Borrowing costs for middle-market debt issuers generally declined during the third quarter, despite a modest increase in leverage levels and little change in benchmark rates. The Fed, as expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, but did announce a program to gradually reduce its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing) to $3 trillion over the next three years. Thus, the prevailing combination of low borrowing costs, high leveragability and a generally benign default rate outlook, presents an attractive backdrop for issuance. This "perfect storm" of market conditions provides a compelling (albeit narrowing) window for middle-market issuers.
Corporate borrowing activity in the second quarter was robust, particularly in the middle-market, which exceeded the record volume seen in the first quarter. Supply and demand for middle-market credit became more balanced, as opportunistic issuers came to market and/or increased issuance size. Near team market conditions remain compelling for middle-market issues as borrowers are capitalizing on strong institutional appetite by pursing favorably crafted deals for acquisition, recapitalization and growth financing.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss recent changes in the administration of unclaimed property programs in the states of Delaware, Illinois and Texas, highlighting the need for companies to review their reporting requirements to ensure compliance and minimize the risk of audit.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss the genesis of the new Certified in Entity and Intangibles Valuation ("CEIV") credential that was introduced this year by three of the Valuation Professional Organizations to enhance the transparency, quality and consistency of valuations for financial reporting purposes. The article also discusses the pathway to obtaining the credential and the Mandatory Performance Framework.
Other Topics Covered Include:
BEPS Action 13 and what companies need to know to satisfy the new requirements
Highlights from the 2017 Global Enforcement Review
Duff & Phelps' new transfer pricing documentation tool - BEPS Central Tracker
Industry market multiples for North America and Europe
The overall outlook for 2017 Canadian M&A activity remains moderately positive, despite the decrease in the number of Canadian companies sold in 2016. Corporate balance sheets are flush with cash, with corporations actively looking for quality investments. Interest rates remain low, and oil prices are showing signs of improvement. Private Equity firms also have large cash holdings and often see Canadian firms as good "bolt-on" opportunities. Read the report for more detail on trends, public market performance and deal activity.
A stream of new money flowing into loan and credit funds overwhelmed new issue supply, providing issuers (and their agents) the opportunity to run robust offering processes and gamer attractive economic and structural terms. The recent tightening in monetary policy and strong macroeconomic conditions notwithstanding, all-in-cost of leverage has, thus far, remained near recent lows.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Fall 2016Duff & Phelps
Middle-market issuers were greeted by strong demand this quarter from mainstream credit sources as well as those seeking higher degrees of risk and return. Macroeconomic fundamentals continued to improve, though the focus remained on monetary policy. With an increasingly stark dichotomy of views at the Federal Reserve, volatility persisted in anticipation of clearer guidance on the pace and timing of rate hikes.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Corporate borrowing activity in the second quarter was robust, particularly in the middle-market, which exceeded the record volume seen in the first quarter. Supply and demand for middle-market credit became more balanced, as opportunistic issuers came to market and/or increased issuance size. Near team market conditions remain compelling for middle-market issues as borrowers are capitalizing on strong institutional appetite by pursing favorably crafted deals for acquisition, recapitalization and growth financing.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss recent changes in the administration of unclaimed property programs in the states of Delaware, Illinois and Texas, highlighting the need for companies to review their reporting requirements to ensure compliance and minimize the risk of audit.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss the genesis of the new Certified in Entity and Intangibles Valuation ("CEIV") credential that was introduced this year by three of the Valuation Professional Organizations to enhance the transparency, quality and consistency of valuations for financial reporting purposes. The article also discusses the pathway to obtaining the credential and the Mandatory Performance Framework.
