Richmond Housing Today October 2012

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Greater Richmond, VA area market update for October 2012 provided by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties.

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Richmond Housing Today October 2012

  1. 1. The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine PropertiesProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  2. 2. Background • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in August 2012 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined by Joyner Fine Properties as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  3. 3. The National MarketProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  4. 4. The National Economy Source: NAR Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of everyone’s income. It is adjusted for inflation. Nominal GDP is the raw dollar figure not adjusted for inflation Historically GDP grows by 3% per year. GDP is forecast to grow at less than 2% for 2012.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 4 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  5. 5. Payroll Job Changes Source: NAR Payroll jobs are based on figures reported by companies. 89,000 jobs were added in June. This is like treading water given the 3 million additional people in our country every year. We need to add approximately 100,000 new jobs every month to keep up with our increase in population.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 5 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  6. 6. Unemployment Rate Source: NAR The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the labor force. The unemployed people have to be looking for a job to be counted as being in the labor force. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at or near 8% for the rest of 2012 and to decrease slightly next year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 6 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  7. 7. Labor Force Participation Rate Source: NAR Source: NAR The labor Force participation Rate has been falling since the beginning of the Recession. Many went back to school or took early retirement packages and are therefore no longer counted as part of the labor force. It is highly unusual for the labor force participation rate to collapse so steeply since late 2008. There will be recent school graduates who will need to re-enter the workforce as prolonged student loan borrowing is not sustainable. If the labor force participation rate were to be normal (or if it had not fallen), then the corresponding unemployment rate would be approximately 11%.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 7 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  8. 8. Job Losses During Post-WWII Recessions Source: Keeping Current Matters This graph shows job losses in every recession since the Great Depression. This recession has been longer and deeper than any recession since the great depression. But employment is improving and there are signs of recovery. But unemployment is still higher than the low point of all but 2 post depression recessions.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 Calculated Risk 2/3/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  9. 9. Pending Home Sales 105.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales after that but the number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9 NAR 7/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  10. 10. Housing Starts Source: NAR Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line). In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents. Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 10 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  11. 11. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul NARProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 11 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  12. 12. House Prices Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/12 Home prices have started to recover in some markets. The composite 10 is the 10 largest US cities and the composite 20 is the 20 largest cities.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12 S&P Indices 6/27/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  13. 13. Home Price Expectation Survey Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/12 As shown, home prices are expected to start rising next year nationwide although they have already starting rising in some markets as indicated on the previous slide.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13 Home Price Expectation Survey 6/27/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  14. 14. Prices By StateSource: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 FHFA 8/2012Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 14 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  15. 15. Foreclosure Inventory Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/12 In millions as of April 2012 Foreclosures have a negative impact on home prices. As shown above, the number of people delinquent on their loans (shown in red) is declining. Most delinquent loans become foreclosures. Also, the number of foreclosures in process (shown in the dark and light blue) is declining.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15 CoreLogic 6/14/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  16. 16. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 30% 25% 24% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16 NAR 8/2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  17. 17. Highest Foreclosure Inventory Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 17 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  18. 18. Housing Facts Median Home Prices UP 7.3% rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs Existing Distressed -33% Home Sales +8.6% Properties Existing Mortgage Inventory -24.4% - .86% Rates Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 18 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  19. 19. Housing Recovery Strengthening Category Sales Prices Existing Home Sales + 10.4% + 9.4% Pending Sales + 12.4% N/A New Construction + 25% -2.5% Year-Over-Year Changes Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 8/2012Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 19 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  20. 20. Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 20 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  21. 21. Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 21 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  22. 22. Number of Single Family House Sales by Year Greater Richmond Single Family Sales Number of Single Family 18000 15262 15533 16450 15074 House Sales 16000 12737 12644 14000 12000 9482 9069 8574 9051 10000 7636 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00 2 00 3 00 4 00 5 00 6 00 7 00 8 00 9 01 0 01 1 1) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10/ h ru (T 2 201 Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 The number of sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was significantly higher than 2010 and indications are that 2012 sales will be even higher. 2011 sales were 5.5% higher than 2010.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 22 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  23. 