GE CAPITAL PUBLISHES ANNUAL REVIEW OF CANADIAN CHAIN RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
The Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review is an extensive research report commissioned by GE Capital and compiled by fsSTRATEGY and The NPD Group Canada . Originally released MAY 2012, the annual publication can only be received in hard copy at the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit.
The report is a comprehensive analysis and factual overview of the state of chain foodservice in Canada. Findings have implications for job growth, construction activity and other factors that impact the economic health of Canada for several years to come. The report also sheds light on consumer spending habits and trends from province to province.
As our economy keeps on improving, the 2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review shows that Canadians continue to spend more and more at restaurants, with a year-over-year increase of 2%. In fact, total Canadian foodservice industry sales are expected to increase by 4.4%, or almost $3.2 billion, to $71.1 billion in 2014.
Only registered delegates of the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit, produced by Big Picture Conferences, receive hard copy of this report. To attend, visit www.restaurantinvest.ca for more information
Offering you WIDE DISTRIBUTION and FLAT FEE pricing so you can reach your audience without reaching into your pockets! If you are looking to submit press release news, our team can help.
Reduce your spend with our cost effective, flat fee pricing with unlimited word count, images, links, videos, and all multi-media for all press releases.
Offering you WIDE DISTRIBUTION and FLAT FEE pricing so you can reach your audience without reaching into your pockets! If you are looking to submit press release news, our team can help.
Reduce your spend with our cost effective, flat fee pricing with unlimited word count, images, links, videos, and all multi-media for all press releases.
e-Gourmet is an intelligent platform to manage the restaurant chain of value, allows to relate with the suppliers in line to keep the stock just in time, also allows to the restaurant costumers to order and paid in line and the most important smell the food they order.
Detailed Case Study on McDonalds India. Target Market, Retail Industry Overview. product, supply chain, pricing strategies, store location, hiring process, employees, promotional strategies, adapting to indian market. McDonalds Retail chain.
Marketing research project conducted for Pizza Hut Pakistan as part of MBA Marketing Research course final project.
Main objective to determine whether to continue deals menu, reduce it or expand it. Secondary Objective was to do a Usage and Attitude Study and a Consumer Satisfaction Survey.
2013 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review (partial version)Orie Berlasso
GE CAPITAL PUBLISHES ANNUAL REVIEW OF CANADIAN CHAIN RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
The Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review is an extensive research report commissioned by GE Capital and compiled by fsSTRATEGY and The NPD Group Canada . Originally released MAY 2012, the annual publication can only be received in hard copy at the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit.
The report is a comprehensive analysis and factual overview of the state of chain foodservice in Canada. Findings have implications for job growth, construction activity and other factors that impact the economic health of Canada for several years to come. The report also sheds light on consumer spending habits and trends from province to province.
Complete copies are only available to registered delegates of the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit .
2013 Provincial Dining Trends
• Ontario has the highest commercial foodservice sales at $20.062 billion, followed by Quebec at $10.485 billion.
• Alberta has the highest per capita commercial foodservice sales ($1,991), as well as the country's fastest-growing commercial foodservice sales, up 8.9 percent in 2012.
• Ontario has the largest population but its per capita commercial foodservice sales total $1,485.
• Manitoba has the lowest per capita commercial foodservice sales at $1,214, followed by Quebec at $1,289.
• On average, diners in Alberta spend $777 or 64.0% more in commercial foodservice establishments than diners in Manitoba.
• Nationwide, 62.2% of restaurant expenditures are in chain restaurants; Quebec has the greatest percentage of foodservice expenditures at independent restaurants at 48.4 percent.
2012 Research Findings:
• Canadian foodservice industry sales are expected to increase by 3.1% to CAD$65.4 billion in 2012.
• Visits to Canada’s commercial foodservice industry remained relatively flat last year, growing just 1% over the prior year.
• Alberta was the fastest-growing market at 7.8%.
• British Columbia was the only province that experienced foodservice revenue declines.
The report includes insights from the C-suite executives of leading Canadian chains on important issues such as:
• The greatest opportunities and threats in the foodservice industry,
• Restaurant industry merger and acquisition opportunities,
• Expected changes in sales as well as labour and food costs, among other operating and occupancy costs, and
• The outlook on restaurant industry capital expenditures.
Mitchell Roth, CEO of Southern Concepts Restaurant Group (OTCQB: RIBS) recently presented the company’s growth plans at the Liolios Group Gateway Conference in San Francisco, California. Topically, Mr. Roth discussed the details of the company’s plans for its new fast casual concept, Carve Barbecue as well as the fast casual landscape more broadly. During an interview at the conference, Mr. Roth discusses why the company has decided to pivot into fast casual and why he believes the market is demanding barbecue in fast casual.
e-Gourmet is an intelligent platform to manage the restaurant chain of value, allows to relate with the suppliers in line to keep the stock just in time, also allows to the restaurant costumers to order and paid in line and the most important smell the food they order.
Detailed Case Study on McDonalds India. Target Market, Retail Industry Overview. product, supply chain, pricing strategies, store location, hiring process, employees, promotional strategies, adapting to indian market. McDonalds Retail chain.
Marketing research project conducted for Pizza Hut Pakistan as part of MBA Marketing Research course final project.
Main objective to determine whether to continue deals menu, reduce it or expand it. Secondary Objective was to do a Usage and Attitude Study and a Consumer Satisfaction Survey.
2013 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review (partial version)Orie Berlasso
GE CAPITAL PUBLISHES ANNUAL REVIEW OF CANADIAN CHAIN RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
The Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review is an extensive research report commissioned by GE Capital and compiled by fsSTRATEGY and The NPD Group Canada . Originally released MAY 2012, the annual publication can only be received in hard copy at the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit.
The report is a comprehensive analysis and factual overview of the state of chain foodservice in Canada. Findings have implications for job growth, construction activity and other factors that impact the economic health of Canada for several years to come. The report also sheds light on consumer spending habits and trends from province to province.
Complete copies are only available to registered delegates of the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit .
2013 Provincial Dining Trends
• Ontario has the highest commercial foodservice sales at $20.062 billion, followed by Quebec at $10.485 billion.
• Alberta has the highest per capita commercial foodservice sales ($1,991), as well as the country's fastest-growing commercial foodservice sales, up 8.9 percent in 2012.
• Ontario has the largest population but its per capita commercial foodservice sales total $1,485.
• Manitoba has the lowest per capita commercial foodservice sales at $1,214, followed by Quebec at $1,289.
• On average, diners in Alberta spend $777 or 64.0% more in commercial foodservice establishments than diners in Manitoba.
• Nationwide, 62.2% of restaurant expenditures are in chain restaurants; Quebec has the greatest percentage of foodservice expenditures at independent restaurants at 48.4 percent.
2012 Research Findings:
• Canadian foodservice industry sales are expected to increase by 3.1% to CAD$65.4 billion in 2012.
• Visits to Canada’s commercial foodservice industry remained relatively flat last year, growing just 1% over the prior year.
• Alberta was the fastest-growing market at 7.8%.
• British Columbia was the only province that experienced foodservice revenue declines.
The report includes insights from the C-suite executives of leading Canadian chains on important issues such as:
• The greatest opportunities and threats in the foodservice industry,
• Restaurant industry merger and acquisition opportunities,
• Expected changes in sales as well as labour and food costs, among other operating and occupancy costs, and
• The outlook on restaurant industry capital expenditures.
Mitchell Roth, CEO of Southern Concepts Restaurant Group (OTCQB: RIBS) recently presented the company’s growth plans at the Liolios Group Gateway Conference in San Francisco, California. Topically, Mr. Roth discussed the details of the company’s plans for its new fast casual concept, Carve Barbecue as well as the fast casual landscape more broadly. During an interview at the conference, Mr. Roth discusses why the company has decided to pivot into fast casual and why he believes the market is demanding barbecue in fast casual.
The Supply Chains To Admire Report for 2021Lora Cecere
The Supply Chains To Admire methodology tracks the rate of improvement and performance of 60 public companies in 28 industry sectors. Twenty companies outperform including In the 2021 analysis, twenty companies met the Supply Chains to Admire Award criteria. The winners include Apple, AbbVie Inc., Air Products & Chemicals, Assa Abloy AB, Broadcom, Celestica, Dollar General, Ecolab Inc., Intuitive Surgical, Inditex, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Nike Inc., Nvidia, PACCAR Inc, Ross Stores, Sleep Number, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Company, Tempur Sealy, TJX Companies, and Western Digital. No company met the criteria in seventeen of the twenty-six sectors studied.
Initial Valuation Report
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
12/14/2015
Final Report
CONTENT
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Company and Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 2
Chipotle Mexican Grill - The Business .................................................................................................................................... 2
Strategic Highlights ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2
Restaurant Industry - The Playing Field ............................................................................................................................... 2
Financial Ratio Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Key Ratios across Industry .......................................................................................................................................................... 4
DuPont Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Profitability across Industry ....................................................................................................................................................... 6
Detailed Revenue Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Other Key Ratios .............................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Forecast of Financial Statements ............................................................................................................................................. 9
Financial Statements – 2015-2020 .......................................................................................................................................... 9
Sustainable long term growth rate analysis ..................................................................................................................... 10
Underlying assumptions ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
Risk and Return Analysis ...................................................................................................................... ...
2017 HAC Conference (FEB 15-16, 2017 | Toronto) Orie Berlasso
Produced by Big Picture Conferences, the 2017 HAC Conference brings together 400 of Canada's hoteliers for the latest trends, educational content and the best networking.
2017 HAC Conference (FEB 15-16, 2017 | Toronto) Orie Berlasso
Produced by Big Picture Conferences, the 2017 HAC Conference brings together 400 of Canada's hoteliers for the latest trends, educational content and the best networking.
ASSESSING THE REAL IMPACT OF AIRBNB ON THE CANADIAN LODGING INDUSTRYOrie Berlasso
This session was presented at the 2016 Western Canadian Lodging Conference in Vancouver. The presentation provided delegates with an understanding of Airbnb (size, growth, next areas of focus, operating model, its relation to OTA's and potential evolution) on a world-wide basis but with Canadian examples. Ken Lambert | HLT Advisory Inc and Chris Gibbs | Ryerson University, discussed the current and future impact of Airbnb had on the hotel sector’s supply, average rates as well as on cities hosting major events (i.e leisure and conventions)
Produced by Big Picture Conferences, the Western Canadian Lodging Conference (WCLC), formerly known as the Western Canadian Hotel & Resort Investment Conference, aims to provide a year-end perspective on both resort and urban lodging, with a western Canadian focus. If you are involved in the development and/or operation of recreational/resort real estate or active in the hotel and urban-based investment market, join the growing number of delegates who benefit from interactive sessions and timely insights into investment activity. Hosted by CBRE Hotels Canada and HLT Advisory; and in partnership with our Platinum Sponsor HVS and the BC Hotel Association (BCHA)—the Conference is a vehicle for senior level executives to reflect on the various issues impacting the lodging industry.
2016 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference _ BrochureOrie Berlasso
7 REASONS WHY
YOU CAN'T MISS
THE 2016 HAC CONFERENCE...
Stakeholders will once again look to the Hotel Association of Canada for advice and guidance on how to position themselves for the year ahead as they gather at the 103-year-old association's annual conference on February 29- March 1 at the Hilton Toronto Hotel.
The association, which represents more than 8,100 hotels, motels and resorts in Canada's $17.5 billion lodging industry, will offer invaluable insight to the trends that will shape the year ahead. Here are six reasons you can't miss the 2016 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference.
1. DEMYSTIFYING DISTRIBUTION: Still challenged by the prominence of bookings through third party intermediaries? Learn new techniques to understand distribution costs and its impact on hotel profit. Cindy Estis Green of Kalibri Labs presentation is worth the cost of admission alone.
2. SURVEY SAYS: This annual session is a snapshot into the Hotel Association of Canada's Travel Intentions Survey. Get a glimpse into potential business volumes for 2016, get a head's up on possible challenges and find out how to book more business for your hotel in the year ahead.
3. TAKE BACK YOUR GUESTS: Check In Canada is a ground breaking national initiative that contributes to the improved alignment of tourism marketing and helps hoteliers reduce reliance on OTAs. Find out how this is actually working in Western Canada, and how you can substantially reduce your OTA costs and ensure your customer books direct with your hotel.
4. MILLENNIALS: It's time to take millennials seriously. Hear from the next generation of recent hospitality graduates as Vito Curalli moderates a panel of "fresh faces" with a series of questions focussed on hotel operations, travel experiences and their vision for the future of Canadian hotels.
