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June 2007



Keeping You Current
Helping our clients understand this crazy
                 market




               www.realmiamibeach.com
4/2007




         www.realmiamibeach.com
Somewhat confusing data?
April –

New home sales up 16%
Existing home sales down 2.6%
Remember:
New home sales are reported on signing of the
contract. Existing sales are reported at closing. New
home sales are less than 15% of the total housing
market and are not adjusted for cancellations.




          www.realmiamibeach.com
House Prices Slide as Property Glut Grows;
            Buyers Gain Bargaining Power In Busy Spring Selling
            Season
4/25/2007
            “Tighter credit and a growing glut of properties are
            depressing an already weak U.S. housing market, wrecking
            the industry's hopes for an early rebound.
            That leaves buyers in a strong position to negotiate for
            bargains during the spring home-shopping season, the
            busiest time of the year for housing sales.”




                      www.realmiamibeach.com
A Closer Look Regionally

                Here's what happened across the region with home sales:
5/15/2007    Northeast: existing-home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annual
              pace of 1.13 million units in the first quarter from the same
             period a year ago. The biggest gain in the region was in New
            Jersey, where sales rose 7.6 percent from the fourth quarter of
                2006, followed by New York state, up 7.4 percent, and
                      Massachusetts with a 3.9 percent increase.

              The median Northeastern resale single-family home price was
            $268,900 in the first quarter, down 2.5 percent from the first quarter
                                           of 2006.




                         www.realmiamibeach.com
A Closer Look Regionally

                Here's what happened across the region with home sales:
5/15/2007     Midwest: total existing-home sales fell 6.1 percent to a 1.49
              million-unit annual level in the first quarter compared with a
              year earlier. The largest sales increase in the region was in
             Iowa, where sales rose 8.2 percent from the fourth quarter of
            2006, followed by North Dakota, which rose 4.7 percent from a
                          year ago, and Indiana, up 2.9 percent.

            The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was
               $154,600, down 2.8 percent from the first quarter of 2006.




                        www.realmiamibeach.com
A Closer Look Regionally

                Here's what happened across the region with home sales:
5/15/2007   South: total existing-home sales were at an annual rate of 2.51
            million units in the first quarter, down 7.3 percent from the first
                 quarter of 2006. After the District of Columbia, the next
                strongest increase in the South was in Arkansas, up 8.8
            percent from a year ago, followed by Kentucky, which rose 3.9
                           percent, and Texas, up 2.7 percent.

              The median existing single-family home price in the South was
              $177,800 in the first quarter, which is 0.6 percent below a year
                                           earlier.




                         www.realmiamibeach.com
A Closer Look Regionally

                Here's what happened across the region with home sales:
5/15/2007    West: the existing-home sales pace of 1.28 million units fell
            11.9 percent from the first quarter of 2006. After Wyoming, the
             best performance in the region was in Colorado where sales
                         rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier.
              The median existing single-family home price in the West was
             $336,200 in the first quarter, down 1.8 percent from a year ago.




                        www.realmiamibeach.com
Foreclosure continues to be a
            serious concern for many U.S.
4/23/2007   home owners.
            Indeed, according to a recent survey from
            Yahoo Real Estate and Harris Interactive,
            22 percent of home owners are at least
            somewhat concerned about the
            possibility of foreclosure due to their
            inability to meet monthly mortgage
            payments.




                    www.realmiamibeach.com
More than 430,000 U.S. foreclosure filings were
            reported in the first three months of 2007.
            RealtyTrac estimates that more than half of the
4/23/2007
            first-quarter foreclosure activity was from
            subprime loans. However, it’s not just low-end
            homes that are affected, said James J. Saccacio,
            CEO.
             “We’re seeing a rising percentage of
            foreclosures with an estimated market value
            of more than $750,000.”



