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2010 census the big story
- 1. 2010 Census: Whatis the BIG story? Alvaro Lima Director of Research Boston Redevelopment Authority
- 2. During the lastdecade Boston’s population grew
- 3. In the lastdecade, Boston’s population grew by 4.8%… Boston’s Population (1950 – 2010) 850,000 801,444 800,000 750,000 697,197 700,000 641,071 650,000 4.8% 600,000 617,594 589,141 574,283 550,000 562,994 500,000 450,000 400,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 4. …and it hasalso grown more than most other cities in the Northeast Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 5. …it has grownfaster than it did in the last two decades reversing the negative trend of the three decades prior to 1980… Boston’s Population (1950 – 2010) 850,000 800,000 750,000 -13% 700,000 -8% 650,000 4.8% 600,000 -12% 2.6% 2.0% 550,000 500,000 -29.7% between 1950 and 1980 +9.7% since 1980 450,000 400,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 6. It didn't justgrow , it grew younger
- 7. 35% of ourpopulation is between the ages of 20 and 34… Boston's Population by Age - 2010 19% 22% 0-19 years 20-34 years 35-54 years 55 and older 24% 35% Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 8. We have thehighest concentration of young adults (20-34) among the 25 largest cities in the country % of Total Location City 20 to 34-Year-Olds Population Quotient Boston 216,213 35.0% 1.73 Austin 251,064 31.8% 1.57 Washington DC 188,855 31.4% 1.55 Atlanta 127,101 30.3% 1.49 Seattle 181,501 29.8% 1.47 San Francisco 228,738 28.4% 1.40 Chicago 738,578 27.4% 1.35 Dallas 314,728 26.3% 1.29 Houston 545,071 26.0% 1.28 Baltimore 160,024 25.8% 1.27 Philadelphia 392,776 25.7% 1.27 Los Angeles 953,443 25.1% 1.24 New York 2,035,030 24.9% 1.23 San Antonio 304,784 23.0% 1.13 Phoenix 330,885 22.9% 1.13 Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 9. … not justyounger but smarter
- 10. 44.3% of Boston’spopulation has at least a bachelor’s degree… Educational Attainment (2000 – 2010) 30.0% 120,000 24.5% 25.0% 23.8% 100,000 21.1% 24.0% 19.8% 20.0% 19.4% 80,000 20.2% 17.7% 14.2% 15.0% 60,000 15.3% 10.0% 40,000 5.0% 20,000 0.0% - Less than high school High school graduate Some college or Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional diploma (includes equivalency) associate's degree degree 2000 2010 % of 2000 Population % of 2010 Population Source: 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 11. …ranking 4th amongthe 25 largest cities in the country Bachelor's Graduate or Bachelor's Rank City degree professional degree or higher 1 Seattle, Washington 33.1% 22.9% 56.0% 2 San Francisco, California 31.4% 19.5% 50.9% 3 Washington, District of Columbia 23.2% 26.9% 50.1% 4 Boston, Massachusetts 24.5% 19.8% 44.3% 5 Austin, Texas 27.5% 16.1% 43.6% 6 Portland, Oregon 26.3% 15.9% 42.2% 7 Denver, Colorado 25.4% 15.5% 40.9% 8 San Diego, California 24.1% 16.3% 40.4% 9 Charlotte, North Carolina 25.9% 12.8% 38.7% 10 San Jose, California 23.2% 13.4% 36.6% 11 Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee 20.0% 13.6% 33.6% 12 Chicago, Illinois 20.2% 13.2% 33.4% 13 New York, New York 19.9% 13.4% 33.3% 14 Columbus, Ohio 21.3% 10.4% 31.7% 15 Los Angeles, California 20.4% 10.3% 30.7% 16 Dallas, Texas 18.5% 10.4% 28.9% 17 Houston, Texas 17.4% 11.0% 28.4% 18 Louisville-Jefferson, Kentucky 16.4% 11.0% 27.4% 19 Indianapolis, Indiana 17.6% 9.0% 26.6% 20 Fort Worth, Texas 18.5% 7.5% 26.0% 11 Source: 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 12. and the citybecame more diverse