5. THE BOTTOM LINE: No profit, no hotel. Find out what it takes to find success in any economy, as experts provide insight into the real day-to-day decisions managers make that affect the long-term sustainability of any operation.
6. SIR DAVID MICHELS: Having spent over 40 years in the hotel and gaming business, Sir David retired as Chief Executive of Hilton Group in 2007 having sold Hilton International to Hilton Hotels Corporation for £4 billion and launching Ladbrokes as a standalone public company. Meet the legend as he shares his candid and memorable stories.
7. YOUR FRIENDS WILL BE THERE: The HAC Conference presents national networking with noted industry leaders who share opinions, stimulate discussion
and create new directions. Join your friends!
For more information on attending the HAC Conference, review the program and register.
CRIS + CROS Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit (CRIS) and Canadian Restaur...Orie Berlasso
In an effort to extend learning opportunities to a larger community, GE Capital and Big Picture Conferences will be producing an additional event, in association with Restaurants Canada on March 2, 2015 at the Hilton Hotel .
The Canadian Restaurant Operators Summit (CROS) will focus on boosting operational knowledge, and will run at the same time as the 7th Annual Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit (CRIS) which covers investment and real estate trends. CRIS/CROS will follow the Restaurants Canada National Show with an opening reception held at the Hockey Hall of Fame followed by conference sessions on March 2nd at the Hilton Toronto Hotel.
Whether you attend CRIS or CROS, prices for the events are exactly the same. You may choose to stay in the investment or development track at CRIS, or join in on the CROS sessions designed to fine-tune your operations to reduce waste and grow profits. The choice is yours!
Hotel Capital Connection 2015 | Conference BrochureOrie Berlasso
Recognizing the need for a “made-in-Canada” event, Big Picture Conferences is pleased to present Hotel Capital Connection (HCC) an exclusive networking and educational event that matches Canadian hotel owners with top legal, financial and tax advisors.
Designed to provide C-Level (CEO, COO, CFO) Hospitality executives with the resources, knowledge and vision to help make better investment decisions, HCC explores current issues impacting the hotel investment community and future opportunities through in-depth, interactive workshops that are led by Canada’s most trusted legal, financial and tax firms.
The event is planned with designated time and space throughout the afternoon to meet with significant deal makers and conduct business.
SPEAKERS
Jason Arbuck
Partner
CASSELS BROCK & BLACKWELL LLP
Orie Berlasso
Managing Director
BIG PICTURE CONFERENCES
Guy Buckley
Partner
BDO CANADA
Jessi Carrier
Associate Vice President
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL HOTELS
Jason Crane
Vice President, Property Tax
ALTUS GROUP
Mark Kay
President
CFO GROUP
Ed Khediguian
Senior Vice President
GE CAPITAL
Paul Scholz
Managing Director
INSTITUTIONAL MORTGAGE CAPITAL
Bill Stone
Executive Vice President
CBRE HOTELS
Phil Thompson
Principal
THOMPSON DYMOND
2015 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference _ Conference BrochureOrie Berlasso
5 Reasons Why You Can't Miss the 2015 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference
TORONTO, Jan. 9, 2015
While the plunging price of oil puts more money into the pockets of the average consumer, 2015 promises to be a challenging year for the tourism industry as consumers try to figure out whether their cheap gas will come at the expense of the economy.
Stakeholders will once again look to the Hotel Association of Canada for advice and guidance on how to position themselves for the year ahead as they gather at the 100-year-old association's annual conference on February 2-3 at the Hilton Toronto Hotel.
The association, which represents more than 8,500 hotels, motels and resorts in Canada's $16.7 billion lodging industry, will offer invaluable insight to the trends that will shape the year ahead. Here are five reasons you can't miss the 2015 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference.
The future, now: Few business leaders can offer the depth of insight provided by Sean Moffitt, the managing director of Wikibrands. He'll delve into 30 of the most pragmatic ideas you need to understand over the next 12 months if you're going to be successful. Storytelling and transparency are at the core of his talks that inspire action.
Survey says: This annual session is a snapshot into the Hotel Association of Canada's Travel Intentions Survey. Get a glimpse into potential business volumes for 2015, get a head's up on possible challenges and find out how to book more business for your hotel in the year ahead.
Innovation 101: There's a lot to learn from the world's most innovative companies. Douglas Stephens, founder of Retail Profit and a leading market researcher, will give an inspiring talk about the surprising links between the world's most successful businesses and provide plenty of tips on how others can emulate their success.
Millennials: It's time to take millennials seriously. This digital generation is notoriously hard to reach, despite their near-constant use of technology to communicate and their voracious online appetites. Find out how to win them over.
The Bottom Line: No profit, no hotel. Find out what it takes to find success in any economy, as experts provide insight into the real day-to-day decisions managers make that affect the long-term sustainability of any operation.
For more information on attending the HAC Conference, review the program and register.
www.hacconference.ca
Orie Berlasso
Managing Director Big Picture Conferences Inc
2015 Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference _ Orie Berlasso_ Big P...Orie Berlasso
2015 HOTEL ASSOCIATION OF CANADA'S NATIONAL CONFERENCE
FEB 2-3, 2015
HILTON TORONTO HOTEL
www.hacconference.ca
If you’re looking for the answers, the information and trends in Canadian lodging the HAC Conference is the place to be.
National networking. Top name speakers. Insightful information.
All in one place. All with one objective—more business.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
BEST PRACTICES FOR ONLINE SALES
Learn how hotel owners and operators can best leverage the OTA’s and Media Companies to complement their strategy while driving incremental room nights and revenue.
PANEL:
Vito Curalli Hilton Worldwide
Reetu Gupta Easton’s Group of Hotels
Jason Sarracini TravelZoo
Susan Spinney Expedia
Lise Struwing Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel
________________________________________
THE MILLENNIAL CONSUMER— HOW TO WIN THEM OVER
It’s time to take millennials seriously. This digital generation is notoriously hard to reach despite their near-constant use of technology to communicate. They may be the most elusive target, but they are also the largest. In just over 10 years, Millennials will make up 50% of the world’s workforce—meaning they will be the highest-spending generation in history. In a study of 4000 interviews which included 2000 Millennials, Ted Langschmidt, Qi Value Systems Inc., studied, in great detail, “The Why of Y”. Don’t miss out on this presentation!
________________________________________
SALES 2.0
Customers’ expectations have evolved in terms of how they want to be engaged and communicated to during the buying process. Today’s sales professional needs to be solutions focused, know how to leverage technology and be innovative and move beyond selling “rates, dates and space.”
In this highly interactive panel discussion, delegates will better understand:
*What is Sales 2.0
*How has technology changed the way customers want be engaged in the sales process
*What is the new role for hotels sales professionals
*What do customers value and not value in a sales person
*How can sales professionals leverage technology to enhance the sales process and drive greater value to their customers
PANEL:
Tammy Gillis Gillis Consulting & Training Inc.
Nancy Johnson Jonview Canada
Sharlene Ketwaroo-Nanoo Canadian Tire
Laura Pallotta Delta Hotels and Resorts
Mark Sergot FRHI Hotels & Resorts
________________________________________
For more information, visit www.hacconference.ca
2014 Hotel Association of Canada and Canadian Tourism Marketing Summit | Conf...Orie Berlasso
If you’re looking for the answers, the information and the trends in Canadian lodging the HAC Conference is the place to be.
This year, some of the biggest names and the brightest minds in the industry will come together to share insights, nurture ideas and help formulate strategies that will help drive business over the next twelve months.
The Hotel Association of Canada is the effective voice of the Canadian Hotel & Lodging industry. For over 100 years, it has worked to enhance the prosperity of the Industry through strong member engagement, effective advocacy, and the provision of value added programs and services. The Hotel Association represents more than 8,500 hotels, motels and resorts that encompass the $17 billion Canadian hotel industry which employs 290,000 people across Canada.
2014 Western Canadian Hotel and Resort Investment Conference_Orie Berlasso_Bi...Orie Berlasso
For 18 years, The Canadian Hotel Investment Conference has provided a first class forum as the sought after annual springtime gathering for Canadian lodging industry. The Western Canadian Hotel & Resort Investment Conference provides a year-end perspective on resort and urban lodging - with a western focus. If you are involved in the development and/or operation of recreational/resort real estate or active in the hotel and urban-based investment market, join the growing number of delegates who benefit from interactive sessions and timely insights into investment activity. This is a unique opportunity for lenders/investors, architects, designers, hospitality consultants, lawyers to gain better perspective on the potential of this rapidly evolving industry.
2014 Western Canadian Hotel and Resort Investment Conference_Orie Berlasso_Bi...Orie Berlasso
For 18 years, The Canadian Hotel Investment Conference has provided a first class forum as the sought after annual springtime gathering for Canadian lodging industry. The Western Canadian Hotel & Resort Investment Conference provides a year-end perspective on resort and urban lodging - with a western focus. If you are involved in the development and/or operation of recreational/resort real estate or active in the hotel and urban-based investment market, join the growing number of delegates who benefit from interactive sessions and timely insights into investment activity. This is a unique opportunity for lenders/investors, architects, designers, hospitality consultants, lawyers to gain better perspective on the potential of this rapidly evolving industry.
2014 Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit_ brochureOrie Berlasso
The Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit will take place MAY 6-7 @ newly renovated Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel. The event will deliver hard-hitting insight, candid industry headliners, and plenty of straight talk and features an economic update from CRAIG WRIGHT, Senior Vice-President & Chief Economist at RBC Capital Markets. Also on the program; AMANDA LANG, BILL GREGSON, PAUL RIVETT, BLAKE HUTCHESON, PETER SENST, ROBERT CARTER, WILLIAM CARUSO, GARTH WHYTE…and more!
Of interest, an exclusive session has just been added:
LESSONS LEARNED IN TOUGH TIMES. HOW OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE CAN BE A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
(Churchill Ballroom)
The US economic downturn hit the restaurant industry hard, resulting in store closures, business failures and changes in consumer demands. However, there are also many cases of positive performance and growth on both a segment and brand level . We will explore what factors played into these success stories, how did they execute and what can Canadian operators and brands learn from these experiences going forward.
Todd Jones, Managing Director, Brand Management at GE Capital Franchise Finance will explore some key themes around operational excellence in the US restaurant industry. Todd will also share some critical best practices for expanding operations in the current American market landscape in light of what we’ve learned since the downturn, and how Canadian companies operating in the US can benefit.
More details and registration information can be found at www.restaurantinvest.ca
2014 Canadian Hotel Investment Conference_ brochureOrie Berlasso
The 18th ANNUAL Canadian Hotel Investment Conference provides a unique opportunity to join 400 industry professionals from across the country to discuss the future of the Canadian hotel industry. Hosted by CBRE Hotels, Colliers International Hotels, HLT Advisory Inc and produced by Big Picture Conferences, the hard-hitting sessions and powerful panels zero in on lodging development, investment and finance to reveal viable opportunities, future trends and up-to-the minute cross country performance.
Hotel owners, developers, and "C-Level" (COO, CEO, CFO, CIO) executives from all hotel brands are in attendance including designers, architects, consultants, legal advisors and lenders who partake in the program.
We have a great line up of speakers at the event with fantastic support from 47 sponsors. The event kicks off at the opening reception- MAY 5 @ Four Seasons Toronto Hotel followed by conference sessions on MAY 6 @ the newly renovated Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel. Full details can be found at www.hotelinvest.ca
2014 Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit_ Todd Jones_ Orie BerlassoOrie Berlasso
Just Announced!
LESSONS LEARNED IN TOUGH TIMES. HOW OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE CAN BE A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Todd Jones, Managing Director, Brand Management at GE Capital Franchise Finance will explore key themes around operational excellence in the US restaurant industry. In light of what we’ve learned since the downturn, Todd will share critical best practices for expanding operations. There are many cases of positive performance and growth and he will uncover what factors played into these success stories, how did they execute and what can Canadian operators and brands learn from these experiences going forward.
2014 Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit Eblast #3 Orie BerlassoOrie Berlasso
We have Blake Hutcheson (President/CEO at Oxford), Peter Senst ( President Canadian Capital Markets at CBRE) and Craig Wright (Chief Economist at RBC) interviewed by Amanda Lang on MAY 7 at the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit. Don't miss this economic outlook and big picture discussion from top real estate executives. Register today
2014 Canadian Hotel Investment Conference Cdn Lodging News (Orie Berlasso)Orie Berlasso
The 18th ANNUAL Canadian Hotel Investment Conference (MAY 5-6, 2014) provides a unique opportunity to join 400 industry professionals from across the country to discuss the future of the Canadian hotel industry. Hosted by CBRE Hotels, Colliers International Hotels, HLT Advisory Inc and produced by Big Picture Conferences, the hard-hitting sessions and powerful panels zero in on lodging development, investment and finance to reveal viable opportunities, future trends and up-to-the minute cross country performance.
