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The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
November 2015
11
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Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy
Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia
Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was
extracted in November 2015 for most of the graphs. The Greater
Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties
of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.
22
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National
Economic Data
33
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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
44
Between 2008 and 2010, 8 million jobs were lost. Since 2010, 12 million jobs have been gained. But
since our population is growing, we need to gain 1 million jobs each year. So since 2008, we need 7
million additional jobs to have the same employment rate so we are still 3 million jobs down.
JobsinThousands
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
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Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
55
Gross domestic product should grow by 3% per year. We have had 10 straight years of lackluster growth
or contraction.
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
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Sluggish Growth + Gap after Recession
3% Growth Line
2.2% Growth Line
($1.7 trillion gap … $5,000 per
person)
Since the recession, GDP has grown sluggishly at 2.2% per year rather than the historic average of 3%.
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
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77
Employment Rate
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
The Employment Rate is the number of people working. It is a better indicator of the economy than the Unemployment Rate
which has to do with the number of people actually looking for a job. The Unemployment Rate does not include unemployed
people who have quit looking for jobs. The Employment Rate is significantly down since before the 2008 Recession.
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88
Employment by State
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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Homeownership Rate
(seasonally adjusted … 50-year low)
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
Homeownership is at the lower rate in 50 years.
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Census
Homeownership Rate 1995-Today
Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/15
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Young People: Under 35 years old
Historic Low Homeownership Rate
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
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Rental Rates
1212
PercentageRateofRentalIncreases
Source: National Association of Realtors
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Economic Impact of Every Home Sold
State-by-State
Source: NAR
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
Every home that is sold generates an economic impact which is the
total of the impact on Gross Domestic product. A house sale
generates income for moving companies, painters, carpenters, etc..
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1414
US Oil Prices
The recent drop in oil prices is a huge boom for the economy as it makes the cost of goods and services
cheaper and gives households more discretionary income.
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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National
Number of Sales
1515
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Number of Home Sales
16
Although the number of sales has been increasing for 6 years, the number of nationwide sales is still
below the year 2000. The red line shows the current level of sales vs other years.
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
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Y-O-Y by region
NAR 10/2015
Existing Home Sales By Region
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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Existing Home Sales
in thousands
NAR 10/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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NAR 10/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
Change in Sales By Price Range
Sales are down in the lower price range because there are fewer foreclosures and because there is less
inventory at this price point.
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35%
7%
8%
January 2012 - Today
NAR 10/2015
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
Distressed properties include short sales and foreclosures and
they have been dropping.
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Foreclosures by State
as a percentage of all homes with a mortgage
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
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Housing Starts
Thousand units
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
There has been in increase in multi-family housing starts primarily due to building of apartments.
However, single family new homes are still significantly down and are not recovering very quickly.
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2323
First Time Homebuyers
The percentage of Sales that are First Time Homebuyers has remained low.
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Inventory of Homes
2424
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The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
6 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will appreciate
NEUTRAL
MARKET
Homes prices
will only
appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will depreciate
Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/14
Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is
less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with
depreciating prices. .
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4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
January
2011
January
2012
January
2013
January
2014
January
2015
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
2011 - Today
Inventory
Source: Keeping Current Matters
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Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
last 2 years
NAR 10/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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Average Days on the Market
Source: NAR
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Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist
Months supply (Inventory) is
already low at 4.4 months.
More inventories are needed,
not less. Or else, home prices
could re-accelerate.”
Inventory and Home Prices
Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15
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Prices
3030
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Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20CityComposite
Case Shiller Year Over Year Price Changes
S&P Case Shiller 10/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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NAR 10/2015
Year-Over-Year by region
Home Prices by Region
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
This graph is a summary of price predictions by a panel of 100 US housing experts.
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Source: CoreLogic
Price & Time Since The Peak
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The Interest Rate
3535
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4.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.2%
3.7%
4.9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 April 2015 2016
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
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A Look Back at Mortgage Rates
Record Date
Average 30 year fixed
rate mortgage
Approximate Payment on
a $200K Mortgage*
All-Time
LOW
11/21/12 3.31% $877
All Time
HIGH
10/9/81 18.63% $3,177
*Monthly mortgage payments are principal and interest only,
based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.
