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Foreclosures in California How Much, How Many and How Quick Will They Come?
 
 
Stocks Down Recession Likely?
Fed Moves to Ease Short Term  Federal Funds Rate
 
A Unique Storm is Gathering   National Appreciation Rate Negative for the First Time since the Great Depression
Estimated Price Declines
Orange County Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lenders Tightening
Most Common Loans Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Americans Saving Less
Will Main Street Drag Wall Street Down?
GDP Weakening to 2.0% ?
Foreigners to the Rescue ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Dollar Losing Value Inflation Pressures Building
Inflation Raises Its Ugly Head
The World is Inflating, Too
Two Thirds of the American Economy is Based on Consumer Spending
Foreclosure Rates for Top 100 Metro Areas Rate Rank MSA Foreclosure Filings 1 filing for every #HH %Δ from First Half 2006 1 Stockton, CA 8,169 27 256 2 Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn, MI 28,705 29 99 3 Las Vegas/Paradise, NV 22,928 31 142 4 Riverside/San Bernardino, CA 41,351 33 198 5 Sacramento, CA 20,516 36 241 6 Denver/Aurora, CO 23,842 42 11 7 Miami, FL 20,275 46 74 8 Bakersfield, CA 5,365 47 222 9 Memphis, TN 10,800 49 17 10 Cleveland/Lorain/Elyria/Mentor, OH 18,844 50 106 11 Fort Lauderdale, FL 15,720 50 72 12 Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta, GA 36,502 54 17 13 Fort Worth/Arlington, TX 13,221 57 -10 14 Fresno, CA 4,867 60 183 15 Indianapolis, IN 11,677 62 -6
 
 
 
Frankenstein Loans Adjusting to Monster Payments
Southern California Trustee Sales Explode as a Percentage of Defaults (Dataquick) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
National Rent to Price Ratio Out of Equilibrium
Market Sub-prime Share Market Sub-prime Share All Metros 19% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 28% Stockton-Lodi, CA 41% Mansfield, OH 27% Modesto, CA 41% Sacramento, CA 27% Richmond-Petersburg, VA 41% Jackson, TN 26% Merced, CA 41% Lansing-East Lansing, MI 26% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 36% Detroit, MI 26% Bakersfield, CA 36% Oakland, CA 26% Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa, CA 35% New Bedford, MA 25% Brockton, MA 33% Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 25% Fresno, CA 32% Terre Haute, IN 25% Jackson, MI 31% Pine Bluff, AR 25% Fort Lauderdale, FL 31% Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 25% Flint, MI 30% Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL 25% Salinas, CA 30% Cumberland, MD-WV 24% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 29% Redding, CA 24% Pueblo, CO 29% Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 24% Yuba City, CA 29% Sharon, PA 24% Laredo, TX 28% St. Joseph, MO 24% Steubenville-Weirton, OH-WV 28% Las Vegas, NV-AZ 24%
 
Where the Sub-primes Are
Sub-primes ARMS Peak  Option ARMS Peak 2011  2008
REOS Who’s Got Them and Who’s Got the Most Bank 4-20-07 1-10-07 Percentage Increase Fannie Mae 107 784 632% Freddie Mac 66 420 536% Horizon 240 1005 318 % REO Source 142 594 318% Bank of America 13 136 946% Countrywide 1,208 4051 235% Downey 45 332 637% Indy Mac 52 575 1005% Ocwen 301 1298 331% Wilshire 440 840 91% Wells Fargo 1,780 4485 151% HUD 11 11 0.0 % VA 18 14 -22 % World/Wachovia (SOCAL) 23 94 357%
Anatomy of a Mortgage Backed Security (MBS)
2006 Proves to Be the Weakest Underwriting Guidelines in History
679 Billion in Subprime Securities Issued Last Year ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Countrywide’s (Bank of America) California Portfolio ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Signs of Spring
Consumer Spending Slowing, Exports Getting Stronger
Exports Up, Imports Down Port of Long Beach Imports Down Exports Hit Record in 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Real Wages Up
Demographics is Destiny
Population Trends 2000-2006
 