                                                   osed
                                              recl
                                            Fo



                   www.realmiamibeach.com
States with the most foreclosures
                     State
5/1/2007        1. California
                2. Florida
                3. Texas
                4. Michigan
                5. Ohio
                6. Georgia
                7. Illinois
                8. Colorado
                9. New Jersey
               10. New York

                www.realmiamibeach.com
The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that
            2.2 million American households have lost or will lose
5/15/2007   their homes as monthly payments rise on high-risk
            mortgages in the next few years.




                    www.realmiamibeach.com
Housing Still a Drag on Economy
            Through 2007
5/21/2007
            A survey of 48 economists conducted by
            the National Association for Business
            Economics also concluded that housing
            market troubles will last through the
            end of the year.




                www.realmiamibeach.com
Stocks vs. real estate
              A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and
              economics professor at Baruch College in New York
              City, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared the
4/20/2007
              annual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004
              compared with those of stocks.
              The results?

               Investment                         Return
               Housing                                8.6%
               Commercial Property                    9.5%
               The S&P                               13.4%




                      www.realmiamibeach.com
www.realmiamibeach.com
5/2007




         http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf
         /pages/presentations_use
                 www.realmiamibeach.com
The supply of houses and
            condominiums available for
            sale continues to grow
5/15/2007   quickly in much of the U.S.,
            reflecting weak sales. The
            number of homes listed for
            sale at the end of April was
            up seven percent from
            March, according to data
            compiled by ZipRealty Inc.




                      www.realmiamibeach.com
The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22
            years, home inventories nationwide have increased an
5/15/2007   average of 4.5 percent in April from March, according to
            Credit Suisse Group. Spring is the busiest time of year for
            home shopping, as families with children try to get settled
            ahead of the next school year.




                         www.realmiamibeach.com
Most Overpriced Markets
                        San Diego
5/1/2007
                          Miami
                     Sacramento, Calif.
                      San Francisco
                     Washington, D.C.
                         Honolulu
                        New Jersey
                       Los Angeles
                          Boston
                      San Jose, Calif.




             www.realmiamibeach.com
5/8/2007




           www.realmiamibeach.com
4/25/2007




            www.realmiamibeach.com
Falling...
           Nassau/Suffolk, New York
May 2007




           12-month forecast: - 6%
           Median home price: $483,000
           Five year price change: 76.3%
           Worst one-year decline: 6.6%
           Year of worst decline: '88-'89


           www.realmiamibeach.com
Area                Average SP       % Depreciation

Fort Lauderdale           $325,000            -5.5%
Phoenix                   $271,000            -5.5%
Nassau/Suffolk            $483,000            -6.0%
Miami                     $335,000            -8.8%
Las Vegas                 $325,000            -8.8%


             http://money.cnn.com/
             2007/04/09/real_estate/
             forecast.moneymag/index.htm

                  www.realmiamibeach.com
How do we differentiate ourselves?



“The agent who knows all
  the numbers, and can
  explain them, will be seen
  as the professional.”

I hope July will bring better
news ! Happy 4th , Madeleine


                 www.realmiamibeach.com

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Real Miami Beach Keeping Current 2007 06

