Presentation on the future of tourism and tourist experiences 2050, Future Forum Napoli (October 28, 2014).

1. Tourism in 2050
European Tourism Futures Institute
Jeroen Oskam

2. 1. the European Tourism Futures Institute
2. Strategy and scenario thinking
3. Tourism in 2050
4. Experiences?

3. The ETFI specializes in scenario planning for
the international tourism industry
Based in the Netherlands; tourism researchers
from 17 EU-countries.
1. European Tourism Futures Institute

4. The ETFI publishes academic publications
and the Journal of Tourism Futures
1. European Tourism Futures Institute

5. Free reports on “Tourism Futures” issues
available on our website etfi.eu
1. European Tourism Futures Institute

6. We used to look at only three variables: our
business, our clients and our competitors.
2. Strategy and scenario thinking
“Strategy as Planning”
A company’s chess play determined by the variables
of its own operations, its customers and its
competitors.
“Deliberately choosing a different set of activities to
deliver a unique mix of value”(Porter)
2. Strategy and scenario thinking

7. The “horse manure crisis” (1894) shows
the limitation of trend extrapolations.
We used to think of the
business environment as a
“Surprise-free”
future.
2. Strategy and scenario thinking

8. “Future-proof” businesses scan the external
environment for changes; learn to adapt.
2. Strategy and scenario thinking.
From “Strategy as Planning” to “Strategy as
Learning”.
• Increased awareness of the volatility of the
environment.
• Resilience and strategic robustness.
• Metaphor of evolutionary biology.
2. Strategy and scenario thinking

9. We cannot predict the future but we can
anticipate all options, as a chess player.
2. Strategy and scenario thinking
From forecasts to scenarios
• Forecasting: quantitative estimate of the future outcomes
of current developments.
• Scenarios as “an internally consistent view of what the
future might turn out to be” (Porter).
• “a well-worked answer to the question: ‘What can
conceivably happen?’” (Lindgren and Bandhold).
• “Future memory” (De Geus).
2. Strategy and scenario thinking

10. Two key words in Future Proofing:
“What if …?”
Wat kan er hier de komende jaren veranderen?

11. The future of tourism depends on global wealth distribution,
available resources and the evolution of technology.
3. Tourism in 2050
A. Distribution of wealth in our own society and over
3. Tourism in 2050
the world.
2050
B. Availability of
resources: oil,
water, food
C. Technology

12. 20% of BRIC tourists will travel globally; massive numbers.
But they look at our destinations differently.
3. Tourism in 2050
A. Distribution of
wealth

13. We now take showers as long as we want in our hotel and
pay for 1 hour of Wifi. In 2050 this will seem absurd.
3. Tourism in 2050
B. Availability
of resources

14. Technological developments will go faster and faster: our
knowledge will grow explosively with the size of our population.
C. Technology “Exponential growth”
3. Tourism in 2050

15. Workforce scarcity may limit the growth of
Middle East destinations.
Qatar will invest 40-
45 Billion in tourism
development. Are
their plans realistic?
3. Tourism in 2050

16. Political and economic volatility may affect
European destinations.
The UK may
leave the EU,
Scotland and
Catalonia discuss
independence.
What will this
mean for
tourism?
3. Tourism in 2050

17. When movie theaters were introduced, it was thought that
people would stop travelling. How about virtual reality?
Is virtual reality a
threat or an
opportunity for
tourism?
3. Tourism in 2050

18. “@SamuelVetrak: “Youth tourists travel to
something, not away from something”.
4. Experiences in 2050?
More wealth,
more choice,
more information:
Different holiday
decisions.
4. Experiences in 2050

19. In 2050 we will still look for the optimal experience
but the 3 drivers will change its composition.
4. Experiences in 2050
A. Distribution of wealth
More wealth,
more choice,
more information
B. Availability
of resources
C. Technology

20. With increased wealth we were willing to pay for staged extras,
but as our wealth decreases the trend will be commoditization.
4. Experiences in 2050 A: “De-experiencing”

21. The kind of experiences we can get will depend on
the availability and price of energy and water.
4. Experiences in 2050 B. More limited choices

22. Tourism will continue to grow. But how will tourist
pressure affect the value of a destination?
B. Pressure on cities
4. Experiences in 2050

23. Will the internet be an open communication platform or
will content be filtered politically and commercially?
Will Google, Facebook
and Amazon dominate
tourism marketing?
4. Experiences in 2050

25. Final
Please visit www.etfi.eu for information on:
• Trends in tourism
• Scenario planning
methods
• Current projects
• Downloadable
reports
• Publications
Jeroen Oskam @TourismFutures