Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters, the National Association of Realtors
(NAR) and other sources. For additional information on Keeping
Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy
Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia
Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was
extracted in July 2016 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond
area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of
Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.
22

National
Economic Data
33

U.S. Population
Source: National Association of Realtors 4/16

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
(
In thousands 8 million lost … 14 million gained)

State Level Employment Change
66

Where Are People Moving To?
77
Highest InBound States:
1. Oregon
2. South Carolina
3. Vermont
4. Idaho
5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. Nevada
8. District of Columbia
9. Texas
10. Washington
Highest Outbound States
1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Illinois
4. Connecticut
5. Ohio
6. Kansas
7. Massachusetts
8. West Virginia
9. Mississippi
10. Maryland

Employment Rate
88
Source: Bureau Of Labor Statistics 7/16

Gross Domestic Product
99
Source: National Association of Homebuilders 7/16

Virginia State Growth
1010
Source: National Association of Homebuilders 7/16

US Home Ownership Rate
1111

Federal Debt … Cumulative
Federal
Debt in
Millions

Student Loan Debt…
$ Billions

Economic Impact of Every Home Sold
State-by-State
Source: NAR
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
Every home that is sold generates an economic impact which is the
total of the impact on Gross Domestic product. A house sale
generates income for moving companies, painters, carpenters, etc..

National
Number of Sales
1515

“With last month's gain,
sales are now up 4.5%
from May 2015 and are at
their highest annual pace
since February 2007.”
- Lawrence Yun
NAR’s Chief Economist
Source: Keeping Current Matters July 16

Existing Home Sales – Moderate Recovery

January February March April May June July August September October November December
2015 2016
Freddie Mac
Existing Home Sales
in thousands
Source: Keeping Current Matters July 16

6.0%
12.1%
-3.4%
4.3%
17.5%
U.S. Midwest South Northeast
Y-O-Y by region
Existing Home Sales by Region
NAR 5/2016
West

Very Cyclical Vacation Home Sales
(50% Decline and 100% increase)

-1.6%
8.2%
17.1%
16.5%
15.0%
12.0%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -1.6% 8.2% 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% 12.0%NAR 7/2016
Change in Sales by Price Range
Source: Keeping Current
Matters July 16

Inventory of Homes
2222

The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
5-6 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will appreciate
NEUTRAL
MARKET
Homes prices
will only
appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will depreciate
Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is
less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with
depreciating prices. .

5.0
4.9
5.1
4.8 4.8
5.1
3.9
4.0
4.4 4.4
4.7 4.7
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
NAR 7/2016
Last 12 Months
Months Inventory of Homes For Sale

Multifamily Housing Starts: Adequate

Single-family Housing Starts: Grossly Inadequate
Thousand units

January February March April May June July August September October November December
2015 2016
New Home Sales
in thousands
Freddie MacSource: Keeping Current Matters July 16

Forbes
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
7
8
9 9 9
10
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Median Years of Homeowner Tenure
before Moving
Pent-Up Seller Demand

Rising Housing Wealth
$ billion

Prices
3030

FHFA
Year-Over-Year Price Change By State

CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year Price Change

Home Price Expectation Survey 2016 2Q
Projected Mean Price Appreciation

$250,000
$260,000
$268,840
$276,905
$285,212
$293,198
January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021
$43,198
Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey
potential growth in family wealth over the next five years
based solely on increased home equity
Home Price Expectation Survey 2016 2Q
Increase in Home Equity

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
35%
7%
10%
January 2012 - Today
NAR 5/2016
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Percentage of Price Adjustments
Zillow
“Buyers looking for the most expensive homes
will find somewhat softening prices, a relatively
larger selection of homes to choose from and more
limited competition” Zillow

Quicken Loans
-1.15
-1.4
-2.33
-2.65
-2 -1.98
-1.87
-1.8 -1.75
-1.99
-2.17
-1.95
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar April May
% -1.15 -1.4 -2.33 -2.65 -2 -1.98 -1.87 -1.8 -1.75 -1.99 -2.17 -1.95
Appraiser vs Homeowner Estimate of Value
Last 12 Months

Source: CoreLogic
Price & Time Since The Peak

The Interest Rate
3939

A Look Back at Mortgage Rates
Record Date
Average 30 year fixed
rate mortgage
Approximate Payment on
a $200K Mortgage*
All-Time
LOW
11/21/12 3.31% $877
All Time
HIGH
10/9/81 18.63% $3,177
*Monthly mortgage payments are principal and interest only,
based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.
Freddie Mac

Freddie Mac 6/2016
Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rates

Quarter
Fannie
Mae
Freddie
Mac
MBA NAR
Average
of All Four
2016 2Q 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
2016 3Q 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9
2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0
2017 1Q 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1
Mortgage Rate Projections
6/2016Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/16

Greater Richmond
Housing Market
4343
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. Data for most graphs is taken from
the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)

