This document summarizes work on assessing the impact of drought on forest ecosystems in Bulgaria, Lithuania, Slovenia, and Ukraine. The project partners will use climate change scenarios from the WorldClim dataset to analyze changes in temperature and precipitation between 1961-1990, 2050, and 2070. They will use the Holdridge life zone classification model and De Martonne drought index to evaluate potential impacts. Maps show changes in temperature, drought index, and Holdridge zones for the pilot area in Ukraine between current conditions and 2050/2070 under different climate scenarios. The outputs will include action plans for forest management in 2050 and 2070 to mitigate drought impacts.

1. Assessment of drought impact on
forest ecosystem
Activity 5.2
Galia Bardarska
2nd IDMP CEE Workshop
Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

2. Partners & Outputs
Bulgaria, Lithuania, Slovenia and Ukraine
Forests are significantly dependent on water regime and, in turn,
have a significant impact on the water regime of territories.
Development a good practice for forest
management and protection in drought periods

3. 3
Border of area
Forest-Steppe
Mixed Forests
Steppe
Area Bulgaria Lithuania Slovenia
Ukraine
(pilot
area)
Total
Land
area,
1000 ha
11100 6530 2027 8193 27850
Forest
area,
1000 ha
3927 2160 1253 1095 8435
Project pilot area in
north-east part of
Ukraine
Sumy
Kharkiv
Lugansk
GWP IDMP meeting,
Ljubljana,8-9.04.2014

4. Milestone 2: Establishment of methodology for assessment of drought
impact on forest ecosystems in 2050 and 2070
Bulgaria: Vesselin Alexandrov and Ivan Raev
Lithuania: Dontas Valiukas and Gintautas Stankunavicius
Slovenia: Andrej Kobler and Lado Kutnar
Ukraine: Igor Buksha, Maksym Buksha, Tatiana Pyvovar
Progress Report
Training Workshop: IDMP CEE, Activity 5.2,
Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia,
14 – 15 November 2013

5. During the workshop in Ljubljana the
participants agreed on the opportunity to
use the WorldClim dataset :
http://www.worldclim.org/node/1
It was recommended to use the HadGEM2-AO (HD) climate
change scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s.
The 2100 should be dropped out of the project study
because:
• is far away from the recent time;
• the dataset is already developed for the 2070s;
• the dataset is already with high spatial resolution (less
than 1 km);
• there is no sense to develop another time period i.e. 2100
instead of 2070s as it is time and costs consuming.

6. Surfer GIS

7. ARCGIS

8. Monthly temperature August 1961-1990

9. Mean annual temperature 1961-1990

10. Zoom – Bulgaria Mean annual temperature 1961-1990

11. Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 - scenario1

12. T2
Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 – scenario 2

13. Diagram of the Holdridge Classification Scheme (Holdridge, 1967)
The primary approach for evaluating
the potential impacts of drought on
forest ecosystems will include the use
of the Holdridge life zone
classification model.

14. For the quantitative assessment of the drought
impacts, the values of the drought index after
De Martonne will be implemented.
J = P/(T+10) (1)
where: P and T are the annual precipitation and air
temperature

15. De Martonne index (1961-1990),
Bulgaria
De Martonne index 2050,
Bulgaria
•Zone A - index with value under 20 (in red color on the map): lasting deficit in
moistening, which leads to destruction of the forest ecosystems;
•Zone B - index from 21 to 30 (in yellow color on the map): lasting
disturbances in the moistening;
•Zone C - index from 31 to 40 (in green color on the map): disturbances in the
moistening in some years;
•Zone D - index from 41 to 70 (in blue color on the map): optimal conditions in
the moistening;
•Zone E - index above 70 (in purple color on the map): over moistening.

16. 1960-1990 Holdridge
Life Zones in Ukraine
16

17. Pilot area 2050_HD26 Holdridge Life Zones
17

18. Pilot area 2070_HD26
Holdridge Life Zones
18

19. Pilot area 2050_HD45 Holdridge
Life Zones
19

20. Pilot area 2070_HD45
Holdridge Life Zones
20

21. After determination of vulnerability
zones of the forest ecosystems and
forest life zones in drought, the
mitigation and adaptation measures
will be developed for each zone.
Main outputs:
1. Development of action plans
for 2050 and 2070
2. Contribution at Drought
Guidelines of IDMP

22. • Determination of vulnerability zones and some
measures to October 2014
• No change of the plan instead of 2100 with 2070
• PRG remarks will be taken into account in the
process of team’s work as well as at final report of
the case study
Plans