Freddie Mac
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
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Quarter
Fannie
Mae
Freddie
Mac
MBA NAR
Average
of all Four
2016 1Q 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.25
2016 2Q 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.45
2016 3Q 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.68
2016 4Q 4.2 5.1 5.1 5 4.85
Mortgage Rate Projections
10/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079
5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050
5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022
5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994
5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966
4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939
4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912
$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000
-2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerRATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
The projected increase in the interest rate will cause
the cost of a house to grow. A buyer who can afford
an $200,000 house today will only be able to afford a
$180,000 house if the interest rate rises one percent.Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
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After 7 Years… $$
Amount Borrowed $135,000
Principal Paid $17,515
Amount Outstanding ($135,000-$17,515) $117,485
Appraised Value $185,003
Amount Outstanding -$117, 485
Equity in Home $67,518
Scenario according to Freddie Mac: You bought your home for $150,000 with a
down payment of 10%, resulting in a loan amount of $135,000. You secured a 30-year
fixed-rate mortgage at 4.5% with a monthly mortgage payment of $684.03 (not
including taxes and insurance). After 7 years of making your mortgage payments,
assuming 3% per year home appreciation (based on the national average). Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac Talks About Home Equity
Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/14
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Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit Availability
Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
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www.RichmondHousingToday.comQ: When do most listings
come on the market?
A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year
Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15 and NAR
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Greater Richmond
Housing Market
4343
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
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Number of Jobs in Richmond
4444
Source: National Association of Realtors
1000sofFullTimeJobs
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Market Indicator #1:
Sales are Up!!!
4545
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Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
4646
The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2013, sales increased 23%. And Sales in
2014 were 8% higher than 2013!! Sales in 2015 are already higher than 2014 sales
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
12737
15262 15533
16450
15074
12644
9482 9069 8574 9051
10177 10545
11400 11576
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(Thru
11/23)
NoofClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year
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Greater Richmond Single Family Sales
2015 sales have been higher than 2014 sales every month. 2015 sales are considerable higher than the
first half of 2010 when we had a homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
MonthlySales
Month
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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4848
The first quarter of 2015 was up
significantly from the first
quarter of 2014.
Greater Richmond First and Second
Quarter Single Family Sales
2014 second quarter sales were higher than
2010 second quarter sales when there was a
Federal Homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
4567
3919
2910
2533
3013
2657
3135
3390 3407
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Single Family Second
Quarter Sales
3161
2892
2088
1487
1612
1801
1924
2057 2047
2360
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in
First Quarter
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Greater Richmond Single Family Third
and Fourth Quarter Sales
4949
Sales in the third quarter of 2015
were higher than any year except
2006.
Sales in the fourth quarter of
2014 were higher than the past
seven years and 8% higher than
2012 fourth quarter sales.
Source: CVRMLS data
3222
2362
1707
2357
1847
2134
2347
2547 2672
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth
Quarter Sales
4111
3421
2526
2692
1999
2508
2793
3304 3274
3760
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Third
Quarter Sales
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Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
5050
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, sales have increased
for three years and 2014 sales were just under 2013 sales.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/8/15
914
1147
1383
1761
2035
1757
1382
1154 1093
1201
1420
1623 1587 1532
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(thru
10/31)
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year
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Condominium Sales:
First and Second Quarters
5151
Condominium sales in the first
quarter of 2015 were higher
than the past 7 years.
Condominium sales in the second
quarter of 2014 were higher than the
past 6 years including 2010 when there
was a Federal homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
601
529
420
324
431
344
402
464 478
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium
Sales for Second Quarter
428
376
310
190 189
242
275
298
280
316
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales
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5252
Source: CVRMLS data
Third quarter sales in 2015 were higher
than any year other than 2006.
Sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were
23 less than the fourth quarter of 2013
and 65% more sales than the fourth
quarter of 2010. Note that there was a
Homebuyers tax credit in the later part of
2009
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
424
339
233
288
225
287
338
395 372
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NoofClosedSales
Year
Fourth Quarter Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales
578
499
355 345
219
325
393
466 457
530
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greater Richmond Third Quarter
Condominium/Townhouse Sales
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Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
5353
Source: CVRMLS 11/8/15
There has been large
year-over-year
increase in Single
family sales at all price
points.
