1. The document discusses how climate change is impacting agriculture through changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and increased evapotranspiration. 2. It provides examples of observed and projected changes in potato yields and irrigation needs in Europe under different climate scenarios by mid-century. 3. Adaptation strategies are needed to address water scarcity issues exacerbated by climate change, such as more efficient irrigation systems, shifting to drought-resistant crops, and cooperative water management.

1. Adaptng t a changi
i o ng
cl at
i e
m
Dr Jery Knox
. r

2. O uti
lne
1. Impacts on agroclimate
2. Impacts on potato yield and water use
3. Responses - adaptation

3. O bs ved Eur
er opean annual
m ean ai t per ur
r em at e
2.00
1.75 2008 10th warmest on record
e 1.50
g
a
r 1990s warmest
e 1.25
v decade in last 100
a
9 1.00 years
9
8
1
-
0 0.75
5
8
1 0.50
o
t
d 0.25
e
r )
a C
p 0.00
mo
o (
c -0.25
,
n
o
i
t
a
i -0.50
v
e -0.75
d
e
r
u
t -1.00
a
r
e
p -1.25
m
e
T -1.50
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Annual deviations (land only)
10-year moving average (land only)

4. C l at w i contnue t
i e l
m l i o
change
Global surface
temperature increase:
<10% probability less
than 1.5 degrees
Likely range 2.0-4.5
deg with best guess
3.0 degrees
Higher than 4.5 deg
cannot be excluded

5. C l at change i pact
i e
m m
pat ays
hw

6. C l at varabit
i e
m i lyi
drves irgaton
i ri i
dem and
100
Evapotranspiration (ET)
90
80
70
60
50
40 Rainfall (P)
30
20
10
0
ov
l
pr
ar
ct
Ju
ug
ay
n
b
n
ec
p
Ju
Fe
Ja
A
O
M
N
Se
A
M
D

7. Pr ct changes i
edi ed n
evapotans r i (
r piaton ET)

8. Pr ct changes i r nf l
edi ed n ai al
( AB,2050s
NI )
2050L 2050H
60
40
Precipitation anomaly (%) .
20
0
‐20
‐40
‐60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

9. Long- er aver
t m age
agr i at ( 961 90)
oclm e 1 -

10. Average agr i at
oclm e
Low em isons
si
2050s

11. Average agr i at
oclm e
Hi em isons
gh si
2050s

12. C urentw at r our
r er es ce
sr s
tes
(Source: EA, 2008) (Source: PCL, 2009)

13. Pot o pr
at oducton and
i
w at r our
er es ces
5% 8%
9%
22% 28%
42%
25%
20%
29%
12%
In the future, potato production likely move onto new land with
secure water supplies

14. C as s udi
e t es
Farm site (2003-08)
LF Papworth and Son, Felmingham
Maris piper (pre-pack)
Sandy loam soil
Overhead irrigation
Scheduled for scab control and bulking
Experimental site (2003-08)
Cambridge University Farm

15. O bserved v sm ul ed
i at
yi ds f bas i
el or elne

16. Pr ct changes i yi d
edi ed n el
( ha-1)2050s
t

17. Fut e irgaton needs
ur ri i
( m )2050s
m
1. Future ‘average year’ more like a current ‘dry
year’
2. Irrigation schemes could fail to meet future
peak irrigation demand in 50% of years

18. C l at uncerai y -
i e
m t nt
i pact on irgaton ( m )
m s ri i m
1995, typical dry year
0.007
0.006
Probability density (per mm)
0.005
2050L
0.004 2050H
Actual
0.003
0.002
0.001
0
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Irrigation requirement (mm)

19. I pacton
m
irgaton cos s
ri i t
Increase in daily peak
• Large pumps and main pipes
• More mobile irrigators needed for given area
• But solid set costs are mostly not affected – drip, centre pivot
Increase in annual application
• Does not necessarily impact equipment costs
• Larger reservoir needed
• Higher fuel and labour costs
For existing irrigators, on-farm irrigation cost increases will be
proportionately smaller than irrigation need increases

20. W or s f …
k o ar
W or pl
k anned…
Modelling assumed unchanged practices - but there will be
autonomous adaptation even if not planned adaptation
• Earlier planting and harvest dates
• Change to better adapted varieties
• Less use of very light soils
• Move to different region – northwards and westwards
• GM technology

21. Sum m ar -t
y he
adapt i m es age
aton s
Water is already scarce
Climate change will make it even scarcer
Adaptation will be essential – preferably planned
Adaptation reinforces current trends - many adaptations
are “no regret” - they make sense
Beware of mal-adaptations - changes that climate
change render worthless

22. Adapt i – w hat
aton
ot s ar doi
her e ng
Building reservoirs
Starting to work together
forming ‘water abstractor groups’
Making better use of existing supplies