The document discusses the future of cybersecurity, highlighting the evolution of threats and the growing complexity of security challenges due to increased internet users, data, and devices. It emphasizes the need for organizations to prepare for a rapidly changing threat landscape and adopt effective security measures while balancing risk, cost, and usability. The potential for attackers to outpace defenders is noted, alongside recommendations for improved collaboration and proactive leadership in security strategies.

1. The Future Evolution of Cybersecurity
Cybersecurity Prediction Conference
October 12th 2014, Rome Italy
Matthew Rosenquist
Cybersecurity Strategist, Intel Corp

2. Biography
2
Matthew Rosenquist
Cybersecurity Strategist
Intel Security Group
Matthew benefits from 20 years in the field of security, specializing in strategy, threats,
operations, crisis management, measuring value, communicating industry changes, and
developing cost effective capabilities which deliver the optimal level of security. As a
cybersecurity strategist, he works to understand and communicate the future of security
and drive industry collaboration to tackle challenges and uncover opportunities to
significantly improve global computing security.
Mr. Rosenquist built and managed Intel’s first global 24x7 Security Operations Center,
overseen internal platform security products and services, was the first Incident
Commander for Intel’s worldwide IT emergency response team, and managed security
for Intel’s multi-billion dollar worldwide mergers and acquisitions activities. He has
conducted investigations, defended corporate assets, established policies, developed
strategies to protect Intel’s global manufacturing, and owned the security playbook for
the PC strategic planning group. Most recently, Matthew worked to identify the
synergies of Intel and McAfee as part of the creation of the Intel Security Group, one of
the largest security product organizations in the world.
Twitter @Matt_Rosenquist
LinkedIn
Blogs Intel IT Peer Network

3. Technology connects and
enriches the lives of every
person on earth
Security is critical to protect
computing technology
from threats which
undermine the health of
the industry

4. “...If security breaks down, technology breaks down”
Brian Krebs
Noted Cybersecurity Reporter

5. 5
• Understand the value of security in technology
and shifting trends
• Better insights to today’s challenges and prepare
for tomorrows dangers
• Identify opportunities and best practices for
better security across the industry
• Define what success looks like:
• How do we prepare?
• How do we achieve sustainable security?
• Can we maintain an optimal balance of risk?
Peering into the future of cybersecurity

6. Chain Reactions Drive Cybersecurity Evolution…
6

7. Technology-Landscape Environmental changes
Graphic
7
More Users
~4B internet users by 2020
6.6B mobile cellular accts 2013
New users are less savvy, more
likely to share sensitive data
Easier to manipulate & victimize
More Devices
50B ‘things’ connected by 2020
35% will be M2M connections
Proliferation of sensor data
New architecture vulnerabilities
More Usages
New services, applications, social
ecosystems, and infrastructures
New data types, aggregation
Risky behaviors, untested tech,
and unforeseen consequences

8. Technology-Landscape Environmental changes
8
More Data
13x increase of mobile data 2012-17
3x data increase by 2018
30GB per person/mo. (2x 2013)
18% CAGR of Business traffic
Cheaper to store data vs delete
Greater Value
$14T Internet of Things value, 2022
$90T value of the networked
economy by end of next decade
Enterprises responsible 85% data
Controlling financial, defense &
critical infrastructure
Personal activity and health telemetry
Evolving IT Infrastructures
M2M, Software Defined Infrastructures
(SDDC, SDN, Virtualization), cloud
4x DC traffic by 2018, 31% CAGR
13,300 trillion connections by 2020
Internet of Things M2M networks will
grow fastest
ITU International Telecommunications Union

9. 9
 A growing target-rich environment of more users,
data, and devices
 Motivation for attacks rise as information and
systems increase in value
 New technology adoption, infrastructures, and
usages creates a larger attack surface
Easy Users/Devices/Data
Target Graphic
Effects of Technology-Landscape changes
More attractive targets emerge as
opportunities for attacks

10. Threat Evolution
10
Threat Agents Evolve
Rise of government surveillance,
cyberwarfare, information control
Social, political attacks, outsourcing
Motivations shift from personal
gains to aspirations of control
Investment grows
Powerful, organized, and well
funded new threat agents
Resources & community thrives
Success reinforces investment and
attracts new attackers
Nation-state ‘equalizer’
Seeking New Targets
Government, industrial, business
Satisfy dark-markets and for-profit
vulnerability research
Hardware attacks up, POS, mobile,
ATM, vehicles, industrial
Attackers maintain the initiative
$400b
Annual
cost of
global cybercrime

