Bullions: MCX Gold June Hourly Chart CMP:30224: Technical View: MCX Gold Prices has broke its horizontal trend line resistance at 30240 levels on hourly chart. Furthermore, Counter has witnessed Rectangle formation breakout on daily time frame.
GOLD -Gold reversed its fortunes somewhat last week, moving higher and ending what has been its worst tranche of losses in a
while. As a result, it may be worth taking a closer look at what was driving this price action and what it could mean moving forward.
In particular, we should take a look at the fundamental and technical factors that have been impacting,and will continue to impact, the
Iraq's Impact on Oil Markets, ASX Listed Energy Producer plus S&P500 OpportunityInvast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► The impact of Iraq on oil markets
► The depression in mining won’t last forever
► Australian listed energy producer
► S&P500 looks like a good short
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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Bullions: MCX Gold June Hourly Chart CMP:30224: Technical View: MCX Gold Prices has broke its horizontal trend line resistance at 30240 levels on hourly chart. Furthermore, Counter has witnessed Rectangle formation breakout on daily time frame.
GOLD -Gold reversed its fortunes somewhat last week, moving higher and ending what has been its worst tranche of losses in a
while. As a result, it may be worth taking a closer look at what was driving this price action and what it could mean moving forward.
In particular, we should take a look at the fundamental and technical factors that have been impacting,and will continue to impact, the
Iraq's Impact on Oil Markets, ASX Listed Energy Producer plus S&P500 OpportunityInvast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► The impact of Iraq on oil markets
► The depression in mining won’t last forever
► Australian listed energy producer
► S&P500 looks like a good short
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
http://invast.com.au/insights
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Brent Crude at depressed levels
► Iron Ore outlook with China slowdown
► AUDUSD outlook with falling commodities
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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BHP Billiton, RIO Tinto, Woodside Petroleum, Gold & Copper Analysed Plus Stoc...Invast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Aussie mining companies to avoid
► Outlook for Dr Copper
► BHP, RIO and WPL analysed
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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Silver price-forecast-and-silver-stocks 2017
When Will Silver Go Up Is the Highest Price of Silver Still to Come? A collection of articles from Silver Investing News looking at the silver price forecast
Silver price-forecast and silverstocksChris Helweg
In a recent interview with Investing News Network, analyst David Morgan said he is
more favorable to a longer consolidation period but that 2017 will definitely see a lift
throughout the year for silver and gold prices.
He suggested that investors should diversify if they are leaning towards the precious
metals, and said: “and then that portion of your portfolio, which I then recommend 10
maybe 20 percent if you are a full-fledged gold or silver bull.”
Daily comex-report-24-may-2018-by-epic-researchEpic Research
Epic Research is leading advisory firm which provides daily Comex report and Comex live gold and silver tips after analysis of change in rates of precious metals and following their trends shown every day. This helps our professional Comex trader to invest at the right place and right time.
The investment duo of Mark and Michele bravely tackle the popular Investment Myths head on.
Need to know if a trading myth is true or false? Call the Investment Mythbusters! Inspired by the popular TV series with a surprisingly similar name, Vunani Private Clients' Investment Managers Mark Weetman and Michele Santangelo have devoted themselves to combining elements of science, statistics, investment theory and some good old-fashioned luck to determine if popular investment beliefs are true or false.
Join the Vunani Private Clients’ team on the 21st May 2014 when they expose financial myths to their intensive analysis. No financial scuttle bug is safe when these professionals are around. Any bar room stock tips, trading strategy or Investment advice that you need testing, give these guys a call – or at least drop an email!
So join our trading team, who will be either busting or confirming some popular investment myths, including:
• Sell in May - like the soothsayer famously warned Julius Caesar, you need to “beware the Ides of March”, sorry that should have been the Ides of “May” with the sell in May myth.
• As Goes January, So Goes The Year!
• What has happened to Doctor Copper?
• Whether the Santa Clause rally will bring you the financial present you want, or will the Grinch will once again steal Xmas
And then they will show you how to trade them!
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Outlook on the Aussie 200 Index
► Aussie 200 will struggle at the 6000 level
► Dr Copper & Iron Ore relative to the Aus200
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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Outlook on the S&P500, Impact of a Strong US Dollar & Fed Interest Rate DecisionInvast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Outlook on the S&P500
► Will the Fed hike interest rates?
► Impact of a strong US Dollar on the S&P500
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Reviewing the DAX index
► A look back at several previous Dax calls
► Germany's Dax constituents
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► A look at the Australian Banks
► Will falling interest rates help?