Hotel owners, developers, and “C-Level” (COO, CEO, CFO, CIO) executives are in attendance including designers, architects, consultants, legal advisors and lenders who partake in the program. Join in on the networking at this “must-do” annual event.
Sponsored by Days Inn, Amanda Lang, from CBC News, returns to interview two leaders in the Canadian hotel investment space: Sylvain Fortier, Executive VP of Hotels at Ivanhoe Cambridge and Simon Turner, President of Global Development at Starwood Hotels and Resorts. Don’t miss this insightful look into the Canadian (and international) hotel ownership and investment world from two of the key players.
2014 Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit Eblast #2Orie Berlasso
Just Announced: AMANDA LANG INTERVIEWS BILL GREGSON, PRESIDENT OF CARA, AND PAUL RIVETT, PRESIDENT OF FAIRFAX
Recently, Cara announced that it closed a strategic financing transaction with Fairfax Financial Holdings and acquired Prime Restaurants Inc from Fairfax as part of the deal. With a strategic financial partner like Fairfax and the addition of Prime's casual dining restaurant brands and premium Irish pubs, including East Side Mario's, Casey's and Prime Pubs (Fionn MacCool's, D'Arcy McGee's, Paddy Flaherty's, Tir nan Óg) and Belgian-style brasseries operating as the Bier Markt, Cara has solidified its position as Canada's largest full service restaurant company with iconic brands that deliver unique dining experiences for Canadians coast to coast. This combined family of restaurants significantly increases Cara's scale, strengthens its market position and provides opportunities for growth and acquisitions.
Join Amanda Lang, from CBC News, as she interviews Bill Gregson, newly appointed President and CEO of Cara, and Paul Rivett, President of Fairfax.
For more information visit: www.restaurantinvest.ca
Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit will take place MAY 6-7, 2014 at the newly renovated Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel. Now in its fifth successful year, the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit has solidly established itself as the annual business conference that brings the industry into focus.
Operators, chain executives, franchise operators, investors, lenders and key suppliers from across the country agree that this is the event that delivers what they need —insight, information and opportunity—all with meaningful content and a tight focus that is uniquely Canadian.
2014 Canadian Hotel Investment Conference FEB AD for Hotelier MagazineOrie Berlasso
CBRE Hotels, Colliers International Hotels and HLT Advisory welcome you to the 18th Annual Canadian Hotel Investment Conference. This year, the Four Seasons Toronto Hotel will host the opening reception on MAY 5 with the conference sessions taking place at the newly renovated Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel.
This premiere event is strongly supported by sponsors including Hilton Worldwide, Marriott, IHG, HVS, Marriott Hotels and Resorts and Starwood Hotels and Resorts and many more.
Registration will be open soon.
2014 Canadian Hotel Investment Conference FEB AD for Canadian Lodging NewsOrie Berlasso
First launched in 1997, the Canadian Hotel Investment Conference has established itself as the definitive source for information, insight and opinion on today’s Canadian lodging market. For senior executives from across North America this business conference delivers outstanding insight on where the industry is today, where its heading and the options it can deliver.
Hard-hitting sessions and powerful industry panels zero in on lodging development, investment and finance to reveal viable opportunities, future trends and up-to-the minute cross country performance. Critical insights from experts, shared information from industry insiders and important one-on-one networking all come together in a program that has become a “must-do” annual event.
2014 HAC Conference & Canadian Tourism Marketing Summit- Centre Spread Ad in ...Orie Berlasso
Centre Spread ad in Canadian Lodging News JAN/FEB 2014 issue for the Hotel Association of Canada's National Conference held in conjunction with Canadian Tourism Marketing Summit on FEB 11-13, 2014 at Eaton Chelsea Toronto Hotel.
Keynote speakers include:
Sherryl Connelly- Ford Motor Company
Nicolas Darveau-Garneau and Eric Morris- Google
Curt Steinhorst
Bill Todd- Sales Professional
Terry O'Reilly- back by popular demand
Tony D'Astolfo- Managing Director at PhoCusWright
Adrian Brijbassi- Canadian Tourism Commission
+more
Check out www.hacconference.ca and www.cdntourismmarketing.ca for more details.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
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4. Insightful and Trustworthy Data to Help Grow our Businesses
Welcome to GE Capital’s third annual Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry
Review. I am pleased to bring you this extensive research report on the state
of chain foodservice in this country with the goal of providing insight into key
factors affecting our Canadian industry.
The Review is a comprehensive analysis and factual overview of market shares,
revenue trends, costs, hot (and not-so-hot) products, consumer behaviour
and the overall state of chain foodservice in Canada. These findings have
implications for job growth, construction activity and other factors that will
impact the economic health of Canada for 2014 and for several years to come.
GE Capital wishes to thank fsSTRATEGY and NPD Group Canada for their great
work at compiling and analyzing these results.
As our economy keeps on improving, the Review shows that Canadians
continue to spend more and more at restaurants, with a year-over-year
increase of 2%. In fact, total Canadian foodservice industry sales are expected
to increase by 4.4%, or almost $3.2 billion, to $71.1 billion in 2014.
I find this data very encouraging for the future of our industry. Reading through
the Review will undoubtedly give you food for thought. Our market insights will
also assist you in building forward-looking plans to help grow your business.
The Canadian chain foodservice industry has gotten stronger in the past years
and it’s thanks to your passion and dedication. I wish you all continued success
in your endeavours.
Ed Khediguian
GE Capital, Canada
Franchise Finance
GE Capital
Franchise Finance
Preface1
2
5. GE Capital, Franchise Finance Canada
We’re More Than Just Bankers, We’re Builders
GE Capital, Franchise Finance is a leading lender to the restaurant and hospitality industries in
Canada. We specialize in financing regional and national restaurant businesses of all sizes across
the country. In the past 12 years, we’ve financed more than 750 restaurant customers with upwards
of 1,525 property locations. That’s in excess of $1.35 billion that we’ve invested in the Canadian
restaurant space.
In addition to financing at the franchisee and franchisor levels, we lend money for new developments,
recapitalizations of existing businesses, mergers and acquisitions, and management-led buyouts.
But we offer our clients more than money.
At GE Capital, we’re not just bankers, we’re builders. On top of smart financing, we provide the know-
how of GE to help your capital go further and do more. We’re excited that you’re building something
great. It takes money, along with knowledge and expertise. That’s where we come in.
Here are some reasons to consider financing with us:
žž A vast portfolio of national and regional restaurant relationships – in a variety of quick service and
casual formats – that we’ve maintained through economic ups and downs;
žž Deep expertise in the franchise business and a special understanding of the brands that operate in
this market;
žž A cash flow-based lending model that allows us to value a business based on performance, while
taking into account seasonality and other operation issues that specifically affect restaurants; and
žž The Access GE program, through which we bring the tools, resources, insights and expertise of GE
to help business leaders with their most pressing challenges.
We look forward to working with you as you continue to grow and succeed.
GE Capital
Franchise Finance
1 | Preface
3
6. Now in its fifth year, the Canadian RestauRant
investment summit has solidly established itself as the
annual business conference that brings the industry
into focus.
Operators, chain executives, franchise operators, investors,
lenders and key suppliers from across the country agree
that this is the event that delivers what they need—insight,
information and opportunity—all with meaningful content
and a tight focus that is uniquely Canadian.
Each year, the Summit presents topical issues and noted
thought leaders who share opinions, stimulate discussion
and create new directions. The entire conference program
is designed to yield authoritative information and the latest
data from across the country. When combined with the
powerful networking opportunities it presents, the Summit
is an experience that is unequalled anywhere in Canada.
maY6+7,2014
EATON CHELSEA TOrONTO HOTEL
rESTAUrANTINVEST.CA rESTAUrANTINVEST.CA rESTAUrANTINVEST.CA rESTAUrANTINVEST.CA
TOP NAME INDUSTrY SPEAKErS.
SErIOUS NETWOrKING.
THANK YOU fOr jOINING
THE DISCUSSION.
*Confirmed Sponsors as of March 21, 2014
Canadian
RestauRant
investment
summit
PArTNErS & SPONSOrS
4
7. fsSTRATEGY Inc. (“fsSTRATEGY”) and The NPD Group, Inc. (“NPD”) are pleased
to release this 2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Review as part of the 2014
Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit.
This report is the culmination of extensive primary and secondary research
conducted by fsSTRATEGY and NPD. Sources include:
žž Research and data provided by Restaurants Canada, formerly the Canadian
Restaurant and Foodservices Association (“CRFA”).
žž C-Suite Survey in January and February, 2014 conducted by fsSTRATEGY
and sent to over 94 CEOs and CFOs in the Canadian chain foodservice
market.
žž Detailed data from NPD’s Future of Foodservice.
žž Interviews with selected food grower associations, foodservice distributors
and landlords.
žž Information prepared by GE Canada on the state of money markets and
chain restaurant financing.
žž Secondary research data from other sources such as Statistics Canada,
PKF Consulting, TD Economics, the Conference Board of Canada, University
of Guelph, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Canada
Ministry of Labour, Ontario Energy Board, International Monetary Fund and
RSMeans.
For further information, please contact:
Geoff Wilson or Jeff Dover Robert Carter
fsSTRATEGY Inc. The NPD Group (Canada), Inc.
gwilson@fsSTRATEGY.com robert.carter@npd.com
jdover@fsSTRATEGY.com (647) 723-7767
(416) 229-2290
Introduction2
5
2 | Introduction
8. Foodservice
Industry
Profile
3.1 Canadian Foodservice Industry Sales
3.2 Chain versus Independent Operator Sales
3.3 Provincial Sales Trends
3.4 Same Store Sales Growth
3.5 C-Suite Expectations for Sales and Traffic
3
6
9. 3.1 Canadian Foodservice Industry Sales
Canadian foodservice industry sales represented 3.7% of national gross domestic product in
2013 and industry sales are expected to increase by 4.4% to $71.1 billion in 2014. The Canadian
foodservice industry is divided into commercial and non-commercial sectors. Commercial foodservice
includes full-service restaurants (“FSR”), quick-service restaurants (“QSR”), and drinking places. Chain
foodservice sales reside in these three categories.
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc. and PKF Consulting
1
Includes self-operated education, transportation, health care, correctional, remote, private & public sector dining and military
foodservice.
2
Includes foodservice operated by department stores, convenience stores and other retail establishments.
3
Includes vending, sports and private clubs, movie theatres, stadiums and other seasonal or entertainment operations.
Historic Nominal Foodservice Sales by Sector ($millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Forecast)
(Millions) Change (Millions) Change (Millions) Change (Millions) Change (Millions) Change
Quick-Service Restaurants $21,219.7 5.4% $21,962.0 3.5% $23,144.6 5.4% $24,024.1 3.8% $25,177.3 4.8%
Full-Service Restaurants 20,931.4 1.2% 21,486.0 2.6% 22,693.2 5.6% 23,487.4 3.5% 24,567.8 4.6%
Contract and Social Caterers 3,997.6 7.1% 4,213.5 5.4% 4,395.8 4.3% 4,602.4 4.7% 4,869.3 5.8%
Drinking Places 2,467.7 -3.4% 2,362.4 -4.3% 2,351.3 -0.5% 2,332.5 -0.8% 2,367.5 1.5%
Total Commercial $48,616.3 3.2% $50,024.0 2.9% $52,584.8 5.1% $54,446.3 3.5% $56,981.9 4.7%
Accommodation Foodservice $5,206.0 7.1% $5,235.0 0.6% $5,544.0 5.9% $5,794.0 4.5% $5,886.0 4.2%
Institutional Foodservice1
3,392.3 4.3% 3,562.1 5.0% 3,697.9 3.8% 3,862.2 4.4% 3,985.2 2.2%
Retail Foodservice2
1,285.4 0.2% 1,267.6 -1.4% 1,314.5 3.7% 1,367.1 4.0% 1,229.4 2.5%
Other Foodservice3
2,254.8 2.7% 2,304.4 2.2% 2,362.0 2.5% 2,416.3 2.3% 2,484.0 2.8%
Total Non-Commercial $12,138.4 4.7% $12,369.0 1.9% $12,918.4 4.4% $13,439.6 4.0% $13,584.6 3.2%
Total Foodservice $60,754.7 3.5% $62,393.0 2.7% $65,503.2 5.0% $67,886.0 3.6% $71,108.2 4.4%
Menu Inflation 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
Real Growth 1.1% -0.2% 2.5% 1.1% 1.8%
7
3 | Foodservice Industry Profile
10. As shown, commercial foodservice sales increased by 3.5% in 2013 while non-commercial sales
increased by 4.0%. Commercial foodservice sales are projected by Restaurants Canada to increase by
4.7% to $57.0 billion in 2014.
