1. The document discusses China's aging population challenge, with the ratio of those aged 0-14 declining and those aged 60 and above rising significantly between 2000-2010.
2. It also notes signs of an economic slowdown in China, with declining growth in power consumption, oil processing, metals output and other indicators in 2012.
3. Exports as a percentage of China's GDP have been declining, while fixed asset investment and real estate investment still make up a large portion of GDP, suggesting China may need to shift to more domestic and consumption driven growth.
Originally presented at LOGIN 2009, this is a fast-paced and colorful trip through PopCap's first year in China, with advice for any company considering the challenge of entering the Chinese market (or any developing country, for that matter).
Every year, World Health Day is celebrated on 7 April to mark the anniversary of the founding of the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1948.
World Health Day is a global campaign, It calls everyone – from global leaders to the public in all countries to focus on a single health challenge with global impact.
World Health Day provides an opportunity to start collective action to protect people’s health and well-being. It is an opportunity to engage in finding solutions that benefit us all.
11% Federation
4%
The document summarizes global progress in reducing preventable child deaths. It notes that the global under-five mortality rate has fallen 41% from 1990 to 2011. However, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia still account for the majority of under-five deaths. Half of global under-five deaths in 2010 occurred in just 5 countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, and China. While progress has been made in reducing deaths from preventable causes like pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria, more work is still needed to address disparities and strengthen community-based healthcare.
This document discusses key trends shaping the future of credit unions, including demographic shifts, the rise of digital payments and mobile banking, and the empowerment of consumers through social media and technology. It notes challenges such as new competitors, changing consumer preferences, and the need for business model changes. The future will require credit unions to develop optimized digital channels while also winning in electronic payments to remain competitive. Demographic trends like population aging will also impact credit unions.
What does the future health outlook for Asia look like? What are the key drivers for lifestyle driven diseases? Check out this presentation by futurist Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Leslie Sopp ACRS Age Concern IoF Insight Show 170608Insight_SIG
The document discusses Baby Boomers (people born between 1946-1964) and why they are an important demographic for fundraising. It notes that Baby Boomers will account for 24% more of the population by 2020 compared to 2005. Additionally, Baby Boomers generally have substantial wealth accumulated in home equity and pensions. While they account for 40% of consumer spending, only 5% of marketing spending is devoted to those over 50 years old. The document argues that Baby Boomers are an influential generation that are beginning to have more free time and discretionary income available for causes that align with their interests and values.
Population ageing will present a great challenge for former Eastern European countries. As their populations age, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to significantly increase between 2010 and 2060. Specifically, these countries will experience the fastest population ageing in the future, shifting from younger populations to older ones at a quicker rate than other regions due to declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. While Eastern Europe will have the oldest populations worldwide by 2060 in terms of percentage of people aged 65+, it may not have the highest percentage of the oldest old (aged 80+).
Canada continues to lead the world in online engagement, with visitors spending an average 45 hours per month online, representing a fertile ground for digital marketers and advertisers.
Originally presented at LOGIN 2009, this is a fast-paced and colorful trip through PopCap's first year in China, with advice for any company considering the challenge of entering the Chinese market (or any developing country, for that matter).
Every year, World Health Day is celebrated on 7 April to mark the anniversary of the founding of the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1948.
World Health Day is a global campaign, It calls everyone – from global leaders to the public in all countries to focus on a single health challenge with global impact.
World Health Day provides an opportunity to start collective action to protect people’s health and well-being. It is an opportunity to engage in finding solutions that benefit us all.
11% Federation
4%
The document summarizes global progress in reducing preventable child deaths. It notes that the global under-five mortality rate has fallen 41% from 1990 to 2011. However, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia still account for the majority of under-five deaths. Half of global under-five deaths in 2010 occurred in just 5 countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, and China. While progress has been made in reducing deaths from preventable causes like pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria, more work is still needed to address disparities and strengthen community-based healthcare.
This document discusses key trends shaping the future of credit unions, including demographic shifts, the rise of digital payments and mobile banking, and the empowerment of consumers through social media and technology. It notes challenges such as new competitors, changing consumer preferences, and the need for business model changes. The future will require credit unions to develop optimized digital channels while also winning in electronic payments to remain competitive. Demographic trends like population aging will also impact credit unions.
What does the future health outlook for Asia look like? What are the key drivers for lifestyle driven diseases? Check out this presentation by futurist Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Leslie Sopp ACRS Age Concern IoF Insight Show 170608Insight_SIG
The document discusses Baby Boomers (people born between 1946-1964) and why they are an important demographic for fundraising. It notes that Baby Boomers will account for 24% more of the population by 2020 compared to 2005. Additionally, Baby Boomers generally have substantial wealth accumulated in home equity and pensions. While they account for 40% of consumer spending, only 5% of marketing spending is devoted to those over 50 years old. The document argues that Baby Boomers are an influential generation that are beginning to have more free time and discretionary income available for causes that align with their interests and values.
Population ageing will present a great challenge for former Eastern European countries. As their populations age, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to significantly increase between 2010 and 2060. Specifically, these countries will experience the fastest population ageing in the future, shifting from younger populations to older ones at a quicker rate than other regions due to declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy. While Eastern Europe will have the oldest populations worldwide by 2060 in terms of percentage of people aged 65+, it may not have the highest percentage of the oldest old (aged 80+).
Canada continues to lead the world in online engagement, with visitors spending an average 45 hours per month online, representing a fertile ground for digital marketers and advertisers.
This is my master thesis presentation at Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, on the topic of innovation for printed newspapers with a focus on the young audience.