► The big 4 banks analysed
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Japan's economic problems
► Long term implications of Japan's decisions
► Abe's influence on the Dollar Yen
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Market cap of Apple
► Where Apple is leveraged
► Apple and 2015
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Russell 2000 vs the S&P500
► Performance of Russell 2000
► PE Performance of Russell 2000
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Fundament drivers behind the Commodities
► The China slowdown effect
► The future of the Copper
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Your way of thinking determines results
► How we think about commodities at Invast
► Mining is becoming harder and more expensive
► What an ASX listed CEO told us recently
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► The impact of Iraq on oil markets
► The depression in mining won’t last forever
► Australian listed energy producer
► S&P500 looks like a good short
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
http://invast.com.au/insights
CONNECT WITH INVAST TODAY
Facebook ► https://www.facebook.com/invastglobal
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Dow Jones Outlook, David Jones Takeover & Technical Outlook on the Japanese D...Invast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Trade review on the Dow Jones
► David Jones takeover & valuation summary
► Technical outlook on Japanese Yen crosses
► Invast’s NEW daily Forex podcast channel
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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In his April 1 strategy update, Invast Senior Technical Strategist Vito Henjoto focused on the AUD currency and touched on the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement on their previous rate decision.
Included in this Invast Insights report, Turkey's economic condition was highlighted along with potential trading opportunities if the Turkish Lira collapses completely. Despite the economic issues of other countries, our Wealth Creation portfolio continued to hold up well and the Drawdown Phase portfolio traded above target.
Meanwhile, a case study for assessing other stocks is also included in this report. The case study - Forge Group (FGE): Example Of Fragility - showed that it is better to buy a robust business with little earnings than buying a business which appears to be making strong earnings but with poor composition.
Where will interest rates may be heading in Australia? This was the question we covered in this Invast Insights newsletter. We also shared the feedback on the Gold Seminar that we hosted in Sydney last October 25, 2013 with Robust Resources (ROL) Managing Director Gary Lewis. Lastly, we touched on our monthly portfolio review with proposed portfolio changes and details on BHP's quarterly production report.
This Invast report covered the October 2013 Portfolio Performance Review with emphasis on portfolio changes. We also mentioned trends in AGM sessions from reporting trading and earning numbers to growth plans like acquisitions and mergers. Lastly, we shared our book review of Tim Ferriss' The Four Hour Work Week with goal setting insights for traders and investors.
In this week's Invast report, we discussed The Federal Reserve and the future of money printing, then we mentioned the quality of assets for Australian banks; particularly ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australian Bank and Westpac. We also covered basic information on pivot points. Lastly, we answered a client question regarding stocks with very low liquidity.
In this Invast report, we discussed the pace of Chinese economic growth and how this affected investors' views of the country. We also mentioned Vision Eye Institute as one of our hidden gems plus facts about their business in terms of earnings and market capitalisation. Then we moved on to our key priorities for 2014 and answered a client question regarding stocks and the basis for valuing real assets.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
2. 22
This week we look at the following topics:
•Outlook on Commodities
•Oil & Natural Gas
•Copper, Silver & Gold
•Iron Ore & Coal
3. 33
Once all these forecasts are published you will have a great opportunity to ask your questions
in the webinar. If you have missed anything I will summarise it through the webinars so there
is no need for panic. I hope that this will position you well for the new financial year. The last
time we published a forecast guide was in January where we said that copper prices should
stabilise, energy prices are likely to remain strong and the best companies to consider for
share portfolio would be blue chip names who have been beaten down in 2013. We picked
the following stocks as our choice of exposures. I have copied the exact section in the report
from January for your reference.
4. 44
There is no point in writing a new set of forecasts for the market without
reviewing how our last set of forecasts performed. If you are a new client or
haven’t been reading Invast Insights since the beginning of the year, the full link
to the 2014 forecast guide can be found here. I prefer if you visit the link later,
it’s not worth distracting yourself at the moment because what I am about to
publish below is perhaps more important.
What I will say is that since the beginning of the year, the performance of the
stocks we picked has been as follows – Leighton Holdings +31%, Newcrest
mining +41%, Oz Minerals +37%, Qantas +14%, QBE Insurance -4% and Worley
Parsons +12%. The average return across these six stocks has been 22% in just
six months. Keep in mind that we haven’t included dividends here. Adding
dividends would see the return closer to around 25%. Over the same period
the ASX200 has been up by only +2.8%.
5. 55
Not all of the stocks which we picked made money, but most of them did. I
hope this provides some context into the comments that you will read over the
next few weeks, we do have a contrarian style but we measure and qualify all
our comments.
This week I’m talking about commodities but before I start I just want to remind
those who attended the webinar I held for Invast on 24 June at 7PM what my
overall thoughts were on the Australian dollar. I made the call that I think the
currency will be heading back towards the mid 80 cent range over the next
one to three years. At the time that I made the comments, some of those on
the webinar questioned by reasoning, my charts and my conviction. I made
the admission that in the short term the currency could rally to as high as the
mid-90s range but then would be met with stiff resistance.