- 13. Today less thanhalf of Boston’s population is white, compared to close to 70% in 1980… 1980 1990 2000 1% 3% 0% 5% 1% 0 3% 6% 8% 1% 11% 0% 14% 22% 49.5% 24% 59% 68% 24% 2010 2% 2% 9% 0% 18% 47% 22% Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 14. Boston’s neighborhoods aremore diverse today than they were in 2000 North Dorchester 2010 2000 Back Bay/ 0.80 South Beacon Hill Dorchester 0.70 South Harbor Boston 0.60 Islands 0.50 Mattapan 0.40 Boston 0.30 0.20 Charlestown South End 0.10 0.00 West Roslindale Roxbury Central Hyde Park Allston/ Jamaica Brighton Plain Feneway/ Roxbury Kenmore East Boston Source: US Census 2010, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 15. Immigrants are a bigpart of this story…
- 16. Historically, Boston hashad a greater proportion of foreign- born residents than the Commonwealth and the country… Foreign-born Population 1850 – 2009 (% of total population) 40% Boston 35% Massachusetts United States 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 17. Boston ranks 6thamong the 25 largest cities in the U.S. in proportion of the population that is foreign-born… Foreign Born Rank % Foreign Born City Population Rank 1 39.1% Los Angeles, CA 2 2 38.6% San Jose, CA 10 3 37.2% New York, NY 1 4 35.5% San Francisco, CA 13 5 28.7% Houston, TX 4 6 26.9% Boston, MA 22 7 26.1% San Diego, CA 8 8 25.3% Dallas, TX 9 9 24.6% El Paso, TX 19 10 20.7% Chicago, IL 3 11 20.0% Phoenix, AZ 6 12 18.7% Austin, TX 14 13 17.2% Seattle, WA 23 14 16.9% Fort Worth, TX 16 15 14.4% San Antonio, TX 7 16 14.4% Charlotte, NC 17 17 13.5% Washington, DC 24 18 11.6% Philadelphia, PA 5 19 11.0% Columbus, OH 15 20 10.9% Nashville, TN 25 21 9.4% Jacksonville, FL 11 22 9.0% Indianapolis, IN 12 23 7.1% Baltimore, MD 21 24 6.2% Memphis, TN 20 25 4.8% Detroit, MI 18 Source: 2010 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis.
- 18. Without the influxof immigrants, Boston’s population would be smaller today than it was in 1990… Boston’s Population Trends – (1990 – 2010) 650,000 623,134 600,000 590,490 Native 573,287 Total 550,000 Population 500,000 461,798 457,239 450,000 436,742 400,000 350,000 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 19. Boston’s labor forcewould be smaller as well as its output Boston’s Workforce Trends (1990 – 2010) Boston Output Trends (in 2010 dollar) 450,000 $100,000,000,000 Native Native Employed Total $90,000,000,000 Total Employed $87 billion 400,000 403,386 $80,000,000,000 $70,000,000,000 350,000 $67 billion $60,000,000,000 Population U.S.Dollar 300,000 302,502 $50,000,000,000 288,076 283,576 $40,000,000,000 $38 billion 250,000 $30,000,000,000 $26 billion $29 billion 229,843 203,454 $20,000,000,000 $21 billion 200,000 $10,000,000,000 150,000 $- 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 20. Immigrants also contributeas consumers and entrepreneurs by creating jobs, wealth and paying taxes Consumer Impact – Total Consumer Spending: $3.48 billion – Indirect Jobs: 29,044 jobs – Total Direct Taxes Paid: $940 million Total Impact – Total Gross State Product: $9.79 billion – State and Federal Taxes: $1.54 billion – Total Direct & Indirect Business Impact Jobs: 74,025 – Number of Businesses: 7,988 – Total Number of Employees • Direct Jobs: 20,713 jobs • Indirect Jobs: 24,267 jobs – Total Annual Sales: $3.78 Billion Source: 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 21. …today most immigrantscome from the Caribbean, Latin America and Asia, contributing to Boston’s “majority-minority” status Boston’s Top Ten Immigrant Communities Haiti 10.2% China 8.9% Dominican Republic 8.3% Vietnam 4.2% El Salvador 4.2% Jamaica 4.2% Colombia 3.3% Ireland 3.3% Brazil 3.1% Trinidad & Tobago 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Source: 2010 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis.
