This document outlines 20 megatrends that are expected to have a significant impact over the next 15-30 years. Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation that impact all regions and societal subsystems. Some of the key megatrends discussed include demographic changes like population aging and migration, the rise of individualism, advances in health and mobility, increasing cultural diversity, the digital lifestyle, knowledge-based economies, and changes in business models and the world of work.

1. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
04: WOMEN ON THE RISE
0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
M E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

2. M eg a t ren d s a re l o n g -t erm p ro cesses o f t ra n sf o rm a t i o n w i t h a b road scop e and a
d ra m a t i c i m p a ct . T h ey a re co n si d ered t o b e p o w erf u l f a ct o rs w h ich shap e f ut ure
markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:
T I M E H O RI Z O N
M eg a t ren d s ca n b e o b serv ed o v er d eca d es. Q u a n t i t a t i v e, em p irically unam bi-
g u o u s i n d i ca t o rs a re a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e p resen t . T h ey ca n b e p ro j e ct ed – w it h high
p ro b a b i l i t i es – a t l ea st 1 5 y ea rs i n t o t h e f u t u re.
RE A C H
M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct co m p reh en si v el y o n a l l reg i o n s, a n d resu l t in m ult idim ensi-
o n a l t ra n sf o rm a t i o n s o f a l l so ci et a l su b sy st em s, w h et h er i n p o l it ics, societ y, or
THE TREND TOWARDS eco n o m y. T h ei r p reci se f ea t u res v a ry a cco rd i n g t o t h e reg i o n i n q uest ion.
M E G AT R E N D S INTENSITY OF IMPACT
M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct p o w erf u l l y a n d ext en si v el y o n a l l a ct o rs, w het her it is go-
v ern m en t s, i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h ei r co n su m p t i o n p a t t ern s, o r c orp orat ions and
t h ei r st ra t eg i es.
T h e t erm “ M eg a t ren d s” w a s co i n ed b y J o h n N a i sb i t t , w h o , 2 5 y e ars ago, p ublis-
h ed a b o o k o f t h e sa m e t i t l e. “ M eg a t ren d s” p resen t ed 1 0 f a r-re aching develop -
m en t s w h i ch p a i n t ed a p i ct u re o f o u r f u t u re a t t h e t u rn o f t h e m illennium . The
b o o k b eca m e a b est sel l er a n d m a d e N a i sb i t t a t ra i l b l a z er f o r social and eco-
n o m i c t ren d resea rch . W i t h h i n d si g h t , o n e h a s t o a ck n o w l ed g e graciously t hat
h i s a n a l y ses d i d n o t l a ck t h e n ecessa ry v i si o n . H e co i n ed , e. g ., t he exp ression
“ G l o b a l i sa t i o n ” , reco g n i sed ev ery i n d i v i d u a l ’ s i n crea si n g resp onsibilit y f or his
o w n l i f e, en v i si o n ed t h e i n f o rm a t i o n a n d m u l t i -o p t i o n so ci et y, and realised how
d ecen t ra l , n et w o rk i n g st ru ct u res w o u l d d o m i n a t e t h e n ew m i l l e nnium .

3. To d a y, m eg a t ren d s h a v e b eco m e a rel ev a n t st ra t eg i c i ssu e i n m any corp orat e
h ea d qu a rt ers. S i em en s, t o n a m e a si g n i f i ca n t exa m p l e, h a s st ressed t he im p or-
t a n ce o f m eg a t ren d s f o r i t s b u si n ess o n v a ri o u s o cca si o n s. D riv en by it s CEO,
K l a u s K l ei n f el d , S i em en s h a s st a rt ed t o re-a l i g n i t s b u si n ess f i e lds f ocussing on
t h e m eg a t ren d s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e a n d u rb a n i sa t i o n . O n l y re cent ly, Z_p unkt
co o p era t ed w i t h S i em en s’ Co rp o ra t e S t ra t eg y d ep a rt m en t i n creat ing a corp orat e
m a n a g em en t rep o rt o n t h e m eg a t ren d s cru ci a l f o r t h e co m p a n y.
S o m e m eg a t ren d s, su ch a s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e, h ea l t h , o r m o bilit y, hav e f ound
a p l a ce o n m a n y a g en d a s. E xp eri en ce a l so sh o w s, h o w ev er, t h a t businesses dif -
f er i n t h ei r ev a l u a t i o n o f sp eci f i c m eg a t ren d s – t h ei r rel a t i v e st rat egic signif i-
ca n ce b ei n g d et erm i n ed b y a co m p a n y ’ s f o cu s o n sp eci f i c m arket s, p roduct s,
THE TREND TOWARDS a n d cu st o m ers. W i t h i t s n ew g l o b a l m a xi m “ T h e Co n su m er D ecides” , Nike is
reco g n i si n g a m eg a t ren d w h i ch w e d escri b e a s a n ew p h a se o f i n dividualiz at ion.
M E G AT R E N D S G en era l E l ect ri c, o n t h e o t h er h a n d , f o cu ses o n si m i l a r i ssu es as it s com p et it or
S i em en s, sh o w ca sed b y i t s n ew “ E co m a g i n a t i o n ” a d v ert i si n g cam p aign.
H o w ca n co m p a n i es crea t e v a l u e f ro m m eg a t ren d s? Va l u a b l e i n sight s w ill only
b e g a i n ed i f i n f o rm a t i o n o n a m eg a t ren d i s t ra n sl a t ed i n t o a com p any’s very
o w n co n t ext , a n d i n t o f u t u re i n n o v a t i o n f i el d s, m a rk et s, a n d p roduct s. Not t he
t ren d a s su ch i s o f i n t erest , b u t i t s st ra t eg i c i m p l i ca t i o n s. I f y o u w ant t o p rep are
y o u rsel f i n t i m e f o r t h e f u t u re m a rk et s em erg i n g f ro m m eg a t rends, Z_p unkt can
o f f er a w i d e ra n g e o f t ri ed -a n d -t est ed , b u si n ess-sp eci f i c a p p roaches: Whet her
i t ’ s l ect u res o r o n e-d a y i n h o u se w o rk sh o p s, i d en t i f i ca t i o n o f st rat egic innov at i-
o n f i el d s o r n ew b u si n ess f i el d s.