23. Number of Single Family House Sales by Month and Year Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond By Month and Year 2000 Number of Closed Sales 1800 2006 1600 2007 1400 1200 2008 1000 2009 800 2010 600 400 2011 200 2012 0 Aug Apr May Jul Jan Jun Oct Mar Nov Dec Feb Sept Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/12 This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales has been dropping every year from 2006 through 2010. In the later part of 2011, sales started to increase Sales have continued to increase in 2012 have been higher than sales for the same months in the past 3 years!! June 2012 sales were equivalent to June 2010 sales when we had a tax credit. And July sales were higher than the past 4 years.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 23 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  24. 24. Sales by Month and Year Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year 1300 1100 Number of Sales 2009 900 2010 700 2011 2012 500 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 24 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  25. 25. Sales By Year and Quarter Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter Sales by Year 4000 Number of First 3161 Quarter Sales 2892 3000 2088 1903 1612 1786 2000 1487 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12 Year 2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011. Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales in the first quarter of 2012 Sales by Year were higher than sales for the 4567 Number of Second past 3 years. And sales in the 5000 3919 Quarter Sales second quarter were higher than 4000 3013 3040 2910 2533 2622 3000 sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2000 2011 second quarters.. Note that 1000 there was a tax credit stimulus 0 that expired during the second 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 quarter of 2010 making sales Year 2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011. then artificially high.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 25 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  26. 26. Third and Fourth Quarter Sales Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales Number of Closed Sales 5000 4111 4000 3421 Source: CVRMLS Data 10/1/12 2692 2598 3000 2526 2496 1999 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 is 4% higher than 2011. Year Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in Fourth Quarter by Year 3500 3222 Number of Sales 3000 2500 2362 2357 2123 2000 1847 1707 1500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YearProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 26 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  27. 27. New Construction Closed Single Family New Homes by Quarter 350 Number of Closed New 300 250 2009 Homes 200 2010 150 2011 100 2012 50 0 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Source: RAR This graph shows the number of new single family closings by year and quarter. Not that 2012 in the green is higher in the first and second quarter than 2011 (in the yellow).Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 27 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  28. 28. Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales Number of Condominium 2500 2035 2000 1761 1757 1382 Sales 1500 1154 1093 1201 986 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Thru 10/1) Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in dark blue) were higher than 2009 and 2010 levels. And 2012 sales (shown in green) are on track to be even higher than 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 28 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  29. 29. Condominium Sales By Month and Year Greater Number of Closed Condominium Sales By month and Year in Greater Richmond 250 Number of Closed 200 2006 150 2007 Sales 2008 100 2009 50 2010 0 2011 Nov Oct Dec Jul Jan Feb Jun Aug Apr May Sept Mar 2012 Month Source: CVRMLS data This graph shows sales by month and year. The number of sales dropped between 2006 and 2009. In the second half of 2011, sales were higher than 2010. 2012 sales thru July have been higher than the past 3 years except for May and June 2010 when the tax credit stimulus was ending.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 29 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  30. 30. Condominium Sales Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 500 No of First Quarter 428 376 400 310 267 Source: CVRMLS data Sales 300 242 190 189 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Greater Richmond Condominium Sales in Second Quarter The first quarter of 2012 had more sales than the first quarter of the 800 Condominium 601 No of Closed 529 previous 3 years. The second quarter 600 420 431 Sales 389 344 of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 400 324 2009 second quarters. There was a 200 tax credit which ended in the second 0 quarter of 2010 so sales were 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 artificially stimulated. Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 30 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  31. 31. Third and Fourth Quarter Condominium Sales Third Quarter Greater Richmond Condminium Sales 800 Number of Sales 578 600 499 355 345 357 400 325 Source: CVRMLS data 219 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Greater Richmond Condominium and Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter Fourth Quarter Sales 500 424 400 339 288 287 300 233 225 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YearProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 31 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  32. 32. Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change $0-$250,000 5585 6792 21.61% $250,001-$500,000 2342 2585 10.38% In the Condominium market, Year over $500,001-$750,000 397 435 9.57% Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points. $750,001-$1,000,000 96 100 4.17% $1,000,001+ 33 36 9.09% In the single family marker, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points Number of Condominium Sales in Greater with more dramatic increases in the lower price Richmond points. As lower priced houses sell, people will start moving up into the higher price points so we expect Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change to see increase in the higher price point in the coming $0-$250,000 847 1042 23.02% months. $250,001-$500,000 251 291 15.94% $500,001+ 13 24 84.62% Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 32 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  33. 33. Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 33 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  34. 34. Months Supply’s Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We arecurrently almost at a normal market amount of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 34 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  35. 35. Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS dataThe supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.Inventory began to drop in 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. We are following a nationwide trend of declininginventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4392. A normalmarket is 5-6 months of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 35 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  36. 36. Single Family Inventory by Price Range Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.7 $250,001-$500,000 5.6 $500,001-$750,000 7.7 $750,001-$1,000,000 11.8 $1,000,001+ 17.0 The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 36 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  37. 37. Single Family Inventory by County Inventory By County/City 12.0 10.1 10.0 8.6 Inventory 8.0 5.3 6.3 5.2 4.3 5.