Historical Foodservice Sales Total versus Commercial – 1990 through 2014 (Forecast)
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc. and PKF Consulting
Total nominal foodservice sales are expected to increase from $30.8 billion in 1990 to an estimated
$71.1 billion in 2014. This represents a compound average growth rate of 3.55%. Commercial sales
(which include chain restaurant sales) represent over 80% of total foodservice sales, compared to 75%
in 1990.
BillionsofDollars
23
22 23
24
26 27
28 29
31
33
35
36 37 38
40
41
43
45
47 47
49
50
53
54
57
31
29 30 31
33 33
35
37
39
41
44
45
47 47
50
52
55
57
59 59
61
62
66
68
71
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013-p
2014-f
1990: Commercial Foodservice 75.0% of Total Foodservice
2014: Commercial Foodservice 80.1% of Total Foodservice
Commercial Foodservice Total Foodservice p = preliminary
f = forecast
8
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
11. 2013 Forecasted Share of Foodservice Sales by Sector ($millions)
Total Foodservice Commercial Foodservice
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc. and PKF Consulting
QSRs and FSRs generate relatively similar sales (about $25 billion each annually) and together
represent 87.3% of commercial foodservice sales and 70.0% of total foodservice sales.
$56,981.9
$5,886.0
$3,985.2
$1,229.4 $2,484.0
$25,177.3
$24,567.8
$4,869.3
$2,367.5
Total Commercial
Accommodation
foodservice
Institutional foodservice
Retail foodservice
Other foodservice
Quick-service restaurants
Full-service restaurants
Contract and social
caterers
Drinking places
3 | Foodservice Industry Profile
9
12. 100.0
102.3
99.4
100.3 100.3
102.9
106.0
101.5
97.3
96.1 95.9
98.5
102.2
104.0 103.5
106.9 107.4
111.0
113.8
100.9
94.4
98.8
101.2
104.2
107.5
99.0
95.5
90.1
83.9
81.6
80.6
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-p
Real Sales Index 2007 = 100
Total Commercial Full-Service Restaurants Quick-Service Restaurants Caterers Drinking Places
Growth trends vary by sector. The following graph compares the real sales indices (adjusted for
inflation; 2007 real sales = 100) of various commercial foodservice sectors.
Sales Index by Industry Segment
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc.
As shown, FSR real sales have returned to pre-recession levels. QSR real sales continue to increase
and are now almost 14% greater than in 2007.
Sales for drinking places continue to decline due largely to a reduction of the number of
establishments classifying themselves as drinking places. Many such operations have been
reclassified as FSRs.
Much of the observed growth may be attributed to the significant increase in the number of
commercial foodservice units in 2013. The commercial foodservice industry grew by 7,401 units (9%)
in 2013; however, average real sales per unit has fallen by almost 6% as unit expansion rates exceed
real sales growth rates.
10
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
13. 3.2 Chain versus Independent Operator Sales
The chart below graphically depicts the share of chain and independent restaurant expenditures in
various regions of Canada for 2013.
Chain versus Independent Restaurant Expenditures – 2013
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®
As shown, 62.2% of the expenditure in restaurants in Canada is in branded local, regional, national
and international chains. Quebec has the greatest percentage of independent expenditures, with
almost half of all restaurant sales unaffiliated with chains.
69.4%
51.6%
65.4% 63.2% 62.2%
30.6%
48.4%
34.6% 36.8% 37.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CanadaWestOntarioQuebecAtlantic
Chain Restaurants Independent Restaurants
11
3 | Foodservice Industry Profile
14. 3.3 Provincial Sales Trends
Canadian Commercial Foodservice Sales by Province – 2008 through 2013
Canada
Newfoundland
andLabrador
PrinceEdward
Island
NovaScotia
New
Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British
Columbia
Revenues (thousands)
2008 $46,795,255 $565,006 $176,233 $1,210,275 $891,334 $9,304,854 $17,593,324 $1,290,495 $1,287,297 $6,618,399 $7,709,844
2009 $47,096,429 $588,886 $175,136 $1,209,506 $938,700 $9,385,175 $17,631,848 $1,338,637 $1,356,991 $6,526,605 $7,795,980
2010 $48,616,283 $644,086 $184,145 $1,252,019 $968,838 $9,715,759 $18,381,418 $1,369,856 $1,428,570 $6,665,414 $7,846,102
2011 $50,023,975 $679,708 $187,481 $1,275,087 $962,206 $9,906,542 $19,159,000 $1,440,093 $1,506,167 $7,082,169 $7,662,998
2012 $52,570,103 $738,905 $194,219 $1,321,404 $982,459 $10,405,241 $20,137,078 $1,516,565 $1,620,509 $7,678,116 $7,814,123
2013-p $54,964,363 $807,406 $203,153 $1,332,674 $986,566 $10,690,273 $21,005,189 $1,599,598 $1,737,410 $8,156,486 $8,276,882
Percent Change vs Previous Year
2008 4.8% 6.1% 3.2% 8.6% 5.3% 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 10.2% 3.3% 1.3%
2009 0.6% 4.2% -0.6% -0.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3.7% 5.4% -1.4% 1.1%
2010 3.2% 9.4% 5.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 4.3% 2.3% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6%
2011 2.9% 5.5% 1.8% 1.8% -0.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.1% 5.4% 6.3% -2.3%
2012 5.1% 8.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.1% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 7.6% 8.4% 2.0%
2013-p 4.6% 9.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.7% 4.3% 5.5% 7.2% 6.2% 5.9%
Canadian Commercial Foodservice Sales by Province – 2008 through 2013
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc.
As shown, at 9.3% growth in 2013, Newfoundland and Labrador was the fastest growing provincial
market, followed by Saskatchewan which grew by 7.2%. Ontario accounts for 38.2% of total
commercial foodservice sales.
12
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
15. As shown, Ontario and Quebec have the greatest commercial foodservice sales, driven primarily
by larger populations. Commercial foodservice sales per capita in Saskatchewan, Ontario and
Newfoundland and Labrador approximately match the national average. Alberta continues to have
the greatest commercial foodservice sales per capita ($2,026) followed by British Columbia ($1,806).
Manitoba has the lowest per capita commercial foodservice sales ($1,264).
Source: Restaurants Canada, fsSTRATEGY Inc. and Statistics Canada
The following table compares total commercial foodservice sales and commercial foodservice sales
per capita by province.
2013 Commercial Foodservice Sales and Commercial Foodservice Per Capita by Province
807.4
203.2
1,332.7 986.6
10,690.3
21,005.2
1,599.6 1,737.4
8,156.5 8,276.9
$1,532.95
$1,398.77
$1,304.90
$1,310.83
$1,551.57
$1,264.49
$1,567.63
$2,026.42
$1,806.40
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
National Commercial Foodservice
Sales Per Capita
2013 Commercial Foodservice Sales 2013 Commercial Foodservice Sales Per Capita
NationalAverage Per Capita Spend
NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
$1,416.55
PerCapitaSalesinDollars
SalesinMillionsofDollars
13
3 | Foodservice Industry Profile
16. Same Store Sales Growth 2007 through 2013, Selected Publicly-Traded Restaurant Chains
3.1%
1.8%
-2.5%
1.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.1%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013
Source: Company annual and quarterly reports.
1.
Selected publicly traded Canadian chains. 2013 data year-to-date 2nd or 3rd quarter results.
As the exhibits demonstrate, SSSG declined significantly through the economic recession. A gradual
recovery ensued in 2010 and 2011. However, SSSG declined in 2012 and again in 2013, underlining the
fragility of the economic recovery and potentially signaling issues around market saturation.
Same Store Sales Growth Percentage
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Minimum -3.9% -1.2% -6.5% -1.7% -0.1% -1.2% -3.1%
Average 3.1% 1.8% -2.5% 1.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1%
Maximum 5.9% 7.3% 2.9% 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 2.1%
Source: Annual reports.
1
2013 YTD 3rd Quarter
The average SSSG for the selected Canadian restaurant chains is graphically represented below.
Average Same Store Sales Growth 2007 through 2013, Selected Publicly-Traded
Restaurant Chains
3.4 Same Store Sales Growth
Same Store Sales Growth (“SSSG”) is a measure of the performance of restaurant chains year-over-
year, comparing for the same base of stores from one year to the next on a rolling basis. The table
below provides an average of SSSG from 2007 to 2013 for the largest Canadian publicly-traded
restaurant chains. Data from 2013 has been taken from either annual reports or Q3 reports as
available by chain.
14
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
14
18. 16
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
3.5 C-Suite Expectations for Sales and Traffic
Once again, fsSTRATEGY has completed a survey of Canadian foodservice executives to gain their
insights on the state of the industry for the Canadian Restaurant Investment Summit and to capture
opinions and industry forecasts from Canada’s industry leaders. Twenty-one percent of the brands
that were invited to participate responded. Responses from the C-Suite survey have been included
throughout this book.
Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were asked how they expected industry sales and traffic to change
in 2013.
In 2014 Compared to 2013, Sales are Expected to:
Decline more than 10% 0%
Decline 7.6% to 10% 0%
Decline 5.1% to 7.5% 5%
Decline 2.6% to 5% 0%
Decline 0.1% to 2.5% 14%
Remain Flat 14%
Increase 0.1% to 2.5% 50%
Increase 2.6% to 5% 14%
Increase 5.1% to 7.5% 0%
Increase 7.6% to 10% 0%
Increase more than 10% 5%
In 2014 Compared to 2013, Traffic is Expected to:
Decline more than 10% 0%
Decline 7.6% to 10% 0%
Decline 5.1% to 7.5% 5%
Decline 2.6% to 5% 5%
Decline 0.1% to 2.5% 14%
Remain Flat 36%
Increase 0.1% to 2.5% 41%
Increase 2.6% to 5% 0%
Increase 5.1% to 7.5% 0%
Increase 7.6% to 10% 0%
Increase more than 10% 0%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. C-Suite Survey
19. Most respondents (50%) expect industry sales to increase by up to 2.5% in 2014 with 14% expecting
growth of between 2.6% and 5%. In last year’s study, respondents were more positive with 60% of
respondents expected sales to increase by 0.1% to 2.5% and 30% expecting revenues to increase by
2.6% to 5% in 2013. Thirty-six percent of respondents expect industry traffic to remain flat in 2014
and 41% expect traffic to grow by up to 2.5%. Respondents to the 2014 survey were more positive
than 2013 respondents with respect to industry traffic with 41% expecting traffic to increase by up
to 2.5%. Once again this year, the survey strongly suggests that revenue increases will depend on
operators’ ability to increase average cheques.
Approximately 40% of respondents to Restaurant Canada’s Restaurant Outlook Survey for Q4 2013
experienced a decrease in year-over-year same store sales and one quarter of respondents feel
that same store sales will decrease in the next six months; although, based on historical results,
Restaurants Canada suggests this decrease may reflect seasonality.
17
3 | Foodservice Industry Profile
21. 4.1 Opportunities
C-Suite Survey participants were asked to list the three greatest opportunities in the foodservice
industry for 2014. Responses were grouped into common categories.
Greatest Opportunities for the Canadian Foodservice Industry, 2014
Opportunity 2013 2014 Change
Menu - innovation, more choice, improved ingredient quality, flavour 27% 27% à
Concept - fast casual, premium, non-traditional, home meal replacement,
retail grocery, differentiation
13% 17% á
Beverage - bar and beverage programs, craft distilled spirits, happy hour 0% 10% á
Location - suburban, strong regional economies, international 4% 10% á
Competition - consolidation, leveraging competitor failures 15% 7% â
Marketing - building loyalty/repeat business, social media 12% 7% â
Target market - millennials, day part growth 0% 7% á
Catering and special events 0% 5% á
Service consistency and quality 6% 5% â
Procurement - bulk purchasing initiatives 0% 2% á
Technology 2% 2% à
Financing - availability, low interest rates 2% 0% â
Cost Efficiencies 6% 0% â
Market Growth - Sales, growth, increased traffic 6% 0% â
Facilities - smaller footprints, construction 6% 0% â
Economic Stability 2% 0% â
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
Compared to 2013, menu innovation and refinement has remained as the single largest opportunity.
Concept refinement, increased attention to bar and beverage programs and seeking out new and
different locations (e.g., suburban, strong regional economies and international locations) are top-
of-mind with executives. Executives remain focused on differentiating from the competitors and
taking advantage of competitor failures but to a slightly lesser extent than last year. Clearly, the
opportunities for the industry as seen by the industry leaders are more refined and more proactive
than in the past 12 months.