This document discusses comScore, a company that measures digital audiences globally and locally. It provides the following key details:
- ComScore has over 900 employees, 1700+ clients worldwide, and measures digital audiences in over 170 countries.
- ComScore leverages data from a 2 million person global panel to provide analytics on online and offline behaviors across many digital categories.
- Latin America is experiencing significant growth in online audiences, with some countries like Brazil and Mexico growing over 10% year-over-year.
- Chile has an online audience of 7.3 million people, with average internet usage lower than regional leaders like Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. The age distribution of internet users in Chile
This document discusses how chemical engineers can capitalize on the bioscience revolution to ensure their survival and success. It notes that most of the world's energy, chemicals, and materials are currently derived from fossil fuels but that there is a growing push for more sustainable, low-carbon and bio-based alternatives. The document outlines trends in industries like biofuels, bioplastics, and industrial biotechnology that chemical engineers could contribute to. It also summarizes strategies for the Institution of Chemical Engineers to collaborate more across disciplines like chemistry and biology, improve training, foster innovation, and guide roadmaps for industrial biotechnology.
This document summarizes injury and claim trends in the Ohio workers' compensation system from 2000-2010. Some key points:
- The frequency of lost time and medical only claims declined from 2000-2009. However, the severity of claims, as measured by 30-month aged indemnity and medical costs, increased over the same period.
- Common causes of lost time injuries included overexertion, falls, and being struck by objects. The costs of these injuries made up a large percentage of total costs.
- Participating in Ohio's SHARP program, which emphasizes safety management systems, was associated with large decreases in claims costs and costs per $1 million payroll for participating companies compared to before participating. H
Vietnam's retail market experienced slower growth from 2010-2012 due to declining GDP growth and inflation. However, the market remains attractive long-term due to Vietnam's young population, growing incomes, and urbanization. Foreign investment in retail has increased, though complex regulations remain a challenge. Modern retail channels are growing while traditional retailers still dominate. The outlook is positive over the forecast period as urbanization and incomes continue rising.
The document discusses transforming India through education and vocational training. It outlines the purpose of education and focuses on areas like vocational education and training, governance, the economy, and employment generation. It notes India's high dropout rates, low literacy rates compared to countries like China, and emphasizes the need to focus on vocational skills training to generate employment and improve productivity. The document concludes by discussing eLearning and its potential role in improving access to education.
Solidiance shares the current opportunities and challenges of the Vietnamese market.
Where is Vietnam going from here? After formidable economic growth for the past 5 years, will Vietnam be able to sustain high level of foreign direct investment during the 2009 economic crisis.
This document analyzes Africa's shifting economic partnerships, noting that emerging partners like China, India, Turkey, Brazil and South Korea have become major drivers of Africa's growth, surpassing traditional partners in some trade. While traditional partners still play a significant role, emerging partners now account for 39% of Africa's total trade, up from 23% in 2000. China in particular has tripled its share of Africa's trade. However, the report also finds that emerging and traditional partners take complementary approaches that often benefit African countries, and that fears of harm have exceeded the actual impacts so far. It calls into question perceptions that emerging partners undermine governance, contribute to debt or deindustrialization.
This document discusses the relationship between antitrust and privacy law. It notes that there is little direct guidance from EU case law on this issue. However, one case found that while privacy issues are not directly an antitrust matter, competition authorities can consider facts that relate to both privacy and antitrust. The document argues that degradation of privacy quality through excessive data collection by dominant firms could form the basis for an abuse of dominance claim. It examines ongoing investigations into this issue, and argues that fairness principles from privacy law should inform European antitrust analysis.
The impact of innovation on travel and tourism industries (World Travel Marke...Brian Solis
From the impact of Pokemon Go on Silicon Valley to artificial intelligence, futurist Brian Solis talks to Mathew Parsons of World Travel Market about the future of travel, tourism and hospitality.
We’re all trying to find that idea or spark that will turn a good project into a great project. Creativity plays a huge role in the outcome of our work. Harnessing the power of collaboration and open source, we can make great strides towards excellence. Not just for designers, this talk can be applicable to many different roles – even development. In this talk, Seasoned Creative Director Sara Cannon is going to share some secrets about creative methodology, collaboration, and the strong role that open source can play in our work.
Reuters: Pictures of the Year 2016 (Part 2)maditabalnco
This document contains 20 photos from news events around the world between January and November 2016. The photos show international events like the US presidential election, the conflict in Ukraine, the migrant crisis in Europe, the Rio Olympics, and more. They also depict human interest stories and natural phenomena from various countries.
The Six Highest Performing B2B Blog Post FormatsBarry Feldman
If your B2B blogging goals include earning social media shares and backlinks to boost your search rankings, this infographic lists the size best approaches.
1) The document discusses the opportunity for technology to improve organizational efficiency and transition economies into a "smart and clean world."
2) It argues that aggregate efficiency has stalled at around 22% for 30 years due to limitations of the Second Industrial Revolution, but that digitizing transport, energy, and communication through technologies like blockchain can help manage resources and increase efficiency.
3) Technologies like precision agriculture, cloud computing, robotics, and autonomous vehicles may allow for "dematerialization" and do more with fewer physical resources through effects like reduced waste and need for transportation/logistics infrastructure.
The Waco 2050 Plan document outlines a visioning process for the future of Waco, Texas through 2050. It discusses national trends of an aging population, increasing single-person households, and approaching labor shortages. Existing conditions in Waco like demographic data and land use are analyzed. The planning process involves gathering public input through interviews, workshops, and open houses to develop scenarios for Waco's future growth, which could result in the population increasing by 100,000-135,000 people by 2050. The plan will provide strategies to guide development and redevelopment through 2050 based on the community's vision.