Greater Richmond Year Over Year Single Family
Sales By Price Range
11/13-10/14 11/14-10/15 Change
0-$249,000 6812 7279 6.86%
$250,000-$499,000 3751 4470 19.17%
$500,000-$749,000 601 768 27.79%
$750,000-$999,999 155 180 16.13%
$1,000,000+ 56 68 21.43%
Greater Richmond Year Over Year
Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range
11/13-
10/14
11/14-
10/15 Change
0-249,000 1059 1257 18.70%
$250,000-$499,000 461 472 2.39%
$500,000+ 72 73 1.39%
Condo sales have had
large increases at the
lower price points and
are relatively flat at
medium and higher
price points.
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New Home Price 3%
New Home Sales
5454
Source: HBAR No of Closings 2%
No of Permits 13%
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The Odds of Selling in Greater Richmond in 2014
5555
66.33%
76.86%
72.81%
52.23%
56.78%
60.81%
67.13%
61.85%
57.20%
68.03%
60.04%
46.64%
60.66%
61.14%
65.38%
64.23%
63.75%
51.85%
62.76%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
TheOddsofSellingYourHouse
Area
The Odds of Selling Your Single Family House in 2014
Source: CVRMLS 3/2/15
The odds of selling your house are determined by all properties that were listed during 2014 and
all properties that were sold in 2014. The odds of selling a condo in 2014 was 55.43%
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Market Indicator #2:
Inventory is Low!!!
5656
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Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
5757
The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the
past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and
has continued to drop for five years. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago.
Source: CVRMLS data
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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2.9 3.1
3.5
3.9
5.6
5.2
3.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Hanover Goochland Powhatan All Richmond
MonthsofInventory
County
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area
Single Family Inventory by Area
5858
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s
market. We have a shortage of inventory in most areas. The red line represents a normal market.
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5959
Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month
The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop
through 2013. 2013, 2014 and 2015 inventory have been very similar. Inventory has stayed low for the past three years.
Source: CVRMLS data
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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Single Family Inventory by Price Range
Condominium Inventory By Price
Range
Price Range Inventory
0-249,000 2.5
$250,000-
$499,000
2.9
$500,000+ 9.9
Single Family Inventory by Price
Range
Price Range Inventory
0-$249,000 2.6
$250,000-$499,000 3.7
$500,000-$749,000 6.9
$750,000-$999,999 8.5
$1,000,000+ 12.9
6060
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
Inventory is low at all price points but increases at the higher price points.
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Market Indicator #3:
Prices are rising!!!
6161
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6262
The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very
large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012.
Single Family Average Sales Price
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price
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Single Family Price Per Square Foot
6363
Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012.
There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot
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$92.37
$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82
$139.64
$132.43
$117.82
$112.24
$104.98
$106.16
$113.02
$115.19
$120.45
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(Thru
11/23)
Greater Richmond Single Family Price by Year
Single Family Price by Year
6464
Greater Richmond 2015 prices are 4.6% higher than 2014 prices and 14.7% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on
this graph. 2015 prices are 16%% below 2007 prices.
Source: CVRMLS data
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
6565
Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to
increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.
In 2015, prices are up 4.6% over 2014.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
7.9% 8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%
-6.5%
1.1%
6.5%
1.9%
4.6%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(Thru
11/23)
Greater Richmond Single Family Percent Change
in Price Per Sq. Ft Year to Year
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Prices for Condominiums
6666
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices rising for the past four
years.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
PricePerSq.FtforClosedSales
Month
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
$91
$100
$113
$133
$149
$154 $153
$136
$132
$119 $121
$130
$139
$143
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(thru
10/31)
PricePerSquareFoot
Year
Condominium/Townhouse Prices
Condominium/Townhouse Prices
6767
Condominium prices in 2015 are 2.9% higher than 2014 and 19.68% higher than 2011 prices. There was a 23%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line..