11. Threat Evolution
11
Security talent pool shrinks
70% orgs are understaffed
58% senior and 36% staff level
positions went unfilled in 2013
High leadership turnover
Tools and Methods
Powerful tools and code emerge
Reverse-engineering and reuse
15% of vulnerabilities exploited
Markets for exploits, services,
vulnerabilities, data, and skills
Threats Accelerate
Professionals emerge, educated,
organized, focused, and capable
Attacking further down the stack,
firmware and base code
Faster reconnaissance, recruiting,
and development of compromises

12. 12
 Attackers capabilities increases with investments,
experience, and professional threat agents
 Successes boosts confidence, raises the lure for
more attacks and boldness to expand scope
 Defenders struggle with a growing attack surface,
challenging effectiveness models, lack of talent,
and insufficient resources
Effects of the Threat Evolution
Threats advance, outpacing defenders
The Race to Evolve is On!

13. Impacts and Effects
13
Speed of Attacks
Increased pace: vulnerability to
exploit to compromises
New malware at 4 per second
1M+ victims/day (12/second)
Collective impact
$3T impact to the tech market
20%-30% of IT budgets
Privacy, personal finance
Emerging Life-Safety risks
Stress and Fear
Outages, downtime, reporting
Data breaches, reputation, IP
Job loss, brand, competition,
downsize, other major impacts,
What’s next?
An average Day
in an Average
Enterprise

14. 49%
Impacts and Effects
14
Annual malware growth rate
200M+ total malware samples
Organizations suffering
data loss
Online adults victims of
cybercrime or negative situations
Worldwide IT security spending in
2014, 7.9% increase
Organizations compromised by
attacker bypassing all defenses
552MTotal identities exposed in 2013,
493% increase
$71B 97%
93%50%
31 million
New 3-month
record

15. 4 Levels of Cybersecurity Impacts
15
Denial of Service (A)
• Access of customers
• Availability of data,
systems, & services
• DDOS network attacks,
ransom-ware data
locking attacks
Data Theft
& Exposure (C)
• ID Theft
• Privacy
• Data Breach
• Transaction data
• Database hacks,
skimming, lost
storage, keylogging
Monitor &
Manipulate (I)
• Internal-access
surveillance for
advantage
• Tamper / Manipulation
• Long-term data
gathering campaign
Own & Obliterate (C/I/A)
• Administrative ownership and control
• Capability of unrecoverable obliteration
• Strategic attack, undermining of org capability
Security Competency
Attacker Innovation
Today, we are here.
We have yet to experience,
understand, and adapt to
emerging impacts

16. 16
 Users are impacted more and more. Awareness
increases and security issues are recognized as a
serious problem
 Organizations feel the pain in losses, negative
press, interruption, leadership, & competitiveness
 Demands for more securely designed products,
trustworthy vendors, better user-behaviors,
advanced security systems, and more regulation to
protect assets, usability, privacy, and availability
Effects of Impacts
Expectations around security rise, driving change
www.informationisbeautiful.net

17. Defenses Respond
Graphic
17
Comprehensive
Security as a continuous cycle
Defense-In-Depth process
Technology and Behaviors
Obstacles and Opposition
Ubiquitous
Security must follow data from
creation to deletion
Layered across IT ecosystem
Contextual aspects gain in
importance
Seeking Optimal Risk
Risk management planning
Perceptions by executives
Balancing the triple constraints
of Cost, Risk, and Usability
Meeting users shifting demands

18. 18
Unified
Consolidation of security
functions
Independent security controls
work together
Security industry collaborates
across usages
Better Designs
Industry standards & BKM’s
evolve for specific threats
Trustworthy products, designed
to be harder to compromise
Robust architectures with built-in
security for detection & response
Explicit Regulations
Increase in number and specificity
Raise the bar, but not a guarantee
of security
Cover more segments and usages
Can be impediments to growth
Defenses Respond