This document discusses key concepts related to population growth including population growth rates, doubling time, carrying capacity, and population projections. It provides data on historical and projected growth of the world's population from 1 million years ago to 2100. Graphs show that population growth rates have declined since the 1950s while the net increase in population per year has continued to rise due to past high fertility rates. Overall birth and death rates have decreased globally over the last 50 years.
The document provides an overview of the state of the US apartment market in September 2010. It summarizes recent economic indicators and trends affecting supply and demand for rental housing. Key points include slowing GDP growth recovering from recession, low inflation, high unemployment, a large inventory of vacant homes, declining homeownership rates, and positive long-term demographic trends that will increase demand for rental housing such as population growth, aging baby boomers, immigration, and changing household composition. The outlook for the apartment industry remains favorable due to these demand drivers, but construction activity and financing remain below historical levels due to the impacts of the financial crisis and new regulations.
The document discusses global population trends and their impact on demographics and marketing from 2010 to 2050. Some key points:
- World population is expected to peak at 8.9 billion in 2068 before declining as birth rates fall. However, populations will age differently in each country.
- The number of people aged 0-14 will decline in places like China and India but grow in African nations. Those aged 15-64, who make up the workforce, will shrink in China, Japan, and Russia but expand greatly in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries.
- These shifting demographic trends will influence each nation's social and economic success and require changes to marketing approaches to reach different generations over time.
1) China has experienced unprecedented economic growth over the past 40 years since economic reforms began, with annual growth rates of around 9% leading to over a tenfold increase in living standards.
2) This rapid growth has been driven by China's demographic dividend as the working-age population increased and supported overall growth. However, China's dividend is disappearing as the population ages.
3) To maintain economic growth, China must transition from relying on its demographic dividend to implementing further economic reforms that can drive productivity and unlock new sources of growth, such as reforming the household registration system to increase labor mobility.
Economic trends in the district of columbia (sge)Marvin Ward
The population of Washington D.C. and the surrounding metro area grew substantially between 2000 and 2010. The District saw a 9.3% population increase, with growth concentrated among younger residents aged 20-29, particularly women. Housing units also increased dramatically to keep pace with population growth. However, the costs of home ownership rose much faster than incomes over this period. While aggregate income and GDP increased, real wages saw more modest gains. The top revenue sources for the District government - individual income tax, property tax, and sales tax - all experienced significant growth between 1990 and 2010, reflecting the overall economic expansion.
The document summarizes key findings from Mongolia's 2010 population census:
- Mongolia's total population was 2.75 million, with an annual growth rate of 1.5% since the last census. Two-thirds of the population is between 15-65 years old.
- Urban population has grown significantly, with the percentage of urban residents increasing from 57% in 2000 to 68% in 2010. Population density also increased, though remains lowest worldwide.
- Net migration to the capital city of Ulaanbaatar was over 135,000 between 2005-2010. Omnogobi province saw the second highest migration growth rate last decade and net migration last year.
- Education levels have
This is my master thesis presentation at Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, on the topic of innovation for printed newspapers with a focus on the young audience.
This document discusses comScore, a company that measures digital audiences globally and locally. It provides the following key details:
- ComScore has over 900 employees, 1700+ clients worldwide, and measures digital audiences in over 170 countries.
- ComScore leverages data from a 2 million person global panel to provide analytics on online and offline behaviors across many digital categories.
- Latin America is experiencing significant growth in online audiences, with some countries like Brazil and Mexico growing over 10% year-over-year.
- Chile has an online audience of 7.3 million people, with average internet usage lower than regional leaders like Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. The age distribution of internet users in Chile
This document discusses how chemical engineers can capitalize on the bioscience revolution to ensure their survival and success. It notes that most of the world's energy, chemicals, and materials are currently derived from fossil fuels but that there is a growing push for more sustainable, low-carbon and bio-based alternatives. The document outlines trends in industries like biofuels, bioplastics, and industrial biotechnology that chemical engineers could contribute to. It also summarizes strategies for the Institution of Chemical Engineers to collaborate more across disciplines like chemistry and biology, improve training, foster innovation, and guide roadmaps for industrial biotechnology.
This document summarizes injury and claim trends in the Ohio workers' compensation system from 2000-2010. Some key points:
- The frequency of lost time and medical only claims declined from 2000-2009. However, the severity of claims, as measured by 30-month aged indemnity and medical costs, increased over the same period.
- Common causes of lost time injuries included overexertion, falls, and being struck by objects. The costs of these injuries made up a large percentage of total costs.
- Participating in Ohio's SHARP program, which emphasizes safety management systems, was associated with large decreases in claims costs and costs per $1 million payroll for participating companies compared to before participating. H
Vietnam's retail market experienced slower growth from 2010-2012 due to declining GDP growth and inflation. However, the market remains attractive long-term due to Vietnam's young population, growing incomes, and urbanization. Foreign investment in retail has increased, though complex regulations remain a challenge. Modern retail channels are growing while traditional retailers still dominate. The outlook is positive over the forecast period as urbanization and incomes continue rising.
The document discusses transforming India through education and vocational training. It outlines the purpose of education and focuses on areas like vocational education and training, governance, the economy, and employment generation. It notes India's high dropout rates, low literacy rates compared to countries like China, and emphasizes the need to focus on vocational skills training to generate employment and improve productivity. The document concludes by discussing eLearning and its potential role in improving access to education.