Source: CVRMLS data 11/20/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Richmond Real Estate Areas
6868
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54,
60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
158
52
234
146
113 111
284 291
172
119
171
113
343
444
122
457
174 177
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
NoofActiveListings
Area
Single Family Active Listings By Area (11/23/15)
Active Single Family Listings By Area
6969
The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 62 having the highest number of
homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
$270,871
$439,428
$346,088
$425,413
$175,116
$158,640
$336,298
$304,978
$155,011
$117,245
$244,570
$67,844
$186,330
$227,052
$208,293
$274,776
$349,354
$278,067
$259,620
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
AverageSalesPrice
Area
Average Sales Price By Area (11/14-10/15)
Single Family Greater Richmond
Sales Price by Area
7070
Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the
lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond is $259,620 shown by the red line.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Greater Richmond Single Family Price per
Square Foot 3/14-2/15)
7171
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
$143.77
$194.35
$141.09
$151.23
$98.32
$94.60
$132.04
$123.17
$89.55
$76.68
$115.58
$51.16
$91.25
$102.74
$108.71
$112.11
$122.71
$125.65
$117.65
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
PriceperSquareFoot
Area
Price per Square Foot By Area (11/14-10/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
2.7
1.9
2.4
5.6
3.6
2.9
3.3
4.8
4.2
3.3
2.9
5.4
3.5 3.7
2.3
3.4 3.6
5.2
3.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
MonthsofInventory
Area
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area
Inventory of Single Family Houses
7272
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of
houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher
supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 3. 4
months.
Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Summary
7373
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
NAR Economic Forecast
7474
Source: National Association of Realtors11/14
2013 2014 2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
GDP Growth 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 3.0%
Job Growth +2.3 M +3.0 M +2.4 M +2.7 M
CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 3.2%
Consumer
Confidence
73 87 90 101
10-year
Treasury
2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3%
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
NAR Housing Forecast
7575
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
2000 vs 2014
7676
Source: National Association of Realtors 9/14
+12%
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Summary
• Sales are up
• Inventory is low
• Prices are rising
• The interest rate is rising
7777
Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Questions?
Lacy.Williams@joynerfineproperties.com
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
804-864-0316
7878

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  • 1. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties November 2015 11
  • 2. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Background • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in November 2015 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan. 22
  • 3. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com National Economic Data 33
  • 4. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Jobs, Jobs, Jobs 44 Between 2008 and 2010, 8 million jobs were lost. Since 2010, 12 million jobs have been gained. But since our population is growing, we need to gain 1 million jobs each year. So since 2008, we need 7 million additional jobs to have the same employment rate so we are still 3 million jobs down. JobsinThousands Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 5. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 55 Gross domestic product should grow by 3% per year. We have had 10 straight years of lackluster growth or contraction. Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 6. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Sluggish Growth + Gap after Recession 3% Growth Line 2.2% Growth Line ($1.7 trillion gap … $5,000 per person) Since the recession, GDP has grown sluggishly at 2.2% per year rather than the historic average of 3%. Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 7. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 77 Employment Rate Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14 The Employment Rate is the number of people working. It is a better indicator of the economy than the Unemployment Rate which has to do with the number of people actually looking for a job. The Unemployment Rate does not include unemployed people who have quit looking for jobs. The Employment Rate is significantly down since before the 2008 Recession.
  • 8. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 88 Employment by State Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
  • 9. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Homeownership Rate (seasonally adjusted … 50-year low) Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14 Homeownership is at the lower rate in 50 years.
  • 10. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Census Homeownership Rate 1995-Today Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/15
  • 11. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Young People: Under 35 years old Historic Low Homeownership Rate Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 12. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Rental Rates 1212 PercentageRateofRentalIncreases Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 13. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Economic Impact of Every Home Sold State-by-State Source: NAR Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15 Every home that is sold generates an economic impact which is the total of the impact on Gross Domestic product. A house sale generates income for moving companies, painters, carpenters, etc..
  • 14. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 1414 US Oil Prices The recent drop in oil prices is a huge boom for the economy as it makes the cost of goods and services cheaper and gives households more discretionary income. Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
  • 15. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com National Number of Sales 1515
  • 16. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Home Sales 16 Although the number of sales has been increasing for 6 years, the number of nationwide sales is still below the year 2000. The red line shows the current level of sales vs other years. Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 17. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Y-O-Y by region NAR 10/2015 Existing Home Sales By Region Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 18. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Existing Home Sales in thousands NAR 10/2015 Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 19. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR 10/2015 Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15 Change in Sales By Price Range Sales are down in the lower price range because there are fewer foreclosures and because there is less inventory at this price point.
  • 20. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 35% 7% 8% January 2012 - Today NAR 10/2015 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15 Distressed properties include short sales and foreclosures and they have been dropping.
  • 21. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Foreclosures by State as a percentage of all homes with a mortgage Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
  • 22. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Housing Starts Thousand units Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14 There has been in increase in multi-family housing starts primarily due to building of apartments. However, single family new homes are still significantly down and are not recovering very quickly.