Other Topics Covered Include:
BEPS Action 13 and what companies need to know to satisfy the new requirements
Highlights from the 2017 Global Enforcement Review
Duff & Phelps' new transfer pricing documentation tool - BEPS Central Tracker
Industry market multiples for North America and Europe
The overall outlook for 2017 Canadian M&A activity remains moderately positive, despite the decrease in the number of Canadian companies sold in 2016. Corporate balance sheets are flush with cash, with corporations actively looking for quality investments. Interest rates remain low, and oil prices are showing signs of improvement. Private Equity firms also have large cash holdings and often see Canadian firms as good "bolt-on" opportunities. Read the report for more detail on trends, public market performance and deal activity.
A stream of new money flowing into loan and credit funds overwhelmed new issue supply, providing issuers (and their agents) the opportunity to run robust offering processes and gamer attractive economic and structural terms. The recent tightening in monetary policy and strong macroeconomic conditions notwithstanding, all-in-cost of leverage has, thus far, remained near recent lows.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Fall 2016Duff & Phelps
Middle-market issuers were greeted by strong demand this quarter from mainstream credit sources as well as those seeking higher degrees of risk and return. Macroeconomic fundamentals continued to improve, though the focus remained on monetary policy. With an increasingly stark dichotomy of views at the Federal Reserve, volatility persisted in anticipation of clearer guidance on the pace and timing of rate hikes.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Transportation & Logistics | Q4 2020 | Feature...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Transportation & LogisticsIndustry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, mergers and acquisitions review, and guideline public company metrics.
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Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2020 | Region Focus : BakkenMercer Capital
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Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2020 | Low Rates and Tighter NIMs Spur ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss several hot topics related to intellectual property, including a framework for evaluating whether to develop IP in-house or purchase through an acquisition (Build vs. Buy Decision). In our Technical Notes section we discuss how patent rights can be used to exclude competitors from practicing an invention or alternatively how to receive monetary compensation or injunctive relief in the Federal Courts. Finally, our international in focus article discusses the Internal Revenue Service’s proposed regulations to address the tax treatment by multinational corporations of certain asset and business transfers under Internal Revenue Code Sections 376(a) and (d).
The Malaysian economy is stable despite domestic and external challenges. The authorities are making progress on their reform agenda including governance reforms and measures to improve the transparency and management of public finances. Policies should focus on medium-term fiscal consolidation, while safeguarding growth and financial stability. Structural reforms are needed to enshrine in law main governance measures, and to boost productivity to achieve high income status and inclusive growth.
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Duff & Phelps' Capital Markets Insights - Spring 2018 report states that leveraging costs and structures showed signs of increasing volatility in the first quarter of 2018, as markets reacted to rising economic growth, inflation concerns and trade tensions. Read the report for more detail.
Capital Markets Insights – Late Fall 2018Duff & Phelps
What’s been an increase in growth and acquisition-related financings and recapitalization transactions? Read the fall edition of Duff&Phelps’ Capital Markets Insights.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | December 2019 | 2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Transportation & Logistics | Q4 2020 | Feature...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Transportation & LogisticsIndustry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, mergers and acquisitions review, and guideline public company metrics.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appal...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2020 | Region Focus : BakkenMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2020 | Low Rates and Tighter NIMs Spur ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
In this edition of Valuation Insights we discuss several hot topics related to intellectual property, including a framework for evaluating whether to develop IP in-house or purchase through an acquisition (Build vs. Buy Decision). In our Technical Notes section we discuss how patent rights can be used to exclude competitors from practicing an invention or alternatively how to receive monetary compensation or injunctive relief in the Federal Courts. Finally, our international in focus article discusses the Internal Revenue Service’s proposed regulations to address the tax treatment by multinational corporations of certain asset and business transfers under Internal Revenue Code Sections 376(a) and (d).
The Malaysian economy is stable despite domestic and external challenges. The authorities are making progress on their reform agenda including governance reforms and measures to improve the transparency and management of public finances. Policies should focus on medium-term fiscal consolidation, while safeguarding growth and financial stability. Structural reforms are needed to enshrine in law main governance measures, and to boost productivity to achieve high income status and inclusive growth.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Data as of Mid-Year 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Duff & Phelps' Capital Markets Insights - Spring 2018 report states that leveraging costs and structures showed signs of increasing volatility in the first quarter of 2018, as markets reacted to rising economic growth, inflation concerns and trade tensions. Read the report for more detail.