- 22. Progress has beenmade but there are still barriers to integration
- 23. 32.1% of immigrantshave not completed high school compared to 23.1% of native born Educational Attainment by Nativity – 2010 35.0% 32.1% 30.0% 25.0% 24.0% 23.1% 21.9% Foreign-Born Native-Born 20.0% 18.1% 16.8% 16.8% 15.0% 14.1% 12.6% 11.4% 10.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.8% 0.0% Less than HS High School Some College Associates Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis
- 24. … a higherproportion of foreign-born residents have limited English proficiency in 2009 than in 2000 English Proficiency – 2010 2000 2009 7.7% 8.5% 92.3% 91.5% English Proficient English Proficient Limited English Proficiency Limited English Proficiency Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis
- 25. The income gapbetween foreign and native born grows with level of education Wage Differential By Educational Attainment $100,000 $94,550 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $66,867 $62,679 $60,000 $50,000 Foreign-Born $42,253 $40,284 $40,000 Native-Born $32,241 $36,250 $30,145 $30,000 $28,149 $22,198 $17,402 $20,000 $16,318 $10,000 $- Less than High High School Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree School Source: 2009 American Community Survey Public Use Micro-data Sample (PUMS), BRA Research Division Analysis
- 26. These outcomes arethe result of barriers that do not allow immigrants to gain the education, learn the language and acquire the skills they need, hampering their integration Integration depends on the Integration Paths “Opportunity Structure” Higher Income immigrants encounter: Upward Integration Work permits Education & Training Middle Class Certification Language Acquisition Lower Income Downward Integration Access to Employment Years in the U.S. Fair Labor Practices etc…
- 27. …and this isthe work ahead of us today Thank you
Editor's Notes
- #2 In the next 10 minutes or so, I will try to convey to you what is the big story or stories behind the 2010 Census release
- #4 Itgrew by 4.8% An impressive growth for any city and particularly impressive for an old, cold Northeastern city
- #5 - And we grew more than most of them
- #6 - More than in the last two decades, reverting the negative trend of the three decades prior to 1980
- #9 - Despite the old, the cold, the closing hours of the T and the bars, and the cost of housing
- #15 This is an Diversity Index calculated as the probability of finding someone in a census tract of a different race or Ethnicity That is, if in a census tract everybody is of the same race or Ethnicity (African America, Hispanic or Asian, for example) the probability of find someone of a different race or Ethnicity is zero On the other hand, If everyone is of a different race or Ethnicity, the probability of finding someone of a different race or Ethnicity is one As you can see, almost all neighborhoods of Boston became more diverse in the last decade with exception a few of them like East Boston that saw an increase in its Hispanic population becoming therefore less diverse- We also calculated the Diversity Index for age, income, language spoken at home, country of origin and education attainment and the city became more diverse along all those dimensions
- #18 Boston ranks 6th among the 25th largest cities in the country in proportion of population that is foreign-born even though we rank 22th in total population
- #19 Without the influx of immigrants, Boston’s population would have been smaller that that of 1990
- #20 Its labor force would have been smaller and therefore its output and we could not have sustained the economic growth and the standard of living we have today
- #21 But immigrants do not contribute only as workers. They contribute also as consumers and entrepreneurs and together, in the aggregate, they contributed …
- #22 And obviously, immigrants contributed significantly to Boston’s “majority-minority” status
- #27 -An immigrant can integrate upward or downward, that is, towards the middle and upper classes or towards the lower economic classes The direction of integration and the slope of these paths are a function not only of the characteristics of immigrants themselves (lower education, language, skills, etc) but the “opportunity structure” they encounter at arrival A good example of that is the European Union that now allows access to training, language acquisition, and jobs for all immigrants from other European countries but not for those from outside the Union So that while opportunities were enlarged for Europeans, they were closed to non-European immigrants
- #28 - Jobs, language acquisition and education are some of the issues that we will be discussing in the panel that follows and in the breakout groups after that.- Thank you and have a very productive Summit