Richmond Housing Today December 2013

www.RichmondHousingToday.com

The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams

Joyner Fine Properties
December 2013

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties

1

Background


• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy
Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia
Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was
extracted in December 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater
Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties
of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.


2


The National Market


3

Return on Investment


January 2000 – November 2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

64.3

42.1
26
-.1

Dow

S&P

NASDAQ

Real Estate

In spite of recent downturns, real estate continues to be the best long term investment even with the downturn from 2006 to
2012.

4

National Real Estate Recovery

Sales
Started Sustained Recovery
September 2011

Prices
June 2012

Inventory

January 2013 NAR 8/2013
5

Post-WWII Rescissions



This graph shows job losses in each recession since World War II. As you can see in red, this recession has been deeper
and longer than any other recession. The housing market is largely dependent of employment and the number of jobs.

6

Average Annual Appreciation



Nationwide average annual appreciation has been 5.1% for the past 2 years. Appreciation is expected to return to a normal
level of 4.2% for the next few years..

7

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Year-over-Year Change in Prices


After sharp price increases in the spring of 2013, prices are returning to a normal escalation level.


8

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Home Price Expectation Survey


Projected Percentage Increase

The Home Price Expectation Survey is a yearly survey of over 100 leading real estate experts, economists, and financial
analysts. This graph is the average of their predictions on price increases for the next 5 years.

9

Cumulative Appreciation by 2018


The cumulative appreciation for the next 5 years (2014-2018) is expected to be 28%.


10

Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region


Prices are now rising in all areas of the country.

11

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Year-over-Year Price Changes by State

Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13c

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Overall prices rose by 4.8% in Virginia. The Richmond area is a little higher with year over year price increases at 6.5%

12

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale


5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

Nationwide, inventory levels are at a normal level of 5 months.

13

NAR 11/2013

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%


14%

Nationwide, Distressed properties continue to decline with monthly variations.


14

NAR 10/2013

Distressed Properties

Months Supply

CoreLogic11/2013

Virginia is also doing well in the reduced level of Distressed Properties.

15

Typical Sold Price: FSBO vs. Agent


$215K
$175K

By FSBO

By AGENT

Nationwide, sales with a Realtor are higher than For Sale by Owner (FSBO). However, studies have shown that people are
more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.


16

FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales
19

17

15

13

11

9

7

5
1991

The percentage of homes selling as a
FSBO has decreased from 19% to 9%
in the last 20 years
1993

1995


1997

1999

2001

2003

2004

2005

17

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mortgage Rate Projections


Analyst

Projected Rate
3Q 2014

Fannie Mae

5.0%

National Assoc of Realtors

5.4%

Freddie Mac

5.1%

Mortgage Bankers Assoc

5.0%

Mortgage rates have gone from approximately 3.5% to 4.5%. Mortgage rates are projected to go
higher during the next 12 months as shown in this graph.


18

7/2013


3.2

million homeowners have been
freed from negative equity in
the last twelve months.

1.9

million additional are
expected to be freed in
the next twelve months.
Negative equity occurs
when the homeowner
owes more on the house
than it is worth. Negative
equity has been one factor
causing short sales and
foreclosures.


19

Zillow 8/2013


Greater Richmond
Housing Market
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)


20


Market Indicator #1:
The Number of Sales is
Up!!!


21

Number of Single Family House Sales by Year

20000
15262 15533 16450 15074
12644
15000 12737
9482 9069 8574 9051 10177 10545
10000
5000
0

20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
13
20
(T
12
hr
u
12
/9
)

No of Closed Sales

Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales

Year

Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13

The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%. And Sales in
2013 are already higher than in 2012!!
22

Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter

The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher
than 2012 and 26% higher than 2010.

No of Closed First
Quarter Sales

Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

3161

2892
2088
1487

2006

2007

2008

1612

2009

2010

1801

1924

2057

2011

2012

Sales in the first quarter have risen for
three straight years and are higher
than the past 5 years.