Capital Markets Insights – Late Fall 2018Duff & Phelps
What’s been an increase in growth and acquisition-related financings and recapitalization transactions? Read the fall edition of Duff&Phelps’ Capital Markets Insights.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | December 2019 | 2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
Market conditions at the fourth quarter’s outset largely reflected expectations of continued (albeit modest) economic growth and accommodative monetary policy. At mid quarter, the presidential election portended a period of fiscal stimulus and tightening monetary policy. Overall, the quarter witnessed a sharp rally in equities, tightening credit spreads, a downturn in Treasury prices and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Buildup in dry powder is driving appetite for new issues and resulting in increasingly issuer friendly spreads and structures. For more detail, read the Duff & Phelps Capital Markets Insights – Summer 2018 report.
Interbank call money rates remained below the RBI’s repo rate of 5.75% during most parts of the month as systemic liquidity remained in surplus amid periodic repo auctions conducted by the central bank. The RBI also conducted frequent reverse repo auctions to drain away excess liquidity and give the opportunity to banks to park their idle funds.
Read the full document to know more.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation Model – September Update:
Global economic data remained robust in August and continue to point to solid, broad-based and synchronized economic expansion. Financial conditions also remain easy and still provide a supportive environment for economic growth.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2019 | 2019 Core Deposit Intangibles Up...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continue to point to robust and synchronized economic growth with the release of stronger-than-expected ISM surveys, German IFO business climate survey and Chinese Q2 real GDP growth data.
Outlook Summary
Global growth trends remain higher as world experiences synchronized recovery
Maturing earnings growth cycle could increase focus on excessive valuations
Global central banks attempting to thread the needle on policy normalization
Mid-term elections heat up as cyclical bull market approaches maturity
Stock market volatility likely to rise in 2018 and test ability of investors to look past the noise. S&P 500 expected to consolidate gains of the past two years, trading in wide range and finishing the year near where it begins
Bond yields likely to move higher, with the 10-year T-Note yield reaching 3.0%
Similar to Capital Markets Insights - Fall 2017 (20)
How can hospitalist programs manage the ongoing shift to value-based care, along with operating costs and the challenges of managing, recruiting and retaining high-quality physicians? Read the report to find out.
Read Duff & Phelps’ detailed synopsis of the latest news and publications issued by France’s AMF affecting the asset management industry during the third quarter of 2018.
Healthcare Services Sector Update – October 2018Duff & Phelps
healthcare m&a advisory, best performing sectors in healthcare, healthcare services industry, m&a advisors in healthcare industry, Healthcare Services Index
In this edition of Regulatory Focus, the experts in Duff & Phelps round up the latest news and publications issued by the Financial Conduct Authority. Read more
Medical Device Contract Manufacturing Update – Fall 2018Duff & Phelps
The global medical devices contract manufacturing market was valued at $70 billion in 2017, and is forecasted to increase to $115 billion in 2022, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5%. Read the Medical Device Contract Manufacturing Update Report for market trends impacting the contract manufacturing organizations (CMO).
The Duff & Phelps cost trend update is now available for both the Construction Cost and Equipment Cost indices. This trend update dates back to 2015 and shows how the last four years has been relatively stable for construction after a decade of volatility, while the equipment cost indices continues to show moderate year-on-year changes. Please be reminded that these indices are just average indicators of change and they are not absolutes. Duff & Phelps advises that after five to seven years, you should establish a new replacement cost basis by using a qualified valuation professional. Please contact Brad Schulz at Duff & Phelps to discuss establishing a new replacement cost basis.
In this edition of Regulatory Focus, the experts in Duff & Phelps round up the latest news and publications issued by the Financial Conduct Authority. Read more
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Duff & Phelps Managing Directors Ann Gittleman and Norman Harrison discussed structures, regulation and criminal risks in hedge fund and private equity fund at the Annual FBI conference in Washington, D.C. Read more in this report.
