?
Consequences of convergence?Multipolarity (but preference convergence?) -> How will potential for global economic coordination develop as multipolarity increases and income levels converge?Increasing spillovers for OECD countries from EMEs (example migration)-> How should OECD economies adjust policies to rising impacts from emerging economies?Slowing growth and shifting sources ->What are the side effects of KBC-driven growth?How to create conditions for knowledge-based growth and which are the side effects of that? (Example: inequality)Rising environmental damages -> How big, how fast and what can we do?
Global trade composition will shift in line with global GDP (gravity)Trade intensity will increase (transport costs and trade barriers)Integration in other dimensions less clear (FDI, global value chains)Rising global integration will affect the effectiveness of national policies in some areas (Technology support, taxation, stabilisation policies).
Less need (and room for) national stabilisation policiesLarger international demand and supply spillovers
Consequences of convergence?Multipolarity (but preference convergence?) -> How will potential for global economic coordination develop as multipolarity increases and income levels converge?Increasing spillovers for OECD countries from EMEs (example migration)-> How should OECD economies adjust policies to rising impacts from emerging economies?Slowing growth and shifting sources ->What are the side effects of KBC-driven growth?How to create conditions for knowledge-based growth and which are the side effects of that? (Example: inequality)Rising environmental damages -> How big, how fast and what can we do?
MFP driven growth = Skill-biased technical change (skilled individuals benefit more from technology than less-skilled, although the latter may not lose in an absolute sense) since IR took off. In 2060 earning inequality in the OECD average at US current levels, Nordics at OECD average.Almost all between D9/D5 (high-medium)Further impact by rising capital shares?
Extended Tinbergen-model (race between technology and education) or race between technology, education and per capita income. SBTC=Global trend + MFPPolicies:Stopping technological progress is futile. Little knowledge of whether policies could support a path of less skill-biased technological change without harming growth.Regulations and labour market institutions can at best mitigate the increase, but at severe costs for growth.Rising earning inequalities leads to higher pay-offs in education. Can education policies address rising inequalities? Which, how to fund, and labour market policies as complements?More redistributive policies may be needed, but how can they be pursued in a more integrated world economy with tight fiscal constraints?
Consequences of convergence?Multipolarity (but preference convergence?) -> How will potential for global economic coordination develop as multipolarity increases and income levels converge?Increasing spillovers for OECD countries from EMEs (example migration)-> How should OECD economies adjust policies to rising impacts from emerging economies?Slowing growth and shifting sources ->What are the side effects of KBC-driven growth?How to create conditions for knowledge-based growth and which are the side effects of that? (Example: inequality)Rising environmental damages -> How big, how fast and what can we do?
A doubling of emissionsShifting economic balances leads to shifts in emissions.A 1.5-4.5 degrees C increase in temperatures by 2060Locked-in further temperature increases and larger damages
Global GDP -0.7 to – 2.5%Large regional variation (and uncertainty)Mainly lost output in terms of agriculture productivity, but also flooding, health, tourism)
Consequences of convergence?Multipolarity (but preference convergence?) -> How will potential for global economic coordination develop as multipolarity increases and income levels converge?Increasing spillovers for OECD countries from EMEs (example migration)-> How should OECD economies adjust policies to rising impacts from emerging economies?Slowing growth and shifting sources ->What are the side effects of KBC-driven growth?How to create conditions for knowledge-based growth and which are the side effects of that? (Example: inequality)Rising environmental damages -> How big, how fast and what can we do?
May rising income and wage levels in EMEs may slow and even reverse migration towards OECD?Demography is seen as “the only thing we know in the future”. This is only true if we “know” migration patterns.
Gravity model analysis suggest that inflows may dry out (and even reverse?), with grave consequences for host countries (LF -20% e.g. in EA in 2060)Policy conclusions:Don’t make promises based on such projections (e.g. pension systems). Applies more generally to population uncertainty. E.g. DB pension systems may be better.More immigration friendly policies may be needed (immigration and labour markets)Recent OECD analysis show that work-related migration is sensitive to economic returns -> inward migration to the OECD may slow as GDP per capita differences vis-à-vis emerging economies diminishes? -> economic impacts in OECD and emerging economies -> policy responses:Migration and structural policies to encourage work-related migration?Structural reforms to make institutions and economies more resilient to migration-risk?