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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development




        How can WTO rules and regulations
           contribute to food security?

                          Geneva, July 2008


                               Ralf Peters
          Trade Negotiations and Commercial Diplomacy Branch
                    Division on International Trade
                           UNCTAD, Geneva
ralf.peters@unctad.org
Annual price movements
         300

         250

         200                                                                                  Meat
                                                                                              Dairy
         150                                                                                  Cereals
                                                                                              Oils
         100
                                                                                              Sugar
           50

             0
                    2000       2001        2002       2003        2004   2005   2006   2007


Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
2007/08 rice prices
   1000
    900
    800
    700
    600
    500
    400
    300
    200
    100
      0
          Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July


Source: USDA. Thai grade B
Contributing factors to food crisis
• Short term factors
   –   Rising oil prices
   –   Increase of bio-fuels
   –   Supply shortages: drought
   –   Speculation
   –   Export restrictions
   –   Lack of market structures that ensure fair competition
• Medium/long term factors
   –   Population growth
   –   Changing diet in emerging countries
   –   Falling stocks
   –   Weak agricultural sector in developing c. and LDCs
Impacts
• Net seller or buyer
  – Poor spend large share of income on food and are
    often net buyers
  – Risng food prices increases poverty (WB 2008)
  – Food bill doubled in low income food deficit DCs
LDC food imports
                                                                ~40% increase
              30100
              25100
              20100
                                                                        2007
       $m




              15100
                                                                        2008
              10100
               5100
                100




                                                                  al
                                                            r
                                            y
                        ls




                                                   t
                                    ils




                                                 ea



                                                          ga
                                            ir
                      ea




                                                                   t
                                  O




                                                                To
                                          Da



                                                 M



                                                       Su
                   er



                               le
                  C



                             ab
                              t
                           ge
                        Ve




Source: FAO
WTO provisions and food
               security
•   Tariffs
•   Export restrictions
•   Special products
•   Safeguards
•   Domestic Support
Can Doha solve the crisis?
•   Liberalization of agricultural sector
•   Rising world prices
•   Domestic prices may fall (not LDCs)
•   Shift in production to developing countries
Change in production
                                                  Full liberalisation
                            10.00

                             5.00

                             0.00
              Change in %




                                                                        World
                                         Po at




                              O ds, e d
                             O ar , ra w
                                                 ce
                                       vin ck



                                      ilk ltry



                                                  at



                              Su gar e




                                                  p.
                                        ds p.
                                                                        Developed
                                          W .
                                                  c




                                                 z
                                                 e




                                             he




                                               ro
                                    e e em
                                             on
                                   Bo esto




                                                n
                                             Ri

                                     Su ai
                             -5.00
                                           em

                                              u




                                   e e re fi



                                           ,t
                                             ,
                                           M
                                         ,c




                                           t
                                                                        Developing
                                         v
                                      Li




                                    M




                                    g
                                                                        LDC




                                i ls
                            -10.00


                              ils
                            -15.00

                            -20.00


Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
Change in global production
                                                  Full liberalisation
                                                              World


                            1.00

                            0.50

                            0.00
              Change in %




                                              t




                                                                                                 ed
                                                                                                  w
                                                                        e
                                            k




                                          try




                                           at




                                                                                                 ze
                                         ea




                                                                                                 p.
                                                                                                 p.
                            -0.50
                                           c.
                              Bo toc




                                                                         c




                                                                                               ra
                                       he




                                                                                              ro
                                                                                             em
                                       on




                                                                                             fin
                                                                      Ri

                                                                                              ai
                                       ul
                                     em




                                                                                           ,t
                                     es




                                                                                           r,
                                                                             M
                                    Po




                                     W
                                    ,c




                                                                                          re

                                                                                          ,t
                                                                                        ga
                                 vin




                                                                                        ds
                               v




                                il k




                            -1.00




                                                                                      ds
                                                                                       r,
                            Li




                                                                                     Su




                                                                                    ee
                                                                                    ga
                              M




                                                                                   ee

                                                                                i ls
                                                                               Su

                                                                              ils

                                                                              O
                            -1.50




                                                                             O
                            -2.00

                            -2.50


Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
Results
• Change in Production
  – Production in developed countries mostly falling
  – Production in developing countries mostly increasing;
    but e.g. in case of wheat from low base
  – World production increasing or slightly decreasing;
    but changes small
• Self sufficiency increasing in DCs but world
  production not always increasing
  – But scenario too ambitious
  – Doha mostly about squeezing out the water (tariffs in DCs
    and DS in developed)
Recommendation
• Doha contribution limited
   – But should continue
• Developing countries
   – Investment in agriculture to increase productivity
   – Research and development
   – Temporarily subsidising inputs to increase production
• Developed countries
   – Reduce or eliminate trade distorting subsidies
   – Careful with bio-fuels
   – Technology transfer
   – Support DCs (ODA for Agriculture dropped by 65% in 20
     years)
Note: This publication has been made available by CSEND with the agrement of the author.