2013

Source: CVRMLS Data 10/2/13

Year

No of Closed Sales

Second quarter sales have risen
for the past three years. 2013
second quarter sales were higher
than 2010 sales when there was
a Federal tax credit and were
higher than the past five years.
2013 second quarter sales were
38% higher than in 2009.

Greater Richmond Singld Family Sales for Second
Quarter
5000

4567
3919

4000
2910

3000

2533

3013

3069

3387

2000
1000
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year


2657

23

2011

2012

2013

Third and Fourth Quarter Sales


Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
Number of Closed Sales

5000

4111

4000

3421

3000

2526

2692

2508

3180

2793

1999

2000
1000
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Year

2012 is 11% higher than 2011.

are 10.6% higher than 2011
fourth quarter sales. Note that
2009 had a tax credit during the
fourth quarter.

3500

Number of Sales

Sales in the third quarter of 2012
were higher than sales for the past 5
years!! 2013 Third quarter sales are
60% higher than 2010 third quarter
sales. 2012 fourth quarter sales

Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in
Fourth Quarter by Year
3222

3000
2500

2362

2357
1847

1707

2000
1500

2123

2347

1000
500
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

Year

24

2010

2011

2012

Number of Sales By Month


Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and
Year

Number of Sales

1300
1100

2009

900

2010
2011

700

2012

500

2013

300
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sept Oct

Nov

Dec

Month
Source: CVRMLS Data

As shown above, the number of sales in October are lower than last year in October. The Real Estate market is affected by
government budget crisis, the rising interest rate and other factors. Sales for the year are still significantly higher than last
year.

25

Pending and Closed Sales By Month


Pending and Closed Sales By Month

No of Sales

1400
1200
1000

Pending

800
600

Closed

400
200

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

0

Month

This graph shows the number of pending sales by month in blue and the number of closed sales by month in pink for
2013.

26

Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
1757

1507

20
13

(T
h

ru

12
/9
/1
3)

1093

1420

1201

20
12

1154

20
11

20
08

20
07

1382

20
10

2035

20
09

1761

20
06

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

20
05

Number of Condominium
Sales


Year
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10%
higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!! And 2013 sales as
of 12/9 are already higher than 2012 sales!!

27

Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter

No of First Quarter
Sales

Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
500

The first quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the first quarter of the
previous 4 years. 2013 first
quarter sales were 4% higher
than 2012 sales and 52% higher
than 2008 sales..

428
376

400

310

300

242
190

2010

294

2012

2013

189

2009

275

200
100
0
2006

2007

2008

2011

Source: CVRMLS data

Year

Number of Closed
Condominium Sales

The second quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the previous 5 years
including 2010 when there was a
federal tax credit. 2013 second
quarter sales were 40% higher than
2009 second quarter sales.

Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales
for Second Quarter
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

601

529
344

324

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year

2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.

431

420

28

2011

402

2012

456

2013

Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters

Number of Sales

Third Quarter Greater Richmond Condminium
Sales
800
600

578
499
355

400

345

325

393

446

Source: CVRMLS data

219

200
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Year

Third quarter sales in 2012 were
higher than third quarter sales of the
previous 4 years!!. Third quarter sales
in 2013 were 103% higher than third
quarter sales in 2010.
The fourth quarter of 2012 had 18%
more sales than the fourth quarter of
2011.

Fourth Quarter Sales

Greater Richmond Condominium and
Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter
500

424

400

339

338
288

300

233

287
225

200
100
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

Year

29

2010

2011

2012

Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales

Number of Single Family House Sales in
Greater Richmond

Number of Condominium Sales in Greater
Richmond

Price Range

12/1111/12

12/1211/13

Change

2.56%

$0-$250,000

1102

1110

0.73%

303

435

43.56%

34

68

100.00%

Price Range

12/1111/12

12/1211/13

Change

$0-$250,000

6826

7001

$250,001$500,000

2818

3440

22.07%

$250,001$500,000

$500,001$750,000

457

610

33.48%

$500,001+

$750,001$1,000,000

110

125

13.64%

$1,000,001+

50

52

4.00%

In the Condominium market, Year over Year number
of sales by price point have increased in all price
points with dramatic increases in the higher price
points..