Solidiance shares the current opportunities and challenges of the Vietnamese market.
Where is Vietnam going from here? After formidable economic growth for the past 5 years, will Vietnam be able to sustain high level of foreign direct investment during the 2009 economic crisis.
This document analyzes Africa's shifting economic partnerships, noting that emerging partners like China, India, Turkey, Brazil and South Korea have become major drivers of Africa's growth, surpassing traditional partners in some trade. While traditional partners still play a significant role, emerging partners now account for 39% of Africa's total trade, up from 23% in 2000. China in particular has tripled its share of Africa's trade. However, the report also finds that emerging and traditional partners take complementary approaches that often benefit African countries, and that fears of harm have exceeded the actual impacts so far. It calls into question perceptions that emerging partners undermine governance, contribute to debt or deindustrialization.
This document discusses the relationship between antitrust and privacy law. It notes that there is little direct guidance from EU case law on this issue. However, one case found that while privacy issues are not directly an antitrust matter, competition authorities can consider facts that relate to both privacy and antitrust. The document argues that degradation of privacy quality through excessive data collection by dominant firms could form the basis for an abuse of dominance claim. It examines ongoing investigations into this issue, and argues that fairness principles from privacy law should inform European antitrust analysis.
The impact of innovation on travel and tourism industries (World Travel Marke...Brian Solis
From the impact of Pokemon Go on Silicon Valley to artificial intelligence, futurist Brian Solis talks to Mathew Parsons of World Travel Market about the future of travel, tourism and hospitality.
We’re all trying to find that idea or spark that will turn a good project into a great project. Creativity plays a huge role in the outcome of our work. Harnessing the power of collaboration and open source, we can make great strides towards excellence. Not just for designers, this talk can be applicable to many different roles – even development. In this talk, Seasoned Creative Director Sara Cannon is going to share some secrets about creative methodology, collaboration, and the strong role that open source can play in our work.
Reuters: Pictures of the Year 2016 (Part 2)maditabalnco
This document contains 20 photos from news events around the world between January and November 2016. The photos show international events like the US presidential election, the conflict in Ukraine, the migrant crisis in Europe, the Rio Olympics, and more. They also depict human interest stories and natural phenomena from various countries.
The Six Highest Performing B2B Blog Post FormatsBarry Feldman
If your B2B blogging goals include earning social media shares and backlinks to boost your search rankings, this infographic lists the size best approaches.
1) The document discusses the opportunity for technology to improve organizational efficiency and transition economies into a "smart and clean world."
2) It argues that aggregate efficiency has stalled at around 22% for 30 years due to limitations of the Second Industrial Revolution, but that digitizing transport, energy, and communication through technologies like blockchain can help manage resources and increase efficiency.
3) Technologies like precision agriculture, cloud computing, robotics, and autonomous vehicles may allow for "dematerialization" and do more with fewer physical resources through effects like reduced waste and need for transportation/logistics infrastructure.
The Waco 2050 Plan document outlines a visioning process for the future of Waco, Texas through 2050. It discusses national trends of an aging population, increasing single-person households, and approaching labor shortages. Existing conditions in Waco like demographic data and land use are analyzed. The planning process involves gathering public input through interviews, workshops, and open houses to develop scenarios for Waco's future growth, which could result in the population increasing by 100,000-135,000 people by 2050. The plan will provide strategies to guide development and redevelopment through 2050 based on the community's vision.
This document discusses key concepts related to population growth including population growth rates, doubling time, carrying capacity, and population projections. It provides data on historical and projected growth of the world's population from 1 million years ago to 2100. Graphs show that population growth rates have declined since the 1950s while the net increase in population per year has continued to rise due to past high fertility rates. Overall birth and death rates have decreased globally over the last 50 years.
The document provides an overview of the state of the US apartment market in September 2010. It summarizes recent economic indicators and trends affecting supply and demand for rental housing. Key points include slowing GDP growth recovering from recession, low inflation, high unemployment, a large inventory of vacant homes, declining homeownership rates, and positive long-term demographic trends that will increase demand for rental housing such as population growth, aging baby boomers, immigration, and changing household composition. The outlook for the apartment industry remains favorable due to these demand drivers, but construction activity and financing remain below historical levels due to the impacts of the financial crisis and new regulations.
The document discusses global population trends and their impact on demographics and marketing from 2010 to 2050. Some key points:
- World population is expected to peak at 8.9 billion in 2068 before declining as birth rates fall. However, populations will age differently in each country.
- The number of people aged 0-14 will decline in places like China and India but grow in African nations. Those aged 15-64, who make up the workforce, will shrink in China, Japan, and Russia but expand greatly in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries.
- These shifting demographic trends will influence each nation's social and economic success and require changes to marketing approaches to reach different generations over time.
1) China has experienced unprecedented economic growth over the past 40 years since economic reforms began, with annual growth rates of around 9% leading to over a tenfold increase in living standards.
2) This rapid growth has been driven by China's demographic dividend as the working-age population increased and supported overall growth. However, China's dividend is disappearing as the population ages.
3) To maintain economic growth, China must transition from relying on its demographic dividend to implementing further economic reforms that can drive productivity and unlock new sources of growth, such as reforming the household registration system to increase labor mobility.
Economic trends in the district of columbia (sge)Marvin Ward
The population of Washington D.C. and the surrounding metro area grew substantially between 2000 and 2010. The District saw a 9.3% population increase, with growth concentrated among younger residents aged 20-29, particularly women. Housing units also increased dramatically to keep pace with population growth. However, the costs of home ownership rose much faster than incomes over this period. While aggregate income and GDP increased, real wages saw more modest gains. The top revenue sources for the District government - individual income tax, property tax, and sales tax - all experienced significant growth between 1990 and 2010, reflecting the overall economic expansion.