Number of Jobs in Richmond
4444
Source: National Association of Realtors
1000sofFullTimeJobs

Richmond GDP
4545
Source: National Association of Homebuilders

Market Indicator #1:
Sales are Up!!!
4646

12737
15262 15533
16450
15074
12644
9482 9069
8574
9051
10177 10545
11400
12841
6637
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
thru
6/30
NoofClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year
Single Family Sales by Year
4747
2015 Single Family sales were up 12.4% from 2014! And Single Family sales are up 51% since 2010.
2016 should be higher than 2015.
Source: CVRMLS Data 7/8/16

Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
4848
Sales in 2015 were higher than 2014 sales in almost all months. 2016 has been higher than 2015 in most
months.
Source: CVRMLS data 7/8/16
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

First Quarter Sales
4949
3161
2892
2088
1487
1612
1801
1924
2057 2047
2360 2389
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in First Quarter

Second Quarter Sales
5050
4567
3919
2910
2533
3013
2657
3135
3390 3407
3859
4248
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NumberofClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales
Second quarter sales were up 10% over last year!

914
1147
1383
1761
2035
1757
1382
1154 1093
1201
1420
1623 1594
1851
779
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
thru
6/30
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
5151
2015 sales were 16% higher than 2014 and were 69% higher than in 2010.

Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
5252
Source: CVRMLS 7/9/16
There has been large
year-over-year
increase in Single
family sales at all but
the highest price
points.
Greater Richmond Year Over Year Single Family
Sales By Price Range
7/14-6/15 7/15-6/16 Change
0-$249,000 7016 9434 34.46%
$250,000-$499,000 4155 4824 16.10%
$500,000-$749,000 722 847 17.31%
$750,000- $999,999 176 178 1.14%
$1,000,000+ 76 63 -17.11%
Greater Richmond Year Over Year
Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range
7/14-6/15 7/15-6/16 Change
0-249,000 1578 1738 10.14%
$250,000-$499,000 599 708 18.20%
$500,000+ 96 67 -30.21%
Condo sales have had
large increases at the
lower price points and
have declined at the
higher price points.

Who Are Richmond’s Largest Builders?
5353
2015 Top Richmond Home Builders
RankCompany $ Volume Units
1 Ryan Homes $239,096,998 666
2 HHHunt Homes $90,897,000 287
3 Eagle Construction $88,984,058 201
4 Main Street Homes $75,212,457 179
5 StyleCraft Homes $53,434,000 139
6 Boone Homes $38,058,587 52
7 R-CI Builders $23,769,424 68
8 Lifestyle Home Builders $23,362,189 49
9 Craftmaster Homes Inc $21,845,907 66
10 Biringer Builders $20,322,609 30
10 Liberty Homes $17,500,000 83

Inventory is Low!!!
5454

0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Month
Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses
(Months)
2010
2012
2014
2015
2016
Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
5555
The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the
past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and
has continued to drop for five years. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. Inventory in July 2016
was 3 months.
Source: CVRMLS data

Single Family Inventory by Area
5656
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s
market. We have a shortage of inventory in most areas. The red line represents a normal market.
2.2
2.6
3.2 3.3
5.2
4.6
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Hanover Goochland Powhatan Greater
Richmond
MonthsofInventory
Area
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area 7/11/16

5757
Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month
The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop
through 2013. 2013, 2014 and 2015 inventory have been very similar. Inventory has stayed low for the past three years.
Inventory in July 2016 is 2.5 months.
Source: CVRMLS data
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums
(Months)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Single Family Inventory by Price Range
Single Family Inventory by Price
Range
Price Range Inventory
0-$249,000 2.1
$250,000-$499,000 3.0
$500,000-$749,000 5.6
$750,000-$999,999 5.5
$1,000,000+ 11.6
5858
Single Family Inventory by Price
Range
0-$249,000 1.4
$250,000-$499,000 3.5
$500,000-$749,000 6.0
$750,000-$999,999 8.7
$1,000,000+ 18.1

Inventory by Price Range
5959
Condominium/Townhouse
Inventory by Price Range
0-249,000 1.8
$250,000-$499,000 2.9
$500,000+ 13.7
Condominium Inventory By Price
Range
0-249,000 2.5
$250,000-$499,000 2.9
$500,000+ 9.9
Source: CVRMLS data 1/14/16 Source: CVRMLS data 7/12/16

New Construction
6060
Source: National Association of Homebuilders

Prices are rising!!!
6161

6262
The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very
large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012.
Single Family Average Sales Price
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price

$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot
Single Family Price Per Square Foot
6363
Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012.
There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.