In the single family market, Year over Year number of
sales by price point have increased in all price points


30


Inventory is Down!!!


31

Months Supply’s Impact on Price


Months

Market

Pricing

1-4

Sellers

Appreciation

5-6

Even

The Norm

7+

Buyers

Depreciation

As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most
areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.

32

Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond


Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month
12.0

Inventory of Houses

10.0
8.0

2010
2011

6.0

2012
2013

4.0
2.0
0.0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Source: CVRMLS data

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the
past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and
has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory has had a slight rise in the past few months as the market is returning to
a normal market of 5-6 months of inventory. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago.

33

Single Family Inventory by Area


9.4

10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

7.2


Al

lR
ic

hm

on
d

4.7

Po
wh
at
an

Ch
es
te
r fi

nd

el
d

4.8

G
oo
ch
la

o

Ha
no
ve
r

Ri
c

5.4

3.9

He
nr
ic

on
d

4.7

hm

Inventory (Months)

Inventory of Single Family Houses in Greater
Richmond (October 2013)

Area

The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal
market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer
sales and are still Buyer’s markets..

34

Inventory of Condominiums


12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

2010
2011
2012

Se
p
O
ct
No
v
De
c

Ju
l
Au
g

2013

Ju
n

Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay

Months of Inventory

Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year
and Month in Greater Richmond

Month

Source: CVRMLS data

The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater
Richmond and today there are 470. The inventory in August 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010.

35

Single Family Inventory by Price Range


Single Family Inventory by Price
Range
Price Range

Inventory
(Months)

Condominium Inventory By Price
Range
Price Range

Inventory
(Months)

$0-$250,000

4.0

$0-$250,000

5.1

$250,001-$500,000

4.0

$250,001-$500,000

3.7

$500,001-$750,000

5.7

$500,001+

6.2

$750,001-$1,000,000

9.8

$1,000,001+

15.2

The inventory of houses and condominiums is lowest at the lower price points. There are clearly still challenges
for Sellers at the higher price points. Houses in the higher price points must be competitively priced to sell.


36


Prices are rising!!!


37

Single Family Average Sales Price By Month

Month

The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle.

38

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

$330,000
$310,000
$290,000
$270,000
$250,000
$230,000
$210,000
$190,000
$170,000
$150,000
Jan-06

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price By Month


Greater Richmond Single Family Price
Per Square Foot by Month



Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

$110.00
$100.00
$90.00
$80.00

Jul-06

$150.00
$140.00
$130.00
$120.00

Jan-06

Price Per Square Foot For
Closed Sales

Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
House Sales in Greater Richmond

Month

Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward. There are
always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.

39

Average Price Per Square Foot for
Single Family House Sales


20
12
(T
hr
u
12
/9
)
20
13

20
11

20
10

20
09

20
08

20
07

20
06

20
05

20
04

20
03

$150
$135.82 $139.64$132.43
$140
$123.38
$130
$117.82
$113.09
$112.24
$120
$107.60
$104.98$106.16
$110
$99.65
$92.37
$100
$90
$80

20
02

Price Per Square Foot

Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
For Closed House Sales By Year

Year
Greater Richmond 2013 prices are 6.5% higher than 2012 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and
2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph.

40

Single Family Year over Year Price Change

Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond

20.0%
14.7%

15.0%
10.0%

7.9%

10.1%

8.0%

6.5%
2.8%

5.0%

1.1%

0.0%
-5.0%

2003

-10.0%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
-4.7%

-5.2%

2011
-6.5%

2012

2013
(Thru
12/9)

-11.0%

-15.0%

Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to
increase in 2013.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013,
prices are up 6.5%.

41

Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter


Greater Richmond Single Family
Price Per Square Foot by Quarter

2013-03

2013-02

2013-01

2012-04

2012-03

2012-02

2012-01

2011-04

2011-03

2011-02

2011-01

2010-04

2010-03

2010-02

2010-01

2009-04

2009-03

2009-02

2009-01

2008-04

2008-03

2008-02

2008-01

2007-04

2007-03

2007-02

$145.00
$135.00
$125.00
$115.00
$105.00
$95.00
$85.00
$75.00
2007-01

Price per Square Foot

The turn in the market!!!