Food and Beverage M&A Landscape - Summer 2018Duff & Phelps
M&A deal activity in the food and beverage industry remains active, with more than 270 deals closed over the last twelve-month (LTM) period ended July 31, 2018. Mega-sized deals continued to make headlines, with several North American transactions closing at multibillion values since our Spring 2018 report. The largest transaction seen was the merger between Keurig Green Mountain Inc. and Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, at a value over $25 billion. Other large transactions include, Conagra Brands’ $10.9 billion acquisition of Pinnacle Foods Inc., a manufacturer and distributor of branded convenience food products in North America, as well as General Mills’ acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products, Inc., a natural pet food company for $8.0 billion.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
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Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
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how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
Capital Markets Insights - Fall 2017
1. I N D U S T R Y I N S I G H T S :
Capital Markets
F a l l 2 0 1 7 R e v i e w
2. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Highlights
With the backdrop of strengthening
GDP growth and inflation data in the
third quarter, the Fed proceeded to
outline a $1.5 trillion balance sheet
reduction to occur over the next three
years. Fed guidance also remained in
place for another quarter-point rate
hike in 2017.
Corporate credit issuance remained
robust, despite the summer lull, with
transaction count and volume
exceeding that of the third quarter of
2016.
High-yield bond yields rallied this
quarter, possibly a result of
confidence in a benign corporate
issuer default rate outlook, even as
the quantum of debt and leverage
multiple of corporate borrowers rose.
2
Borrowing costs for middle-market credit seekers generally declined over the
quarter, despite a modest increase in base yields. Non-investment grade
bonds rallied approximately 17bps and leverage loan spreads were essentially
unchanged.
The Fed, as widely expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the
third quarter. The Fed did, however, announce a program to gradually reduce
its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing)
to $3 trillion over the next three years. Additionally, Fed guidance through 2018
was reaffirmed with another 25-bps increase planned in 2017 and three 25-bps
increases planned for 2018.
Monetary policymakers remained cautious that underlying low inflation against
the backdrop of higher labor and capacity utilization could trigger a deflationary
environment. Undeterred by this risk, the Fed remains committed to building
sufficient “dry powder” to weather the next economic cycle. The Federal
Reserve Board Chair believes the persistence of undesirably low inflation will
pass as short-term factors abate.
Accelerating GDP growth, rising business and consumer optimism, and
increasing wages and corporate profits could push inflation higher. Even in the
absence of notable inflationary pressure, this backdrop could nevertheless
catalyze more restrictive monetary policy.
Consequently, we believe an attractive window may exist for opportunistic
middle-market issuers. Lower prevailing rates, greater leveragability and
continued strong demand from capital sources have contributed to the
attractive credit market. We note, however, that the elongated economic
expansion cycle has caused credit providers to be more selective about the
sectors they view as potentially overvalued and/or cyclical.
3. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Executive Summary
As widely expected, the Fed left benchmark rates unchanged in the third
quarter. A balance sheet normalization program was announced, to reduce
the current $4.5 trillion balance sheet, the result of the program known as
quantitative easing, to $3 trillion over the next three years. Fed officials
reduced future projected rate hikes by one in 2019. We expect another 25-
bps increase in 2017, three 25-bps increases in 2018 and two in 2019.
Following the announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield increased to its
highest level since 2008, resulting in additional flattening of the yield curve as
the 10-year ended the quarter largely as it began.
At this writing, no major fiscal agenda item has been accomplished. A tax
reform push will begin in earnest in late October following the passage of a
new federal budget. While an initial plan for revised tax policy has been
outlined, the details are yet to be ironed out. Meanwhile, GDP growth appears
to be accelerating (+2.7% estimate for Q3, after taking into account an
estimated 0.5% negative impact from several major hurricanes), business
and consumer optimism are rising, as are wages and corporate profits, as
economic expansion continues.