  • 23. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2323 First Time Homebuyers The percentage of Sales that are First Time Homebuyers has remained low.
  • 24. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Homes 2424
  • 25. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Homes prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Homes prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Homes prices will depreciate Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/14 Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with depreciating prices. .
  • 26. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 5/2015 2011 - Today Inventory Source: Keeping Current Matters
  • 27. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE last 2 years NAR 10/2015 Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 28. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Days on the Market Source: NAR
  • 29. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist Months supply (Inventory) is already low at 4.4 months. More inventories are needed, not less. Or else, home prices could re-accelerate.” Inventory and Home Prices Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15
  • 30. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Prices 3030
  • 31. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20CityComposite Case Shiller Year Over Year Price Changes S&P Case Shiller 10/2015 Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 32. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR 10/2015 Year-Over-Year by region Home Prices by Region Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 33. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15 This graph is a summary of price predictions by a panel of 100 US housing experts.
  • 34. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CoreLogic Price & Time Since The Peak
  • 35. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Interest Rate 3535
  • 36. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.7% 4.9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 April 2015 2016 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
  • 37. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com A Look Back at Mortgage Rates Record Date Average 30 year fixed rate mortgage Approximate Payment on a $200K Mortgage* All-Time LOW 11/21/12 3.31% $877 All Time HIGH 10/9/81 18.63% $3,177 *Monthly mortgage payments are principal and interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage. Freddie Mac Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
  • 38. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average of all Four 2016 1Q 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.25 2016 2Q 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.45 2016 3Q 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.68 2016 4Q 4.2 5.1 5.1 5 4.85 Mortgage Rate Projections 10/2015 Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 39. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079 5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050 5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022 5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994 5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966 4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939 4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912 $ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10% Buyer’s Purchasing PowerRATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount. The projected increase in the interest rate will cause the cost of a house to grow. A buyer who can afford an $200,000 house today will only be able to afford a $180,000 house if the interest rate rises one percent.Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
  • 40. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com After 7 Years… $$ Amount Borrowed $135,000 Principal Paid $17,515 Amount Outstanding ($135,000-$17,515) $117,485 Appraised Value $185,003 Amount Outstanding -$117, 485 Equity in Home $67,518 Scenario according to Freddie Mac: You bought your home for $150,000 with a down payment of 10%, resulting in a loan amount of $135,000. You secured a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.5% with a monthly mortgage payment of $684.03 (not including taxes and insurance). After 7 years of making your mortgage payments, assuming 3% per year home appreciation (based on the national average). Freddie Mac Freddie Mac Talks About Home Equity Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/14
  • 41. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Credit Availability Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15
  • 42. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.comQ: When do most listings come on the market? A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15 and NAR
  • 43. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Housing Market 4343 Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
  • 44. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Jobs in Richmond 4444 Source: National Association of Realtors 1000sofFullTimeJobs
  • 45. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #1: Sales are Up!!! 4545
  • 46. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Single Family House Sales by Year 4646 The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2013, sales increased 23%. And Sales in 2014 were 8% higher than 2013!! Sales in 2015 are already higher than 2014 sales Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 12737 15262 15533 16450 15074 12644 9482 9069 8574 9051 10177 10545 11400 11576 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Thru 11/23) NoofClosedSales Year Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year