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Richmond Richmond Henrico Goochland Hanover Chesterfield Powhatan City of All Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 County The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market. Areas that are further out have higher inventories.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 37 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  38. 38. Inventory of Condominiums Inventory of Condominiums in Greater Richmond 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 575.. The inventory in August of 2012 is 5 months less than in August of 2010. This is a sign of recovery.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 38 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  39. 39. Market Indicator #3: Prices appear to have bottomed out and are rising in some areas!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 39 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  40. 40. Single Family Average Sales Price By Month Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price By Month $350,000 Average Sales Price $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have nit the bottom and be rising. Prices rise every year during the spring but they appear to be higher than last year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 40 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  41. 41. Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Per Square Foot For $150.00 $140.00 Closed Sales $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Month Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 41 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  42. 42. Average Sales Price By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year Price Per Square Foot $150 $135.82 $139.64 $132.43 $140 $130 $123.38 $117.82 $120 $112.24 $107.60 $104.98 $105.46 $110 $99.65 $100 $92.37 $90 $80 ) 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 /1 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 ru h (T 12 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 The average price per square foot for single family sales in Greater Richmond for 2012 has been at 2004 levels. But price per square foot for 2012 is higher than for 2011. There was a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 42 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  43. 43. Price Per Square Foot By Quarter Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 $145.00 Price per Square Foot $135.00 $125.00 $115.00 $105.00 $95.00 $85.00 $75.00 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter Sales Sales Sales Sales When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 12 is virtually equal to 11. Likewise, CVRMLS data Source: the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 43 and 2012 is equal to 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 43 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  44. 44. Year over Year Price Change for Single Family Homes Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 10.1% 10.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.0% -5.2% -4.7% -10.0% -6.5% -11.0% -15.0% Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Year over year price change shows that as 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 44 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  45. 45. 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County Price Change Between 2011 and 2012 by County 8.00% 5.64% 6.00% 4.00% 2.61% Price Change 1.76% 1.48% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% r o nd d -1.26% n ve ld ric on ta fie la o -4.00% ha en hm an ch er w H H oo st ic Po -6.00% he R G of C -8.00% ity C -10.00% -8.89% City/County Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatan still have some challenges.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 45 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  46. 46. Greater Richmond Average Condominium Sales Price Average Sales Price for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Month $280,000 Average Sales Price $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 MonthProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 46 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  47. 47. Condominium Price Per Square Foot Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond $170.00 Price Per Square Foot $160.00 $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Price per square foot is a good indicator or prices. Notice that the highs and lows in price per square foot are about equal to last year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 47 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  48. 48. Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year Price per Square Foot $160 $149.49 $154.00 $152.70 $150 $133.49 $135.62 $131.55 $140 $130 $119.16$119.36 $113.32 $120 $110 $100.03 $100 $90.84 $90 $80 $70 00 2 00 3 00 4 00 5 00 6 00 7 00 8 00 9 01 0 01 1 1) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10/ u hr (T 2 201 Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/11 Year The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2012 are on average about the same as 2011 indicating that prices have bottomed out. Prices are expected to start rising next year. Ther was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 48 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  49. 49. Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range (Single Family) Single Family Price per Square Foot Change Condominium Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond in Greater Richmond Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change $0-$250,000 $87.61 $86.32 -1.47% $0-$250,000 $111.38 $106.59 -4.30% $250,001-$500,000 $121.35 $121.32 -0.02% $250,001-$500,000 $147.77 $149.72 1.32% $500,001-$750,000 $152.91 $149.43 -2.28% $500,001+ $186.42 $190.58 2.23% $750,001-$1,000,000 $181.85 $178.85 -1.65% $1,000,001+ $212.67 $229.15 7.75% In the single family market, prices were dropping in In the condominium market, price per square foot is Greater Richmond through the early spring of 2012 increasing in the higher price points. but have been rising since then. So the decreases seen in price per square foot on this graph should be followed by increase in a few months. Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 49 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  50. 50. Richmond Real Estate Areas The RAR uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. The analysis of MLS data was generally done for each month during the middle of the following month. MLS analysis may differ depending on what date the information is taken from the MLS system.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 50 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  51. 51. Active Single Family Listings By Area Active Listings By Area (As of 10/1/12) Number of Active Single 600 513 Family Listings 500 450 377 400 280 300 244 249 239 254 227 202 199 189 190 200 148 162 139 160 80 100 0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are approximately 1500 fewer homes on the market than at this time last year. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 51 www.RichmondHousingToday.com
  52. 52. Single Family Average Sales Price By Area Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (7/1/11-6/30-12) $430,047 $382,398 $500,000 $334,527 $312,061 $302,444 Average Sales Price $276,143 $400,000 $251,014 $234,686 $227,469 $217,765 $207,522 $203,025 $168,649 $300,000 $156,991 $141,326 $138,967 $121,960 $104,692 $200,000 $60,937 $100,000 $0 All 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 52 www.RichmondHousingToday.com

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