While Fed policymakers are seemingly desirous of tightening policy, they
have remained somewhat constrained by inflation readings remaining below
the stated 2% target, a condition they view as transitory. Despite having the
lowest unemployment rate in 16 years (4.2%), average core price index
inflation remained stubbornly around 1.5%. The Fed recently indicated that it
may have previously overstated the strength of the labor market and rate of
inflation, but has remained committed to tightening policy as it views those
conditions as strengthening. Even so, the market does not appear thus far to
be factoring in Fed guidance on monetary tightening.
Despite increased corporate debt and leverage levels, borrowing costs for
middle-market debt issuance generally declined during the third quarter,
possibly a result of confidence in a benign default outlook. The U.S. high-yield
default rate is expected to drop from Q4 2016’s 5.6% to 3.2% in Q4 2017, and
to 2.8% by Q2 2018, according to Moody’s. This pattern runs counter to
historical norms when rising debt levels (debt-to-internal funds or liquidity)
and leverage are generally followed by rising default rate expectations. With
increasing indebtedness, the current upturn’s longevity will largely be
contingent on the continuation of corporate profit growth.
Consequently, we believe that an attractive window exists for opportunistic
middle-market issuers. A combination of lower prevailing borrowing rates,
higher available leveragability and continued strong demand from capital
sources is helping to provide beneficial market conditions. However, with the
elongated current economic expansion cycle, we have noted that credit
providers are being somewhat selective about the sectors they view as
overvalued and/or cyclical. This dynamic hasn’t changed the ability to raise
capital around all industries, but requires advisors to be astute in how they
structure new issuances. We don’t know how long current conditions will
remain in place, as signs of accelerating economic growth and monetary
tightening may add pressure to currently low corporate borrowing rates.
3
4. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
LEVERAGE MULTIPLES
SENIOR
EBITDA OF $10MM–$20MM
3.25x–4.25x
EBITDA OF $20MM–$50MM
3.75x–4.75x
TOTAL DEBT
EBITDA OF $10MM–$20MM
4.00x–5.00x
EBITDA OF $20MM–$50MM
4.50x–5.50x
Indicative Middle-Market
Credit Parameters
4
5. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
SECOND LIEN LIBOR + 6.00%–9.00% LIBOR + 5.50%–8.50%
SUBORDINATED
DEBT
10.50%–12.50% 9.50%–11.50%
UNITRANCHE LIBOR + 6.00%–8.50% LIBOR + 5.50%–8.00%
Indicative Middle-Market
Credit Parameters
FIRST LIEN LIBOR + 2.75%–3.50% (bank)
LIBOR + 3.75%–5.75% (nonbank)
LIBOR + 2.50%–3.25% (bank)
LIBOR + 3.75%–5.75% (nonbank)
FIRST LIEN
5
PRICING EBITDA OF $10MM–$20MM EBITDA OF $20MM–$50MM
6. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
High-yield issuance volume increased slightly over the second quarter. Refinancings
continued to drive issuance, accounting for 58% of overall supply, while M&A- and LBO-
related financings were up nearly 20% over the second quarter. A few large deals
accounted for a large amount of new issuance volume; notable deals in September
included the Caesars Growth and Resort Properties $1.7 billion financing and the
Avantor $1.6 billion financing.
Total High-Yield Bond Issuance
Source: LCD Comps
68.6
74.9
105.1
68.9
64.5
91.3 94.1
39.8
36.3 36.1
83.4
62.7
47.1
81.7
61.7
64.8
146 146
178
123
112
129
163
61 53 55
112 107
89
143
118 116
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
THOUSANDS
Total Bond Volume ($B) Number of Tranches
New
Issuance
6
7. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
607.2
481.5
620.6
507.3
672.0
437.0
662.9
603.6 605.8
399.0
695.9
499.3
715.8
636.1
727.2
605.0
1,177
994 1,173
1,098
1,111 848 1,172
951
1,067 804 1,079
943
1,049 1,028
1,121
1,008
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
THOUSANDS
Total Loan Volume ($B) Number of Deals
Corporate loan issuance was robust despite typically muted new deal volume over the
summer months, with transaction count and volume exceeding that of the third quarter
of 2016. A combination of strong demand from credit sources, low rates and declining
default rate expectations likely contributed to strong volume.
