This document discusses scenario planning for tourism development in the Middle East between now and 2030. It identifies three major issues: 1) anticipated significant workforce growth which could cause wage inflation and quality issues, 2) strong regional competition that may lead to oversupply and price wars, and 3) changing future consumer behavior driven by technology and socioeconomics that will impact customer preferences and expectations. The document advocates developing resilient strategies by considering different scenarios and uncertainties, and monitoring trends to understand the evolving tourist profile.

2. Tourism Development in the Middle East: Scenarios and Wildcards 2030
• Scenario thinking
• Major issue no. 1: workforce
• Major issue no. 2: regional competition
• Major issue no. 3: future consumer behavior
• What can you do with this?
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3. Scenario thinking
• “Strategy as Planning” – Strategic thinking used to be defined by
variables under control of the company.
• A company’s chess play determined by the variables of its own
operations, its customers and its competitors.
• “Deliberately choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique
mix of value”(Porter)
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4. We used to think of the business environment as a “Surprise-free” future.
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5. Scenario thinking
• From forecasts to scenarios
• Forecasting: quantitative estimate of the future outcomes of current
developments
• Scenarios as “an internally consistent view of what the future might
turn out to be” (Porter).
• “a well-worked answer to the question: ‘What can conceivably
happen?’” (Lindgren and Bandhold).
• “Future memory” (De Geus).
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6. Scenario thinking
In 1967, Shell launched Management by Objectives, “Unified Planning
Machinery”.
In 1968, “the cobblestones of Paris were flying through the air”. A short time
later the Club of Rome published its report on “The Limits of Growth.”
Shell’s specialised system of was not capable of providing answers to questions
about society's long-term natural resource decisions.
Shell responded well to the challenge. Top management created a new,
independent planning outfit to begin studying the company's social
environment.
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7. Scenario thinking
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The first scenarios were ready in 1972. It's noteworthy that among eight
scenarios presented that year, there was one which concerned a crisis in the
supply of oil. This scenario examined a world in which the price of a barrel of
oil four years hence, in 1976, would be $8. It was a wildly unlikely scenario
at the time. In those days, the limits of a whole generation of oil managers’
known world were defined by the price of a barrel of oil from Kuwait , C.I.F.
Rotterdam that was $1.85 in 1972, down from $2.25 in 1951.
In 1972, many Shell managers could not believe that a world of $8.-/bbl oil
was even imaginable. They could not get themselves to start contemplating
what action to take in response to the $8 a barrel scenario.
“
”

8. Scenario thinking
“What if”:
Learn to think the
unthinkable as an
organisation.
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9. Future Proofing your Business

10. Future Proofing your Business

11. Future Proofing your Business
Scenario thinking
“Wildcards”:
Low probability, high
impact.

12. Future Proofing your Business

13. Scenario thinking “Scenario cross”
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14. Scenario thinking “Morphological scenarios”
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15. Scenario thinking “Strategic Foresight Framework”
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16. Major issue no. 1: Workforce
Anticipated workforce growth:
• Dubai: 277,000 new jobs for Expo 2020 (of which 110,000 tourism)
• Qatar: from 25,000 to 127,000 tourism jobs in 2030
• Abu Dhabi: 180,000 in 2015 to 383,000 total jobs in 2030
• KSA: 1.7 million new tourism jobs in 2020 (currently 751,000)
• Oman: 72,000 in 2013 to 116,000 tourism jobs in 2024
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17. Workforce - Plausible effects and complications:
• Countries of origin will experience economic growth
• Recruitment will become expensive and more difficult
• Wage inflation
• Increasing staff turnover
• Quality of service issues
• Shift from qualitative scarcity to quantitative scarcity
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18. Workforce - How to anticipate this scenario?
• Human capital will constitute a larger share of your budget
• Staff-guest ratio will be critical
• Guest acceptance of automation and robotization
• ROI 5 star hotels vs. 3 star hotels
• Maximize flexibility in concept design
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19. Major issue no.2: Regional competition
• Projected total growth ME: 101 million (2020) and 149 million
(2030) international tourist arrivals
• Dubai: 20 million (2020)
• Abu Dhabi: 4.9 million (2020); 7.9 million (2030)
• Qatar: 2.8-3.1 million (2020); 6.7-7.4 million (2030)
• Oman: 4 million (2020)
• KSA: 43 million (2020)
• Bahrain: 12.2 million (2020)
• Kuwait: 5.9 million (2020)
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20. Regional competition - Plausible effects and complications:
• Comparable proposition in different destinations
• Unmanaged differentiation imposed by visitors’ preferences
• Negative price spiral & cannibalisation
• Market volatility
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21. Regional competition - How to anticipate this scenario?
• Differentiate:
– Coordination at destination level: integrate destination branding in
entire “guest journey”
– Emphasize e.g. cultural heritage and other destination features
• Coordinate:
– Coordination & collaboration between destinations
– Regional tourism authority or platform
– Joint promotion & events
• Adjust expectations
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22. Major issue no. 3: Future consumer behavior
Socio-economic, cultural and technological developments will change
the:
• who,
• why,
• when,
• where and
• what of future hotel guests
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23. How will the guest shop in the future?
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24. Will a traveling middle class emerge?
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25. In which technology should you invest?
• New technologies may solve a number of problems,
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• but it may also mainly serve for branding purposes.

26. In which technology should you invest?
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Likelihood of Choosing Hotel With Robot by Age

27. In which technology should you invest?
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“Most customers these days demonstrate a huge — and increasing —
appetite for self-service, yet most companies run their operations as if
customers prefer to interact with them live.”

28. In which technology should you invest?
• The goal is to make your guests’ life easier.
• Avoid an “arms race”; remember the amenity wars (1990 and 2005)!
• In-room or “on-guest” entertainment (BYOD)? Guests especially
expect good connectivity.
• Don’t try to be a technology supplier. Be a technology facilitator.
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29. What can you do with this information?
• Do not just consider current trends but also uncertainties that will
shape the future
• Make your strategy resilient by developing action plans for different
scenarios
• Develop a future memory for plausible contingencies that may affect
your business
• The future tourist is a moving target, closely monitor developments
that will determine his long term behavior
• Avoid a technology “arms race”: become a connectivity facilitator,
not a technology supplier
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30. Dr. Jeroen Oskam
Research Centre Hotelschool The Hague
research@hotelschool.nl
Graciëlla Karijomedjo
European Tourism Futures Institute
info@etfi.eu | www.etfi.eu
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