  • 1. June 2007 Keeping You Current Helping our clients understand this crazy market www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 2. 4/2007 www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 3. Somewhat confusing data? April – New home sales up 16% Existing home sales down 2.6% Remember: New home sales are reported on signing of the contract. Existing sales are reported at closing. New home sales are less than 15% of the total housing market and are not adjusted for cancellations. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 4. House Prices Slide as Property Glut Grows; Buyers Gain Bargaining Power In Busy Spring Selling Season 4/25/2007 “Tighter credit and a growing glut of properties are depressing an already weak U.S. housing market, wrecking the industry's hopes for an early rebound. That leaves buyers in a strong position to negotiate for bargains during the spring home-shopping season, the busiest time of the year for housing sales.” www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 5. A Closer Look Regionally Here's what happened across the region with home sales: 5/15/2007 Northeast: existing-home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.13 million units in the first quarter from the same period a year ago. The biggest gain in the region was in New Jersey, where sales rose 7.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006, followed by New York state, up 7.4 percent, and Massachusetts with a 3.9 percent increase. The median Northeastern resale single-family home price was $268,900 in the first quarter, down 2.5 percent from the first quarter of 2006. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 6. A Closer Look Regionally Here's what happened across the region with home sales: 5/15/2007 Midwest: total existing-home sales fell 6.1 percent to a 1.49 million-unit annual level in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. The largest sales increase in the region was in Iowa, where sales rose 8.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006, followed by North Dakota, which rose 4.7 percent from a year ago, and Indiana, up 2.9 percent. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was $154,600, down 2.8 percent from the first quarter of 2006. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 7. A Closer Look Regionally Here's what happened across the region with home sales: 5/15/2007 South: total existing-home sales were at an annual rate of 2.51 million units in the first quarter, down 7.3 percent from the first quarter of 2006. After the District of Columbia, the next strongest increase in the South was in Arkansas, up 8.8 percent from a year ago, followed by Kentucky, which rose 3.9 percent, and Texas, up 2.7 percent. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $177,800 in the first quarter, which is 0.6 percent below a year earlier. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 8. A Closer Look Regionally Here's what happened across the region with home sales: 5/15/2007 West: the existing-home sales pace of 1.28 million units fell 11.9 percent from the first quarter of 2006. After Wyoming, the best performance in the region was in Colorado where sales rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $336,200 in the first quarter, down 1.8 percent from a year ago. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 9. Foreclosure continues to be a serious concern for many U.S. 4/23/2007 home owners. Indeed, according to a recent survey from Yahoo Real Estate and Harris Interactive, 22 percent of home owners are at least somewhat concerned about the possibility of foreclosure due to their inability to meet monthly mortgage payments. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 10. More than 430,000 U.S. foreclosure filings were reported in the first three months of 2007. RealtyTrac estimates that more than half of the 4/23/2007 first-quarter foreclosure activity was from subprime loans. However, it’s not just low-end homes that are affected, said James J. Saccacio, CEO. “We’re seeing a rising percentage of foreclosures with an estimated market value of more than $750,000.” osed recl Fo www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 11. States with the most foreclosures State 5/1/2007 1. California 2. Florida 3. Texas 4. Michigan 5. Ohio 6. Georgia 7. Illinois 8. Colorado 9. New Jersey 10. New York www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 12. The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that 2.2 million American households have lost or will lose 5/15/2007 their homes as monthly payments rise on high-risk mortgages in the next few years. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 13. Housing Still a Drag on Economy Through 2007 5/21/2007 A survey of 48 economists conducted by the National Association for Business Economics also concluded that housing market troubles will last through the end of the year. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 14. Stocks vs. real estate A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and economics professor at Baruch College in New York City, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared the 4/20/2007 annual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004 compared with those of stocks. The results? Investment Return Housing 8.6% Commercial Property 9.5% The S&P 13.4% www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 16. 5/2007 http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf /pages/presentations_use www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 17. The supply of houses and condominiums available for sale continues to grow 5/15/2007 quickly in much of the U.S., reflecting weak sales. The number of homes listed for sale at the end of April was up seven percent from March, according to data compiled by ZipRealty Inc. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 18. The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22 years, home inventories nationwide have increased an 5/15/2007 average of 4.5 percent in April from March, according to Credit Suisse Group. Spring is the busiest time of year for home shopping, as families with children try to get settled ahead of the next school year. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 19. Most Overpriced Markets San Diego 5/1/2007 Miami Sacramento, Calif. San Francisco Washington, D.C. Honolulu New Jersey Los Angeles Boston San Jose, Calif. www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 20. 5/8/2007 www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 21. 4/25/2007 www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 22. Falling... Nassau/Suffolk, New York May 2007 12-month forecast: - 6% Median home price: $483,000 Five year price change: 76.3% Worst one-year decline: 6.6% Year of worst decline: '88-'89 www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 23. Area Average SP % Depreciation Fort Lauderdale $325,000 -5.5% Phoenix $271,000 -5.5% Nassau/Suffolk $483,000 -6.0% Miami $335,000 -8.8% Las Vegas $325,000 -8.8% http://money.cnn.com/ 2007/04/09/real_estate/ forecast.moneymag/index.htm www.realmiamibeach.com
  • 24. How do we differentiate ourselves? “The agent who knows all the numbers, and can explain them, will be seen as the professional.” I hope July will bring better news ! Happy 4th , Madeleine www.realmiamibeach.com