The document summarizes key findings from Mongolia's 2010 population census:
- Mongolia's total population was 2.75 million, with an annual growth rate of 1.5% since the last census. Two-thirds of the population is between 15-65 years old.
- Urban population has grown significantly, with the percentage of urban residents increasing from 57% in 2000 to 68% in 2010. Population density also increased, though remains lowest worldwide.
- Net migration to the capital city of Ulaanbaatar was over 135,000 between 2005-2010. Omnogobi province saw the second highest migration growth rate last decade and net migration last year.
- Education levels have
The document discusses the potential link between career guidance, human resources development, migration, labor market efficiency, training quality, and democracy. It argues that career guidance can help address challenges related to migration between Europe and MENA countries by improving education and skills matching labor demands. Effective career guidance systems also support public policy goals in education, employment, and social cohesion. While challenges remain in implementing career guidance programs in MENA, governments and support organizations could help by developing long-term strategies and providing technical assistance.
This document analyzes statistics on the print newspaper industry in the United States. It shows that while newspaper circulation and readership numbers have declined over the past decade, especially among younger age groups, newspapers are still widely read with circulation around 45 million in 2011. Advertising revenues for print newspapers have also fallen in recent years. However, some argue that print media is not dying but rather evolving to a new format. The document concludes that print remains an important part of the news media landscape, though digital formats are increasingly popular among younger consumers.
Generational Trends in Home Ownership: An Era of Renters?Nar Res
This document discusses generational trends in homeownership in the United States. It finds that homeownership rates have declined the most among younger generations like Millennials. While the Baby Boom generation experienced high rates of homeownership during their prime home-buying years, fewer Millennials are choosing to own homes compared to previous generations at the same age. This could reflect long-term generational shifts away from homeownership in the U.S. driven by rising housing costs and debt levels among younger people.
The document discusses several interrelated challenges facing the SCAG region: growth and congestion; freight movement; air quality and the environment; energy, fuels, and prices; transportation finance; and economics and institutions. It notes that the SCAG region is forecast to grow by 28% in population and 27% in employment by 2035, adding over 5 million new residents. This growth will make the region more diverse and older, with nearly 30% of the population over 65 by 2025 compared to 11% in 2000. This aging population will place new demands on transportation and affect income taxes.
Ehip1 caring through-sharing the-e health-landscape dirk de langhe veronique ...imec.archive
The document discusses trends in healthcare and the potential for eHealth to help address challenges in the industry. It notes that the world population is growing and aging, placing more demands on healthcare systems. New technologies are needed to help improve quality of care, access, and efficiency. eHealth aims to transform healthcare through more integrated and collaborative systems that support prevention, early diagnosis, and targeted treatments. This can help move healthcare from a focus on treating late-stage disease to emphasizing early health and wellness. However, key issues around standards, funding, change management, privacy, and coordination of innovation still need to be addressed for eHealth to realize its full potential.
It's More Fun Investing in the PhilippinesAldrin Bibon
The Philippine stock market has performed well despite global economic challenges, with the PSEi up 18.5% year-to-date. Strong economic fundamentals such as consumer spending, government spending, and exports drove 1Q GDP growth of 6.4%. However, valuations appear stretched and recent large share placements may sap liquidity in the short-term. Overall the outlook remains positive, as fundamentals are expected to catch up to valuations over the long-run.
"Smart Money on Smart Growth", Evan Richert. Summit 2012, 10/23/12GrowSmart Maine
This document discusses trends in housing preferences and how they are shaping development in Maine. It notes that over half of all homebuyers fall into three categories - Small Town Civics, Young Turks, and Introspectives - but only a small portion of new housing addresses their preferences. Four forces - the recession, gas prices, connectivity, and generation Y - are changing the market. Younger generations prefer walkable urban and small town living near amenities over car-dependent suburbs. Developers are starting to tap into this demand through mixed-use projects, mill redevelopment, transit-oriented development, and infill that support walkability.
Special lecture on theme of "Europe’s Role in Food and Nutrition Security" by Shenggen Fan. The presentation was the keynote of a Teagasc and the Royal Dublin Society (RDS) lecture series on "Grand Challenges of Global Agriculture and Food" delivered on April 11, 2013 in Dublin, Ireland.
The document discusses Latvia's declining population and the challenges of an aging population. It notes that Latvia's population decline is worse than it seems due to young people leaving for work after the economic collapse. Population aging is a global issue but is particularly severe in East Europe. Countries like Bulgaria and Ukraine will see over 20% of their populations over 65 by 2025. The aging population will significantly impact economies by reducing the working population and affecting patterns of national savings and debt.
Ways to Change - Insight on How to Succeed in the Digital Future of Magazine ...jackgriffinesa
This document discusses ways for magazines to succeed in the digital future. It notes that digital media is growing rapidly and will dominate the future. The mobile world is always connected and growing. Print circulation is declining as more transition to digital. Tablets are a major disruptor for print publishing. To transform, magazines must embrace perpetual change, have content on every platform, and develop new digital roles and skills. Success requires a commitment to ongoing adaptation and evolution.
The survey of 892 downtown Kansas City residents found that more residents are owning rather than renting homes and having higher incomes. Residents are very satisfied living downtown and rate it positively for entertainment, character, and culture but negatively for transportation and green space. Most residents work downtown, dine out frequently at casual restaurants downtown, and shop for groceries downtown multiple times per month.