19
4 | Top-of-Mind What CEOs Think
22. 4.2 Challenges
Survey participants were asked to list the three greatest challenges in the foodservice industry for
2014. Responses were grouped into common categories.
Greatest Challenges for the Canadian Foodservice Industry, 2014
Challenge 2013 2014 Change
Operating costs 33% 50% á
Labour costs, productivity 12% 26% á
Cost of goods sold 9% 17% á
Rent 3% 5% á
General 8% 2% â
Sites - finding sites 0% 17% á
Economy - US dollar, availability of financing 11% 9% â
Competition - more dense, growing 9% 7% â
Sales 2% 7% á
Availability of franchisees 0% 3% á
Human resources - retention and availability 0% 3% á
Service - improving quality 1% 2% á
Nutritional in formation requirements 0% 2% á
Competition from the United States 2% 0% â
Government Policy 3% 0% â
Food Safety 2% 0% â
Labour Issues - availability, quality 3% 0% â
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
Similar to 2013, operating costs continue to be the single greatest challenge for the participants,
with labour being the most commonly mentioned challenge. Not surprisingly, this is even more of a
challenge for executives this year in the face of rising minimum wages and labour shortages. Cost of
goods sold also increased in terms of percentage of responses while concern over rent only increased
marginally. Finding sites has become the second biggest issue for operators as a limited supply of
prime locations is being aggressively targeted by competitors. Economic conditions remain a concern,
evidence again of the stalled economic recovery in Canada.
20
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
23. 4.3 Biggest Changes
4.3.1 Short-Term Changes
C-Suite Survey participants were asked what they thought would be the biggest short-term changes
in the foodservice industry.
In 2013, participants cited intensifying competition, industry consolidation, increasing specialization of
menus and the growth of social media as an influencer in success.
This year, participants continued the themes of intensifying competition and industry consolidation.
Competition is expected to grow in smaller markets and operators continue to expect entries into the
market by US chains. Participants believe there will be further mergers, acquisitions and closures in
the chain restaurant industry in Canada. Some operators also suggest that independent restaurants
will recapture market share they have been losing to the chains, especially in the premium casual
market.
New this year, operators suggested that they expect consumer confidence to improve somewhat, yet
consumers will have even higher value expectations.
Finally, operators expect labour shortages to persist, regulation to tighten, real estate costs to rise
and availability to be limited and supply management to continue to burden cost of goods sold.
4.3.2 Long-Term Changes
C-Suite Survey participants were asked what they thought would be the biggest long-term changes in
the foodservice industry.
In 2013, participants cited contraction and redefinition, concept changes, technology and changing
consumer behaviour as baby boomers retire.
This year, participants reiterated their belief that the industry can expect more consolidation over the
long-term, suggesting that there are too many chains doing the same thing. Participants also echoed
the expectations of industry redefinition and concept changes. Of note, participants suggested the
following:
žž emergence of more fast casual concepts;
žž expansion of premium casual dining at the expense of fine and mid-scale family dining but with
higher consumer expectations of premium casual dining; and
žž FSRs getting out of the lunch business.
This year, while demographic changes as the population ages continue to be top-of-mind, operators
also mentioned growing population ethnicity as a long-term influencer of the industry.
Finally, labour shortages and rising labour costs are also expected to be long-term issues for our
industry.
21
4 | Top-of-Mind What CEOs Think
25. 4.4 Sustainability
Because sustainability has become such a prominent issue in the media, with consumers and
special interest groups, this year fsSTRATEGY asked C-Suite Survey participants to provide their
view on sustainability.
Participants were asked to rate the current level of importance of this issue for their chain.
Importance of Environmental Sustainability
Highly Important 0%
Important 60%
Neither Important nor Unimportant 35%
Unimportant 0%
Highly Unimportant 5%
Sixty percent of respondents indicated that environmental sustainability was important to their chain.
A further 35% indicated it was neither important nor unimportant.
Respondents that ranked environmental sustainability highly important or important, were asked to
indicate which of the following contributed to that level of importance.
Sustainability Contributions
Use of organic food 0%
Use of hormone and antibiotic free proteins 25%
Certified sustainable food/suppliers 35%
Sustainable operating practices 45%
Sustainable facilities design 45%
Other 10%
Other includes: Improved nutrition
Environmentally friendly packaging / paper products
Forty-five percent of the respondents indicated that sustainable operating practices (e.g., recycling,
composting, refillable consumer beverage and/or food containers) and sustainable facilities design
contributed to them rating sustainability important. Thirty-five percent of respondents indicated that
certified sustainable food/suppliers contributed to them rating sustainability important. Finally, 25%
of respondents indicated interest in hormone and antibiotic free proteins.
23
4 | Top-of-Mind What CEOs Think
27. 5.1 Key Consumer Profiles
5.1.1 Commercial Restaurant Traffic by Age Group
Canadians love using restaurants, but restaurant traffic did not grow in the past year. During 2013,
the percentage of Canadians aged 13+ that visited a restaurant daily decreased to 45%. Compared to
2012, fewer consumers have been eating out across all age groups, making restaurants challenged in
the Canadian foodservice market. While uncertain economic conditions appear to be a factor having
an impact on consumers eating out of home, Canadians still enjoy going out to restaurants to eat for
several reasons, such as family/friends getting together, convenience, and indulgence.
Many restaurants across Canada have been heavily focusing on attracting 18 to 34 year olds,
specifically known as “Millennials”, as their population growth is alluring to a foodservice industry
making slow gains.
5.1.2 Percentage Restaurant Sales Growth Quarter over Quarter
SON’10 DJF’11 MAM’11 JJA’11 SON’11 DJF’12 MAM’12 JJA’12 SON’12 DJF’13 MAM’13 JJA’13 SON’13
3%
1%
3%
3%
4%
5%
5%
4%
3%
1% 2%
4%
2%
Source: The NPD Group /CREST®
25
28. 5.2 Key Foodservice Industry Trends
While the Canadian foodservice industry is still in a fragile recovery as a result of the negative impacts
of the global crisis, the ‘battle for share’ environment continues to intensify across all restaurant
market segments. All provinces reflected a similar trend with visits remaining flat in the past five years.
With a +1% compound annual growth rate in foodservice visits since 2008 and -1% in the latest year,
the Canadian Restaurant Market remains a challenging environment particularly for the QSR segment
in Canada, which represents two thirds of visits. The QSRs that are winning in today’s market are those
that have capitalized on urbanization through improvements on restaurant décor that reflects an
upscale, casual image, as well as those who have an emphasis on menu innovation and promote the
concept of premium menu items.
Customer traffic to the QSR segment has been soft to flat since 2008 in most provinces; Alberta is the
only province exhibiting modest QSR traffic growth of +3% in the last five years.
The FSR segment, which represents 21% of all restaurant traffic continues to experience challenges in
attracting customers on a regular basis. Hardest hit since 2008, all provinces continue to experience
flat to declining customer traffic in this segment since.
During the past five years, Home Meal Replacement (“HMR”) has been one of the best performing
segments of the Canadian foodservice industry. Today, all of the top Grocery Stores are allocating
more resources to their HMR program in order to capture a greater share of consumers’ food dollar.
The challenge for Grocery Stores, similar to the greater challenges faced in the overall restaurant
market is that the volume of out of home prepared meals is expected to remain flat in 2014 versus
last year. Published in late 2013, NPD’s Exploring Untapped Opportunities at HMR report provides
a comprehensive study on how Grocery Stores can successfully increase customer traffic to their
HMR programs, which highlights the strategies that have helped QSR operators realize gains in this
challenging market.
Trends Analysis
Canada’s daypart sales share has experienced a slight change in distribution, which reflects the
changing eating habits of Canadians over the past five years. In particular, morning meal is the fastest
growing daypart in visits versus any other occasion. Success at morning meal is mainly driven by
QSR as a result of convenience, with a +3% compound annual growth since 2008. FSR faces morning
meal challenges with visits down -3% in the last five years. Core offerings such as coffee, breakfast
sandwiches, and muffins are supporting the morning meal success at QSR. QSR restaurants that play
a dominant role in the morning meal daypart are likely to continue to penetrate the existing habitual
preferences among Canadian morning meal consumers.
26
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
29. 5 | Trends Impacting Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group /CREST®
27
HMR Outpaced All Other Segments Over Last Five Years
5 | Trends Impacting Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group /CREST®
Source: The NPD Group /CREST®
Trends Analysis
Canada’s daypart sales share has experienced a slight change in distribution, which reflects the
changing eating habits of Canadians over the past five years. In particular, morning meal is the fastest
growing daypart in visits versus any other occasion . Success at morning meal is mainly driven by
QSR as a result of convenience, with a +3% compound annual growth since 2008 . FSR faces morning
meal challenges with visits down -3% in the last five years. Core offerings such as coffee, breakfast
sandwiches, and muffins are supporting the morning meal success at QSR. QSR restaurants that play
a dominant role in the morning meal daypart are likely to continue to penetrate the existing habitual
preferences among Canadian morning meal consumers .
PCYA = Percent Change vs. Year Ago
Growth
Rate
20132008Traffic Volume (Millions)6.66.5
Total Market
4.3
4.0
QSR
1.61.7
FSR
0.50.4
HMR
0.20.3
Convenience
1% -2%2%-1%1%
HMR Outpaced All Other Segments Over Last Five Years
Source: The NPD Group /CREST®
24% 26%
26% 26%
27% 25%
23% 23%
20132008
PM Snack
Supper
Lunch
Morning Meal
Daypart Distributon
30. 28
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
5.3 Looking Ahead
5.3.1 Population trends
Canada’s demographic environment continues to change with much of the population growth fueled
by immigration. The importance of immigration to Canada is put into context when compared to the
United States. For instance, over the next ten years, the net migration rate in Canada is forecasted to
be nearly 50 percent higher than our neighbours to the south. Immigration to Canada will continue to
come primarily from Asia, and though this represents a varied cross-section of groups from a cultural
and linguistic perspective, linkages among these groups surface when compared to the population.
Visible minorities skew younger and newcomers are more likely to live in a larger household. Given the
younger age and larger household size of this population segment, newcomers can be considered a
prime growth target.
31. 29
Source: Statistics Canada
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Europe Asia Australasia
United States, West Indies Africa Central America & Other N.A.
South America
Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13
Population Projection, by Visible Minority Group
Immigrants to Canada, by Country of Last Permanent Residence
2006 2031
Chinese
South Asian
Black
Filipino
Latin American
Southeast Asian
Arab
West Asian
Korean
Japanese
Other visible minorities
Source: Statistics Canada
5 | Trends Impacting Restaurants
32. Average After-Tax Income (000s), by Economic Family Type
78
59
81
76
88
109
45
32
79
58
82
76
89
115
46
33
79
58
83
76
89
116
48
33
79
58
83
75
91
114
48
33
80
58
84
76
94
115
45
31
Economic
families, two
persons or
more
Elderly
families (2)
Non-elderly
families (3)
Married
couples
Two-parent
families with
children
Married
couples with
other
relatives
Lone-parent
families
Unattached
individuals
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Statistics Canada
30
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
33. Population (000s) by Broad Age Groups 2011 for the Six Largest CMAs
5.3.2 Excerpts from “The Future of Foodservice” – NPD’s five-year forecast for the Canadian
market and Eating Patterns in Canada (EPIC)
Published in 2012, the Future of Foodservice report forecasts consumer information on restaurant
segments, food & beverage categories, and visit situations, to 2016. Other Ethnic entrées (other than
Chinese and Italian) are identified as one of the strongest growing opportunities, and is anticipated
to grow by nearly +3% per year until 2016. Continued growth of the population, primarily through
immigration, supports further development of ethnic choices at restaurants. Tastes will continue to
become more adventurous, with ethnic flavours and dishes trickling down to the mainstream.
According to NPD’s Eating Patterns in Canada report, the challenge for restaurants is that over three
quarters of Canadians consider having “ethnic” food in the home. While Chinese and Italian foods
rank as the favourites for Canadians, consideration is high at over 20% for other different ethnic-
inspired foods. As Canadians are considering a variety of ethnic-inspired foods as part of their norm,
restaurants need to fortify a point of difference as consumers are continually exposed to more options
that compete for the same share of wallet.
Source: Statistics Canada
988
635
356
241 221 214
4,187
2,748
1,742
988 922 917
572
436
252
100 107 129 212 163 93 35 39 45
Toronto
(Ont.)
Montréal
(Que.)