Total Loan Issuance
New
Issuance
7
Source: SDC Platinum
Volume data includes deals reported as of 10/16/2017
8. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Middle-market loan issuance trends were largely reflective of those observed for total
loan issuance. Third quarter activity also reflected reduced middle-market M&A related
issuance. Like broader loan issuance, 2017 middle-market loan issuance appears on
track to significantly exceed previous years.
Total Loan Issuance (EBITDA < $50MM)
275.3 266.3
305.0
230.5
256.7
174.1
303.0
243.3
270.5
168.4
323.9
258.3
344.2
375.1
394.4
321.4
913
798
952
897
897
676
942
803
895
680
911
817
912
870
946
824
500
750
1,000
1,250
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
THOUSANDS
Total Loan Volume ($B) Number of Deals
New
Issuance
8
Source: SDC Platinum
Volume data includes deals reported as of 10/16/2017
9. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Fund
Flows
Year-to-date, $88 billion of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) have priced, up 45%
from the same period last year. The number and volume of CLOs issued this quarter,
while down from the prior quarter, remained above the average of the last several
years. We largely attribute the downtick to the summer lull. However, comments from
the U.S. Treasury that risk retention rules should not apply to CLOs may help maintain
CLO volume going forward.
Total CLO Issuance
Source: LCD Comps
24.6
22.6
38.3
32.4
30.7 30.8
28.6
18.9 19.6
8.2
18.0
19.9
26.2
17.4
35.1
30.0
53
45
69
58
63
57
55
36
40
20
42 41
53
32
61
55
0
20
40
60
80
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Total Fund Flows ($B) Number of Deals
9
10. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Net leveraged loan mutual fund flows were roughly flat, with outflows averaging
approximately $0.1 billion in each month of the third quarter. High-yield bonds
experienced significant outflows of $2.3 billion in July, and $3.6 billion in August, and an
average of about $2 billion monthly over the quarter. The third quarter net outflows from
the bond market appear to be a result of investor concerns that long-term rates will
begin to rise based on signs of accelerating economic growth and as a result of more
hawkish monetary policy.Mutual Fund Flows
Sources: Investment Company Institute;
Lipper FMI; LCD Comps
Fund
Flows
10
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
($20)
($15)
($10)
($5)
$0
$5
$10
$15
MILLIONS
High-Yield Bond Fund Flows Leveraged Loan Fund Flows
Total Net Fund Flows ($B)
11. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Leverage First lien and total leverage multiples appear to have increased roughly a half-turn in
2017 versus 2016, with year-to-date average first lien and total leverage of 4.6x and
5.4x, respectively, versus 4.1x and 4.9x in 2016. The primary drivers appear to be a
stronger unitranche bid, higher valuations and lower default rate expectations.
Leverage Multiple (EBITDA < $50MM)
Source: LCD Comps
11
4.5x
4.7x
5.1x 5.2x
4.8x 4.8x
4.4x
5.6x 5.7x
4.9x 5.0x 5.0x
4.8x 4.7x
5.9x
5.5x
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
First Lien Second Lien/SubordinatedDebt/EBITDA Multiple
12. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Middle-market M&A volume increased 25% over the prior quarter on fewer transactions
than in the prior two quarters this year.