Quarter

First Quarter
Sales

Second Quarter
Sales

Third Quarter
Sales

Fourth Quarter
Sales

When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is
higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011 and
2013 is a huge increase from 2012.. The third quarter is in blue and 2013 third quarter prices are significantly higher than 2012 third quarter
42
prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter pricesCVRMLS data higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices.
Source: are significantly

42


2011 vs 2012 Prices By County


11.45%

Area

Prices have risen year over year in all areas with dramatic rises in the city of Richmond.


43

an
ha
t
Po
w

he
st
e

rf

ie
ld

3.75%

C

an
ov
er

4.09%

H

en
ri c
o
H

on
d
R


7.52%

6.49%

6.10%

G
oo
ch
la
nd

14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%

ic
hm

Change in Price Per
Square Foot

Change in Single Family Price Per Square Foot
Between 12/11-11/12 and 12/12-11/13

Monthly Change in Prices


Change in Prices from Same Month in Previous
Year
12.3%

12.0%

10%
5.5%
5%

5.2%
2.8%

2.3%

10.7%

8.6%
8.0%
6.8%
6.6%
5.6%
4.5%

7.6%
3.1%

Nov 12-Nov 13

Sep 12-Sep 13

Jul 12- Jul 13

May 12-May 13

Mar 12-Mar 13

Jan 12-Jan 13

Sep 11-Sep 12

-10%

Jul 11-Jul 12

-6.1%

-0.3% -0.4%
-0.7%
-0.6%
- 3.0%
-3.3%

Mar 11-Mar 12

-5%

May 11-May 12

0%

Nov 11-Nov 12

0.3%

Jan 11-Jan 12

Change in Prices

15%

M onth Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13
This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the
right of the graph, July of 2013 price per square foot was 7.45% higher than in July of 2012. There are a normal monthly
fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.

44

Condominium Price Per Square Foot


$170.00
$160.00

Month

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

$130.00
$120.00
$110.00
$100.00

Jul-06

$150.00
$140.00

Jan-06


Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium
Sales in Greater Richmond


Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past
two years.
45

Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales By Year


Price per Square Foot

Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year
$149.49$154.00$152.70
$160
$150
$135.62$131.55
$133.49
$130.41
$140
$121.13
$119.16
$130
$113.32
$120
$100.03
$110
$100 $90.84
$90
$80
$70

2
00
2

3
00
2

4
00
2

5
00
2

6
00
2

7
00
2

8
00
2

9
00
2

0
01
2

1
01
2

2
01
2

3
01
2

u
hr
(T

3)
/1
/9
12

Year

The price per square foot for condominium sales is almost at 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2013
are 7.6% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23% decrease in
prices between 2007 and 2011.

46

Greater Richmond Year over Year Price
Per Square Foot Change By Price Range


Single Family

Condominium/Townhouse

Price per Square Foot Change in Greater
Richmond
Price Range

12/1111/12

12/1211/13

Change

$0-$250,000

$86.61

$95.01

Condominium Price per Square Foot
Change in Greater Richmond

9.70%

$250,001$500,000

$126.68

12/1211/13

Change

$0-$250,000
$122.25

Price Range

12/1111/12

$106.51

$111.93

5.09%

$150.83

$157.39

4.35%

$190.86

$198.85

4.19%

3.62%

$500,001$750,000

$149.80

$156.69

4.60%

$250,001$500,000

$750,001$1,000,000

$173.01

$181.78

5.07%

$500,001+

$1,000,001+

$228.90

$211.86

-7.44%

In the single family market, prices have increased in all
price points except the highest price points. Remember that
the highest inventory is also at the highest price points
causing price pressure..

In the condominium market, price per square foot is
increasing in the lower and middle price points. There
is still price pressure at the higher price points.
47

Richmond Real Estate Areas


The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.


