www.RichmondHousingToday.com                    The Greater Richmond Real                          Estate Market          ...
Background              www.RichmondHousingToday.com • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA  ...
www.RichmondHousingToday.com                        The National MarketProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   3
US Pending Home Sales                                                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com    105.0              ...
US Inventory of Homes for Sale                                                                                            ...
US Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes                                                                                              ...
US Home Prices Next Year                                                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com         3.5        ...
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward                                                                             www.RichmondHous...
The Cost of Waiting a Year                                                 www.RichmondHousingToday.com                   ...
US Percentage of Distressed Property Sales                                                                                ...
US Housing Starts                                                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com                          ...
Housing Facts                                                                                       www.RichmondHousingTod...
www.RichmondHousingToday.com                           Greater Richmond                           Housing Market          ...
www.RichmondHousingToday.com          Market Indicator #1:          The Number of Sales is          Up!!!Property of Lacy ...
Number of Single Family House Sales by Year                                                                               ...
Number of Single Family House Sales by                                               Month and Year                       ...
Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter                                                                                   ...
Third and Fourth Quarter Sales                                                                   www.RichmondHousingToday....
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com                                      ...
Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter                                                                              ...
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters                                                                             ...
Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales                                                                                  ...
www.RichmondHousingToday.com          Market Indicator #2:          Inventory is Down!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner ...
Months Supply’s Impact on Price                                              www.RichmondHousingToday.com                 ...
Inventory of Single Family Houses                                         by Month in Greater Richmond                    ...
Single Family Inventory by Price Range                                                                                    ...
Single Family Inventory by County                                            www.RichmondHousingToday.com                 ...
Inventory of Condominiums                           www.RichmondHousingToday.com                                         I...
www.RichmondHousingToday.com          Market Indicator #3:          Prices have bottomed out          and are rising!!!Pro...
Single Family Average Sales Price By Month                                                                                ...
Greater Richmond Single Family Price                                        Per Square Foot by Month                      ...
Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for                                         Single Family House Sales in Greater Ric...
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter                                                                            ...
Single Family Year over Year Price Change                                                                                 ...
2011 vs 2012 Prices By County                                                www.RichmondHousingToday.com                 ...
Condominium Price Per Square Foot                                                                          www.RichmondHou...
Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond                                           Condominium Sales By Year            ...
Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change                                By Price Range                                   ...
Richmond Real Estate Areas        www.RichmondHousingToday.com                                                         The...
Active Single Family Listings By Area                                                                                     ...
Single Family Average Sales Price By Area                                                                                 ...
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area                                                                               ...
Inventory of Single Family Houses                                                       www.RichmondHousingToday.com      ...
Richmond Housing Today December 2012
Richmond Housing Today December 2012
Richmond Housing Today December 2012
Richmond Housing Today December 2012
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Richmond Housing Today December 2012

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Richmond Housing Today December 2012

  1. 1. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine PropertiesProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1
  2. 2. Background www.RichmondHousingToday.com • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in November 2012 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined by Joyner Fine Properties as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2
  3. 3. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The National MarketProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3
  4. 4. US Pending Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 105.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales at that time but the number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention. Forecasts are for the number of sales to continue to increase as the economy improves.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 4
  5. 5. US Inventory of Homes for Sale www.RichmondHousingToday.com 10.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 9.0 Months of Inventory 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is approximately a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 5 NAR 10/2012
  6. 6. US Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes www.RichmondHousingToday.comSource: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 As shown above, prices have risen during the past year in the Southeast including Virginia. Prices are still declining in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 6 FHFA 2Q HPI Report
  7. 7. US Home Prices Next Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3.5 3.25 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 3 2.8 2.5 2.44 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Home Price Expectation Survey National Association of Business WSJ Economic Survey Economists Three leading National Groups are forecasting price increases to continue next year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 7