  • 47. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales 2015 sales have been higher than 2014 sales every month. 2015 sales are considerable higher than the first half of 2010 when we had a homebuyers tax credit. Source: CVRMLS data 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec MonthlySales Month Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 48. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 4848 The first quarter of 2015 was up significantly from the first quarter of 2014. Greater Richmond First and Second Quarter Single Family Sales 2014 second quarter sales were higher than 2010 second quarter sales when there was a Federal Homebuyers tax credit. Source: CVRMLS data 4567 3919 2910 2533 3013 2657 3135 3390 3407 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales 3161 2892 2088 1487 1612 1801 1924 2057 2047 2360 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in First Quarter
  • 49. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Third and Fourth Quarter Sales 4949 Sales in the third quarter of 2015 were higher than any year except 2006. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were higher than the past seven years and 8% higher than 2012 fourth quarter sales. Source: CVRMLS data 3222 2362 1707 2357 1847 2134 2347 2547 2672 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth Quarter Sales 4111 3421 2526 2692 1999 2508 2793 3304 3274 3760 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ClosedSales Year Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
  • 50. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond 5050 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, sales have increased for three years and 2014 sales were just under 2013 sales. Source: CVRMLS data 11/8/15 914 1147 1383 1761 2035 1757 1382 1154 1093 1201 1420 1623 1587 1532 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (thru 10/31) Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year
  • 51. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Condominium Sales: First and Second Quarters 5151 Condominium sales in the first quarter of 2015 were higher than the past 7 years. Condominium sales in the second quarter of 2014 were higher than the past 6 years including 2010 when there was a Federal homebuyers tax credit. Source: CVRMLS data 601 529 420 324 431 344 402 464 478 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales for Second Quarter 428 376 310 190 189 242 275 298 280 316 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales
  • 52. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5252 Source: CVRMLS data Third quarter sales in 2015 were higher than any year other than 2006. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 23 less than the fourth quarter of 2013 and 65% more sales than the fourth quarter of 2010. Note that there was a Homebuyers tax credit in the later part of 2009 Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters 424 339 233 288 225 287 338 395 372 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NoofClosedSales Year Fourth Quarter Greater Richmond Condominium Sales 578 499 355 345 219 325 393 466 457 530 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condominium/Townhouse Sales
  • 53. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales 5353 Source: CVRMLS 11/8/15 There has been large year-over-year increase in Single family sales at all price points. Greater Richmond Year Over Year Single Family Sales By Price Range 11/13-10/14 11/14-10/15 Change 0-$249,000 6812 7279 6.86% $250,000-$499,000 3751 4470 19.17% $500,000-$749,000 601 768 27.79% $750,000-$999,999 155 180 16.13% $1,000,000+ 56 68 21.43% Greater Richmond Year Over Year Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range 11/13- 10/14 11/14- 10/15 Change 0-249,000 1059 1257 18.70% $250,000-$499,000 461 472 2.39% $500,000+ 72 73 1.39% Condo sales have had large increases at the lower price points and are relatively flat at medium and higher price points.
  • 54. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com New Home Price 3% New Home Sales 5454 Source: HBAR No of Closings 2% No of Permits 13%
  • 55. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Odds of Selling in Greater Richmond in 2014 5555 66.33% 76.86% 72.81% 52.23% 56.78% 60.81% 67.13% 61.85% 57.20% 68.03% 60.04% 46.64% 60.66% 61.14% 65.38% 64.23% 63.75% 51.85% 62.76% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% TheOddsofSellingYourHouse Area The Odds of Selling Your Single Family House in 2014 Source: CVRMLS 3/2/15 The odds of selling your house are determined by all properties that were listed during 2014 and all properties that were sold in 2014. The odds of selling a condo in 2014 was 55.43%
  • 56. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Low!!! 5656
  • 57. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond 5757 The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop for five years. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. Source: CVRMLS data 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 58. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.9 5.6 5.2 3.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Hanover Goochland Powhatan All Richmond MonthsofInventory County Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area Single Family Inventory by Area 5858 Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s market. We have a shortage of inventory in most areas. The red line represents a normal market.
  • 59. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5959 Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop through 2013. 2013, 2014 and 2015 inventory have been very similar. Inventory has stayed low for the past three years. Source: CVRMLS data 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 60. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Inventory by Price Range Condominium Inventory By Price Range Price Range Inventory 0-249,000 2.5 $250,000- $499,000 2.9 $500,000+ 9.9 Single Family Inventory by Price Range Price Range Inventory 0-$249,000 2.6 $250,000-$499,000 3.7 $500,000-$749,000 6.9 $750,000-$999,999 8.5 $1,000,000+ 12.9 6060 Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 Inventory is low at all price points but increases at the higher price points.