$92.37
$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82
$139.64
$132.43
$117.82
$112.24
$104.98
$106.16
$113.02
$115.19
$120.55
$123.59
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016thru6/30
Greater Richmond Single Family Prices
Single Family Price by Year
6464
Greater Richmond 2016 prices are 2.5% higher than 2014 prices and 17.7% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are at 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. 2016
prices are 11.5%% below 2007 prices.
Source: CVRMLS data

7.9%8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%
-6.5%
1.1%
6.5%
1.9%
4.7%
2.5%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
thru
6/30
Greater Richmond Single Family Percent
Change in Price Per Sq Ft Year to Year
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
6565
Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to
increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.
In 2015, prices were up 4.7% over 2014. 2016 is up 2.5% from 2015.

Condo/Townhouse Prices
6666
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
AverageSalesPrice
Month
Condominium/Townhouse Average Sales Price

$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
PricePerSqFtforClosedSales
Month
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales
Prices for Condominiums
6767
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices rising for the past four
years.

$91
$100
$113
$133
$149
$154 $153
$136
$132
$119 $121
$130
$139 $137 $139
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
thru
6/30
PricePerSquareFoot
Year
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Prices
Condominium/Townhouse Prices
6868
Condominium prices in 1.1% higher than 2015. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.
Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line..
Source: CVRMLS data

Prices for $1M+ Sales
6969
$255.11
$241.57 $234.72
$216.69 $212.22
$230.76
$208.88
$224.94 $235.46 $230.04
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(thru
7/18)
PricePerSquareFoot
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family and Condo Price Per
Square Foot for Sales of $1M+

Single Family Buyers By Price Range
2016 First Half Greater Richmond
Single Family Sales By Price Range
$500,000-$749,000 429
$750,000- $999,999 84
$1,000,000-$1,499,000 31
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 4
$2,000,000+ 2
7070

Richmond Real Estate Areas
7171
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54,
60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.

98
41
215
143
79 88
254 257
152
89
147
87
336
421
112
423
179 169
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
NoofActiveListings
Area
Single Family Active Listings By Area (7/11/16)
Active Single Family Listings By Area
7272
The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 62 having the highest number of
homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.

$273,246
$457,069
$328,491
$457,109
$179,356
$175,962
$351,027
$314,313
$172,273
$131,153
$248,853
$79,641
$198,540
$237,640
$217,615
$298,382
$349,478
$284,533
$269,874
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000 10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
AverageSalesPrice
Area
Average Sales Price By Area (7/15-6/16)
Single Family Greater Richmond
Sales Price by Area
7373
The average single family house sale in greater Richmond is $269,874 shown by the red line.

Greater Richmond Single Family Price per
Square Foot 3/14-2/15)
7474
$149.31
$205.33
$141.59
$159.05
$102.43
$107.16
$138.15
$126.08
$97.49
$84.45
$118.61
$60.29
$98.14
$108.12
$116.00
$118.45
$124.64
$129.75
$122.81
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
PriceperSquareFoot
Area
Price per Square Foot By Area (4/15-3/16)

1.6 1.5
2.2
5.2
2.5
2.2
2.9
3.9
3.6
2.5 2.7
4.0
3.3 3.2
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.6
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
MonthsofInventory
Area
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area
Inventory of Single Family Houses
7575
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of
houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher
supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 3
months.

The Odds of Selling in Greater Richmond in 2015
7676
The odds of selling your house are determined by all properties that were listed during 2015 and all properties
that were sold in 2015. The odds of selling a condo in 2015 were 75%
71.99%
77.83%
75.47%
61.22%
64.79%
78.84%
70.75%
65.73%
69.66%
73.98%
73.16%
62.75%
68.01%
66.18%
78.65%
68.94%
67.43%
62.35%
69.71%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
TheOddsofSellingYourHouse
Area
The Odds of Selling Your House in 2015

The Odds of Selling By Price Range
7777
Listed
7/15-6/16
Sold
7/15-6/16
Odds of
Selling
0-$249,000 9224 7366 79.86%
$250,000-$499,000 7239 4842 66.89%
$500,000-$749,000 1519 848 55.83%
$750,000- $999,999 339 178 52.51%
$1,000,000+ 186 63 33.87%

Summary
7878

NAR Economic Forecast
2014 2015 2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
GDP Growth 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2%
Job Growth +3.0
million
+2.6
million
+1.6
million
+2.2
million
CPI Inflation 1.6% 0.3% 1.7% 3.0%
10-year
Treasury
2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8%

NAR Housing Forecast
2014 2015 2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
New Home
Sales
437,000 500,000 540,000 600,000
Existing
Home Sales
4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 million 5.5 million
Median Price
Growth
+ 5.7% + 6.8% +4.5% 3.2%
30-year Rate 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.6%

Summary
• Sales are up Single Family up 6.7%
• Inventory is low Single Family 3 mo.
• Prices are rising Single Family up 4.7%
• The interest rate is low and might
rise
• The upper end market is weak!
8181

Questions?
Lacy.Williams@joynerfineproperties.com
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
804-864-0316
8282

16 07 for web site

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