  8. 8. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward www.RichmondHousingToday.com “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted. Rates on the 30-year fixed- Projected Average 30 Year Rate 4.5 4.4 rate mortgage are expected 4.4 to average 3.8% in the 4.3 4.2 fourth quarter of 2012, rising 4.1 4 to 3.9% in the first quarter 3.9 3.9 3.8 of 2013 and eventually rising 3.8 3.7 to an average 4.4% by the 3.6 fourth quarter of next year.” 3.5 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 4Q Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 MarketWatch 10/24/2012
  9. 9. The Cost of Waiting a Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Interest Date Price P&I Rate Today $200,000 3.5% $898.09 2013 4Q $204,880 4.4% $1,025.96 Difference in Payment $127.87 With prices rising and the interest rate going up, waiting to buy a house will cost you significantly more. The example above shows that waiting just a year will cost you $127.87 more for a $200,000 house.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9
  10. 10. US Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 35% 30% 25% 24% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Another positive sign is that the percentage of distressed property sales (including foreclosures and short sales) has been declining.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 10 NAR 10/2012
  11. 11. US Housing Starts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: NAR Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line). In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents. Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 11
  12. 12. Housing Facts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Median Home Prices UP 7.3% rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs Existing Distressed -33% Home Sales +8.6% Properties Existing Mortgage Inventory -24.4% - .86% Rates Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12
  13. 13. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13
  14. 14. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 14
  15. 15. Number of Single Family House Sales by Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales Number of Single Family 18000 15262 15533 16450 15074 House Sales 16000 12737 12644 14000 12000 9482 9069 8574 9051 9071 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 ) 200 200 200 200 200 2 00 2 00 200 201 201 /26 11 u hr (T 12 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/26/12 The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 has, as of Nov 26, already had more sales than 2011!!!.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15
  16. 16. Number of Single Family House Sales by Month and Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond By Month and Year 2000 Number of Closed Sales 1800 2006 1600 2007 1400 1200 2008 1000 2009 800 2010 600 400 2011 200 2012 0 Aug Apr May Jul Jan Jun Oct Mar Nov Dec Feb Sept Month Source: CVRMLS data This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales has been dropping every year from 2006 through 2010. In the later part of 2011, sales started to increase. Sales have continued to increase in 2012 have been higher than sales for the same months in the past 3 years!! June 2012 sales were equivalent to June 2010 sales when we had a tax credit. And October sales were higher than the previous 2 years in October.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16
  17. 17. Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter Sales by Year 4000 Number of First 3161 Quarter Sales 2892 3000 2088 1903 1612 1786 2000 1487 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12 Year 2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011. Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales in the first quarter of 2012 Sales by Year were higher than sales for the 4567 Number of Second past 3 years. And sales in the 5000 3919 Quarter Sales second quarter were higher than 4000 3013 3040 2910 2533 2622 3000 sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2000 2011 second quarters. Note that 1000 there was a tax credit stimulus 0 that expired during the second 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 quarter of 2010 making sales Year 2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011. then artificially high.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 17
  18. 18. Third and Fourth Quarter Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales by Year Source: CVRMLS Data 11/26/12 5000 Number of Closed 4111 4000 3421 2692 2772 2526 Sales 3000 2496 1999 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 is 11% higher than 2011. Year Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth Quarter sales Sales in the third quarter of 2012 by Year were higher than sales for the 3500 3222 past 4 years!! Sales in the fourth Number of Sales 3000 quarter of 2011 were higher than 2362 2357 the fourth quarter of 2010. Note 2500 2123 that we had a tax credit during 2000 1707 1847 the fourth quarter of 2009 making 1500 sales artificially high. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 is 15% higher than 2010. YearProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 18
  19. 19. Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales Number of Condominium 2500 2035 2000 1761 1757 1382 1253 Sales 1500 1154 1093 1201 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Thru 11/25) Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in dark blue) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) through Nov 25 th are already higher than 2011 sales!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 19
  20. 20. Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 500 No of First Quarter 428 376 400 310 267 Source: CVRMLS data Sales 300 242 190 189 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 sales were 10% higher than 2011 sales. Year Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium Sales by Year The first quarter of 2012 had more sales than the first quarter of the 800 Condominium 601 No of Closed 529 previous 3 years. The second quarter 600 420 431 Sales 389 344 of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 400 324 2009 second quarters. There was a 200 tax credit which ended in the second 0 quarter of 2010 so sales were 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 artificially stimulated. 2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales. Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 20
  21. 21. Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium Sales by Year 800 Number of Sales 578 600 499 393 400 355 345 325 Source: CVRMLS data 219 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 2012 salesCVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: were 21% higher than 2011 sales. Greater Richmond Fourth Quarter Condominium Sales by Year Fourth Quarter Sales 500 Third quarter sales in 2012 were 424 400 339 higher than third quarter sales of the 288 287 300 233 225 previous 4 years!! The fourth quarter 200 of 2011 had higher sales than the 100 fourth quarter of 2010. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 21
  22. 22. Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change $0-$250,000 6057 6814 12.50% $250,001-$500,000 2318 2656 14.58% In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales $500,001-$750,000 393 458 16.54% by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic $750,001-$1,000,000 103 104 0.97% increases in the higher price $1,000,001+ 34 40 17.65% points. In the single family market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points. Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change $0-$250,000 879 1083 23.21% $250,001-$500,000 259 296 14.29%Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 $500,001+ 13 31 138.46%Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 22
  23. 23. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 23
  24. 24. Months Supply’s Impact on Price www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We arecurrently almost at a normal market amount of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 24
  25. 25. Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4468. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 25
