This document discusses the problems with estimation and focusing too much on timelines. It argues that estimates will always be inaccurate due to randomness and variability. Instead of focusing on estimates, the document suggests discussing capacity and scope, and continuously improving capacity while minimizing work. The overall message is to stop asking "when?" and to stop relying on estimates, as accuracy can never be guaranteed.

1. JUST STOP ASKING
«WHEN?»
it is the time to stop the slavery
krivitsky@scrumguides.com
@alexeykri

2. I’m one of the scrum guides

3. … when I am not coaching

4. BUSINESS HAS
ITS WANTS
WE ESTIMATE
WE FAIL MAKING
PROMISES
BUSINESS STARTS
TO PUSH

5. THE VICIOUS CICLE
BUSINESS HAS
ITS WANTS
WE ESTIMATE
WE FAIL MAKING
PROMISES
BUSINESS STARTS
TO PUSH
UNDER PRESSURE
WE ESTIMATE WORSE
WE FAIL AGAIN
BUSINESS PUSHES
HARDER

6. A TYPICAL PROJECT …
#NOESTIMATES
we should have
multiplied by 2x….

7. Denver Intl. Airport

8. Denver Intl. Airport

9. Eurofighter Typhoon

10. Eurofighter Typhoon

11. Sydney Opera House

12. Sydney Opera House

13. *CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group
Statistically a software
development project will take
x2.0 MONEY
x1.6 TIME

14. we’re good a solving
simple tasks!

16. 1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10
2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE
HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?

17. we’re good a solving
simple tasks…
NOT!

23. The “software”
of our brain is buggy.

26. DON’T READ THIS TEXT
AND DON’T CALCULATE
3x3 = ?

30. WATER
SO_P
SHOWER

31. SALAD
SO_P
SPAGHETTI

32. WATER
SOAP
SHOWER
SALAD
SOUP
SPAGHETTI

33. 3x3 =
THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT»
abc def

34. “How much time will
this feature take?”
2 days

35. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
2 days

36. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
2 days

37. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?
2 days

38. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?How much time will
they allow me?
2 days

39. JUMPING
TOCONCLUSIONS

40. SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD

41. THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT

42. HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?

44. WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?

45. MCMLXXXIV
good food:)
WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?

46. “INTUITION”
fast decisions
low energy consumption huge energy consumption
RABBIT vs. TURTLE
“LOGIC”
complex stuff

47. RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2
WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING
WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?

48. How old was
Mahatma Gandhi
when he died?

49. 2. How old was he
when he died?
1a. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1b. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?

50. 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1b. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?
83
average
68
average

51. MEET LUCY.
SHE IS SHOCKED.

53. LUCY.
SHOCKED.

54. BUTEVENIFYOUR
LAZYTURTLEWOKE
UP….

55. THE LAWS OF NATURE
WORK AGAINST YOU

59. Delays get
accumulated

60. Delays get
accumulated

61. Delays get
accumulated

62. Delays get
accumulated

63. Early completion
gets lost
Delays get
accumulated
Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers

65. time
probability
1
THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE
THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME

69. KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW
IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE
THAN TO COME EARLIER

73. BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN
ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY
RANDOMNESS

79. DEADLINE
(over there)YOU RELEASE
* procrastination is [TBD]

81. YOU
42
SOMEONE CRAZY
242
12
142
SOMEONE BRAVE
SOMEONE ELSE

82. 83
average
68
average
1. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?
AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76
THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !

85. as a user blah…
given when then foo…

86. YOU’RE
KIDDING
S
M
L
MORE
GROOMING

87. 2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
Σ
sprints3
2

89. 2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2

90. 2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
YOUR VELOCITY
sprints
3
2

91. 2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2
YOUR VELOCITY

93. 2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2

94. спринты
PROBLEM of
ESTIMATIONS ?

95. спринты
This is REALITY.
and POSSIBILITIES.

97. forget all slides above…

98. forget all slides above…
and remember
3 advices

99. STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS
AND ACCURACY
(as they will always suck)
#1

100. #2
START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND
YOUR CAPACITY
AND SCOPE

101. #3 (in parallel)
CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON
IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY
AND
MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE

102. JUST STOP ASKING
«WHEN?»
it is the time to stop the slavery
krivitsky@scrumguides.com
@alexeykri