Vancouver
(B.C.)
Calgary
(Alta.)
Edmonton
(Alta.)
Ottawa -
Gatineau
(Ont.)
0 to 14 years
15 to 64 years
65 years to 79 years
80 years and over
5 | Trends Impacting Restaurants
31
34. Finance
6.1 The Economy
6.2 Global Financial Markets
6.3 Financial Markets in Canada
6.4 Total Financeable Debt Market Size and Loan Volumes
6
32
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
35. 6.1 The Economy
The following chart compares total real foodservice sales growth against two economic indicators:
real disposable income growth and real GDP growth.
The table illustrates a relationship between real foodservice sales, real GDP and real disposable
income. A moderate correlation exists between changes in real GDP and real foodservice sales and
between real disposable income and real foodservice sales. Comparing 1991 and 2009 suggests that
real disposable income could have a shielding effect on foodservice sales during time of recession. In
1991, both GDP and disposable income declined simultaneously, and foodservice sales fell by 15%.
Despite a greater decrease than GDP in 2009 (compared to 1991), real disposable income still grew
slightly and the decrease in foodservice sales was less than 5%.
Total Foodservice Real Growth versus Real Disposable Income Growth and Real GDP Growth
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Restaurant and Foodservices Association, and TD Economics Conference
Board of Canada
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013-p
2014-f
Year-Over-YearPercentageChange
Real Foodservice Sales-Total Real Disposable Income Real GDP
33
6 | Finance
36. 6.2 Global Financial Markets
The positive outlook of the 2014 global economy is shaped by key trends: US, Japan and the
Eurozone are experiencing their first synchronized expansion since 2010, supporting global growth
in 2014; consumer confidence is increasing in North America; and financial markets are stabilizing in
developing economies with China’s strong 7.5% GDP growth target for this year.
But while strong, China’s growth will be an important support for the global economy in 2014, debt
has grown quickly and rebalancing the economy has a long way to go. Also, escalating geopolitical
tensions in East Asia and the fast-changing new developments in Ukraine could have substantial
economic repercussions that disrupt growth and trade.
Central banks will maintain loose monetary policies to combat deflationary pressures and the
European Central Bank (ECB) will ease money supply further at a time when the US Fed considers
tapering. The Euro is up by 3% since January, which reduces the ability of Eurozone peripheral
countries to benefit from export boom to offset the decline in domestic demand.
The growing importance of liquidity of financial markets will continue to drive swings in assets and
commodity prices. In 2013, commodities underperformed developed market equities for the third
consecutive year, following ten years of outperformance; slowing China growth, US Fed tightening and
rising supply expectations were the main factors weighing on prices. But 2014 could be a turnaround
year as a slight increase in metal prices could be expected and oil and gas prices are likely to remain
range-bound providing tactical trade opportunities.
Policy response such as tightening rates in emerging markets (EM) in 2013, market volatility and
capital flow exposed some weaknesses, especially in India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey leaving
less room for fiscal stimulus; fiscal balances deteriorated in most EMs since the onset of the global
financial crisis, while the social pressure to expand government spending remained.
The global equities market continues to recover, showing overall better performance in 2013 in
comparison to 2012. The best performers in last three months have been Japan, US, Germany and
France. Japan boosted stock prices in the fourth quarter of 2013 supported by a stronger Yen but
emerging market currencies lost ground. The broadly held view that 2014 would be the year of
equities, with bonds doomed by the taper-driven rise in yields has already hit the first road bump. The
following chart shows the current trends of the main stock markets by region.
34
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
37. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
All Commodities Industrials Materials Food Crude Oil
Commodity Prices, IMF Indices
January 2000 = 100
International Stock Market Trends
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Index(Jan2011=100)
MI
Italy
CAC 40
France
Hang Seng
China
Bovespa
Brazil
NIKKEI
Japan
AX 20
Australia
Dax
Germany
FTSE
UK
Dow Jones
US
S&P
US
MexBol
Mexico
IBEX
Spain
North AmericaLatin AmericaEuropeAsia Pacific
Source: GE Market Intelligence Network
In the commodities market, while metal prices declined significantly in 2013, energy and food prices
increased slightly. Most commodities appear likely to remain in a soft patch in the next 12 months with
the exception of several food products such as corn, coffee and wheat.
Commodity Prices (International Monetary Fund Index)
Source: International Monetary Fund
35
6 | Finance
38. Commodities Percentage Change Year-Over-Year
Source: GE Capital
International crude oil prices were relatively stable to start the year. The uncertainty surrounding
future economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, as a result of the Federal
Reserve winding down its long-term asset purchase program (quantitative easing), has not had a
large effect on crude oil prices. Crude oil price strength in the face of potentially slower future global
economic growth may reflect the perceived willingness of OPEC swing producers to cut supply and
support prices should global liquid fuel demand weaken. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
expects Brent crude oil price to average $104.68 per barrel this year and $100.92 per barrel in 2015.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Commodities percentage change year over year
Jan-01
Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
36
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
39. Crude Oil Prices (Price per Barrel) Since 2000
Source: GE Capital & EIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul-00
Jul-12
$US Dollars
Brent Crude Oil Price Per Barrel
37
6 | Finance
40. 6.3 Financial Markets in Canada
Analysis
The Europe and US economic recovery will benefit Canada’s near-term economic outlook and the
stability of its financial markets. The domestic demand is improving, the unemployment rate is falling,
the Purchasing Manager’s index increasing and business confidence is up. However, high tensions and
geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Ukraine) are tempering global economic optimism in 2014.
Concerns about the high level of Canadian household debt is still persisting, so a rise in the base
interest rate would be troublesome because so much debt is tied to mortgages and could cause a
sudden deleveraging.
The Bank of Canada held firm on keeping its interest rate at 1% as an incentive to increase investment
and exports as foreign demand strengthens and uncertainty diminishes. With an inflation rate close
to 2% and the economy expanding, GE Capital expects that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates
steady until the end of 2014.
Since October last year, the Canadian dollar lost 6.8% against the US dollar driven by soft exports, a
limited shift toward business investment, and US Fed’s stance. As the US recovery builds, and exports
and investment improve, GE Capital expects the Canadian dollar to stabilize.
Forecast
Although Canada’s overall export growth rates were below expectations in 2013, the Canadian
economy rebounded at 2.9% GDP growth on a quarter to quarter basis annualized in the fourth
quarter, representing 2% on an annual basis; the oil extraction and mining sectors showed the
strongest growth supporting the GDP’s increase. In 2014, strong increases in investment will
be expected in transportation and warehousing, housing and public administration sectors.
Geographically, total capital investment is anticipated to increase in six of 13 provinces and territories
in 2014. Alberta anticipates the largest increase to support the oil and gas industry.
Despite the unexpected decrease of employment in January, the Canadian unemployment rate will
continue to be close to 7% with a moderated wage growth in the next three years that will help to
keep prices in line as the Canadian government holds the interest rate steady during 2014.
GE Capital sees Canada’s GDP growth picking up to 2.3% in 2014 based on recovery of US, China and
Europe, increased government investment and the weak Canadian dollar that will boost Canadian
exports.
The US economy is forecasted to grow by almost 4% in 2014 with the labour market improving, US
consumer confidence growing, steady gasoline prices and increasing US housing starts.
38
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
41. Canada—GDP Growth
Source: GE Capital
In January, yields on 10-year US Treasuries decreased to 2.74% from 3.0% at the end of last year, as a
result of Fed’s tightening monetary policy. The factors influencing policy interest rates in 2014 for G5
countries include:
žž the Central Bank’s easing of monetary policy to encourage investors and business to take
more risk;
žž China reforms including changing the housing registration system, relaxing the one child policy
and pursuing financial sector liberalization to tighten liquidity;
žž potential increase in inflation in the US; and
žž policy clarity.
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
Canada: GDP Growth (%YOY)
39
6 | Finance
42. G5 Average Policy Interest Rates
Source: GE Capital
Note: The G5 economies include the United States, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6% Mar-00
Nov-01
Jul-01
Mar-02
Nov-02
Jul-03
Mar-04
Nov-04
Jul-05
Mar-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Mar-08
Nov-08
Jul-09
Mar-10
Nov-10
Jul-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Jul-13
Mar-14
GE Average Policy Interest Rate
40
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
43. 6.4 Total Financeable Debt Market Size and Loan Volumes
The following charts summarize total financial debt in the Canadian restaurant industry by transaction
type and segment type as prepared by GE Capital. GE Capital estimates a total financeable debt of
$4.5 billion. Financeable debt is used for refinancing/renovations, acquisitions and new builds.
Total Financeable Debt by Transaction Type ($millions)
Total Financeable Debt by Transaction Type ($MM)
Source: GE Capital
Source: GE Capital
$4,488.1
$868.1
$1,077.7
$400.2
$421.5
$361.2
$351.3
$175.8 $62.6 $45.3 $12.7
Total
Market
QSR Coffee Casual Sandwich Pizza Asian Express ChickenFamily
Casual
Premium
Casual
$4,488.1
$2,394.9
$1,655.1
$438.2
Total Market Refinance/Renovation Acquisiton New Build
41
6 | Finance
44. Cost of
Doing
Business
7.1 Cost of Sales
7.2 Labour Costs
7.3 Rental and Occupancy Costs
7.4 Other Operating Costs
7.5 CAPEX
7
42
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
45. 7.1 Cost of Sales
Restaurant Canada’s 2013 Operations Report indicates that cost of goods sold represented 36.0% of
foodservice revenues in 2011 (the most recent year for which data is available).
Historical Average Cost of Goods Sold as a Percentage of Revenues
Cost of goods sold as a percentage of revenues remained unchanged from 2010 indicating that
foodservice operators were able to increase menu prices to match increased input costs.
35.4%
35.7%
35.5%
35.8%
36.0% 36.0%
34.0%
34.5%
35.0%
35.5%
36.0%
36.5%
37.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PercentageofSales
Cost of Sales
Source: Restaurants Canada “2013 Operations Report”
43
7 | Cost of Doing Business
46. The following chart tracks consumer price indices for various core ingredients classifications.
Consumer Price Indices
Bakery and cereal products, dairy products and meats have increased in price at a greater rate than
general inflation. Vegetables and vegetable preparation prices experienced the greatest increase in
2012, growing by 3.6% followed by eggs, which increased by 3.0%. Prices for alcoholic beverages
purchased from stores; vegetables and vegetable preparations; and fish, seafood and other marine
products have historically increased at a rate below general inflation.
The following chart compares menu price inflation (represented by the consumer price index for food
purchased in restaurants) to producer price indices for: meat, fish and dairy; beverages; and fruit,
vegetables and feed.
108.1 108.2
112
114.6
118.4 119.1
125.4
132
134.8
99.9
98.5
100.8 101.3
108.6
108.7
109
111.8
114.3
112.2
116.5
120.4
125
129.1
130.3
133.6
134.8
134.3
109.8
114.1
117.6
135.2
137.9 138.8
146
150.4
152.2
90.2
95
92
100.3
110.2 109.3
117.1
113.3
117.4
106.6
106.9
109.2 109.8
111.7 111.2 110.6
111.8
113.3
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20132012
Meat Fish, seafood and other marine products
Dairy products Bakery and cereal products
Vegetables and vegetable preparations Alcoholic beverages purchased from stores
CPI - All Items
CPI = Consumer Price Index
2002 = 100
Source: Statistics Canada
44
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
47. Menu Inflation versus Producer Price Indices
As shown, prices for food purchased from restaurants have increased consistently since 2005. While
producer prices for beverages, fruit, vegetables and feed have occasionally increased faster than food
purchased from restaurants, core product PPI’s are generally increasing at a slower rate than the price
of restaurant meals.
The following chart compares menu inflation (represented by the consumer price indices for food from
FSR, food from QSR and served alcohol) to general inflation (represented by the consumer price index
for all items).
Source: Statistics Canada
99.1
100.8
102.4
105.2
104.1
105.2
108.9
110.2
111.3
102
103.1
108.1
118.7 118.6
117.9
126.8
130.9
128.7
106.4
107.7
110.9
113.6
116.9
118.7
121.7
123.8 124.2
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
PPI= Producer Price Index
2002 = 100
2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PPI - Meat, Fish and Dairy PPI - Fruit, Vegetables and Feed
PPI - Beverages CPI - Food from Restaurants
45
7 | Cost of Doing Business
48. Menu Inflation versus General Inflation
As shown, prices for food and alcohol purchased in restaurants have increased at a greater rate and
with less variability than general inflation. Furthermore, unlike general inflation, menu prices did not
decline during the 2009 recession. FSR food prices have increased at a greater rate than QSR food
prices since 2002.