  26. 26. Single Family Inventory by Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.6 $250,001-$500,000 5.2 $500,001-$750,000 7.5 $750,001-$1,000,000 12.0 $1,000,001+ 16.9 The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is increasing.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 26
  27. 27. Single Family Inventory by County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory By County/City 12.0 9.5 10.0 8.4 Inventory 8.0 4.9 5.8 4.7 4.8 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Richmond Richmond Henrico Goochland Hanover Chesterfield Powhatan City of All Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 County The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 27
  28. 28. Inventory of Condominiums www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Condominiums in Greater Richmond 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 494.. The inventory in November of 2012 is more than 6 months less than in November of 2010. This is a sign of recovery.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 28
  29. 29. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #3: Prices have bottomed out and are rising!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 29
  30. 30. Single Family Average Sales Price By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Month $330,000 Average Sales Price $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have hit the bottom and are rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011 and the low points are also higher.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 30
  31. 31. Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Per Square Foot For $150.00 $140.00 Closed Sales $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2012 is higher than last year and the winter low does not seem to be occurring.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 31
  32. 32. Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year Price Per Square Foot $150 $135.82 $139.64 $132.43 $140 $130 $123.38 $117.82 $120 $112.24 $107.60 $104.98 $105.83 $110 $99.65 $100 $92.37 $90 $80 6) 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 /2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 11 ru h (T 12 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2012 prices being approximately 1% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still at 2004 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 32
  33. 33. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 $145.00 Price per Square Foot $135.00 $125.00 $115.00 $105.00 $95.00 $85.00 $75.00 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter Sales Sales Sales SalesWhen looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09,10 and 11. 2012 is almost equal to 2011. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and332012 is equal to 2011. The third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 33
  34. 34. Single Family Year over Year Price Change www.RichmondHousingToday.com Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 10.1% 10.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.0% -5.2% -4.7% -10.0% -6.5% -11.0% -15.0% Year over year price change shows that 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 34
  35. 35. 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012 (Thru 8/15) 8.00% 5.64% 6.00% 4.00% 2.61% 1.76% 1.48% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% d nd o -1.26% ld er an on ri c ie ov la -4.00% t m ha rf en ch an ch e w H st -6.00% oo H Ri Po he G of C -8.00% ity C -10.00%CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: -8.89% Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatan still has some challenges.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 35
  36. 36. Condominium Price Per Square Foot www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond $170.00 Price Per Square Foot $160.00 $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Price per square foot is a good indicator of prices. Notice that the highs in price per square foot are higher than last year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 36
  37. 37. Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year Price per Square Foot $160 $149.49 $154.00 $152.70 $150 $133.49 $135.62 $131.55 $140 $119.16 $120.54 $130 $113.32 $120 $100.03 $110 $90.84 $100 $90 $80 $70 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 ) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 /25 11 u hr (T 2 201 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/11 Year The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2012 are on average slightly higher than 2011 indicating that prices have bottomed out and are starting to rise. Prices are expected to continue rising next year. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 37
  38. 38. Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price per Square Foot Change in Greater RichmondPrice Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change$0-$250,000 $86.82 $86.55 -0.31% $0-$250,000 $109.87 $106.89 -2.71%$250,001-$500,000 $121.06 $122.06 0.83% $250,001-$500,000 $149.59 $152.02 1.62%$500,001-$750,000 $153.84 $154.13 0.19%$750,001-$1,000,000 $180.47 $176.85 -2.01% $500,001+ $180.00 $191.45 6.36%$1,000,001+ $214.61 $238.39 11.08% In the condominium market, price per square foot is increasing in the higher price points. In the single family market, prices were dropping in Greater Richmond through the early spring of 2012 but have been rising since then. So the decreases seen in price per square foot on this graph should be followed by increases in a few months. Note the increase at the highest price point. Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 38
  39. 39. Richmond Real Estate Areas www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. The analysis of MLS data was generally done for each month during the middle of the following month. MLS analysis may differ depending on what date the information is taken from the MLS system.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 39
  40. 40. Active Single Family Listings By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Active Listings By Area (As of 11/25/12) Number of Active Single 600 483 Family Listings 500 448 373 400 300 223 227 225 250 201 254 218 193 174 167 149 146 121 158 200 62 100 0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are approximately 3500 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 40
  41. 41. Single Family Average Sales Price By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House $423,448 Sales (11/1/11-10/31/12) $387,164 $332,606 $450,000 $315,955 $307,427 $276,901 $400,000 Average Sales Price $247,923 $235,302 $227,469 $350,000 $220,321 $215,248 $209,180 $179,057 $300,000 $156,854 $142,618 $138,951 $250,000 $123,710 $102,621 $200,000 $60,763 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 All 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 41
  42. 42. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House Closed Sales By Area (11/1/11-10/31/12) $176.34 Price Per Square Foot $124.87 $200.00 $122.60 $117.76 $112.13 $108.24 $107.59 $105.68 $106.91 $99.63 $97.94 $91.64 $92.73 $90.02 $150.00 $81.11 $81.19 $68.93 $66.32 $42.93 $100.00 $50.00 $0.00 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 d on hm Ric All Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest price per square foot.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 42
  43. 43. Inventory of Single Family Houses www.RichmondHousingToday.com Supply of Houses by Area in Months 12.0 Months of Supply 9.5 10.0 8.4 7.3 6.8 7.9 8.0 6.2 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.1 4.9 5.2 6.0 4.2 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.0 All Richmond 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. The areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the highest supply of houses at 8.4 and 9.5 months. Richmond is following a nationwide trend—people are moving back into the cities.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 43

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