4. M E G AT R E N D S
01: DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
. In the West, ageing and shrinking populations
. In the developing countries, a baby boom
. Increasing migration streams
. Demographic shifts

5. M E G AT R E N D S
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N
REACHES
A N E W S TA G E
. Individualism, a global phenomenon
. Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
. From mass markets to micro markets
. Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics

6. M E G AT R E N D S
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
. Increasing health awareness and higher
personal responsibility
. Health tech – health style
. New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
. New converging markets (food, pharma-
ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)

7. M E G AT R E N D S
04: WOMEN
ON THE RISE
. Women are integrated into the working world
. “Female” soft skills become more important
. Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
. Work-life balance

8. M E G AT R E N D S
0 5 : C U LT U R A L
DIVERSITY
. Plural ways of life between tradition
and today
. Value systems compete globally
. Emergence of hybrid culture

9. M E G AT R E N D S
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S
OF MOBILITY
. Globally, mobility increases
. Barriers to mobility increase
. Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
. New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies

10. M E G AT R E N D S
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
. Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
. Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
. Virtual business worlds

11. M E G AT R E N D S
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R ,
LEARNING FROM
N AT U R E
. Biology becomes the leading science
. Renaissance of bionics
. Swarm intelligence: New forms of social
organisation

12. M E G AT R E N D S
09: UBIQUITOUS
INTELLIGENCE
. IT-revolution continues
. Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces,
new surfaces
. Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and
robotics
. Transparent society: Surveillance and control

13. M E G AT R E N D S
10: TECHNOLOGY
CONVERGENCE
. Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
. Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
. NBIC-convergence

14. M E G AT R E N D S
1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
. Shift to Asia and a new role for the West
. Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
. Emergence of a global middle class
. Globalised Flow of Capital

15. M E G AT R E N D S
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
. Education and learning as a basis
. Innovation as a key driver and
competition factor
. New global knowledge elite – the creative class

16. M E G AT R E N D S
13: BUSINESS
ECOSYSTEMS
. Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
. New value-adding chains (customer integra-
tion, coopetition)
. Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to
new markets

17. M E G AT R E N D S
14: CHANGES IN THE
WORK WORLD
. Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
. Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
. Flexible, interactive work structures

18. M E G AT R E N D S
15: NEW CONSUMPTION
P AT T E R N S
. The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
. Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
. Sustainable consumption in the West
(LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)

19. M E G AT R E N D S
1 6 : ENERGY AND
RESOURCE REVERSAL
. Strategic resource scarcities (fossil
fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals)
. Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
. Revolution in energy efficiency
. Decentralised energy supply

20. M E G AT R E N D S
1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
. CO 2 -discharges and global rise of temperatures
. Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
. Clean technologies
. Corporate responsibility increases

21. M E G AT R E N D S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
. Megacities grow strongly
. Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
. New forms of residence, living, and
participation

22. M E G AT R E N D S
19: NEW POLITICAL
WORLD ORDER
. China and India join the ranks
of world powers
. Crisis of Western democracies
. Russia’s renaissance
. Africa awakes

23. M E G AT R E N D S
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S
T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L
SECURITY
. Global risk society
. Festering cultural conflicts and failed states
. Global terrorism
. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

24. I f y o u a re i n t erest ed i n m eg a t ren d s, p l ea se co n t a ct
C O N TA C T K l a u s B u rm ei st er, o u r M a n a g i n g D i rect o r ( b u rm ei st er@ z -p u n k t . de) , or
H o l g er G l o ck n er, o u r D i rect o r Fo resi g h t Co n su l t i n g ( g l o ck n er@z - p unkt .de) .
ABOUT Z_PUNKT Z _ p u n k t i s a co n su l t i n g f i rm f o r st ra t eg y a n d i n n o v a t i o n . We are exp ert s in
Co rp o ra t e Fo resi g h t , i . e. , i n t ra n sl a t i n g t ren d a n d f u t u re resea r ch int o t he day-
t o -d a y w o rk o f st ra t eg i c m a n a g em en t . S i n ce 1 9 9 7, w e h a v e been sup p ort ing
b u si n esses a n d p u b l i c i n st i t u t i o n s i n Fo resi g h t Resea rch a n d Consult ing.
Z _ p u n k t G m b H T h e Fo resi g h t Co m p a n y
A n n a -S ch n ei d er-S t ei g 2 • Rh ei n a u h a f en
5 0 6 78 K ö l n
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h t t p : / / w w w. z -p u n k t . d e
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w a t k i n s@ z -p u n k t . d e

25. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
04: WOMEN ON THE RISE
0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
0 7 : D I Berlin L I F
Copyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Köln KarlsruheG I TA L 2008E S T Y L E
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
M E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
Graphics and Design: www.infomationdesign.de 2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y