Presented 27 Oct 2008

1. Aging in Black America
Cultural Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities
TRB Impacts of Changing Demographics on the
Transportation System Conference
Beverly G. Ward, Ph.D.
27 October 2008

2. Presentation Overview
• Introduction
• Selected Socioeconomic and Demographic
Characteristics
• Implications
• Strategies and Recommendations

3. Introduction
• Zolli, U.S. future “browner, more feminine…”
• Black population in the U.S. projected to be (raw numbers
follow)
– 2010, 12.9 percent;
– 2020, 13 percent; and,
– 2030, 13.1 percent
• Younger than the U.S. population by more than five years
– median age of 30.2 years versus 35.3 years
• Geographic concentrations, overall health status, and
household incomes may unique
• Social practices may be leveraged to mitigate adverse
conditions
– Propensity to use transit,
– Household composition, and
– Social networks

4. Population Projections 2010
through 2050
Total % Blacks %
Year (in thousands) Change (in thousands) Change
2010 308,936 9,5 40,454 12.9
2020 335,805 8.7 45,365 12.1
2030 363,584 8.3 50,442 11.2
2040 391,946 7.8 55,876 10.8
2050 419,854 7.1 61,361 9.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, quot;U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,quot;
<http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/>
Levy (1995, p. 461, cited in Page 2006),
“Not all drivers are legally licensed and not everyone who is licensed
actually drives.”

6. Geography (cont’d)
• More than two-thirds of the Black population
lived in 17 states,
– Nearly half in the South Atlantic Census Division
(Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,
Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and
West Virginia.
– 2006: top 10 states were California, Florida, Georgia,
Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, New York, North Carolina,
Texas, and Virginia.
– 2000 Census: more densely concentrated by county
in the Coastal and Lowland South
• Of the 96 counties where Blacks comprise 50 percent or
more few metropolitan areas

7. Life Expectancy at Birth
Total White Black
Year Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
2004 77.8 75.2 80.4 78.3 75.7 80.8 73.1 69.5 76.3
2010 78.5 75.6 81.4 79.0 76.1 81.8 74.5 70.9 77.8
2015 79.2 76.2 82.2 80.9 78.0 83.8 75.5 71.9 78.9
U.S. Census Bureau 2008

8. 2000 Census Population Pyramids
BLACK POPULATION
85 and over
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
Male
45 to 49
Female
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
U.S. Census Bureau 2000

9. Selected Socioeconomic, and
Demographic Characteristics
2005
Total African
Characteristic U.S. Americans
Total population 299,398,485 37,051,483
Age
% 35 to 44 years 14.7% 14.8%
% 45 to 54 years 14.5% 13.6%
% 55 to 64 years 10.6% 8.5%
% 65 to 74 years 6.3% 4.8%
% 75 to 84 years 6.1% 3.6%
Source: 2006 American Community Survey

10. Selected Socioeconomic, and
Demographic Characteristics (cont’d)
Characteristic (2000) U.S. % U.S. Black % Black
Educational attainment population > 25 yrs 182,211,639 100.0 1,575,555 100.0
Less than high school 35,715,625 19.6 5,507,694 27.7
High school graduate or more 102,033,409 56.0 11,519,132 58.0
Bachelor's degree or more 44,462,605 24.4 2,831,269 14.3
U.S. Census Bureau 2000

11. Selected Socioeconomic, and
Demographic Characteristics (cont’d)
Characteristic (2000) U.S. % U.S. Black % Black
Total Population 281,421,906 100.0 34,658,190 100.0
In HHs 273,643,273 97.2 32,939,206 95.0
In Family HHs 231,374,718 82.2 28,238,234 81.5
Female HH 19,943,930 7.1 4,549,529 13.1
Spouse 54,493,232 19.4 3,678,207 10.6
In Nonfamily HHs 42,268,555 15.0 4,700,972 13.6
Female HH 18,136,651 6.4 2,075,909 6.0
Living alone 15,540,969 5.5 1,805,760 5.2
Occupied housing units 105,480,101 100.0 11,977,309 100.0
Renter occupied 35,663,588 28.7 6,428,023 53.7
No telephone available 11,977,309 2.5 643,382 5.7
No vehicle available 10,861,067 10.3 2,848,615 23.8
U.S. Census Bureau 2000

12. Additional Characteristics that Will
Influence Travel Behavior
% of persons with disabilities
•
Household composition
•
Educational attainment
•
Vehicle availability
•

13. Health Related Characteristics that
Influence Mobility
Obesity
•
Alzheimer’s disease
•
Arthritis
•
Cancer
•
Diabetes
•
Heart disease and stroke
•
Hypertension
•
Osteoporosis, and
•
Sensory impairments
•

14. Additional Considerations
• Disasters and emergencies
• Ethnicity, gender, and
geography
• Household composition
• Retirement security
– Earnings less than majority
community
– Recent Brookings study on
income gap suggests that
younger generation not earning
as expected

15. Implications for Aging African
Americans and U.S. Society
• Median age
– Gender
– Income
Rapid growth
•
Land use practices
•
Affordable housing and “aging in place”
•
Driving reduction or cessation
•
– Personal safety

16. Implications of Socioeconomic
Characteristics for the Future
• Projected growth
• Median age
• Homeownership suggests desire to age-in-
place
• Vehicle ownership v. persons with disabilities,
age, and population growth
• More mobility options, e.g., transit and
paratransit

17. Confusing Array of Programs
Medicaid Children
Development
Program & Families
Disabilities Family
United Methodist
Temporary Clayton School
Assistance
Assistance for District Church
Needy Families
Substance Abuse
Mental Health
Medicare & Health
Rural Transit
Medicaid Svcs
HHS
Care
Operators
Health
Resources
Office of the Family
& Services
Secretary
Ride Inc
Assistant
Head Secretary Soc. Services
Child
Start Care
Planning Block Grant
Bureau
Evaluation
ABC’s Transit Education
Aging
Community
Services
Centers for
Independent Living
State Governors
&
Disability
Rehab and
Cabinet Secretaries
Rehabilitation Research
Services
Administration
Employment
?
Federal
Education
Agencies ? ?
Office of Special
&
Education Programs
Grant Shopping
$
Local
Government
Office of Disability
Employment Policy
Labor
Recreation
Employment
Medicaid
Training
Agency
Transportation
Elderly
Urbanized
Office of the Blue Top Taxi
&
Grant Program
Secretary Disability
Program Independence
Easter Seals
National Highway Federal Transit
Traffic Safety Early Learning
Administration Rural Grant
Administration
Center
Program
Metro Access
DART
Departmental Job Access
Office of Assistant Secretary Reverse Commute
Civil Rights for Transportation Program
Policy

18. General Strategies
• Transit operations
– Propensity for transit use
– Stack’s, Call to Home
• Remigration
• Challenge and opportunity
• Roadway design and investments
– Increased investments in bicycle and pedestrian facilities
• Other land use, infrastructure, and policy
considerations
– Residential segregation
– Pedestrian amenities

19. Strategies from AARP’s Livable
Communities: An Evaluation Guide
• Universal Design
• Mobility Management
1-800-MOVE
–
Human service and public transport coordination
–
Volunteer drivers
–
Jitneys
–
Flexcars
–
Volunteer programs
–
And so on…
–
• Driving
• Walking
• Fare-free transit

20. Summary
• Existing population demographics
• Socioeconomic characteristics suggest impacts
may be more adverse for this subgroup of the
population
• Strategies for the U.S. to consider