6. 66
I hope you enjoy this month’s outlook reports and I look forward to hearing from you at the
webinar on 29 July at 7PM.
Regards,
Peter Esho
Editor – Invast Insights
Outlook for energy – oil and natural gas
If you have been reading the past few reports you would know very well that we remain bullish on
energy prices for the remainder of this year and next year. If you have missed our recent reports I
suggest you go and read them right now. There is too much content to repeat and if you don’t
know the context of what we have been saying you will find it very difficult to understand my
outlook for the new financial year. So to ensure you are not lost – please read:
Invast Insights Issue 40
Invast Insights Issue 39
Invast Insights Issue 38 (probably the most important one of the three)
7. 77
The two charts below are very important in reaffirming our bullish view on energy over the next year.
8. 88
One of the things which we have been stressing about is the impact that the
recent violence in Iraq has on oil supply and sentiment in the market. In the
three reports which I asked you to read above, we spell out the fact that Iraq is
not the most important source of energy supply but that the geopolitical
environment there spells problems for the whole region and the potential flow
on effect on the world’s largest supplier of oil – Saudi Arabia.
One of the things that caught my eye this week was a report via Al Arabiya
last week. BBC reports that “al-Arabiya TV reported that Saudi Arabia had
deployed 30,000 soldiers along the 900km (560-mile) frontier after Iraqi forces
withdrew. The Saudi personnel were fanning out along the border to prevent
attacks by jihadist-led Sunni rebels, it said. On Wednesday, King Abdullah
discussed Iraq and the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant
(Isis) with US President Barack Obama in a telephone conversation.”
9. 99
The one thing that keeps us up at night is the prospect of the jihadist movement
flowing down into Saudi Arabia and no doubt sending a shock throughout global
markets. This event will have the real prospect of sending oil higher, perhaps by
as much as 20-30%. Eventually the fears will be calmed, the United States knows
that a blow out in oil price is the single largest risk to its economic recovery. But
energy traders are no fools, they will respond quickly if the regime in the world’s
largest oil producing country falls. The Saudi regime is not a freely democratically
elected system. The impact will be much different to Ukraine, Russia and the
wrangling in Europe.
We’re not expects on geopolitics and we don’t know how this will pan out but we
have been writing for weeks now that the situation in Iraq is serious because of
the potentially signalling effects on other more critical parts of the energy
market. If you read the BP Statistics you will see just how important the Persian
Gul region is to the amount of total seaborn oil traded on a daily basis.
10. 1010
Last week we wrote “Brent has failed to rally above US$115 on what we consider to be fairly
significant news in Iraq. It will most likely find support at around US$110 or thereabouts
before resuming a higher move sometime later in this calendar year.”As I write, the Brent
crude price is doing exactly just that and finding support at US$110 which I think will hold.
Don’t be caught off guard, there is a real potential for oil to move higher this year.
11. 1111
Outlook for metals – copper, silver and gold
Our view on gold and silver is very different to our view on copper and other industrial
commodities. We view the first two as commodity currencies which are driven by different
factors. In December last year I called a floor in the gold price as the market was becoming
overly bearish, I said it’s time to start buying and tipped Newcrest Mining (NCM) as a good
consideration.
Since then Newcrest shares are up 41% and the gold price is looking fairly comfortable
above US$1300 where I think it will stabilise for the next few years. You can watch my call
on Bloomberg TV from December by clicking the image to the left, my reasons haven’t
changed.
Also on gold, we wrote fairly extensively in Invast Insights Issue 39 about the impact higher
energy prices have on the overall cost of production in gold. We think high energy prices will
support the gold price at current levels because the marginal cost of producing an ounce of
gold continues to rise in line with higher employment and energy labour costs.
12. 1212
We wrote “With that in mind we continue to see upward pressure on energy prices to be a major boost for the
gold price. The gold to oil ratio is a very popular trade among veteran traders to see the relationship reverting
back to the mean average somewhere near 15x. The ratio calculates how many barrels of oil an ounce of gold
can purchase. We can take the relationship back more than 60 years through the following chart to see the
peaks and troughs brought about by wars and other geopolitical events which caused a shock to the
relationship. “
Our view on copper and industrial metals is a little less certain. It is very good to see that copper has once
again held the US$3/lb level very convincingly after testing it over recent months. We think US$3/lb is very
much a line in the sand, the industry cannot cope with any price below this level regardless of what analysts
think demand is doing. At the end of the day countries like China and India need to continue developing and
copper is crucial part of that development. India is still behind China in its anticipated copper consumption
cycle so there is major demand. Countries like the United States are also key consumers of copper as their
economies improve, even if this is falling as a proportion of previous consumption patterns.
We think it’s probably too early to get excited about copper but if we do see US$3.30/lb becoming the next
support level over the following months, there will be a case for copper to enter into a bull market and start
charging towards US$3.60-65/lb before a possible charge to US$4/lb. We’re just not sure on our timeframe
here, we’re fairly confident that we will eventually see these levels but with so much disappointment and
distortion to the copper price recently we think it will be premature to go out on a limb with respect to timing.