Market Month of Market Peak 10 Year Appreciation Prior to Peak Months into Downturn (as of July 07) % Decline from Peak (as of July 07)           Los Angeles  Sep-06 267% 10 -4.8% San Diego  Nov-05 251% 21 -8.3% San Francisco  May-06 223% 14 -4.5% Miami  Dec-06 219% 8 -7.3% Washington  May-06 182% 14 -7.6% Phoenix, Ariz.  Jun-06 179% 13 -7.3% Tampa, Fla.  Jul-06 171% 12 -8.8% New York  Jun-06 170% 13 -4.0% Las Vegas  Aug-06 161% 11 -6.3% Boston  Sep-05 158% 22 -5.8% Seattle, Wash.  --- 135% --- --- Minneapolis, Minn.  Sep-06 117% 10 -3.7% Portland, Ore.  --- 100% --- --- Chicago  Sep-06 96% 10 -1.5% Denver  Aug-06 89% 11 -0.7% Detroit, Mich.  Dec-05 72% 20 -12.4% Atlanta, Ga.  --- 59% --- --- Charlotte, N.C.  --- 48% --- --- Cleveland, Ohio  Jul-06 41% 12 -3.6% Dallas, Texas* --- 26% --- ---      *Dallas index compiled only since January 2000      Source: S&P Case Shiller National Price indices    
Silver Lake, CA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Landlord’s Outlook 2008 (Location is Key) Source: US Census Bureau ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Landlord’s Outlook 2008 (cont) Top 10 Rental Appreciation Cities  (Realfacts.com ) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Strategies for the Five Stages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stage 5 The Early Decline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ten Signs the Market Bottom Has Passed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ten Signs the Market Bottom Has Passed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Websites ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ How to Profit from the Rising Wave of Bank Foreclosures” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Author of the Top Rated Real Estate Book of the Year, Steve Dexter brings you a brand new seminar
In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why people Came “ How to Profit from the Coming Wave of Bank Foreclosures ” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ How to Profit from the Rising Wave of Bank Foreclosures” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Author of the Top Rated Real Estate Book of the Year, Steve Dexter brings you a brand new seminar
Goal Setting Session  “Create the Blueprint for the Rest of Your Life” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Foreclosures in California

