Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση, σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019 στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel. Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html

1. Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009-2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
MIDDLE INCOME CLASSES IN GREECE
DURING THE CRISIS: QUANTITATIVE
DIMENSIONS
Eleni Kanavitsa1
Panos Tsakloglou2
1Athens University of Economics and Business
2 Athens University of Economics and Business,
IZA (Bonn) and Hellenic Observatory (LSE)
e κύκλος
Αθήνα, 19/6/2019

2. Definitions, OECD (2019)“Under Pressure: The
Squeezed Middle Class”
• “Poor”: 0-50% of median income
• “Lower Income”: 50-75% of median income
• “Middle Income”: 75-200% of median income
• “Lower Middle Income”: 75-125% of median income
• “Upper Middle Income”: 125-200% of median income
• “Upper Income”: 200%+ of median income

6. The general picture
 Decline in GDP per capita -26.0%
2007-2013
 Increase in disposable income in
2008 and 2009
 Consolidation effort relied
extensively on tax increases
 Decline in mean (equiv.) disposable
income -44.8%
2009-2015
 Flat income profiles after 2013
 Peak of unemployment in 2013
(27.5%)
 Gradual decline in unemployment
after 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GDP per capita, Mean disposable income and Unemployment rate;
2007-2016
Mean Equivalized Disposable Income GDP per capita Unemployment Rate

7. The general picture
 Dramatic shift of the income
distribution to the left
 Distribution became more
“compact”
 Lower inequality
 But more observations with
very low incomes
 Higher inequality

8. Inequality: Trends
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inequality trends 2007-2016 (2007: 100)
Gini ATK0.25 ATK0.75 MLD
 Different SWFs behind inequality
indices
 Different types of sensitivities
 Non-uniform pattern
 2008/7 and 2008/2009 Intersecting Lorenz
curves
 Decline 2011/12
 Taxation
 Sharp rise in 2011/12
 Effects of unemployment
 Again in 2012/13 (but MLD)
 Ditto + child benefits
 Declines in 2013/14 and 2015/16
 Effect of “social dividend”
 By 2016 most indices below their 2007
values
 Contrast with claims in public discourse

9. Population shares and relative mean incomes: 2007, 2013 & 2016
Population Group
Population share Relative mean income Change
2007 2013 2016 2007 2013 2016 2007-16
A B C D E F G
Socio-economic group of household head
Self-employed with employees 5.2 3.8 3.6 1.50 1.42 1.36 -44.0
Self-employed without employees (agr.) 5.1 4.6 5.1 0.64 0.59 0.83 0.3
Self-employed without employees (non-agr.) 9.7 9.0 7.9 1.02 1.13 1.06 -36.3
Employee (private sector) 21.6 16.9 19.9 1.00 1.10 1.07 -33.4
Employee (public sector) 15.2 11.2 11.5 1.28 1.26 1.26 -37.5
Unemployed 3.3 13.0 11.1 0.68 0.62 0.59 -45.2
Pensioner 24.5 29.5 27.9 0.96 1.08 1.09 -28.0
Other 15.3 12.0 13.0 0.78 0.78 0.75 -39.7
Educational level of household head
Less than primary 7.1 4.5 3.8 0.66 0.71 0.75 -25.8
Primary 28.9 22.6 20.8 0.78 0.77 0.80 -33.8
Lower secondary 10.1 11.0 10.0 0.81 0.76 0.79 -35.7
Upper secondary 29.4 32.0 32.6 0.99 0.94 0.95 -38.6
Post-secondary non-tertiary 3.9 5.7 6.6 1.08 0.95 0.97 -41.1
Tertiary 20.6 24.2 26.1 1.52 1.47 1.35 -46.5
GREECE 100.0 100.0 100.0 14377.7 8671.2 8965.75 -37.6

10. Income classes I: Population shares
• No dramatic changes
• 2007-2012
“Poor”: +3.5%
“Lower Income”: +1.3%
“Upper Income”: -2.2% (2011)
“Middle Income”: -3.3%
• Recovery after 2012
• 2007 and 2016 shares almost identical
• Middle income classes close to 60%
35% + 25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Population Shares of Income Classes
200%+ of median
125%-200% of median
75%-125% of median
50%-75% of median
0%-50% of median

11. Income classes II: Mean incomes
• (Almost) equipropotionate changes
Increase 2007-2009
(Sharp) decline 2009-2013
Flat profile thereafter
Doubts about 2016 data
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real Mean Equivalized Disposable Income of income classes
0%-50% of median
50%-75% of median
75%-125% of median
125%-200% of median
200%+ of median

12. Income classes III: Income shares
• (Significant) changes 2007-2011
Driven, primarily, by changes in population
shares
“Poor”: +0.8% (2012)
“Lower Income”: +1.5% (2012)
“Upper Income”: -4.8%
“Middle Income”: -3.5%
• Return to previous pattern after 2012
• 2007 and 2016 shares almost identical
• Middle income classes close to 63%
30% + 23%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Income Shares of income classes
200%+ of median
125%-200% of median
75%-125% of median
50%-75% of median
0%-50% of median

13. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Poor" by Occupational Status of HH head
Other
Unemployed
Pensioner
Employee (publ)
Employee (priv)
Self-employed
Employer
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Lower Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head
Other
Unemployed
Pensioner
Employee (publ)
Employee (priv)
Self-employed
Employer
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of “Middle Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head
Other
Unemployed
Pensioner
Employee (publ)
Employee (priv)
Self-employed
Employer
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of “Upper Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head
Other
Unemployed
Pensioner
Employee (publ)
Employee (priv)
Self-employed
Employer

14. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Poor" by Educational Level of HH head
tertiary
upper secondary
lower secondary
primary or less
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Lower Income" class by Educational Level of HH head
tertiary
upper secondary
lower secondary
primary or less
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Middle Income" class by Educational Level of HH head
tertiary
upper secondary
lower secondary
primary or less
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Upper Income" class by Educational Level of HH head
tertiary
upper
secondary
lower secondary
primary or less

15. -20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Poor"
Benefits
Pensions
Property Tax
PIT & SICs
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Lower Income" class
Benefits
Pensions
Property Tax
PIT & SICs
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Middle Income" class
Benefits
Pensions
Property Tax
PIT & SICs
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Upper Inc." class
Benefits
Pensions
Property Tax
PIT & SICs

16. Conclusions
• Middle class not easy to define
• Large middle class associated with low inequality (+ democracy + …)
• During the crisis, very large decline in average income, no substantial
changes in inequality, changes in population shares and mean incomes of
particular population groups
• Esp. HHs headed by unemployed and pensioners
• Population and income share of the middle class did not change
considerably
• However, its composition did change substantially
• Doubtful whether it was affected particularly adversely by increases in
taxation

17. Thank you very much
for your attention!