13. 1313
Below is a 30 minute chart as of the time of writing, we want to highlight the short term
price action and positive momentum. The upper limit of this chart is just below US$3.29/lb
so we need to see that region being taken out before we get excited. So in a nutshell,
US$3/lb is a major confirmed support level but we need momentum above US$3.30/lb to
call the next phase up towards US$4/lb.
Image: Copper price 30 minute chart via Invast MT4 platform
14. 1414
Outlook for bulk commodities – iron ore and coal
Because the copper price has still not confirmed a major move higher, we aren’t sure that
iron ore will either. Copper is the best lead indicator for all other industrial commodities and
just as copper has bottomed at around US$3/lb, we think iron ore has found solid support at
US$90 per tonne. Having said this, iron ore stocks have been completely sold off in recent
months and will be reporting production numbers into July which could surprise the market.
The actually earnings numbers will be negatively impacted when full reporting takes place in
August, but most of this is reflected in the market at current levels. For those with a higher
tolerance of risk, the following iron ore names have the greatest operating leverage should
prices bounce back above US$100 per tonne.
15. 1515
It’s difficult to call a bottom in these stocks given the way that the iron ore price
has fallen but we think they should at least find some limited support as the
market rises. Investors will be looking at diversifying outside of banks and
financials which have been a very heavily crowded space. What the iron ore
stocks need to see in order to sustain any improvement in their shares is an iron
ore price above US$100 per tonne, considering that the industry is producing at
an all in basis somewhere near the US$80 per tonne once adjustments are made.
We don’t place too much credence on the cash costs which are often quoted.
Our view on coal is probably the least exciting. The commodity cannot be easily
traded at a spot level and exposure on the stock market is difficult – there aren’t
too many independent pure play coal producers left on the market with low
sovereign risk and producing a decent enough level to justify the attention. There
are some names but we can count these on one hand. Best to ignore the space all
together and focus on the more liquid opportunities.
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Trading ideas
Watching copper for a break through US$3.30/lb is probably the one key thing on
our list. Copper can be traded on a spot basis, the market is fairly liquid and we
might see more volatility over the next year. Gold is popular but we think will be
fairly flat in terms of pricing. Brent is now doubt finding support at US$110 per
barrel as stated above and then will consolidate before popping up higher on
event risk – maybe Saudi Arabia? Not sure yet but we are watching.
The gold to oil ratio is something we wrote about a couple of weeks ago and is
probably one of the more interesting trading ideas in the commodities space to
consider. Both commodities have a certain sense of correlation in the markets
and are strongly correlated at the operating level – whether you are a gold or oil
miner. With global central banks flooding the system with cash, we see upward
prices for both. But one will rise more than the other.
17. 1717
The gold to oil ratio is a very popular trade among veteran traders to see the relationship reverting back to the
mean average somewhere near 15x. The ratio calculates how many barrels of oil an ounce of gold can
purchase. We can take the relationship back more than 60 years through the following chart to see the peaks
and troughs brought about by wars and other geopolitical events which caused a shock to the relationship.
Image: Gold to oil ratio since WW2 via www.macrotrends.net
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At 15x the current Brent crude price, gold implies a price at US$1,710 per
ounce. Using West Texas crude as the base measure, gold implies a price of
US$1,590 per ounce. The 15x multiple isn’t an exact or precise measure but it is
merely a level which the chart above suggests is the post-war average. The
impact of higher oil prices has a huge flow on effect on global inflation and this
is what gold bugs thrive on. The correlation between both is uncanny.
Because of this, we think gold can continue to rise with the recent break
through US$1300 a potential catalyst to see it move higher. The gold to oil ratio
can be traded through Invast’s MT4 platform, it means you don’t necessarily
need to get the gold price movement correct or the price of oil correct, rather
the ability of gold to increase relative to oil (which has moved higher in recent
months) in order for the ratio to come back towards the average range of
around 15x. Timing here is important, as with many other fundamental trading
strategies.
19. 1919
We’ll talk through the gold to oil ratio in the webinar on 29 July at 7PM. If you
don’t have an Invast account or at least a demo trading account we suggest you
arrange this before the webinar so that you can be in tune with how we measure,
place and execute the trade – also through customising the charts and calculation
process.
Click on the banner below to access the full suite of July webinars.
20. 2020
Peter’s webinar will cover both the fundamental and technical outlook
going forward plus the key drivers to look out for and is expected to fill
fast. Q&A will be open straight after the webinar. Register now by clicking
the image below.
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Go to www.invast.com.au/insights to get a
complimentary 4 week trial and receive the latest
insights as they are published to our live clients.
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Disclaimer
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