Middle-Market M&A Volume (Target EBITDA < $50MM)
181.6
135.9
206.8
199.4
167.0
194.5
165.1
262.0
174.6
138.7
193.6
209.4
230.6
165.4
168.7
208.0
2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6
2.7 2.8 2.9
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.9 2.8
3.1
3.6 3.4
3.1
1.0
1.8
2.6
3.4
4.2
5.0
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS
Total M&A Volume ($B) Number of Deals
(thousands)
Transaction
Volume
12
Source: SDC Platinum
Volume data includes deals reported as of 10/16/2017
13. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
$9.5
$16.2 $16.7
$13.0
$3.9
$6.3
$14.0
$8.8
$2.2
$0.2
$14.2
$11.9
$21.8
$18.7
$6.8
$14.9
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Total Loan Volume ($B)
After taking a breather in the second quarter, as rates moderated due to uncertainty
around economic momentum, loan issuance for debt-financed dividend recapitalizations
has bounced back. We believe the resurgence of leveraged recap issuance is being
driven, to a great degree, by issuer concern that corporate borrowing costs will rise in the
near-term.
Source: LCD Comps
Transaction
Volume
13
Loan Issuance for Dividend Recapitalizations
14. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Yields High-yield bond yields decreased by 17bps this quarter, reflecting a continued strong bid
for contractual returns and modest default rate expectations. Widely traded leveraged
loan yields rose slightly over the quarter, but remained largely in check.
U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bonds and Leveraged Loans
Source: Bloomberg; LCD Comps
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
HUNDREDS
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield S&P/LSDA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 All LoansYields (%)
14
15. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Spreads between the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield index and the 10-year
Treasury yield decreased 20bps during the quarter to a spread of 312bps. Spreads
compressed due to a decline in U.S. high-yield default rate expectations, which dropped
from Q4 2016’s 5.6% to 3.2% in Q4 2017 and are expected to be 2.8% by Q2 2018(1),
and continued investor demand for higher-yielding corporate debt.
Source: Bloomberg; LCD Comps
(1) Source: Moody’s
U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond vs. 10-Year Treasury Spread
Spread (bps)
Yields
15
16. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
The yield curve continued to flatten as the 2-year Treasury yield hit a new nine-year high
of 1.48%, a 10-bps increase over the quarter, while 5-year and 10-year yields increased
5bps and 3bps, respectively. Investor expectations around long-term growth are keeping
longer-term rates down, while the Fed’s actions and guidance toward tighter monetary
policy pushed short-term yields higher.
Source: Bloomberg
2-, 5- and 10-Year Treasury Yields
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2-Year 5-Year 10-YearYield (%)
Yields
16
17. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
The spread between the yield on the 2- and 10-year Treasury decreased by
approximately 7bps over the quarter. The yield curve attainted its flattest level since
before the financial crisis during the third quarter, with the spread between the 2-year
and the 10-year notes reaching a low of 77bps.
Source: Bloomberg
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2-Year vs. 10-Year Treasury Spread
Spread (bps)
Yields
17
18. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Macroeconomic
Update
The latest GDPNow forecast of 2.7% for the third quarter indicates that the
economic growth rate has fallen slightly following a 3.1% increase in the
second quarter. Lower third quarter growth reflects a roughly half-point
impact of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and others. The temporary hurricane
impact is expected to add to the fourth quarter growth as new construction
begins in impacted areas. The employment picture continued to improve,
as the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in September and the labor force
participation rate increased to 63.1%.
U.S. Real GDP Growth
Source: Federal Reserve
First quarter data represents Atlanta Fed GDPNow Projection as of 10/2/17
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
(2.0%)
(1.0%)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
GDP Growth Rate
18
19. Capital Markets Industry Insights | Fall 2017
Macroeconomic
Update
The U.S. dollar fell against the euro and pound in the third quarter while
staying flat against the yen. Euro strengthening of about 3.4% against the
dollar was led by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the ECB as
the eurozone economies continued to strengthen. The pound gained
ground as the Bank of England tentatively forecasted a rate hike in 2018.
U.S. Dollar Foreign
Exchange Rates
Source: Capital IQ
Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
(30.0%)
(25.0%)
(20.0%)
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
EUR/USD GBP/USD JPY/USD
Foreign Currencies vs. USD
19