  • 1. Foreclosures in California How Much, How Many and How Quick Will They Come?
  • 2.  
  • 3.  
  • 5. Fed Moves to Ease Short Term Federal Funds Rate
  • 6.  
  • 7. A Unique Storm is Gathering National Appreciation Rate Negative for the First Time since the Great Depression
  • 9.
  • 11.
  • 13. Will Main Street Drag Wall Street Down?
  • 15.
  • 16.  
  • 17. Dollar Losing Value Inflation Pressures Building
  • 18. Inflation Raises Its Ugly Head
  • 19. The World is Inflating, Too
  • 20. Two Thirds of the American Economy is Based on Consumer Spending
  • 21. Foreclosure Rates for Top 100 Metro Areas Rate Rank MSA Foreclosure Filings 1 filing for every #HH %Δ from First Half 2006 1 Stockton, CA 8,169 27 256 2 Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn, MI 28,705 29 99 3 Las Vegas/Paradise, NV 22,928 31 142 4 Riverside/San Bernardino, CA 41,351 33 198 5 Sacramento, CA 20,516 36 241 6 Denver/Aurora, CO 23,842 42 11 7 Miami, FL 20,275 46 74 8 Bakersfield, CA 5,365 47 222 9 Memphis, TN 10,800 49 17 10 Cleveland/Lorain/Elyria/Mentor, OH 18,844 50 106 11 Fort Lauderdale, FL 15,720 50 72 12 Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta, GA 36,502 54 17 13 Fort Worth/Arlington, TX 13,221 57 -10 14 Fresno, CA 4,867 60 183 15 Indianapolis, IN 11,677 62 -6
  • 22.  
  • 23.  
  • 24.  
  • 25. Frankenstein Loans Adjusting to Monster Payments
  • 26.
  • 27. National Rent to Price Ratio Out of Equilibrium
  • 28. Market Sub-prime Share Market Sub-prime Share All Metros 19% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 28% Stockton-Lodi, CA 41% Mansfield, OH 27% Modesto, CA 41% Sacramento, CA 27% Richmond-Petersburg, VA 41% Jackson, TN 26% Merced, CA 41% Lansing-East Lansing, MI 26% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 36% Detroit, MI 26% Bakersfield, CA 36% Oakland, CA 26% Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa, CA 35% New Bedford, MA 25% Brockton, MA 33% Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 25% Fresno, CA 32% Terre Haute, IN 25% Jackson, MI 31% Pine Bluff, AR 25% Fort Lauderdale, FL 31% Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 25% Flint, MI 30% Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL 25% Salinas, CA 30% Cumberland, MD-WV 24% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 29% Redding, CA 24% Pueblo, CO 29% Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 24% Yuba City, CA 29% Sharon, PA 24% Laredo, TX 28% St. Joseph, MO 24% Steubenville-Weirton, OH-WV 28% Las Vegas, NV-AZ 24%
  • 29.  
  • 31. Sub-primes ARMS Peak Option ARMS Peak 2011 2008
  • 32. REOS Who’s Got Them and Who’s Got the Most Bank 4-20-07 1-10-07 Percentage Increase Fannie Mae 107 784 632% Freddie Mac 66 420 536% Horizon 240 1005 318 % REO Source 142 594 318% Bank of America 13 136 946% Countrywide 1,208 4051 235% Downey 45 332 637% Indy Mac 52 575 1005% Ocwen 301 1298 331% Wilshire 440 840 91% Wells Fargo 1,780 4485 151% HUD 11 11 0.0 % VA 18 14 -22 % World/Wachovia (SOCAL) 23 94 357%
  • 33. Anatomy of a Mortgage Backed Security (MBS)
  • 34. 2006 Proves to Be the Weakest Underwriting Guidelines in History
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 38. Consumer Spending Slowing, Exports Getting Stronger
  • 39.
  • 40.  
  • 44.  
  • 45. Market Month of Market Peak 10 Year Appreciation Prior to Peak Months into Downturn (as of July 07) % Decline from Peak (as of July 07)           Los Angeles Sep-06 267% 10 -4.8% San Diego Nov-05 251% 21 -8.3% San Francisco May-06 223% 14 -4.5% Miami Dec-06 219% 8 -7.3% Washington May-06 182% 14 -7.6% Phoenix, Ariz. Jun-06 179% 13 -7.3% Tampa, Fla. Jul-06 171% 12 -8.8% New York Jun-06 170% 13 -4.0% Las Vegas Aug-06 161% 11 -6.3% Boston Sep-05 158% 22 -5.8% Seattle, Wash. --- 135% --- --- Minneapolis, Minn. Sep-06 117% 10 -3.7% Portland, Ore. --- 100% --- --- Chicago Sep-06 96% 10 -1.5% Denver Aug-06 89% 11 -0.7% Detroit, Mich. Dec-05 72% 20 -12.4% Atlanta, Ga. --- 59% --- --- Charlotte, N.C. --- 48% --- --- Cleveland, Ohio Jul-06 41% 12 -3.6% Dallas, Texas* --- 26% --- ---    *Dallas index compiled only since January 2000     Source: S&P Case Shiller National Price indices    
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.

Editor's Notes

  1. After the sugar-high of the mortgage world fades, an estimated 2.2 million households will likely hurl home ownership in the nest 4 years , according to the Center for Responsible Lending's "Losing Ground: Foreclosures in the Subprime Market and Their Cost to Homeowners" 1.1 Million according to the MBA Tonight, we are going to talk about The Subprime Contagion Affect The People and the Areas most likely to get hit How this affect will play out from the lenders into the markets What lenders, builders and realtors are most likely to get hit ---the present state of the real estate markets is and where it is likely to go How the Subprime contagion effect will effect the real estate industry and the larger US economy To homeowners in trouble---How to talk to the people in loss mitigation if you are in foreclosure To investors seeking to profit----How to talk to the REO departments