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
“Amidst Tempered Optimism” Main economic trends in May 2024 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On 12 June 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (May 2024)”.
During the event, the results of the 25-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in May 2024, were presented.
The field stage of the 25-th wave lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024. In May, 532 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in May 2024 with April, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: https://youtu.be/4ZvsSKd1MzE
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
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University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
(1)陆挺:中国经济的短期和长期发展:硬着陆或软着陆?
1. Date
Ting Lu +852 2536 3718
China economist
Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)
ting.lu@baml.com
China’s landing
in the short and long run:
Hard or soft?
Product ID
1
2. China in 2011-20: The major challenge:
Aging population
Date
The aging population
• As of 2010: Age 0-14: 16.6%; Age 15-
million person
350 59: 70.1%; Age 60 or above: 13.3%; 65
300 and above: 8.9%.
250
200
150
• Compare with 2000,Ratio of age
100
50
group 0-14 declined 6.3 ppt, ratio of age
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 group 15-59 rose 3.4ppt, ratio of 60 and
Age 0-14 Age 65 and abov e
above rose 2.9 ppt,ratio 65 and above
rose 1.9 ppt.
The falling size of young working age population
million person
600 • The size of age group 20-34 peaked in
2000, and dropped 22.0% from 2000 to
500
2008.
400
300
• The size of age group 20-44 peaked in
200
2000, and dropped 3.6% from 2000 to
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Age 20-44 20-39 20-34
2008.
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch calculations.
2
3. Date Lewis turning point in China
1.6
1.5 Impact of global
1.4 financil crisis
Lew is turning
1.3
point in China
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Labor supply-demand ratio
More people from villages to cities? Urbanization ratio rose to 51.3% in 2011 from
36.2% in 2000. Net increase in urban population is 253mn in the period of 2000-2010.
Migrant population rose 81% to 261mn in the same period.
3
4. Date
%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
Japan
1984
1987
1990
1993
China 1996
1999
2002
2005
Dependency ratio: China vs. Japan
2008
2011
4
7. 10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
%
1980 Date
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
GDP grow th
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Impact on growth: double digit is history
7
2026
8. Still backward: Versus other countries
Date
0.950 and over 0.700–0.749 0.450–0.499
0.900–0.949 0.650–0.699 0.400–0.449
0.850–0.899 0.600–0.649 0.350–0.399
0.800–0.849 0.550–0.599 under 0.350
0.750–0.799 0.500–0.549 not available
China and World Human Development Index. Source: UNDP, 2008 update
8
9. Date Sill backward: Versus the US
12 China in 2010 China Japan
Real growth of GDP per capita,
Japan 1960s Hong Kong, Singapore,
10
Korea and Taiw an
8
6 Japan 1980s
%
4
2
0
0 25 50 75 100 125
GDP per capita, as % of US
9
10. Date
China’s capital stock
Total length of railroad Number of airports
KM
15,000
250,000
13,000
200,000
11,000
150,000 9,000
7,000
100,000
5,000
50,000 3,000
0 1,000
-1,000
India
US
UK
China
Korea
Brazil
Russia
Japan
France
Germany
India
US
UK
Brazil
Russia
China
Japan
Korea
France
Germany
Total length of paved roadway Number of vehicles per 1000 people
KM
7,000,000 900
6,000,000 800
700
5,000,000
600
4,000,000 500
3,000,000 400
2,000,000 300
200
1,000,000
100
0 0
India
US
UK
Korea
China
Japan
Brazil
France
Russia
Germany
India
US
UK
Korea
Japan
China
Brazil
France
Russia
Germany
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch calculations. 10
11. Date Flying geese: This time it’s domestic flight
Less developed regions in China could see
higher growth going forward as growth
trickles down from more developed areas.
Differentiation in GDP growth across
regions will provide rich implications for
investment.
Regional differentiation in GDP growth
% YoY
16
14
12
10
8
6
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
National Central East West
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch calculations.
11
12. Date The great leap forward in human capital
Million person
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
New ly enrolled Fresh graduates
12
14. Date Lewis turning point: Impact on wage
% YoY
24
20
16
12
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Wage at State Ow ned Enterprises Urban Collectiv es
14
15. Date Inflation: Chinese style
Jan 2001 =1
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Food Clothing Transport & Telecom
15
16. China could overtake the US on nominal GDP
Date
USD, bn
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
China GDP in USD US GDP
16
18. Date Signs of slowdown
Power consumption Oil processing and metal output
%YoY % YoY
30 40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
July
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pow er consumption 2nd industry 3rd industry Crude oil processing Ten non-ferrous metals
Cement and steel PMI and IP
% YoY % % YoY
50 60 25
40
55 20
30
20 50 15
10
45 10
0
-10 40 5
-20
35 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cement Crude steel PMI IP (RHS)
18
19. Date Analyze and predict the slowdown
The declining ratio of exports to GDP The three major demand-side components of GDP
% y oy
%
50
40 40
30
30 20
10
20 0
-10
10 -20
-30
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Real FAI grow th Real retail sales grow th
Real ex port grow th
Ratio of ex ports to GDP
The enlarging gap between FAI and GFCF in China
Value added of exports accounts for about half of
RMB, bn headline value of exports in China. In 2011,
30,000
exports contributed 13% of GDP.
25,000
20,000
In 2011, FAI and real estate FAI makes up 47%
15,000
and 10.0% of GDP respectively.
10,000
5,000
0
In value added terms (by stripping out imported
capital goods and raw materials for FAI), FAI
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gross Fix ed Capital Formation Headline FAI contributes 42% of China’s GDP. Value added of
consumption contributed 45% to GDP in 2011.