The University of Guelph’s Food Price Index 2014 forecasts that overall retail food prices will increase
by 0.3% to 2.6% with the greatest increase seen for fish and seafood (3.0% to 5.0%). 1
Respondents of the C-Suite Survey were asked how they expected cost of sales as a percentage of
revenues to change in 2014.
Source: Statistics Canada
1
Charlebois, S, Tapon, F., van Duren, E., von Massow, M., & Pinto, W. (2014) Food price index 2014. Guelph, ON:
109.1
111.7
115.2
118.8
121.8
124.9
128.4
131.7
133.7
107.5
109.2
113.6
115.9
119.4
121.9
125.5
128.0
130.1
131.3
107.7
109.5
111.9
115.7
114.4
116.5
119.9
121.7
122.8
CPI = Consumer Price Index
2002 = 100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20132012
CPI - Food from Full-Service Restaurants CPI - Food from Quick-Serivce Restaurants
CPI - Served Alcohol CPI - All Items
46
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
49. 2
Growers have been liquidating their herds over last seven years. 2013 saw the lowest
US calf production in North American since the 1950s. Similar declines have occurred in
Canada. Several US processing facilities could close in 2014 due to low supply.
47
In 2014, Cost of Sales as a Percentage of Revenues is Expected to:
Decline more than 2% points 0%
Decline 1.6% to 2% points 0%
Decline 1.1% to 1.5% points 0%
Decline 0.6% to 1% points 10%
Decline 0.1% to 0.5% points 0%
Remain flat 10%
Increase 0.1% to 0.5% points 33%
Increase 0.6% to 1% points 29%
Increase 1.1% to 1.5% points 5%
Increase 1.6% to 2% points 10%
Increase more than 2% points 5%
Not sure 0%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
The majority of respondents (80%) expect cost of sales as a percentage of revenues to increase in
2014. Thirty-three percent of respondents expect cost of sales to increase by 0.1% to 0.5% and 29%
expect cost of sales to increase by 0.6% to 1.0%. Respondents believe increases will be lower in 2014
than they anticipated in 2013.
fsSTRATEGY interviewed grower associations and government agencies to understand the factors
influencing foodservice cost of sales. Findings of this analysis included:
žž Wholesale demand for proteins in 2013 remained relatively flat. Growth for branded proteins
(e.g., signature beef) grew slightly while demand for commodity products (e.g., raw ground beef)
was slightly lower. Prices for beef increased in 2013. The demand for fresh fruits and vegetables
demand was strong in 2013.
žž Prices will continue to rise in 2014 due to rising input costs and, in the case of beef, declining North
American supply2
. International demand for North American beef is also increasing. Beef prices
are expected to rise in 2014. These dynamics will no doubt have an effect on demand in 2014.
Demand for fresh fruits and vegetables is expected to remain strong in 2014. Mexico appears to be
increasing production; however, drought conditions in California in the early part of the year may
affect supply and, as a result, operators could experience higher costs.
žž All growers that were interviewed cited shortage of labour, increasing minimum wages and rising
labour costs as factors that are contributing to the need for higher prices. Yet, if demand remains
flat, growers may be hard pressed to recover these costs.
7 | Cost of Doing Business
50. 7.2 Labour Costs
Restaurants Canada’s 2013 Operations Report indicates that salaries and wages represented 33.6%
of foodservice revenues in 2011 (the most recent year for which data is available).
Salaries and wages as a percentage of revenues in 2011 decreased slightly from 33.9% in 2009 and
2010 to 33.6% in 2011.
By the end of 2014, provincial and territorial minimum wages for adult workers will have increased by
15% from minimum wages at the end of 2009.
3
Operators will need to innovate with existing ingredients as opposed to using new producer products.
fsSTRATEGY also interviewed foodservice distributors to understand the factors influencing
foodservice cost of sales. Findings of this analysis included:
žž Foodservice distributors report demand in 2013 remained relatively flat compared to 2012.
The only growth experienced was from independent operators; chain demand remained flat.
Distributors did not see prices increase as much as expected, as some of the dire cost increases
that were predicted did not materialize from suppliers.
žž Distributors expect foodservice sales to grow by two to three percent in 2014, with a small amount
of traffic growth and the majority of growth coming through operator price increases. Weather
conditions in the early part of 2014 have dampened restaurant traffic. Some distributors hope
that the declining Canadian dollar will spur some additional cross border tourism and, therefore,
foodservice demand. Distributors are facing significant labour shortage issues and rising fuel costs.
Distributors expect price increases for their customers in 2014 will be at or just over inflation.
Distributors are working hard to absorb rising costs by introducing greater efficiency through
technological innovations and better route scheduling.
žž Distributors suggest that a number of issues will affect the foodservice industry in 2014. These
include:
žž continuing concern over supply-managed products and their effect on foodservice
operating costs;
žž limited product innovation on the part of food processors, leading to some limitations on
new product introduction by foodservice operators3
; and
žž continuing consolidation in both the food distribution and foodservice operator sectors.
48
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
51. 31.5%
33.6%
34.8%
33.9% 33.9%
33.6%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PercentageofSales
Salaries and Wages
Historical Average Labour Cost as a Percentage of Revenues
Provincial and Territorial Minimum Wage Rates (Year End 2014)
Saskatchewan
Alberta1
Quebec
PEI
NewBrunswick
NorthwestTerritories
Newfoundland
NovaScotia2
BritishColumbia
Manitoba
Ontario
Yukon3
Nunavut
Adult Workers $10.25 $9.75 $9.27 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $9.50 $10.35 $10.25 $10.40 $10.00 $11.00 $11.00
Liquor Servers/Workers
Receiving Gratuities
9.00 9.05 8.90 9.55
First Job/Entry Level 9.65
Students (Under 18) 10.30
Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
THIS TABLE IS CURRENT AS AT March 10 2014
1
Alberta’s minimum wage will be adjusted annually every April
2
Nova Scotia’s entry level minimum wage is for inexperienced workers (less than three months employed in the type of worked
they are hired to do
3
Yukon Territory increases minimum wage every April 1 based on the Consumer Price Index
http://srv116.services.gc.ca/dimt-wid/sm-mw/rpt2.aspx?lang=eng&dec=5
http://srv116.services.gc.ca/dimt-wid/sm-mw/menu.aspx?lang=eng
Source: Restaurants Canada, 2013 Operations Report
49
7 | Cost of Doing Business
52. By the end of 2014, Nunavut and Ontario will have the greatest adult minimum wage at $11.00 per
hour and the Yukon Territory will have the lowest adult minimum wage at $9.27 an hour.
Some provinces have experienced considerable increases in minimum wage in recent years, as shown
in the table below.
Current and Dates of Changes in Minimum Wage by Province
Jurisdic-
tion
Current 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Alberta
$9.75 01-Sep-07
$8.00
01-Apr-08
$8.40
01-Apr-09
$8.80
01-Sep-11
$9.40
01-Sep-12
$9.75
British
Columbia
$10.25 01-May-11
$8.75
01-Nov-11
$9.50
01-May-12
$10.25
Manitoba
$10.25 01-Apr-06
$7.60
01-Apr-07
$8.00
01-Apr-08
$8.50
01-May-09
$8.75
01-Oct-09
$9.00
01-Oct-10
$9.50
01-Oct-11
$10.00
01-Oct-12
$10.25
New
Brunswick
$10.00 01-Jan-06
$6.50
01-Jul-06
$6.70
05-Jan-07
$7.00
01-Jul-07
$7.25
31-Mar-08
$7.75
15-Apr-09
$8.00
01-Sep-09
$8.25
01-Apr-10
$8.50
01-Sep-10
$9.00
01-Apr-11
$9.50
01-Apr-12
$10.00
New-
foundland
and
Labrador
$10.00 01-Jan-06
$6.50
01-Jun-06
$6.75
01-Jan-07
$7.00
01-Oct-07
$7.50
01-Apr-08
$8.00
01-Jan-09
$8.50
01-Jul-09
$9.00
01-Jan-10
$9.50
01-Jul-10
$10.00
Northwest
Territories
$10.00 01-Apr-10
$9.00
01-Apr-11
$10.00
Nova
Scotia
$10.30 01-Apr-06
$7.15
01-May-07
$7.60
01-May-08
$8.10
01-Apr-09
$8.60
01-Apr-10
$9.20
01-Oct-10
$9.65
01-Oct-11
$10.00
01-Apr-12
$10.15
01-Apr-13
$10.30
01-Apr-14
$10.40
Nunavut
$11.00 05-Sep-08
$10.00
01-Jan-11
$11.00
Ontario
$10.25 01-Feb-06
$7.75
01-Feb-07
$8.00
31-Mar-08
$8.75
31-Mar-09
$9.50
31-Mar-10
$10.25
01-Jun-14
$11.00
Prince
Edward
Island
$10.00 01-Apr-06
$7.15
01-Apr-07
$7.50
01-May-08
$7.75
01-Oct-08
$8.00
01-Jun-09
$8.20
01-Oct-09
$8.40
01-Jun-10
$8.70
01-Oct-10
$9.00
01-Jun-11
$9.30
01-Oct-11
$9.60
01-Apr-12
$10.00
Quebec
$9.90 01-May-06
$7.75
01-May-07
$8.00
01-May-08
$8.50
01-May-10
$9.50
01-May-11
$9.65
01-May-12
$9.90
01-May-13
$10.15
01-May-14
$10.35
Saskat-
chewan
$9.50 01-Mar-06
$7.55
01-Mar-07
$7.95
01-Jan-08
$8.25
01-May-08
$8.60
01-May-09
$9.25
01-Sep-11
$9.50
Yukon
$10.30 01-May-06
$8.25
01-Apr-07
$8.37
01-Apr-08
$8.58
01-Apr-09
$8.89
01-Apr-10
$8.93
01-Apr-11
$9.00
01-Apr-12
$9.27
01-May-12
$10.30
Source: Canada Ministry of Labour
50
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
53. Employment Indices—All Industries, Foodservice and Employees per Foodservice Location
Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
As shown, employment in the commercial foodservice industry has grown at a faster rate than
national employment. The average number of employees per location has increased significantly
from 8.4 in 2003 to 11.1 in 2012 before dipping to 10.6 in 2013. The 2013 decline in employees
per location coincides with the significant increase (9%) in the number of commercial foodservice
locations.
104.1
105.4
107.3
109.9
111.7
109.9
111.4
113.1
114.4
115.9
101.4
103.5
109.0
109.2
111.6
109.2
112.7
119.1
121.1
116.9 118.6
98.0
102.0
110.3
117.4
123.7 123.9
124.7
128.7
130.3
124.5
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Employment Index - All Industries Employment Index - Commercial Foodservice
Commercial Foodservice Employees per Location
2002 = 100
20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20132012
51
7 | Cost of Doing Business
54. 6.8%
7.0%
7.2% 7.2%
7.6%
7.7%
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
Rental and leasing
PercentageofSales
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.3 Rental and Occupancy Costs
Restaurants Canada’s 2013 Operations Report indicates that rental and leasing costs accounted for
7.7% of foodservice revenues in 2011 (the most recent year for which data is available).
Historical Average Rental and Leasing Cost as a Percentage of Revenues
Source: Restaurants Canada,
2012 Operations Report
52
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were asked how they expected labour cost as a percentage of
revenues to change in 2013.
In 2014 compared to 2013, Labour Cost are Expected to:
Decline more than 2% points 0%
Decline 1.6% to 2% points 0%
Decline 1.1% to 1.5% points 0%
Decline 0.6% to 1% points 5%
Decline 0.1% to 0.5% points 0%
Remain flat 0%
Increase 0.1% to 0.5% points 41%
Increase 0.6% to 1% points 27%
Increase 1.1% to 1.5% points 18%
Increase 1.6% to 2% points 9%
Increase more than 2% points 0%
Not sure 0%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
Most respondents (95%) expect labour cost as a percentage of revenues to increase in 2014. Forty-one
percent of respondents expect labour cost as a percentage of revenues to increase by 0.1% to 0.5%.
55. Rental and leasing costs as a percentage of revenues increased by 0.1 percentage points in 2011
compared to 2010.
Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were asked how they expected rent and occupancy cost as a
percentage of revenues to change in 2014.