19. The Future of Securing Technology
19
Smart Security innovation must deliver more capable solutions
to keep pace with threats
Ubiquitous Security must protect data wherever it exists or is used,
for all parties and devices across the compute landscape
Trusted Technology and security providers must be trustworthy,
in the creation and operation of their products
Strong Products and services must be hardened to resist
compromise and make security transparent to users
Open Platforms and security standards must be open to
promote collaboration and accelerate adoption
The compute
industry
must
transform to
become
sustainably
secure

20. Good Practices will Emerge…
20
Smarter vs More
Collaboration across security
functions improving effectiveness
Better IT choices & enablement
Measurably balancing the triple
constraints of risk, cost, & usability
Expectations Drive Change
Society’s expectations shift with
pain, impact, and inconvenience
Trust will be valued, demanded
Better security, privacy, and more
control (even if it is not used)
Improved controls
Innovation intersecting emerging
attacks to keep pace with attackers
Integration across solutions vs
point products
Intelligence, analysis, and action

21. Analysis Conclusion
21
 Verge of rapid changes, will get worse before
it gets better
 Threat landscape becomes more
professional, organized, and funded
 Technology ecosystem grows rapidly, creating
new attack surfaces
 Value of security rises in the eyes of the
public, government, and commercial sectors
 Attackers will outpace defenders in the short
term, until fundamental changes take place
 Defenses will evolve to be smarter, with
optimal and sustainable security as the goal

22. Recommendations
22
 Leadership is crucial. Take definitive steps to be ahead of the risk curve. Do
what is great, while it is small…
 Seek an optimal and sustainable level of security
 Stay aware of your threats, assets, controls, and exposures over time
 Get in front of technology adoption and leverage security to enable rather
than impede desired usages
 Treat security as a cycle. Prevention is important, but is never impervious.
Plan across the cycle, including feedback loops for continual improvement
 Leverage defensive advantages, experts, and continuously implement
industry best-known-methods
 Stay positive, keep learning, and collaborate across the community. We are
stronger together than individually

23. 23

24. Security Industry Data and Sources
24
• 3.6B people by 2020. Source: ITU International Telecommunications Union
• 6.6B mobile cellular subscriptions in 2013. Source: WorldBank.org
• Growth of devices chart. Source: BI Intelligence
• 50B ‘things’ connected by 2020. Source: Cisco
• 35% will be M2M connections. Source: Cisco
• More Data growth estimate graphic Source: IDC
• 13x increase of mobile data 2012-17 Source: Cisco
• 3x data increase by 2018 Source: Cisco
• 30GB per person/mo. (2x 2013) Source: Cisco
• 18% CAGR of Business traffic Source: Cisco
• $14.4 trillion dollars by 2022Internet of Things value. Source: Cisco
• Theoretical network connections table. Source: Cisco
• 4x DC traffic by 2018, 31% CAGR. Source: Cisco
• 13,300 trillion connections by 2020. Source: Cisco
• 70% of organizations claim they do not have enough IT security staff. Source: Ponemon Institute report: Understaffed and at Risk
• 58% of senior staff positions and 36% of staff positions went unfilled in 2013. Source: Ponemon Institute report: Understaffed and at Risk
• 15% of vulnerabilities exploited Source: University of Maryland
• Average Day in an Average Enterprise Stopwatch. Source: Check Point Security Report 2014
• New malware at 4 per second. Source: McAfee
• 1M+ victims/day (12/second). Source: McAfee
• $3T impact to the tech market: Source: World 2014 World Economic Forum’s Risk and Responsibility in a Hyperconnected World
• 20%-30% of IT budgets. Sources: McKinsey report (20-30%), Forrester 21%, SANS 11%-25%
• 49%, 200M+ total malware samples 240 per minute, 4 per second Source: McAfee Threat Report Q1 2014
• 50% Online adults victims of cybercrime or negative situations Source: Symantec
• 93% Organizations suffering data loss: Source: UK Government BIS survey 2013
• $71B Worldwide IT security spending in 2014, 7.9% increase Source: Gartner
• 97% Organizations compromised by attacker bypassing all defenses. Source: FireEye and Mandiant report Cybersecurity’s Maginot Line
• 552M Total identities exposed in 2013, 493% increase Source: Symantec
• Data Breach bubble graph. Source: http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/worlds-biggest-data-breaches-hacks/