19
20. Date Consumption is still supported by robust income growth
% YoY
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Retail Sales Urban income per capita, y td Rural income per capita, y td
20
21. Date Sources of slowdown: External demand
%,y oy
6.0
Forecast
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
US EA Japan
21
22. Date Sharp decline of export growth
Exports, imports and trade surplus The sub-index Export orders of PMI and export growth
% YoY USD bn
80 40 % YoY
75 60
60 30 65 40
40 20 55 20
20 10 45 0
35 -20
0 0
25 -40
-20 -10
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
-40 -20
PMI: Ex port orders China's ex port grow th (RHS)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade balance (RHS) Exports Imports
Major destinations of China’s exports Processing imports and exports
% YoY
80 % YoY
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20
-20
-40
-40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Processing ex ports Processing imports
ASEAN EU Japan US
22
23. Date Property FAI growth has been falling
% YoY
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Infrastructure Manufacturing Real estate
23
24. Date Property FAI growth more stable than starts, but….
%YoY
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Property FAI New Home Starts
Home completion Home under construction
24
25. Date Policy-making amid the leadership transition
Start of China’s
housing reforms
Local govts’
five years
1998 2002/03 2007/08 2012/13
Hu and Wen’s 10 years
25
26. Date
The economics of drainage
New or Expansion
Manufacturing
Capacity
Relocation (from
coast to inland) √
FAI
Low-cost public housing √
Infrastructure
and housing Low profile infrastructure √
High profile infrastructure
Private housing
26
27. Date How do local govts fund infrastructure in the future?
The sharp difference between central and local govt • Over the past weekend, the heaviest rainstorm in Beijing in
61 years has killed 37 people and stranded numerous cars
RMB, bn
30000
on drowned streets and underpasses.
25000 • Why Beijing lacks some basic infrastructure despite
enormous investment in pass years? Why some
20000
infrastructure like highways is favored and some other
15000 infrastructures are disfavored by governments?
10000
5000 • The answer lies in a better understanding of the special
0 structure of the Chinese government and public finance and
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 the solution also lies in a fiscal reform. In China, with a few
Central Local exceptions like railway, almost all infrastructures were built
by local governments, which are prohibited from raising
money from bond markets but are under pressure to boost
GDP growth.
Fiscal revenue of local and central govt
• With this backdrop, local officials naturally biased their
RMB, bn
10,000 spending towards productive investment projects like
highways, roads, ports and industrial parks which could
8,000 boost GDP growth, while cut spending on drainage, subway,
6,000
social housing and hospital which are good for social welfare
but are less productive in the near term.
4,000
• It’s not all local government’s fault. Prohibited from
2,000
borrowing long-term funding from capital markets, local
0 governments have to rely on relatively short-term loans for
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 funding their infrastructure spending, but they have to favor
Central Local those profitable projects which could generate enough cash
flow for repaying bank loans.
27
28. Date Social housing: the great leap forward?
mn square meters
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Social housing Commodity housing
28
32. Date China’s grain consumption as percentage of global
Corn prices: China and US Soybean prices: China and US
RMB/Ton USD/Bushel RMB/Ton USD/Bushel
3,000 10 6,000 20
5,500 18
8 5,000 16
2,500
4,500 14
6
2,000 4,000 12
4 3,500 10
1,500 3,000 8
2
2,500 6
1,000 0 2,000 4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Corn: China Dalian Corn: US CME (RHS) Soy bean: China Dalian Soy bean: US CME (RHS)
Grain consumption composition in China Balance of China’s grain production and consumption
Million tons % w orld total
600 35
500 30
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
100 5
0 0
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Rice Wheat Corn Soy bean
Rice Wheat Corn Soy bean Production Consumption
32
33. Date Weak link between pork and grain prices
Weak link between pork and grain prices Food CPI breakdown
RMB/kg RMB/kg % YoY
35 5.0 100
4.5 80
30
4.0
60
25 3.5
3.0 40
20 2.5 20
2.0 0
15
1.5
10 1.0 -20
-40
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pork Corn (RHS) Soy bean meal (RHS)
CPI: Food: Grain CPI: Food: Vegetable CPI: Food: Pork
China’s hot inventory
Limited impact of US drought on China’s food inflation
(1) China is still relatively self-sufficient on grain (imports
% MoM mn
accounting for 9.5% of total food consumption);
4 480
3 470
2
(2) Almost all food imports are soybean, but China
460
1
imports 57% of soybeans from non-US markets and
450 soybean output in the US is less affected by droughts;
0
440
-1
-2 430 (3) The major channel from global corn and soybean
-3 420 prices to China’s inflation is pork, but China has its
-4 410 unique pork price cycle, which happens to be in its
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
downturn in 2H12 and pork prices’ response to feed
Number of liv e hogs (RHS) Liv e hogs Breeding sow s
grain price shocks is quite slow.
33
34. What does the Chinese government
Date will do and have to do?