53
In 2014 Compared to 2013, Rent & Occupancy Costs are Expected to:
Decline more than 2% points 0%
Decline 1.6% to 2% points 0%
Decline 1.1% to 1.5% points 0%
Decline 0.6% to 1% points 0%
Decline 0.1% to 0.5% points 0%
Remain flat 32%
Increase 0.1% to 0.5% points 14%
Increase 0.6% to 1% points 23%
Increase 1.1% to 1.5% points 9%
Increase 1.6% to 2% points 9%
Increase more than 2% points 14%
Not sure 0%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
Respondents’ opinions on how rent and occupancy costs were expected to change as a percentage
of revenues varied. Thirty-two percent of respondents believe rents will remain flat in 2014 (perhaps
many of these are locked into leases with no changes). The balance of respondents (68%) indicated
they believe rents will increase. Twenty-three percent of respondents believe rents will increase by
0.6% to 1.0% of revenue.
fsSTRATEGY interviewed landlords to understand the factors affecting rental trends and expenses for
restaurants in Canada. Findings from these interviews included:
žž The supply of leasable premises for foodservice has not increased dramatically over the past five
years. Major mall development has been nominal during this period. Landlords have new projects
in development now but that supply will not enter the market for 18 to 24 months. The new
destination mall inventory is expected to offer a substantially improved shopping experience for
consumers. Premiumization of mall products, décor and services, aligned with mall positioning,
may increase mall visitation. Landlords are seeking to balance differentiated foodservice concepts
with those that are familiar to and expected by consumers. Differentiation can come from local
brands with a local following, innovation by existing chains and new market entrants from the US
and elsewhere.
53
7 | Cost of Doing Business
56. 7.4 Other Operating Costs
Other operating costs include utilities (including telephone), repair and maintenance, advertising and
promotion, depreciation and other operating costs.
Restaurants Canada’s 2013 Operations Report indicates that total other operating costs represented
18% of foodservice sales in 2011. The following table shows the average other operating costs as a
percentage of revenues for the most recent five year period available (2007 to 2011).
žž Landlords report demand for foodservice space continues to rise. Demand for 1,500 to 3,000
square foot spaces from US chains testing the Canadian market is prevalent. Western Canadian
chains are exploring Eastern Canada sites with greater interest. Some operators are beginning to
favour the economics of regional as opposed to destination malls.
žž Landlords indicate that while foodservice leasing rates are climbing due to market dynamics;
compared to retail leasing, prices are relatively attractive. In addition, foodservice operators are
demanding greater tenant inducements. Landlords confirm that there is very little good space left
in urban areas.
žž Landlords reported that leasing prices rose anywhere between 2% and 6% in 2013, depending
on regional economic and market conditions. Increases in Alberta and Saskatchewan were at the
higher end of the range. Landlords expect price increases in 2014 to track similarly, but perhaps
slightly less in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Time strapped consumers are aggregating their shopping and dining experiences. In addition to
ongoing demand for new quick service concepts, fast casual dining (modified counter service) and
premium casual dining concepts with healthy food options are in high demand from consumers.
Operators able to offer differentiated concepts of these types will have an advantage in gaining lease
space.
While the leasing market clearly favours landlords, opportunities exist for foodservice operators who
can respond to these trends.
54
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
57. 50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Repair and maintenance Utilities including telephone Advertising and promotion
Depreciation Other Total Other Operating Costs
2007 2008 2009 20112010
2005=100
Historical Average Other Operating Costs as a Percentage of Revenues
Historical Average Other Operating Costs as a Percentage of Revenues
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Repair and Maintenance 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
Utilities Including Telephone 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
Advertising and Promotion 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Depreciation 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9%
Other 8.6% 7.0% 7.4% 6.7% 7.6%
Total Other Operating Costs 19.7% 18.1% 18.6% 18.0% 18.5%
Source: Restaurants Canada, Statistics Canada
As shown, other expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased between 2007 and 2011 (the most
recent year for which data is available).
The following chart tracks growth trends of various other operating costs as indices between 2007
and 2011.
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. based on data from Restaurants Canada and Statistics Canada
1
Other expenses include commissions paid to non-employees, professional and business service fees, subcontract expenses,
charges for services provided by head office, office supplies, insurance, travel and entertainment, property and business
taxes, licenses, permits, royalties and franchise fees, delivery, warehousing, postage and courier, financial service fees, interest
expense, and bad debts.
55
58. 100.0
85.4
99.1
58.3
45.3
40.2
31.5
36.7
100.0
90.9
101.8
105.5
116.4
129.1
134.5
150.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2006=100
Natural Gas Electricity
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Energy Commodity Price Indices
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. based on data from the Ontario Energy Board
As shown, natural gas prices, which have declined steadily since 2008 increased by 5.2 index points in
2013. Electricity prices continue to increase significantly, growing by 16.4 index points in 2013.
Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were asked how they expected other operating costs as a
percentage of revenues to change in 2014.
As shown, utilities, and advertising and promotion cost ratios have maintained at 2005 levels.
Depreciation and repairs and maintenance costs ratios declined slightly in 2011 but are still greater
than 2005.
The following graph compared commodity prices for natural gas and electricity.
56
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
59. 57
In 2014 Compared to 2013, Other Operating Costs are Expected to:
Decline more than 2% points 0%
Decline 1.6% to 2% points 0%
Decline 1.1% to 1.5% points 0%
Decline 0.6% to 1% points 0%
Decline 0.1% to 0.5% points 0%
Remain flat 29%
Increase 0.1% to 0.5% points 48%
Increase 0.6% to 1% points 5%
Increase 1.1% to 1.5% points 10%
Increase 1.6% to 2% points 5%
Increase more than 2% points 5%
Not sure 5%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
As shown, most (71%) of respondents expect other operating costs as a percentage of revenues will
increase in 2014, while 29% expect the cost ratio will remain flat.
7 | Cost of Doing Business
60. 7.5 CAPEX
Capital expenditure (“CAPEX”) in the accommodation and foodservice sector was approximately
$3.8 billion in 2013, down $182.7 million from 2012. Approximately $2.4 billion (62%) CAPEX was
spent on construction projects. The following chart compares capital expenditure and construction
expenditure in the accommodation and foodservice sector for the last nine years.
$2,640.2 $2,604.1
$2,911.3
$3,288.0
$4,032.8
$3,320.9
$3,688.8
$4,032.5
$3,849.8
$1,508.6
$1,786.2 $1,853.2
$2,278.3
$2,732.6
$2,220.4 $2,256.7
$2,445.7 $2,378.6
$1,131.6
$817.9
$1,058.1 $1,009.7
$1,300.2
$1,100.4
$1,432.1
$1,586.8
$1,471.2
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20132012
MillionsofDollars
Total Capital Expenditure Capital Expenditures for Construction
Capital Expenditure on Equipment and Machinery
As shown, the 2009 recession had a significant impact on capital expenditure. Expenditures on
equipment and machinery were affected less by the 2009 recession than construction and recovered
to pre-recession levels within two years, but declined slightly in 2013. Construction expenditures have
yet to return to pre-recession levels and are also down slightly from 2012.
Source: Statistics Canada
Capital Expenditure in the Accommodation and Foodservice Sector
58
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
61. As shown, construction costs declined significantly in 2009, most likely due to competitive pricing
efforts to capture declining demand during the recession. Since 2009, prices have increased albeit at
a slower rate than pre-recession. The 2013 non-residential price index was 152.1 – 3.8 index points
below the peak in 2008 and 1.4 index points greater than 2012.
117.0
126.5
138.7
155.9
142.0
141.4
146.6
150.7
152.1
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Construction Price Index: Total Non-Residential
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20132012
2002 = 100
The following chart illustrates the changes to non-residential construction price indices over the most
recent eight years.
Source: Statistics Canada
Non-Residential Construction Price Index
59
7 | Cost of Doing Business
62. The following chart compares average construction cost indices for major Canadian cities against
a 30-city United States average.
RSMeans Construction Cost Indices by Major Canadian City
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Toronto Calgary Montreal Vancouver Winnipeg 30 City US Average
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014e2013
1993 30 City US Average = 100
Source: RSMeans Square Foot Costs 2014. Copyright RSMeans, Norwell, MA 781-422-5000; All rights reserved
As shown, construction costs in each of the major Canadian cities continue to increase steadily. Cost
ranking between cities remains unchanged from 2012 with Calgary having the greatest cost index
and Winnipeg having the lowest cost index. All Canadian cities in the analysis exceed the 30-city
United States average; however, Winnipeg’s slowed increase may position the city at or below the 30-
city United States average in the future.
60
2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
63. Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were asked to provide the average cost per square foot to
construct a new unit excluding base building cost and land purchases.
C-Suite – Building Cost per Square Foot
Service Style Minimum Maximum Average
Fast Casual $250 $388 $319
Full Service $180 $550 $304
Quick Service $125 $1,100 $380
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
As shown, building costs range from $125 to $1,100 per square foot (clearly concept dependent, with
the averages being $319 per square foot for fast casual, $304 per square foot for full service and
$380 per square foot for quick service).
Respondents to the C-Suite Survey were also asked how they expected building costs for new units to
change in 2014.
In 2014 Compared to 2013, the Cost to Build New Units is Expected to:
Decline more than 10% 0%
Decline 7.6% to 10% 5%
Decline 5.1% to 7.5% 0%
Decline 2.6% to 5% 0%
Decline 0.1% to 2.5% 0%
Remain Flat 14%
Increase 0.1% to 2.5% 24%
Increase 2.6% to 5% 24%
Increase 5.1% to 7.5% 24%
Increase 7.6% to 10% 5%
Increase more than 10% 5%
Not sure 0%
Source: fsSTRATEGY Inc. 2014 C-Suite Survey
As shown, 14% of respondents expect building costs to remain flat in 2013, while 81% expect an
increase in building costs.
Respondents’ reasons for expecting building costs to increase included:
žž labour;
žž general inflation;
žž weak Canadian dollar; and
žž demand exceeds supply.
61
7 | Cost of Doing Business
65. During 2012, there were 71,979 commercial restaurant units across Canada, with over 1,100 new
chain stores opened. While commercial unit growth stayed flat, QSR Other Ethnic and Casual Asian
restaurants primarily increased the number of new units faster than any other type of restaurant
concept in Canada. The continued expansion of chain concepts is putting pressure on Independent
restaurant operators. In 2013, Independent restaurant operators netted out at 0% unit growth.
Total Units: 71,979 Chains Units grew by +4% while Independents netted out at 0%.
Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and BC lead chain unit growth.
Growth Opportunities: Fast Casual Segment in Canada
The term “fast casual” has been a buzzword in the Canadian foodservice industry for a few years
now, just as it was at the beginning of the decade in the US. The upscale quick-service restaurant
(QSR) sub-segment offers quality service and food, which amounts to a higher cheque average than
QSR. It also compels consumers to choose between freshness, quality and variety rather than speed
of service and value pricing. While still relatively underdeveloped in the Canadian market, the fast
casual sub-segment is making significant inroads, capturing six percent of all QSR visits in Canada, as
the steady increase in units drives growth. Canadian fast casual concepts are likely to continue on a
strong growth path in 2014 and 2015. US fast casual operators are looking to the Canadian landscape
to extend their brands. This expansion combined with the continued development of Canada’s own
fast casual brands will result in aggressive unit growth. Expect fast casual to lead over the next 5
years, outpacing all other segments for unit development.
Top Three Growing Chains:
Five Guys Burgers & Fries
Thai Express
Fresh Slice Pizza
8 | Top Chains
66. Notes About This Report
This report is not a complete analysis of every material fact with respect to
any company, segment or industry. Data has been obtained from sources
considered reliable, but are not guaranteed and GE Capital, fsSTRATEGY and
The NPD Group make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy
or completeness of this data. Discussion of tax, financial, and economic
developments and the potential consequences of those developments is
provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this report should be
construed as investment, tax or financial advice. Readers of the report are
encouraged to consult their own tax, financial or legal advisor before acting
upon the information provided herein.
Notes9
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2014 Canadian Chain Restaurant Industry Review
67. fsSTRATEGY is an alliance of senior consultants focusing on
business strategy support - research, analysis, innovation and
implementation - for the foodservice industry. Our team has
extensive consulting experience in foodservice across Canada.
We also offer international experience, having worked in the
United States, Australia, South America, Africa and Europe. Our
team is unique in that we provide service to all foodservice
sectors (restaurants, attractions, hotels and resorts, gaming
establishments and institutions) and all levels of the foodservice
supply chain (growers, processors, distributors and operators).
The NPD Group provides global information and advisory services
todrivebetterbusinessdecisions.Bycombininguniquedataassets
with unmatched industry expertise, we help our clients track their
markets, understand consumers, and drive profitable growth.
Practice areas include automotive, beauty, consumer electronics,
entertainment, fashion, food/foodservice, home, luxury, mobile,
office supplies, sports, technology, toys, and video games.
For more information, visit npdgroup.ca and npdgroupblog.com.
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