48

Active Single Family Listings By Area


Number of Active Single
Family Listings

Active Listings By Area (As of 12/12/13)

600
503
500
415
355
400
254
300 201
223 232
197
193
194 192
184
161 146
149
138
200
104
41
100
0
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

Area

The number of active listings by area is shown. There are approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two
years age. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the
lowest.

49

Single Family Average Sales Price By Area

$246,454

$268,781

$357,395

$201,375
60

$250,186

$216,550
54

$100,000

$173,791

$63,172

$234,976

$326,549

$286,313

$113,311

$150,000

$143,564

$200,000

$149,614

$250,000

32

$300,000

$148,485

$350,000

30

$400,000

$410,489

$450,000

$238,962

Average Sales Price

$500,000

$316,699

$446,825

Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (8/1/127/31/13)

$50,000


All Richmond

66

64

62

52

50

44

42

40

36

34

24

22

20

10

$0

Area

Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having
the lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for the past year is $246,454

50

Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area

$50.00

$107.99

$115.27

$116.51

$105.11

$102.43

$97.10

$87.08

$45.85

$112.07

$69.21

$82.88

$116.44

$124.82

$95.10

$100.00

$84.04

$130.96

$186.71

$130.47

$150.00

$117.19

$200.00

on
d

All

Ric
hm

66

64

62

60

54

52

50

44

42

40

36

34

32

30

24

22

20

$0.00
10


Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
Closed Sales By Area (8/1/12-7/31/13)


Area

Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $105.85.

51

Inventory of Single Family Houses


Supply of Houses by Area in Months
10.0

8.3

7.8

8.0
6.0
3.9

4.1

4.1

3.3 3.1


66

64

62

60

54

52

All Richmond

Red Line represents a normal market.

50

44

42

40

36

34

32

30

24

10

0.0

5.0 4.7

4.9

2.0

22

1.3

2.0

5.7 5.9

3.1 3.0

20

4.0

5.0

4.5

6.8

Area

As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of
houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher
supplies of houses at 9.8 and 7.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has a higher inventory at 7.1 months. The average inventory
in Greater Richmond is 4.1 months which is better than an normal market.

52


Summary


53

Existing Home Sales


14,767 US Homes Sell Every Day
and 10,631 Buyers Receive a Mortgage Every Day
In spite of the recent
downturn, home
ownership
continues to be the
best long-term
investment in the
US!!!
Source: Keeping Current Matters

54

NAR 12/2011

The Cost of Waiting


Price

Money
Down

Mortgage

Interest
Rate

Payment
(P&I)

Last Year*

$187,800

$37,560

$150,240

3.5%

$674.64

This Year*

$213,500

$42,700

$170,800

4.5%

$865.42

Next Year**

$224,175

$44,835

$179,340

5%

$962.74

*For the first two examples, we used the NAR’s Existing Home Sales Report to
establish median price and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey to
establish mortgage rate. We also assumed a 20% down payment in all examples.
**To establish next year’s pricing, we depended on the over 100 housing experts
surveyed for the Home Price Expectation Survey who called for an approximate
appreciation rate of 5% over the next twelve months. For the interest rate, we took
the average of the projections from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae.


55

5

Reasons to Hire a
Real Estate Professional


They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in
today’s heavily regulated environment.
They are well educated in and experienced with the
entire sales process.
They act as a ‘buffer’ in negotiations with all parties
throughout the entire transaction.
They help understand today’s real estate values when
setting the price on a listing or on an offer to purchase.
They simply and effectively explain today’s real estate
headlines and decipher what they mean to you.

56


“The housing market
has bottomed. It's not
too late to get
involved. I still think
buying a home is the
best investment any
individual can make.
Affordability is still at
an all-time high. Buy a
home and, if you can,
buy a second home.”
John Paulson

57

Summary
•
•
•
•
•


Sales are up
Inventory is down
Prices are rising.
The interest rate is rising
DO NOT WAIT TO BUY A
HOUSE!!! IT WILL COST YOU A
LOT MORE NEXT YEAR!!


58

Richmond Housing Today December 2013

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