• Ease property tightening measures by cancelling home purchase restrictions and
encouraging land/home supply;
• Cut RRR and ease/raise the 75% loan-to-deposit ratio;
• Increase fiscal spending of the central government;
• Open up long-term bond financing to provincial governments;
• Cut tax, especially value added and corporate income tax;
• Appropriately easing restrictions on lending to local governments
34
35. Date YoY change of home prices in top-tier cities
% YoY
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen
35
36. Date Regional differentiation of property prices
RMB per sqm
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
National Beijing Shanghai
36
37. Date Chinese cities are quite “small”
% of city population to national population
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Beijing Shanghai New Toky o Mex ico Moscow Bangkok London Seoul
York City
City
37
38. Fiscal revenue and expenditure of the
Date central government
%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal balance/GDP (RHS) Fiscal rev enue
Fiscal ex penditure
38
39. Date The history of local government debt
RMB, bn
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000 Forecast
4000
2000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total local gov t debt Local gov t total rev enue
39
40. Date The overestimated local government debt
Local government’s fiscal revenue
RMB, bn
LGFV debt is an important issue, and will
12000 drag the market down from time to time.
10000
But we believe it’s manageable. We don’t
8000
expect banking crisis, crash of FAI and
6000 collapse of the economy because:
4000
• It’s domestic debt;
2000
0 • Local govts are not that bad;
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
• Local govts fiscal revenue accounts for
Primary fiscal revenue Fiscal transfer from central govt Net Income from land sales
88% total national fiscal revenue, and it’s
The rising amount of local government debt
growing at 30% pace this year;
RMB tn % YoY • Massive fiscal transfer from central to
12 70
60
local;
10
50
8
40
• The low debt burden of the central
6
30 government;
4 20
2 10 • Total govt debt (central plus local)
0 0
should be about 45-50% of GDP
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total local govt debt Growth rate (RHS)
40
41. The 75% cap on loan-to-deposit ratio is not
Date untouchable
%
105
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RRR Loan-to-deposit Ratio
41
43. Date Currency: redback versus greenback
21 June 2010 =100
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
RMB-NEER RMB-USD
43
44. Date
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%YoY
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
IP
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Pow er use
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Pow er use: Industry
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
44
Can we trust China’s GDP statistics?
45. Date Know China’s economic structure first
Service and Agriculture is more stable than industry How about China’s service sector?
For the financial sector which is dominated by
%YoY
16
commercial banks, bank loan and deposit growth was
16.0% and 12.3% yoy respectively in 1H.
12
• In the sector serving international trade, export and
8
import growth registered 9.2% and 6.7% yoy respectively
in 1H.
4
• Retail sales registered a 14.4% nominal and 11.5% yoy
0
real growth in 1H, meaning decent growth of shops and
gasoline stations.
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
GDP 1st 2nd 3rd
• Spending on government service must be growing too.
The three major demand-side components of GDP Though only about a third of government expenditure is
used on government itself, growth of payment on
% y oy
government service should be quite close to growth of
50 fiscal expenditure, which was at 21.3% yoy in 1H, only
40 slightly below 21.6% in 2011.
30
20 • The number of passengers carried by all transportation
10 vehicles could be a good proxy for travel. Growth of that
0 actually slightly picked up to 8.2% yoy in the first five
-10
months of 2012 from 7.6% in 2011.
-20
-30
•Power consumption in the service sector grew 12.1%
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
yoy in 1H, only slightly down from 13.5% in 2011.
Real FAI grow th Real retail sales grow th
Real ex port grow th
45
46. Date Why power consumption is different production
Power consumption and production could be different In theory, power production and consumption should be
very close to each other as electricity is hardly storable.
%, y oy However, we believe power consumption released by the
30 National Energy Administration (NEA) is a better indicator
25 of actual power demand/output than NBS’ power output
20 data, which only include enterprises with annual sales
15
revenue above RMB5mn before 2011 and RMB20mn.
10
5
0 The difference between power production and consumption
-5 then depends on the power generated by smaller plants. If
-10 the supply condition of coal is tight, smaller plants generate
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
less power as they are in disadvantage compared with
large independent power producers (IPP) in securing coal
Pow er consumption Pow er production supply.
Service and Agriculture is more stable than industry Before Jan 2010, power production and consumption
largely moved together. After that, the supply condition of
tons, mn coal has been increasingly slack as reflected by climbing
100
inventory in selected IPPs. Consequently, the role played
80 by smaller plants has been increasing over time. After Jan
2010, most power consumption data released by the NEA
60 tends to be higher than production data released by the
NBS, which might underestimate actual power output by
40
excluding smaller electricity plants.
20
0
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
46
47. Date Then distorted power consumption structure
Breakdown of China’s power consumption
Power consumption of the service industry, which
2%
accounts for 43% of the economy but consumes only
12%
Agriculture
10.7% of total power, grew 11.3% yoy in 2Q (down
from 13.1% in 1Q and 13.5% in 2011).
11%
Growth of power consumption of industry (40% of the
Industry
economy and 74% of power demand) slumped to 3.0%
yoy in 2Q from 4.5% in 1Q and 11.8% in 2011.
Serv ice
Ferrous and non-ferrous metals consume 19% of
power but contributes only 5% to GDP and 12.5% to IP
Residential (The non-ferrous metals sector consumes 7.5% of
75% national power but contributions only 1.7% to China’s
GDP and 4.3% to IP). A 15ppt slowdown of the metal
sector could lower power consumption by about 3ppt,
but the impact on GDP is only 0.75ppt. Actually that’s
Regulations led to some volatility of metal output
roughly the case from 2011 to 2012.
%YoY
40 And the unique base effect
30
From summer 2010 Beijing started pushing local
governments to reach the special 11th Five-year-plan
20 energy efficiency target. Under pressure, many local
10 governments reduced or even cut off power supply to
some heavy users of power.
0
-10 However, right after end-2010, Beijing eased its push
on energy efficiency and local governments stopped
Mar-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
nagging manufacturers. Manufacturers were eagerly to
Ten non-ferrous metals Steel product Crude steel increase their inventories.
47