                        The Centre for Socio-Eco-Nomic Development (CSEND) aims at
promoting equitable, sustainable and integrated development through dialogue and
institutional learning.

http://www.csend.org/programmes-a-services
http://www.csend.org/about-csend
http://www.csend.org/project-samples
http://www.csend.org/csend-group
http://www.csend.org/knowledge-area
http://www.csend.org/csend-portraits
http://www.csend.org/community-of-artists




Diplomacy Dialogue is a branch of the Centre for Socio-Eco-Nomic Development
(CSEND), a non-profit R&D organization based in Geneva, Switzerland since 1993.

http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/mission
http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/about-us
http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/projects
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http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/conferences
http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/dialogue-forum
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20080717 food crisis_session 2_wto rule contribution to food security_peters

  • 1. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development How can WTO rules and regulations contribute to food security? Geneva, July 2008 Ralf Peters Trade Negotiations and Commercial Diplomacy Branch Division on International Trade UNCTAD, Geneva ralf.peters@unctad.org
  • 2. Annual price movements 300 250 200 Meat Dairy 150 Cereals Oils 100 Sugar 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
  • 3. 2007/08 rice prices 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Source: USDA. Thai grade B
  • 4. Contributing factors to food crisis • Short term factors – Rising oil prices – Increase of bio-fuels – Supply shortages: drought – Speculation – Export restrictions – Lack of market structures that ensure fair competition • Medium/long term factors – Population growth – Changing diet in emerging countries – Falling stocks – Weak agricultural sector in developing c. and LDCs
  • 5. Impacts • Net seller or buyer – Poor spend large share of income on food and are often net buyers – Risng food prices increases poverty (WB 2008) – Food bill doubled in low income food deficit DCs
  • 6. LDC food imports ~40% increase 30100 25100 20100 2007 $m 15100 2008 10100 5100 100 al r y ls t ils ea ga ir ea t O To Da M Su er le C ab t ge Ve Source: FAO
  • 7. WTO provisions and food security • Tariffs • Export restrictions • Special products • Safeguards • Domestic Support
  • 8. Can Doha solve the crisis? • Liberalization of agricultural sector • Rising world prices • Domestic prices may fall (not LDCs) • Shift in production to developing countries
  • 9. Change in production Full liberalisation 10.00 5.00 0.00 Change in % World Po at O ds, e d O ar , ra w ce vin ck ilk ltry at Su gar e p. ds p. Developed W . c z e he ro e e em on Bo esto n Ri Su ai -5.00 em u e e re fi ,t , M ,c t Developing v Li M g LDC i ls -10.00 ils -15.00 -20.00 Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
  • 10. Change in global production Full liberalisation World 1.00 0.50 0.00 Change in % t ed w e k try at ze ea p. p. -0.50 c. Bo toc c ra he ro em on fin Ri ai ul em ,t es r, M Po W ,c re ,t ga vin ds v il k -1.00 ds r, Li Su ee ga M ee i ls Su ils O -1.50 O -2.00 -2.50 Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM
  • 11. Results • Change in Production – Production in developed countries mostly falling – Production in developing countries mostly increasing; but e.g. in case of wheat from low base – World production increasing or slightly decreasing; but changes small • Self sufficiency increasing in DCs but world production not always increasing – But scenario too ambitious – Doha mostly about squeezing out the water (tariffs in DCs and DS in developed)
  • 12. Recommendation • Doha contribution limited – But should continue • Developing countries – Investment in agriculture to increase productivity – Research and development – Temporarily subsidising inputs to increase production • Developed countries – Reduce or eliminate trade distorting subsidies – Careful with bio-fuels – Technology transfer – Support DCs (ODA for Agriculture dropped by 65% in 20 years)
  • 13. Note: This publication has been made available by CSEND with the agrement of the author. The Centre for Socio-Eco-Nomic Development (CSEND) aims at promoting equitable, sustainable and integrated development through dialogue and institutional learning. http://www.csend.org/programmes-a-services http://www.csend.org/about-csend http://www.csend.org/project-samples http://www.csend.org/csend-group http://www.csend.org/knowledge-area http://www.csend.org/csend-portraits http://www.csend.org/community-of-artists Diplomacy Dialogue is a branch of the Centre for Socio-Eco-Nomic Development (CSEND), a non-profit R&D organization based in Geneva, Switzerland since 1993. http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/mission http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/about-us http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/projects http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/publications http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/conferences http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/dialogue-forum http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/partners http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/links http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/contact http://www.diplomacydialogue.org/sitemap