  • 61. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #3: Prices are rising!!! 6161
  • 62. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 6262 The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012. Single Family Average Sales Price Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 $230,000 $250,000 $270,000 $290,000 $310,000 $330,000 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price
  • 63. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Price Per Square Foot 6363 Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012. There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot
  • 64. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com $92.37 $99.65 $107.60 $123.38 $135.82 $139.64 $132.43 $117.82 $112.24 $104.98 $106.16 $113.02 $115.19 $120.45 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Thru 11/23) Greater Richmond Single Family Price by Year Single Family Price by Year 6464 Greater Richmond 2015 prices are 4.6% higher than 2014 prices and 14.7% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. 2015 prices are 16%% below 2007 prices. Source: CVRMLS data
  • 65. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Year over Year Price Change 6565 Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2015, prices are up 4.6% over 2014. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 7.9% 8.0% 14.7% 10.1% 2.8% -5.2% -11.0% -4.7% -6.5% 1.1% 6.5% 1.9% 4.6% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Thru 11/23) Greater Richmond Single Family Percent Change in Price Per Sq. Ft Year to Year
  • 66. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Prices for Condominiums 6666 Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices rising for the past four years. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $160.00 $170.00 $180.00 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 PricePerSq.FtforClosedSales Month Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales
  • 67. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com $91 $100 $113 $133 $149 $154 $153 $136 $132 $119 $121 $130 $139 $143 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $160.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (thru 10/31) PricePerSquareFoot Year Condominium/Townhouse Prices Condominium/Townhouse Prices 6767 Condominium prices in 2015 are 2.9% higher than 2014 and 19.68% higher than 2011 prices. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line.. Source: CVRMLS data 11/20/15
  • 68. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Richmond Real Estate Areas 6868 The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
  • 69. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 158 52 234 146 113 111 284 291 172 119 171 113 343 444 122 457 174 177 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 NoofActiveListings Area Single Family Active Listings By Area (11/23/15) Active Single Family Listings By Area 6969 The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 62 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
  • 70. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com $270,871 $439,428 $346,088 $425,413 $175,116 $158,640 $336,298 $304,978 $155,011 $117,245 $244,570 $67,844 $186,330 $227,052 $208,293 $274,776 $349,354 $278,067 $259,620 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 AllRichmond AverageSalesPrice Area Average Sales Price By Area (11/14-10/15) Single Family Greater Richmond Sales Price by Area 7070 Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond is $259,620 shown by the red line. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
  • 71. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price per Square Foot 3/14-2/15) 7171 Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15 $143.77 $194.35 $141.09 $151.23 $98.32 $94.60 $132.04 $123.17 $89.55 $76.68 $115.58 $51.16 $91.25 $102.74 $108.71 $112.11 $122.71 $125.65 $117.65 $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 PriceperSquareFoot Area Price per Square Foot By Area (11/14-10/15
  • 72. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2.7 1.9 2.4 5.6 3.6 2.9 3.3 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.9 5.4 3.5 3.7 2.3 3.4 3.6 5.2 3.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 MonthsofInventory Area Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area Inventory of Single Family Houses 7272 As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 3. 4 months. Source: CVRMLS data 11/23/15
  • 73. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Summary 7373
  • 74. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR Economic Forecast 7474 Source: National Association of Realtors11/14 2013 2014 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast GDP Growth 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 3.0% Job Growth +2.3 M +3.0 M +2.4 M +2.7 M CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 3.2% Consumer Confidence 73 87 90 101 10-year Treasury 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3%
  • 75. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR Housing Forecast 7575 Source: National Association of Realtors 11/15
  • 76. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2000 vs 2014 7676 Source: National Association of Realtors 9/14 +12%
  • 77. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Summary • Sales are up • Inventory is low • Prices are rising • The interest rate is rising 7777
  • 78. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Questions? Lacy.Williams@joynerfineproperties.com Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties 804-864-0316 7878

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab14.xls
  2. http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity
  3. http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/08/existing-home-sales-maintain-solid-growth-in-july
  4. http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20150724_june_home_sales_up.html
  5. www.realtor.org
  6. http://www.realtor.org/
  7. http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2014.pdf
  8. http://www.realtor.org/
  9. http://www.realtor.org/
  10. http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/2015-08-realtors-confidence-index-09-21-2015.pdf
  11. http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/26/shrinking-inventory/#sf7126105
  12. http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  13. http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/09/existing-home-sales-stall-in-august-prices-moderate
  14. https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2015_HPE_Survey.php
  15. http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx#.VUuUJmbLZm0
  16. http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/march_2015_public_outlook.pdf
  17. http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/homeownership/20150416_mortgage_rates_still_a_deal.html
  18. http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052115.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/may_2015_public_outlook.pdf https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mortgage%20Finance%20Forecast%20May%202015.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/phs-4-29/Forecast-04-2015-us-economic-outlook-04-29-2015.pdf
  19. http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/homeownership/20150715_equity_matters.html#prclt-NM22sUgp
  20. http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm